作者：Michael E. O’Hanlon 布鲁金斯学会 来源：中美印象
什么是对世界人民（城市、农村、偏远山区）的最大威胁？常听到中国的崛起、俄罗斯的冒进、朝鲜的核实验、伊朗核危机、巴基斯坦与阿富汗的乱局，当然还有中东持续不息的isis威胁和种族战争。总体来看，这些冲突呈现出什么样的特点呢？结果可能会让我们大吃一惊。本文阐述了“保卫我们的城市”研究中所发现的一些关于全球冲突的趋势与特点：
1.国家间冲突的频率很低。
2.国内战争的频率更高一些，虽然自从冷战和90年代以来，国内战争的数量显著下降，但是从2011年阿拉伯之春以来，国内冲突的频率又上升了。
3.如果对公民生命安全最主要的威胁不是战争与恐怖主义，谋杀致死的人每年有400000人。
4.非洲与美国的谋杀案的发生数量是全球谋杀案发生频率的至少两倍。
5.世界上暴力冲突最少的地方是东亚与西欧。
6.近十年来，哥伦比亚及之前受战争折磨的非洲国家、东南亚的部分国家、美国的部分城市的进步最大。
7.如果我们把暴力冲突的范围扩大，摩托车车祸事件是咋成伤亡的一个很重大的因素。
8.如果这个国家想要变的更安全，必须提前为各种自然灾害（地震、干旱、疾病、核事故、基础设施失败等）做好准备。
同时，作者认为我们的居住状况也得到了极大的改善，尽管有些负面报道，但都不能否认今天的世界人民所享受的安全与繁荣程度是历史上最高的。但是，我们的发展成果是脆弱并不完整的。
What are the greatest dangers to citizens of the world’s cities, as well as its towns, villages, and rural areas? This is an important issue to understand as we approach the general election season in the United States, when candidates for the highest office in the land will have to help voters make sense of the state of violence around the world—and tell us what they would do about it.
Headlines can be deceiving. We hear about China’s rise, Russia’s adventures, North Korea’s nuclear misbehavior, the Iran nuclear deal, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and of course ISIS and civil war in the Middle East all the time. But it is also worth taking a step back to understand the broader state of violence on the planet today. Do so, and you might be surprised.
As part of a Brookings-JPMorgan Chase project that we call Securing Global Cities, we have attempted to map these trends in violence, benefiting greatly from ongoing work at European think tanks like the Peace Research Institute Oslo （PRIO） and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute （SIPRI）， the University of Maryland, and the United Nations. Here are some of the most salient facts and figures:
• Even with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s activities from Ukraine to Syria in recent years, interstate conflict remains low and mild in intensity by historical standards, thankfully. China’s activities in the South China Sea, however concerning, do not presently broach the threshold of interstate war.
• Unfortunately, the picture is more muddled for civil war. It remains less prevalent and less deadly than in the worst periods of the Cold War and the 1990s. But it has ticked up considerably since the beginning of the Arab spring in 2011, especially in the broad arc from the Sahel in Africa through the Middle East and to South Asia. Worldwide, perhaps 100,000 people a year are dying in civil wars.
• Yet war and terrorism are not the primary security threats to most people on the planet today. Notably, each year, more than 400,000 people are murdered around the globe, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
• Murder rates are highest in the Americas and in Africa, at least twice the global average. They are greatest in central and southern Africa, and from Brazil and Venezuela/Colombia to Central America and the Caribbean and Mexico.
• The least violent parts of the world include most of East Asia and Western Europe, despite the terrorism threat afflicting the latter region of late.
• The “most improved” regions in recent decades include Colombia, former war-torn African states like Angola, Mozambique, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as parts of Southeast Asia and a number major U.S. cities.
• If one broadens the lens on the definition of violence, motor vehicle accidents constitute an even bigger threat. The World Health Organization estimates that 1.2 million people a year die in such accidents worldwide.
• As cities and countries think about future security, they must bear in mind not just these current realities but the potential for catastrophe—from earthquakes, droughts, pandemics, nuclear reactor disasters, and massive infrastructural failures. In a worst case, tens of millions could suddenly be put at acute risk.
There is much to celebrate about the human condition today. Despite the headlines, life has actually never been safer or more prosperous for a higher fraction of the world’s population. But our progress is fragile, and it is of course incomplete.
The next U.S. president needs a plan for Syria, Libya, and Yemen, to be sure. But he or she also needs to address the broader challenges of urban and global security for a planet that is getting healthier and more secure but which still has a very long ways to go. A good first step is to collect and study what works in key cities and countries around the world so that we can all learn from each other, on topics ranging from breaking up gangs to corralling drug traffickers to stopping terrorism. A great deal has been learned; it is time to spread the knowledge, and emulate the best practices worldwide.
作者： Michael E. O’Hanlon
来源： http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/02-mapping-global-violence-ohanlon
来源时间：2016/6/10 发布时间：2016/6/10
旧文章ID：10576
