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中国杀手锏剑指特朗普票仓？美艾奥瓦州大豆协会对总统很失望

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作者：薛雍乐 李怡清 于潇清  来源：澎湃新闻

　　当地时间4月3日下午，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）在其网站公布了长达58页的对华征税建议清单，清单包含向约1300个独立关税项目、总额约500亿美元中国出口商品加增25%进口关税，受波及的商品从医药、航空和半导体机械等高科技行业到机械和化学品等中间产品，洗碗机、铲雪车和摩托车等消费品也在加征关税商品之列。
　　随后，中国商务部新闻发言人第一时间指出，美方不顾中方的严正交涉，毫无事实依据，公布征税建议，是典型的单边主义和贸易保护主义做法，中方强烈谴责，坚决反对。
　　4月4日下午，中国对美国迅速采取反制措施。国务院关税税则委员会决定，对原产于美国的大豆、汽车、化工品等14类106项商品加征25%的关税。实施日期将视美国政府对我商品加征关税实施情况另行公布。
　　在4日国新办举行的中美贸易有关情况吹风会上，中国财政部副部长朱光耀表示，中方的立场非常明确，我们不希望贸易战，因为结果只能是双输。朱光耀说，希望能够从双方各自的利益出发，以建设性的方式，解决好面临的问题和挑战，不要用一种任性、冲动的行为举止来对待对中美两国人民福祉如此至关重要的中美经济关系。
　　中国4日公布的征税清单上，上榜的头一名便是外界此前普遍关心的大豆。美国大豆严重依赖中国市场，六成以上的美国大豆销往中国，如果中国正式实施这一关税计划，将对美国大豆产业带来巨大影响。
　　值得注意的是，美国大豆的主要产地艾奥瓦等州，在2016年总统大选中是特朗普的“铁票仓”，艾奥瓦州有六成民众把票投给了特朗普。随着特朗普鲁莽地退出关税计划，这些特朗普的票仓正日渐动摇。
　　美国农业为特朗普关税计划买单
　　农业是特朗普的重要基本盘，如今却将成为特朗普政府鲁莽的贸易行动的牺牲品。
　　4月4日下午，针对美国的关税计划，中国对美国迅速采取反制措施。国务院关税税则委员会决定，对原产于美国的大豆、汽车、化工品等14类106项商品加征25%的关税。公告称，实施日期将视美国政府对我商品加征关税实施情况另行公布。
　　此前，艾奥瓦州参议员厄内斯特表示，美国农民已经生活困窘，如果中国对美国农产品加征关税，将伤害当地的农业经济。如今这一悲观的前景，正在因为特朗普政府行为成为现实。
　　艾奥瓦州大豆协会首席执行官里兹（Kirk Leeds）3月23日对澎湃新闻（www.thepaper.cn）表示，对特朗普准备对中国产品加征关税的决定也表示担忧和失望。他说，不希望政治行为干扰过去几十年间美方与在中国的关键伙伴努力经营的贸易关系。
　　六成以上的美国大豆销往中国。《华尔街日报》日前指出，美国每年向中国出售124亿美元的大豆。而据中国海关数据，2017年中国前三大的大豆进口国分别为巴西、美国和阿根廷，进口量分别为5093、3285、658万吨。这意味着，美国的大豆，对中国而言并非不可替代。
　　美国大豆协会4月3日在其官方推特上警告说，目前巴西已经是中国最大的大豆供应国，并且正在提升其运输体系以满足中国的庞大需求。美国承受不起丧失这一关键市场份额的代价。
　　4月1日美国艾奥瓦州诺克斯维尔县地方电台的新闻主管罗伯特·伦纳德在《纽约时报》撰文，表达了对特朗普贸易行为可能给该州农业带来灾难的忧虑。
　　文章引述几位每天与农场主打交道的银行家的说法指出，在目前商品价格低廉且即将实施各项关税的情况下，艾奥瓦州约一成农场会在今年倒闭，明年再倒一成。这些银行家还分享了近日艾奥瓦州大型农业公司收购财务困难的小型农场消息，还有人把近况与上世纪80年代当地农场危机相提并论，当时约有1万名业主失去他们的农场。
　　文章对特朗普提出警告称，艾奥瓦州在2016年总统大选中，有超过六成居民支持特朗普总统，他们不关心特朗普的绯闻、与俄罗斯的关系，也不关心白宫幕僚的种种丑闻，但自从特朗普上月宣布对钢铝课征关税以来，当地人无论是共和党或民主党，都非常关注特朗普在经济上的作为。
　　在国务院新闻办4日下午举行中美贸易问题吹风会上，美国CNN记者问及中方公布的清单中首先包含美国大豆等农产品是否旨在精确性打击特朗普总统的票仓，中国财政部副部长朱光耀回应说，用所谓“301条款”、“国家安全”理由，来处理经济问题，最后会损害美国自身，损害中国，也损害全世界的利益。在这种情况下，我们被迫作为反制行动提出了相关的产品目录，提出的这种目录和相关顺序是有依据的。
　　朱光耀表示，美国的大豆对中国的出口占美国全部出口大豆的62%。美国种植大豆的农民是希望中美经济关系友好发展的，因为他们可以从健康发展的中美经济关系中受益。他介绍说，美国种植大豆的农民和美国大豆协会这两天通过各种形式，包括自费在美国的媒体发声，要求特朗普总统和美国行政当局，维护来之不易的美中经济关系。
　　美科技产业：关税计划只会适得其反
　　美国贸易代表办公室的清单列出后，美国政府将于5月15日就此举行公开听证会，美国公司也可在5月22日之前对关税提议提出反对。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道称，此后增收关税何时生效尚不清楚。
　　《纽约时报》报道称，此次特朗普政府针对的主要是包括《中国制造2025》规划在内的有利于中国产业政策的商品。加征关税可能会提高美国制造业的成本，因为这些美国企业进口的机械及高科技零部件可能属于被征关税的产品之列。
　　据《华尔街日报》报道，除了高附加值产品外，被加征关税的还包括洗碗机、电视机、汽车零部件等消费品，但不包括衣服、鞋子、手机和家具，因为这些商品涨价可能会引发美国广大消费者不满。
　　特朗普政府拟对中国加征关税的决定在美国国内引起了异议。《纽约时报》3日报道称，尽管美国的企业和商业团体过去经常抱怨中国限制美国进入科技、媒体和金融等有价值的市场参与竞争，但在特朗普提出了一系列强硬贸易措施之后，美国产业看似统一的战线出现了裂痕。
　　美国信息技术产业理事会（Information Technology Industry Council）总裁加菲尔德（Dean Garfield）称，从历史经验看，这些关税计划不但无效，而且会适得其反；征收高额关税会推高美国国内科技产品价格，对美国消费者不利。
　　《纽约时报》报道称，美国去年对中国出口额最高的是飞机和飞机零部件，总额超过160亿美元。由于美国此次公布的加征关税波及航空业，所以美国相关企业担心，中国可能会针对美国同等产业予以回击。
　　美国企业贸易组织“商业圆桌“发表声明称，美国单边对中国商品加征关税，却没有制定长期战略，只会伤害美国企业、工人和普通家庭。该组织建议说，美国政府应该和盟友一起以其他方式来应对与中国的贸易摩擦，而不是严重伤害美国自身的经济。
　　中国与全球化智库（CCG）主任王辉耀3月27日在“中国国际电视台与全球化智库战略合作协议签署仪式暨高端论坛”间隙接受澎湃新闻采访时表示，现在全球价值链已经深入到全球的每个角落，任何的贸易战都是“杀敌一千自损八百”，很难想象贸易战会继续恶化下去。
　　中国社会科学院美国问题专家吕祥4日接受澎湃新闻采访时也表示，在刚刚过去对2018年第一季度，美国股市、债市和汇市均处于剧烈且方向不明的波动状态。如果“贸易战”真正发生，这样的波动势必演变为不可控的经济危机局面。在此意义上可以说，这场“贸易战”如果发生，将注定演变为一场“经济战”，势必对美国的经济基本面造成烈度极高的震荡。
　　美国发动对华贸易战，不只是为了钱
　　尽管在特朗普最初宣布将对中国商品加征关税时美国国内就出现了不小的反对声浪，但美国政府仍在按照既定时间表继续推进其关税计划。在经济之外，其背后也存在美方的政治和战略考量。
　　特朗普3日早些时候表示，美国打算与中国保持良好关系，但不得不对贸易逆差采取一些非常重大的行动。特朗普还称，这是他竞选时就说过的。
　　研究国际经济问题的上海交通大学国家战略研究中心客座研究员、上海外国语大学欧盟研究中心常务副主任忻华对澎湃新闻表示，特朗普发起的对华“贸易战”并不仅关于钱：除了要改变美国的贸易逆差，更要对中国进行全方位防范。
　　此外，忻华指出，特朗普也希望借助“贸易战”，弥合全球化下美国贫富差距加大所带来的愈发尖锐的社会矛盾和政治结构变化。改变“分蛋糕”的方式是特朗普对其核心选民——美国“蓝领”阶层的最重要承诺，因此即使发动“贸易战”有可能会失败，特朗普出于现实考虑还是这么做。
　　中美间的结构性差异发生变化是特朗普政府强硬贸易政策的一大原因。随着中国经济发展和产业技术的升级，美国曾经引以为傲的比较优势已不再显著。
　　吕祥对澎湃新闻表示，此次产品清单锁定了“有利于包括《中国制造2025》规划在内的中国产品”，这表明，此次基于所谓“301调查”拟出台的对华贸易制裁措施，其实质的考量在于美国试图以“贸易战”方式阻断中国现代制造业向高端发展的道路。
　　吕祥说，在美国国内，以纳瓦罗等人为代表的一批人已将中国锁定为美国的战略对手，期望以极端的贸易措施来压制中国的发展趋势。
　　王辉耀此前也对澎湃新闻表示，中美贸易摩擦背后有很多深层次原因，尤其是一个新崛起的大国如何与一个守成大国更好的相处与矛盾控制。
　　如果贸易战回到了之前相互遏制的状态，放任这种情绪的蔓延，对两国的心理影响都是很大的，对政府和企业都会有负面的影响。贸易战虽然只直接关系到500亿的额度，但是它带来的连锁反应很难估量，因此应该得到控制。
　　王辉耀表示，下一步合理的方式是双方应该开辟一些新的合作蓝海，比如电子贸易、服务贸易、高科技等领域，发出一些理性的声音，相信中美都有智慧、有能力解决好现在的局势。

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/4

旧文章ID：15819

特朗普对中国挥舞关税大棒，美国普通百姓将受到哪些反冲

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作者：南博一  来源：澎湃新闻

　　日益升级的中美贸易战将给美国消费者带来不能承受之痛。
　　美国道琼斯旗下新闻网站“市场观察”（MarketWatch）指出，这场贸易战可能令美国零售商从中国进口电子产品变得更加昂贵，意味着美国消费者需支付的价格也将随之上涨，美国消费者的钱包将不可避免的受到冲击。
　　尽管一部分商品因为中国消费者需求减少或导致美国生产商库存过剩，可能暂时出现价格下降，但是大部分人都认为，在红酒和坚果这些东西上省出几毛钱难以补偿整体经济遭受的冲击。
　　关税或推高假日购物成本
　　特朗普的关税计划讲给美国消费者的假日购物带来坏消息。美国零售商从中国进口电子产品变得更加昂贵，这意味着消费者需支付的价格也将随之上涨。事实上，此类商品的价格甚至在中国和美国宣布新关税之前就可能显现出上涨势头了。
　　美国百森商学院（Babson College）经济学教授肯特·琼斯（Kent Jones）称，如果零售商预料到供应短缺的局面，那么他们可能现在就开始提价了。
　　当特朗普政府考虑将另一类似政策，即“边境调节税”作为其税改计划的一部分时，全美零售商联合会(National Retail Federation)计算得出，仅在政策实施的第一年，普通美国家庭的平均支出就高达1,700美元。
　　个别产品价格下降得不偿失
　　对于美国一些消费者来说，不幸之中的一丝安慰是某些产品的价格可能下降。由于对猪肉、坚果及其他食品加征关税，中国消费者对这些商品的需求可能减少，从而可能导致美国生产商出现库存过剩。
　　这些关税措施可能会损害那些严重依赖海外出口市场的美国农场主及其他生产商。全美零售商联合会政府关系高级副总裁戴维·弗伦奇（David French）称，坚果从种植到收获的周期长达数年，一旦到了上市时间，生产商就无法轻易减少已经创造出来的供应。
　　不过，2014年俄罗斯曾对美国禽肉产品进行制裁，但美国消费市场上鸡肉价格仅在短时间内小幅下降。
　　华盛顿非营利性研究机构彼得森国际经济研究所研究员、雪城大学经济学教授玛丽·拉芙蕾（Mary Lovely）称，对于一些消费者来说或许能节省一些支出，但大部分人都认为在红酒和坚果这些东西上省出几毛钱难以补偿整体经济遭受的冲击。
　　劳动力市场可能出现连锁反应
　　如果历史可以借鉴，中美最新的贸易争端对美国工人来说不会有好结局。根据消费行业贸易行动联盟的报告，2002年初小布什政府对进口钢铁征收至多30%的关税后，约20万名美国制造业工人失业。
　　当时美国钢铁业的工人仅有19.7万人左右。彼得森国际经济研究所研究人员估计，那次关税行动只保护了钢铁行业3000-10000个就业岗位。琼斯说：“再这样干一次，结局还是一样的。”
　　据美国《弗雷斯诺蜂报》报道，中国刚刚宣布的关税措施已经引起了柑橘和坚果农户的担忧，他们担心无法找到替代市场来弥补失去中国业务的损失。
　　但拉芙蕾警告称，中美之间酝酿的贸易战不仅仅会给制造业和农业带来就业损失。如果价格上涨导致零售商销售额下降，那么服务业工人也可能会感受到这场贸易争端的冲击。
　　拉芙蕾表示，从事市场营销、通信或在苹果公司门店工作的员工可能会失业。如果中美贸易减少导致美国港口活动下降，那么港口工人可能也会失业，尤其是西海岸地区。拉芙蕾说：“此事不仅仅事关工厂工人。”

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/4

旧文章ID：15818

钟声：美方止损的唯一出路是悬崖勒马

《中美印象》转发
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作者：钟声  来源：人民日报

　　美国率先把手放在启动贸易战的按钮上，一副威胁、恫吓的蛮横样子。但是，中国绝对不可能怕！中国国务院关税税则委员会4月4日下午宣布，对原产于美国的大豆、汽车、化工品等14类106项商品加征25%的关税。这是中国针对美国于当地时间4月3日宣布拟对500亿美元中国商品加征关税的坚决回击。美国被一股狂傲的戾气笼罩着，显然低估了贸易战必然给自身带来的痛，但现实可以让它足足领教一下。
　　美国近来举着贸易保护主义大棒表演，激起世界一片讨伐之声。不可思议的是，美国政府却刻意捂起耳朵，甚至颇为自鸣得意地在自损实力的轨道上又迈出了一大步。这一次，美国根据其301调查结果公布拟加征关税的中国商品清单，高调宣示了对其所作国际承诺的背叛、对国际贸易规则的践踏。历史的一页曾经留下这样的记录：1994年美国批准世界贸易组织协定时，美国总统向国会提交行政行动声明，承诺不能通过301调查来单边认定其他国家是否违反世贸规则；1998年，欧盟将美国的301调查措施诉诸世贸组织，美国又作出国际承诺，严格按照世贸组织争端解决的程序处理相关贸易纠纷。如今，美国政府却选择避开世贸组织，单方面威胁进行贸易制裁，无异于冲自己抽了一记耳光。
　　令人费解的是，美国现政府的辞典中，“合作共赢”这样一个足以带来利益的关键概念似乎已经被抹去了，而“经济侵略”这类异常激烈的措辞却在在皆是。美国不停地向中国泼脏水，把贸易赤字、就业下滑等问题归咎于中国等贸易伙伴身上。作为世界第一大经济体，美国莫名其妙地自诩为国际合作的“受害者”。可是谁都能看出来，美国这层“被害妄想症”外衣包裹的不过就是企图将“占便宜”极大化的生意经，给其通过单边措施威胁他国获得好处找借口。
　　凡事都得讲理，美国却不然。美国政府想方设法扒出一些根本讲不通的道道儿挑事——明明是其内因造成的困境，却冲着外因找借口，如此南辕北辙，美国显然已失却了方向。
　　比如，宣称中国制造业的崛起损害了美国利益。这完全站不住脚。美国制造业就业人数比例已连续65年呈下降趋势，从1953年的32%下降到2017年的8.5%。中国2001年加入世贸组织时，这一比例已经下降至12%。正如耶鲁大学高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇所指出的，从长期看，美国制造业就业人数的变化，反映的是技术变革的强大影响和供应链的日益全球化。与其指责他国，不如好好审视自身经济结构失衡、活力下降的根源，早点对症下药。
　　再如，辩称中国技术创新能力得益于“强制性技术转让”。这更是可笑的“被害妄想症”。外国企业在华投资是完全基于市场的自愿行为，中国没有任何法律规定外国企业必须转让技术给中国合作伙伴。
　　中国正坚定不移地实施创新发展战略，“中国制造2025”将推动中国从制造业大国迈向制造业强国。中国创新能力、制造业水平的提升，不是为了打败或取代美国，而是为了让中国人民过上更好的生活，进而为世界带来更多的利好。美国试图以增加贸易壁垒的方式打压中国高新技术产业，殊不知，这种跑不过别人就使绊子的做法不仅不可能得逞，还会让美国在经济发展和科技进步方面错失机遇。正如美国通用电气和高盛等行业巨头以及一些农业公司表达的焦虑——太平洋两岸的关税和投资限制会导致美国无缘于世界上最赚钱、增长最快的市场。亦如美国科技和投资等行业的公司发出的叹息——美国政府采取的措施旨在帮助它们，但最终可能会对它们几十年建立起来的供应链造成无法弥补的损害。
　　没有哪个国家可以作美国自身经济问题的替罪羊。如果美国看不明白这一点，不惜两败俱伤，执意大打贸易战，中国肯定有实力也有决心奉陪到底。如果美国愿意谈，中国也有充分诚意，但一切谈判必须在平等协商、相互尊重的基础上。
　　中方决不会屈服于美方的无理施压，美方止损的唯一出路是悬崖勒马。

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/5

旧文章ID：15817

美国对华战略发生了重大改变，这不是特朗普一个人的兴之所至，这一点我们要有清醒认知

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作者：吴鹏飞  来源：吴鹏飞手机报

　　中美关系，是当今世界上最重要的国际关系，没有之一。中美两国如何相处，决定了世界的格局、走势，但这取决于双方如何定位彼此的关系。说实话，目前美国实力还在中国之上，因此，中美关系的主要定义者，应该还是美国。美国如何看中国，是值得我们关注的大问题。
　　近年来，美国对中国的崛起，一直心怀戒备，满腹狐疑，经历了一个犹豫、彷徨期，在美国的知识界、政界、新闻界，要求遏止中国发展的声音逐渐增大，对中国的敌意有所增加。中国意识到了这个问题，一直在努力释放善意、诚意，一直在努力劝说美国精英们，延续几十年来两国合作互利共赢的路子。
　　但很显然，美国的精英们没有接受这个意见。这倒不是他们因为有老大的心理优势，不愿意接受中国来定义两国的关系。而是他们从自身国家利益考虑，从国际政治的现实权衡，从美国长远利益考量，得出了相反的结论。近来美国的政策，传递了一个明确的信号，那就是，美国的对华战略发生了重大转变。他们认为，美国几十年来的对华政策失败了，美国精英就此实际上达成了高度一致。
　　因为他们发现，今天的中国总体经济实力已经势不可挡地超过了西方，2014年世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际重要组织以购买力平价计算，认定中国的经济总量已经超过了美国，只不过中美两国都不愿意承认而已。科技上，中国也在所有领域赶超西方。五百年来未有之大变局已经出现，这是第一次有一个非西方大国对西方的全面碾压。
　　他们还发现，中国在世界上的外交影响力大有超过西方之势。过去只有西方才有实力召集各国政要聚首，但中国举办的一带一路峰会，全球政党对话，每次都有120个以上的国家政要参会，一带一路、人类命运共同体等中国方案与中国概念，也多次写入了联合国的文件，受到全世界的普遍欢迎与支持。西方登高一呼应者云集的时代，有点一去不复返的感觉。
　　他们更发现，中国的发展模式对后进国家、转型国家、欠发达国家产生了不可抗拒的吸引力，中国道路为世界提供了另一个发展选项，西方优越论、西方道路唯一论走下神坛。相反，在应对气候变化、捍卫贸易自由、基础设施建设、改善民生、减少贫困、发展人权等方面，中国大有被拥戴为全球领袖的态势。
　　近年来，欧美国家的智库、媒体、政客空前一致地对“中国威胁”发出集体呐喊，美国作为西方世界的老大，感受更为深切。美国精英们越来越形成了一个共同的中国观，那就是中国成功意味着西方的失败，他们对中国经济发展、外交影响、文化传播、制度魅力、模式感召、道路自信充满了恐慌，有一种阻止中国发展的集体自觉。
　　所以，才有了中国不断迁就，让步，妥协，帮助美国缓和半岛局势，甚至以中美夫妻论安慰美国，千方百计搞好中美关系，而美国却变本加厉为难中国的局面。在一个中国原则、南海归属、钓鱼岛搁置争议这些原本美日与中国早有定见、定论的问题，美国重新出现返生，原因就在这里。南海本来蔚蓝的海水，美国却使出吃奶的劲要把它搅浑，道理也在这里。
　　特离谱最近一会儿不停表扬感谢中国，一会儿高高举起贸易制裁大棒（因为贸易逆差导致美元大规模外流，美国没钱花），一会儿限制中国在美投资不要中国的钱进入，一会儿又派人来推销国债找中国借钱，一会儿又联合法德要形成对华贸易统一战线等等，看上去是特离谱很神经质，实际上这一切，都不是美国总统一个人所能顾左右的。
　　这里面固然有个人的因素在，但他反映的是整个美国乃至整个西方精英层的普遍焦虑和无奈。美国无理取闹、故意搅局、借题发挥，所有的借口都很好笑，但背后的遏华战略意图，确实很严峻的，值得我们重视。我还断言，美国未来三十年将连续出现对华强硬的总统，就算有笑面虎出任总统，那也是表面的，因为两国在根本上，确实已经是竞争关系。
　　在经济、贸易、科技、军事、政治、文化、外交、金融等领域，同等级的对手，面对同一市场，确实存在此消彼长的效应，当然也有彼此依存的关系。当中国的人权提案在联合国人权委员会几乎全票通过，只有美国一家反对的时候，朋友们，美国反对的不是提案本身，而是反对这个叫中国的提案者。对比上世纪八九十年代，美国谴责中国人权状况的提案屡屡通过的场景，美国内心的落寞、痛苦、不甘，是人都可以理解。
　　中美合作当然也是必须的，但竞争为主，合作为辅。特离谱说的已经很明白了，在符合美国利益的情况下，美国会选择与中国合作。这就像战争与和平，战争是有人类以来的永恒主题，和平则是军事均势的代称。任何军事平衡一旦被打破，就意味着战争，所以老一辈革命家说落后就要挨打，发展是硬道理，如此才能保住球籍，是过来人的肺腑之言，不是幽默和玩笑。
　　亲爱的读者朋友们，如果你注意到，奥巴马离职前签署了提升美台军事交流层级的文件；如果你注意到，美国参众两院无异议通过“台湾旅游法”（这个法案的名称显示，美国这些精英耍无赖时该多么卑鄙，这个法案实际上应该叫“与台湾恢复官方往来法”），打破40多年来的建交原则；如果你注意到，美国两党都支持“国防授权法”考虑派军舰访台，你就可以得出结论，美国精英们一致选择了对华不友好政策。
　　在这样的背景下，特离谱的国家安全战略报告，将中国与俄罗斯并列为对美国的三大挑战之一、之首（另两个挑战分别是国际恐怖主义、朝鲜和伊朗核问题），将中国看成是传播对立价值观的竞争对手，也就是将中国列为敌手，并不令人意外。我们很多智库学者，坚持认为这是特离谱个人夸张搞怪，一厢情愿地认为并不会真正影响美国对华政策，这是小孩子的见识。可笑的是，中国这样愚蠢、幼稚、自以为是的专家，还真不是很少。
　　我看过特离谱就职、国情咨文、国安报告发表时的演讲，对方已经明明白白、完完整整阐述了他的价值观和对华政策。可以明确看出，美国的对华战略、特离谱的对华政策已经成型，是先有前者才有后者。特离谱离谱之处就在于，他的身边，现在已经聚集了大批鹰派中的鹰派，力主撕毁伊核协议、对朝动武的、反对一中原则的人物居然成了总统的国家安全助理。
　　大家都在问，邻国年轻首脑突访中国的深层原因是什么，喏，特离谱身边聚集了好战分子，他们不会像历届政府的政治精英那样考虑国家利益，把朝鲜当成恫吓日韩、保持美国存在、向日韩摊派防务经费的取款机。这些鹰派分子反而是意识形态的偏执狂，他们可能不是为国家利益，而是从某些政治观点出发，鼓动政治商人特离谱为了青史留名，而悍然动武。
　　邻国年轻的首脑，确实具有政治智慧。他感觉将面对美朝峰会的重大风险，要么在自身安全不能得到保证的情况下，签下城下之盟；要么达不成协议特离谱起身走人，面临动武。邻帅小伙子这次判断，因为换了一群疯子，动武是完全可能的了。于是，就像他父亲当年南斯拉夫遭到两个多月空中轰炸，担心自身安全紧急访问中国，重申两国传统友谊一样，来走亲戚了。
　　翻开父子两次来访的新闻，内容惊人相似。值得玩味的是，在这关键时刻，中国欣然接受来访，并隆重接待。这表明，中国在东北亚的政策，也发生了微妙变化。中国发出了明确信号，只能谈判解决问题，绝对不永许在中国家门口撒泼。一方面中国将劝邻国减少挑衅行动不给对方借口，另一方面中国将联合俄韩日阻止美国人的动武冲动，不能让美国横行无忌。
　　我的观点是，既然美国已经确定了不友好的对华战略，中国也应该有自己的因应之策。与邻国再度携手，就反映了这种战略思维。实际上，中国在坚定维护中美关系大局，力求双方不撕破脸的情况下，也在给美国颜色看。而且，一直以来，中国都在按照自己的国家与国际战略向前发展，没有回避与美国的战略应对和战术碰撞。
　　贸易战问题，中国在准备谈判妥协的同时，也表示要奉陪到底；人民币国际化，最近又有令美国坐卧不安的举措，上海人民币石油国际期货交易正式开张，这意味着美元不是石油交易的唯一结算货币了；南海美舰一旦出现，立即驱逐；台湾问题，明确表态，美舰到访之日就是武统之日，我相信，大陆正在酝酿反制美国在台海滋事生非的应对方案，也包括武统。
　　一带一路，是中国式的一种互利共赢理念下的国际化，与损人利己的西方主导的国际化有别云泥；世界政党高层对话，是探讨与交流各国治国理政经验的高端平台，目的是帮助每个国家找到自己的发展模式和国家道路；军事与科技上，中国实力的急剧增加和跃进，等等，都可以看出，中国有自己的追求，中国自己的梦是中华复兴，中国的世界梦是人类命运共同体。
　　中国希望和平崛起，中国希望建立与西方大国的新型大国关系，中国希望以最大诚心善意对待一切国家，但是，但是，但是，如果有人试图阻扰、阻断、阻止中国的发展，对不起，中国的核武器、英雄的人民解放军、强大的人民币、中国庞大的市场、团结在一起的中国人民都不是吃素的。热情接待邻国年轻首脑来访，就是要传达这个信号，我认为美国人读懂了。

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/1

旧文章ID：15816

阎学通：中美贸易冲突，中国如何出招

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作者：小清  来源：人文清华讲坛（ID：renwen_Tsinghua）

　　2018年3月23日凌晨，美国打响了对华贸易战的第一枪，美国总统特朗普签署备忘录，宣布将采取措施对价值600亿美元的中国产品加征25%的关税。几个小时后，中国开始反击，商务部发布了针对美国的中止减让产品清单，拟对美国部分进口产品加征关税，该清单涉及金额约30亿美元。
　　就当人们疑问贸易冲突缘何而起之际，清华大学国际关系研究院中外关系定量预测组早在2017年10月底就已经预测中美贸易冲突将会继续加剧。中美贸易战会带来什么影响？双方会不会发生冷战？中国处理冲突的手段是否要强硬？美国还会在哪些方面制造矛盾？中国如何出牌？
　　4月2日，人文清华讲坛就这些问题独家采访了世界和平论坛秘书长、清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通教授。
　　阎学通教授是中国国际关系学界倡导科学方法论和预测国际形势的著名学者，曾成功预测陈水扁上台、陈水扁会连任、蔡英文会被当选、英国脱欧、等众多“黑天鹅”事件。
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　　中美发生贸易冲突比冷战好
　　人文清华：贸易战是一个不可避免的事情吗？
　　阎学通：首先我们预测的时候就不用“贸易战”这个词，为什么？因为什么是“贸易战”，它没有一个明确的标准，什么叫“贸易战”，什么不是“贸易战”，关税惩罚到什么水平算“贸易战”，是按比例，还是按绝对额？所谓贸易战，我的理解就是贸易冲突比较严重，但是把它形容成“贸易战”之后，就容易使大家产生很多联想，火药味特别浓，我们认为中美之间发生贸易冲突应该是正常现象，是必然的，不发生不符合规律。我们认为不会发生冷战，因为冷战的内容和主要形式是代理人战争，发生贸易战很有可能有助于避免冷战发生。
　　人文清华：所以你们判断发生经济上的摩擦之后反而不会产生冷战？
　　阎学通：冷战是指进行代理人战争，如果双方用贸易手段相互进行竞争，那意味着双方不愿用战争手段进行竞争，这不是好事吗？
　　/ 02 /
　　解决问题不在于手段是否强硬，关键在于是否能维护中国利益
　　人文清华：美国做出来的"301"调查，针对中国列出了600亿美元的调查单，中国提出了30亿美元的回应。现在网上有人把这两个单子列出来了，看上去好像中国有点手软，你们怎么评价？

""

　　阎学通：4月2日中国政府又宣布了针对美国商品的128项关税报复性措施，双方实际都试图向对方展示“我不愿意完全屈服”的态度。但是从额度上来看，显然中国对美国进行制裁的额度比美国低，从这可以看出，中国比美国更不愿意采取这种手段。美国在使用手段方面比我们的主观能动性要强得多，从这个意义来讲，双方之间存在考虑用什么手段才能最大限度维护自己的利益的问题。我个人认为，中美之间用关税手段进行相互惩罚，不应该是什么大不了的事，中美双方出口都是万亿以上的级别，不管是600亿，还是几十亿，对万亿这个单位来讲都不是特别大的数字。并且这种手段也至少表明了双方不愿使用战争手段进行对抗的意愿。如果双方愿意使用贸易手段代替军事手段进行对抗，我觉得这不应该是一件坏事。
　　中国现在反复向美国表示中国不愿意与美国进行相互贸易制裁，希望通过谈判解决问题。这种做法表现了中国政府的一贯原则，就是中国不希望双方通过贸易报复手段来决出最终胜负，中国愿意通过谈判手段解决纠纷。
　　人文清华：中国表现出来不太希望采用强硬的手段，如果双方的贸易冲突不可避免，中国这样的态度会不会显得比较软弱？
　　阎学通：从国际关系的角度来讲，我们不太喜欢使用“软弱”或者“强硬”这类的词汇来描述一国外交政策，如果强硬的手段不能为本国带来利益，那么为什么要用强硬的手段呢？如果使用软弱的手段对国家有利我们为什么不用呢？我们讨论的应该是这个手段是否有效，所以我们应该讨论究竟哪个手段能够最大限度维护中国的国家利益。假如美国现在对我国进行贸易报复，我们打一个核弹过去，跟美国进行核战争，这十分强硬，可是这有意义吗？这对中国有好处吗？外交讲的是效率，讲的是能不能维护利益，而不是讲强硬不强硬。
　　再看看俄罗斯，普京目前的做法就值得商榷，我听说很多俄罗斯的专业人士在俄罗斯外交决策时就被边缘化了，他们现在介入不了决策过程。从结果来看，现在俄罗斯的政策似乎只看重是否态度强硬，而不看重这个政策是否能够维护俄罗斯国家利益。当20多个西方国家故意跟普京对抗的时候，普京面临的最大问题是：究竟是对等地驱逐这20多个国家的外交官能够维护俄罗斯的利益？还是只驱逐美国和英国的外交官，对大多数国家只做口头警告、而不做实际的行动能更大地维护俄罗斯的利益？这其实是需要专家来研究的。像普金现在这样，你驱逐我多少，我就驱逐你多少，对等报复，可能一时解气，但是我不认为这有利于俄罗斯的国家发展和国际形象以及俄罗斯老百姓在世界上的尊严。现在网上讨论外交政策时，常用“强硬”或者“软弱”这样的概念，然而“强硬”和“软弱”这样的概念对于评估外交政策成效是没有任何意义的。
　　/ 03 /
　　不要让贸易冲突超越贸易边界
　　人文清华：美国特朗普政府新任命的跟中国的谈判代表叫克莱西泽，原来美国对日本做广场协议的时候就由他主持，这样的人选对于今后美国和中国的关系会不会有一些影响？
　　阎老师：就目前来看，特朗普完全掌控了决策权，其幕僚亲信主要负责执行，他们没有如何决策的问题，只有执行得坚决和不坚决的问题。莱特希泽有应对日本方面的经验，他将这些经验用在中国身上对美国是有利的。期望美国派一个叛徒来替中国说话，这种想法没有必要。美国派谁来谈判都不重要，重要的是我们自己的外交官、我们的谈判人员得有经验、有能力。
　　人文清华：所以中国能从当年美国和日本关系当中得到什么样的经验吗？
　　阎学通：在贸易冲突上最好的经验就是让贸易冲突不超越贸易领域，现在很多人提倡中国用我们持有的美国债券来对美国进行贸易报复。这种想法最大的问题在于如果把一个贸易冲突引上金融领域，那就可能导致金融冲突进一步升级，如果不控制金融冲突升级，再让它进一步扩散到政治领域，再由政治领域蔓延到军事领域，最后进行不进行战争就成了个问题，这就是领导人要决定的事了。依我个人的观点，既然是贸易冲突就把它控制在贸易冲突之内，不让它超越贸易范围。
　　人文清华：从您的专业的角度来看，目前的状况将来的发展趋势是什么样的？中国在这样的趋势之下应该采取的措施是什么？
　　阎老师：中国跟美国的冲突肯定会越来越多，这是实力接近带来的结果，我们称之为“崛起困境”，想让实力越接近，双方矛盾还要越来越少，这是根本不可能实现的，因为这违背客观规律。学者研究的是规律，谁违背规律就只能自己惩罚自己。
　　人文清华：也就是说，中国要做好长期与美国有贸易冲突的准备？
　　阎老师：简单讲，就是中国没有短期内能够超越美国综合实力的可能性，中国在较长时间（15年）内跟美国的实力只是趋于接近，但是超越不了，我们应该基于短期内超越不了美国这一事实来考虑如何制定政策。
　　/ 04 /
　　美国会在台湾、南海等多个问题上制造争端
　　人文清华：您预测除了在经济之外，美国还有可能在哪些问题上制造矛盾？
　　阎老师：我觉得美国会在比较多的问题上制造争端，比如在台湾问题上，美国已经变相恢复了美台之间的外交关系，所谓的《台湾旅行法案》已经不再禁止双方副部级以上官员的交流。南海问题上，美国将会继续派遣军舰进行“自由航行”，所以美国会在很多领域给中国制造麻烦，这是必然的。从他维护自己的世界主导地位这点来讲，只要条件存在，他们会在诸多领域里给中国制造麻烦。
　　人文清华：想在各个方面遏制中国，其实是很难的，是吗？
　　阎学通：如果我们把中美竞争比作两人下棋对弈，那么对方想把你将死必然是对方的理性选择，出一个高招走一步棋让你很难应对，走一步棋让你输，这都是合理的现象，没有好和坏的问题。所以，从这个意义上来讲，美国当然希望遏制中国，但是他现在遏制不了，因为在全球化时代，中国的经济和军事已经织入到世界体系当中去了，这就是为什么美国现政府始终不用“遏制”这个词的原因，因为他知道这个办法是不行的。所以他现在采取的原则叫“防范”，而不是“遏制”。
　　人文清华：中国崛起的趋势也是不可避免的。
　　阎学通：中国的崛起主要取决于中国发展的内在动力，中国能不能强大取决于国内的发展，中国国内自己不发展，用不着外部遏制，就一定走向衰败，已经没有外部力量能够阻止中国强大，但中国目前绝对实力增长速度下降是个问题。
　　2018中美贸易战：
　　3月23日凌晨：美国总统特朗普签署总统备忘录称，将对中国价值高达600亿美元的商品征收惩罚性关税。
　　3月23日：中国商务部公布了对美进口产品加征关税清单，涉及金额30亿美元。
　　中国驻美大使崔天凯：中国无意和任何国家打贸易战，但如果对方挑衅，中国将“奉陪到底”。
　　中国外交部发言人华春莹：“来而不往非礼也，我们会奉陪到底。”
　　3月25日：美国财政部长姆努钦“谨慎乐观”地认为，美国可与中国达成贸易协议，从而避免执行特朗普提出的对至少500亿美元中国出口品征收关税的命令。
　　3月26日：中国商务部宣布对美国、欧盟、韩国、日本和泰国进口的苯酚进行反倾销立案调查。
　　4月1日：中国财政部关税司发布消息称，国务院关税税则委员会决定对原产于美国的部分进口商品中止关税减让义务，自2018年4月2日起实施。
　　4月3日：美国贸易代表办公室依据“301调查”结果公布拟加征关税的中国商品清单，涉及每年从中国进口的价值约500亿美元商品，主要涉及信息和通信技术、航天航空、机器人、医药、机械等行业产品。
　　针对美方刚刚公布的对华“301调查”征税建议，中国商务部新闻发言人第一时间发表谈话，表示中国坚决反对，并将于近日依法对美产品采取同等力度、同等规模的对等措施。

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/5

旧文章ID：15815

狠狠打！打出30年经济和平！中国直击美国要害：大豆、汽车、飞机全在内！

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作者：占豪  来源：占豪微信

　　中美贸易战又升级了！
　　美国特朗普政府于美东时间 4 月3 日公布了对华征税产品建议清单，涉及中国约 500 亿美元出口，建议税率为 25% ，涵盖约1300个税号的产品。
　　针对美国针对中国挑起的贸易大战，中国第一时间已经宣布“奉陪到底”，于是在美国公布后，商务部第一时间也公布对美国加征关税商品清单，对原产于美国的大豆等农产品、汽车、化工品、飞机等进口商品对等采取加征关税措施，税率为25%，涉及2017年中国自美国进口金额约500亿美元。
　　同等规模！同等金额！同等强度！中国如是兑现之前的警告！
　　不仅如此，这一次，中国对特朗普一点都不手软，直接瞄准了特朗普的票仓和政治目标！瞄准了特朗普背后的支持力量。
　　美国生产大豆的两个州是特朗普的票仓，中国进口美国大豆战美国大豆出口总量的62%，这一击重锤够狠、够给力，相信那些之前支持特朗普的豆农们会知道，他们支持的特朗普原来根本不在乎他们的利益，特朗普把他们给卖了。在这种情况下，豆农还会支持特朗普吗？
　　特朗普号称要振兴美国制造，要振兴美国汽车业，要求中国进口更多美国汽车——但是，美国要对中国发起贸易战，于是中国只能被迫反击，美国汽车业不但没有从特朗普的承诺中得到好处，反而还要失去中国这个世界上最大、最具潜力的市场。这样的特朗普，美国产业工人还会支持吗？
　　特朗普竞选，最大金主之一就是波音。然而，现在特朗普站稳脚跟了，却和中国打贸易战，让波音在与欧盟空客的竞争中处于劣势，失去未来的中国市场，波音未来还会支持特朗普吗？
　　所以，就像特朗普不顾及中国的利益一样，中国对特朗普及美国的利益则进行双反击、双杀伤！杀的是美国经济，杀得也是特朗普的票仓，当然更是杀特朗普政府的威风！在占豪看来，走到这一步，特朗普往后会更加骑虎难下！而且，未来美国妥协、让步的成本会越来越高。就像之前占豪（微信公众号：占豪）所分析的那样，面对特朗普的敲诈与碰瓷，中国这一次是一定要借题发挥、借机发力，要通过特朗普的挑衅事件，达到自己的政治目的。
　　就像之前我们在东海借日本挑衅划设防空识别区、借美菲挑衅在南海大规模“种岛”、借印度挑衅在我国洞朗地区建成较大规模的军事基地并完成军事部署一样，我们要借对手的挑衅，实现自己的政治目的。
　　那么，我们要通过特朗普挑衅中国达到什么政治目的呢？在占豪（微信公众号：占豪）看来，我们达到三个目的：
　　一、打痛美国，让美国以后再不敢和中国打贸易战。
　　这和当初新中国后打朝鲜战争一样，要让美国一朝被蛇咬十年怕井绳，要让其和中国打一次贸易战以后再也不愿意和中国打贸易战。所以，中国必须打痛美国，必须打痛特朗普，必须要让对手知难而退。我们，要打出30年的“经济和平”，要让以后的美国总统再也不敢和中国打贸易战，要让世界上其它国家更不敢和中国打贸易战！要让他们知道，只有和中国合作，才能得利！
　　二、要不断老高特朗普的妥协筹码，增加其“沉没成本”，最终让其拿更多现实合作来换取“沉没的成本”。
　　特朗普，是想敲诈中国，是想打断“中国制造2025”计划。为了达到这一目的，特朗普押上了不小的本钱。中国，需要用强硬来还击，要让特朗普不断增加政治赌注，让其骑虎难下，但最后又不得不下。
　　未来，一旦形成这样的格局，特朗普就只能用更大规模的合作来换取之前的“沉默成本”损失。如此，中国就有望在这场贸易战上打出“30年经济和平”，能让接下来无论是特朗普或其它美国总统，再不敢和中国打贸易战。
　　三、经此贸易战，奠定中国在世界上与美国平起平坐的经济大国地位。
　　中国是世界第二大经济体（按照国际货币基金组织的数据，中国在2014年9月以购买力平价计算已经超过美国成为世界第一大经济体）、世界第一大贸易国、世界第一大制造业国家、世界第一大消费市场——中国现在有很多经济第一，但中国在世界上的经济地位与美国还有很大差距。
　　在这种情况下，特朗普这次与中国打贸易战打得越凶狠，那么最后妥协中国在政治上得利越大。直白说，美国那么凶狠的贸易战，最后特朗普面对中国反击妥协了，中国打赢了。这一结果，在世界范围内的宣传效果，是中国花多少钱、花n多年时间都达不到的效果。试想，一个世界几十年的霸主，对中国发起贸易战，结果最后自己妥协战败了，那就意味着其对手至少与其力量相当，甚至比其力量更强。
　　在占豪（微信公众号：占豪）看来，这个活广告能给中国带来巨大的战略利益，这就是美国发起贸易战的代价。
　　其实，特朗普现在已经开始有些心虚了。他发推说：当你掌握了5000亿美元，你是不会输的！他的意思就是说，中国对美贸易有差不多5000亿美元，所以美国不会输！

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　　然而，特朗普错了！中美贸易战，虽然对中美伤害都挺大，但对美国和特朗普的伤害更大。道理很简单，因为制造业在中国，美国失去中国制造或从中国进口的商品有巨额税收，必然给美国带来恶性通胀。真发生恶性通胀，特朗普将干不了太久。
　　相反，对中国来说，大不了大力促进消费，大力进行基础建设投资，大力发展新经济，让更多企业摆脱对美国市场的依赖，让经济发展得更稳。但是，美国没有相应的制造业，其它国家也提供不了那么多，美国又靠什么来维系经济的稳定呢？
　　中国这一次之所以打得这么自信，就是因为中国有这样的底气，有和美国打到底的能力和决心。说白了，你美国有勇气和能力和中国打一场热战吗？朝鲜都不敢打，还和中国打？没有勇气和中国打，那搞什么飞机还打什么贸易战？老老实实大家谈判不更好？
　　所以，这一次，中国是吃定了特朗普的赌博！生意人出身就是本是再大，能和一大群真正的政治家比政治手腕吗？
　　中国这一次，一定会狠狠打！一定会打出30年的经济和平！一定会打出一个世界经济新规则出来！
　　最后，再回复一些战友的关心。有很多战友问，为什么占豪对国际大势和中国及各个国家决策总能做提前预知，有什么秘诀吗？占豪（微信公众号：占豪）想说的是：
　　一、只要你是中国立场，了解新中国后的历史和中共的历史，你就能感受到国家跳动的脉搏，就能知道怎么做是对国家最有利的，当然也就感知到国家的大方向。
　　二、当你理解了国家之间的利益和他们的利益取向，就知道他们为什么做那样的选择，在遇到什么因素下会出现怎样的变化。所以，占豪经常能分析出相关国家的策略选择。
　　三、看世界问题，要超越中国立场观察各国的立场与视角，但要坚定地站在中国立场上去，那么你就能很好地预估中国与世界的走势以及中国与其它国家博弈的方向和大致结果。
　　就像这次中美贸易战，占豪（微信公众号：占豪）认为最终结果还是妥协，美国按照中国的条件妥协。妥协后，美国相当于给中国的强大做了背书，中国会得到更多战略利益，但特朗普会得到不少现实利益。
　　而如果其它国家做壁上观，中国必然把相关国家的利益交还给美国以换取美国的战略妥协，那到时候最倒霉的将可能不是美国也不是中国，而是那些看热闹的国家！特别是像欧盟、日本这样的国家。
　　这场贸易战，中国已经狠辣出手，特朗普等着鼻青脸肿吧！而另外一些看哈哈笑的国家，估计不久的将来要满地找牙了！大象打架，旁观者断胳膊折腿很正常！

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2018/4/5

旧文章ID：15814

Seven Main Differences Between the China Dream and the American Dream

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作者：  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

At the 20th People’s Congress, President Xi Jinping expounded on the ‘Chinese dream,’ causing a heated debate to unfold. The Chinese dream is comparable to a “pair of shoes” that have been tailored solely for the Chinese people to wear—shoes that are only comfortable if the Chinese people put them on. These shoes have a youthful shine; they let you walk with wings. The best way to understand this may be to compare it with the famous ‘American dream.’

 Seven Main Differences between the Chinese Dream and the American Dream


Until now, only large countries like China and American can be ‘dreaming.’ Not every country has the necessary prerequisites to ‘dream.’ It requires seizing one’s destiny and daring to imagine. It requires the strength and confidence to realize these dreams. Only then can one ‘dream.’ Without these, a small country in the shadow of a giant will have an uneasy fate, and who can dream peacefully then? A resource-scarce country, with their economic lifeline in the hands of another, trembles with fear all day. How can they then dare to sleep without a care in the world?

Let me breakdown the contents of the ‘Chinese dream’ and ‘American dream.’

“To realize a healthy society, to build a rich democratic culture and peaceful society is a goal the country struggles to achieve. The Chinese people’s biggest hope is to realize national wealth, social development, and happiness.”  –President Xi at the close of the 20th People’s Congress

“Let all of our classes rise up, become more prosperous and happier in living the ‘American dream.’ This is our purpose now, to make our biggest contribution to the world’s ideas and well-being.” –James Truslow Adams, The Epic of America

The Chinese and American dreams are inevitably different, having been determined by their respective histories, cultures, economics, and geographies. These differences and their causes can be summarized into seven points.

One, the Chinese dream is about national prosperity. The America dream is about individual prosperity.

Compared to China, America has a huge geographic advantage. Surrounded by water on three sides, the US is easy to defend and hard to attack. A tyrant since the beginning of its history, the US has never been subjugated by another nation. Instead, the US frequently seizes the natural resources of other states. As such, they have never worried about their country’s safety. People are free to concentrate on their dreams for wealth. Since ancient times, however, China’s borders have always been in peril. Throughout history, attacks on China’s borders have never ceased and China has even been dominated a few times. Historical lessons have taught us that a country’s strength resides in its people’s ability to live and work in a peaceful environment. Therefore, the Chinese dream must, first and foremost, prioritize national strength.

Two, the goal of the Chinese dream is national rejuvenation. The goal of the American dream is individual achievement.

China is made of people from the Han ethnicity and multiple other minority groups. Together, these people make up the Chinese nation. Since ancient times, Chinese people were born and raised here, shared adversities together, have had inseparable ties, and thus have very deep feelings for this land. The people share one consensus, which is that if the ethnicity is vulnerable and subject to bullying by other nations, the individual’s dignity will be lost. If life and property cannot be protected, how can you find happiness then? America’s ethnic makeup is more complicated. Black people have been discriminated against for a long time, and although the law treats them equally now, a small incident can cause a racial conflict. America is a multi-ethnic country, without the concept of a motherland, so they can only speak about individual achievements.

Three, the Chinese dream must be realized by the Chinese people. The American dream can only be realized using the human resources of other countries.

The concept of the American dream can be traced back to the American constitution, which emphasizes the innate capabilities of people. Everyone has the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. The American dream emphasizes that no matter where you were born or what your social status is, everyone can rely on their own ability to seize opportunities for success. For many people from small European countries, these precepts were very attractive and encouraged them to take the risk of going to America. Historically, the United States repeatedly used the people of other nations to develop herself. For example, the early introduction of a large number of black people from Africa brought to the United States to engage in cultivation. In the 19th century, Chinese labor was used to build the railroads. Now, there are more laborers from Mexico and Eastern Europe doing all kinds of work while Caucasian Americans enjoy a life of leisure and playing golf all day. China, on the other hand, has 1.3 billion people and cannot rely on bringing in outsiders to develop itself.  That’s why President Xi stated, “the Chinese dream requires walking down the Chinese path,” “the Chinese dream requires using Chinese energy,” “the Chinese dream requires harnessing Chinese power.”

Four, the Chinese dream is about group harmony and happiness. The American dream is about individual freedom and happiness.

From early on, Chinese people held the concept of “homeland” and the idea of the community very strongly. Within a household, only when relations are harmonious and everyone is in good health can an individual be happy. For Chinese people, happiness is a group idea. In a family, happiness is shared; in a country, happiness is also shared.  President Xi used three shared ideas to depict the source of the Chinese dream: “shared joy can bring color to life, shared joy can make dreams come true, shared joy can move a country towards progress.” Western culture emphasizes the individual and the individual pursuit of freedom and happiness.

Five, the Chinese dream has a long history behind it. The American dream relies solely on experience.

The confidence to realize the Chinese dream comes partly from history. The Chinese nation has about 5000 years of history. China was at many times extremely strong, being the most prosperous nation in the world. The recent increase in popularity of Imperial historical dramas reflects the thoughts of the public. Western countries are worried about China’s sudden rise because of China’s history: the West believes that, historically, Chinese people have the ability to rise up. When a small country, which has never been powerful, begins yelling, other countries will regard it as a joke. When President Xi Jinping said the phrase, “to realize the Chinese nation’s great rejuvenation,” his use of the term “rejuvenation” revealed optimism and confidence. America, on the other hand, only has two to three hundred years of history. When building its nation, America relied on other nation’s resources to eventually become a superpower. The American dream is about avoiding reality and not allowing challenges to their power to arise; thus being able to continue their sweet dream.

Six, the Chinese dream combines everyone’s wisdom and effort. The American dream relies on individualism.

To realize the Chinese dream, everyone’s power and hard work must be harnessed. The Chinese dream uses everyone’s intelligence and knowledge and directs it in one direction. The Chinese dream relies on a concrete concept of China’s force and wisdom. The Chinese dream depends on the entire nation’s cooperation. Looking through history, it’s not hard to discover that China is a splendid nation, but it is also a nation that squanders and self-destructs. Often, China develops for a short period and then stalls for a period; this is why Chinese development always retreats. To realize the Chinese dream, everyone must be aware of the overarching goal. The American dream is about everyone walking down their own paths, each seeking individual goals of wealth and happiness. As such, individual accomplishments contributed to America’s power. Chinese people can accomplish great things, but they must be united in their ideas.

Seven, the Chinese dream is about the people’s glory. The American dream is for the individual’s glory.

Since the Opium Wars, foreign powers have occupied China and made Chinese people suffer. After many treaties of national betrayal and humiliation, after many huge disasters, these are all scars the Chinese people bear. In modern times, many Chinese people sacrificed their lives for their nation’s honor and security, for the people’s safety and happiness. “Today, the People’s Republic stands strong in the East,” declared General Secretary Xi Jinping. Without this painful national history, it would be hard to understand the hopes of Chinese people. Since America does not have this type of pain, America does not dream the same types of dreams. The American dream stresses individual prosperity and success, and the individual’s rise in society.

It must also be understood that just as the American dream changes, so does the Chinese dream. With social progress, people’s hopes will also change and the dreams will not remain the same.

The above analysis argues that the “Chinese Dream” is comparable to a pair of shoes tailored for the Chinese foot. Although life in China is focused on dreaming [now], it is only with action that a person’s dreams come true.

The original Chinese article can be found here.

Translated by Yang Fu.

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/4/28

旧文章ID：15813

Workers, Rise Up!

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作者：Roger Moore  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

Leaders in China must be feeling a little embarrassed about the recent hostage situation involving Chip Starnes, CEO of Florida-based Specialty Medical Supplies, who was holed up for six days in his own factory in Beijing’s Huairou District. Starnes’ workers, fearing their employer was going to shut down the factory in Beijing and move its operations elsewhere, opted to take him hostage in order to receive severance packages and, they claim, unpaid wages. The entire debacle starkly illustrates the ineffectiveness of China’s legal system. Regardless of whether their grievances are justified, workers in China have very little faith in the country’s ability to protect their rights, compelling them to take desperate measures in order to correct perceived injustices.

Behind this unfortunate reality are two important lessons that we can take away from Starnes’ kidnapping. First, although the Chinese employees chose to take the law into their own hands in this particular instance, it is telling that they decided to act with such boldness. After decades of harsh working conditions and inadequate paychecks, the workers of China are obviously no longer afraid of standing up for their rights—even if it requires taking an American executive hostage in the country’s capital.

Not unlike many recent protests, the kidnapping underscores a determination to ensure that authorities, whether they are government officials or just simply employers, guarantee certain fundamental rights. In 2011, for example, protesters in Wukan, Guangdong Province resisted illicit land seizures and official corruption, eventually forcing the resignation of the town’s officials. Similarly, in July 2012, protests in Sichuan Province over the construction of a copper alloy plant eventually forced provincial leaders to abandon the project altogether. Holding Starnes hostage, regardless of the merits behind it, is yet another incident following in the wake of these protests that shows just how little faith the Chinese have in their own legal system.

However, although taking an employer hostage is an extreme tactic, there is a certain amount of logic behind the workers’ actions. Whereas protests are largely an internal matter that can be dealt with—and suppressed—exclusively by the Chinese government, kidnapping a foreign executive raises international concerns among companies that China’s working environment may become increasingly hostile. Without proper legal channels to address potential labor violations, who is to say that something similar will not happen again the future?

Perhaps this, more than any large-scale demonstration, might prompt the Chinese government to action. To reassure potential investors that China is a safe country in which to continue placing their money, officials might finally have an incentive to improve working conditions and to ensure that proper mechanisms are in place to address labor violations. Some businessmen, including Starnes, have already begun to warn potential investors to steer clear of China in the future. Chinese officials should take notice.

Maintaining a safe, business-friendly environment will be especially important as China moves forward because companies now have fewer incentives to invest in the country indefinitely. Higher living standards and increased national prosperity have inevitably resulted in increased wages for Chinese workers, slowly eliminating the comparative advantage of cheap labor that has been the foundation of China’s developmental model.

As a result, companies are now more likely to look elsewhere for their operations. A study in 2012 found that 40 percent of US importers and manufacturers are thinking about moving their bases away from China, while 26 percent of importers of retail goods have already begun the process. In fact, this is largely responsible for the fervor at the factory in Beijing. Starnes’ employees were initially frightened because some of the jobs were in fact being exported to India, stoking fears that the entire factory was going to follow the same path. Although their worries may be unfounded in this particular case, the incident nevertheless highlights the growing anxiety among the Chinese workforce that their jobs are in danger of disappearing.

For now, large parts of China’s undeveloped interior regions remain attractive locations for businesses trying to escape the more expensive areas on the east coast. However, even this source of cheap labor will eventually vanish, in light of China’s rapid economic growth rates. Like Starnes’ company, others will likewise opt to move some or all of their operations to more attractive countries where labor is, as it has been for 30 years in China, cheap and plentiful. If employers feel they are unsafe and cannot rely on effective mechanisms to address labor disputes, they will likely hasten their efforts to move elsewhere, creating problems for China that will be far more significant than an embarrassing hostage situation.

[divider]

Written by Roger Moore. Roger is a graduate student at Georgia State University and a current intern at The Carter Center.

Photo: American executive Chip Starnes is being held hostage at his own factory in China./ CNN

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/7/18

旧文章ID：15812

Exclusive Interview: Chinese-Ghanaian Friendship Looks Forward to Improvement

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作者：Henry Yaw Mallet  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

In June 2013, two associates from The Carter Center’s China Program took a 10-day trip to Ghana to explore Sino-Ghana affairs. This is one of the interviews they conducted with locals while in Ghana.

Henry Yaw Mallet is the Publicity Chairman of Executive Member of the Ghana-China Friendship Association.

Q. How long have you been with this association?

A. I have been with this association for the past 7 years.

Q. From an individual perspective, how do you see China’s influence in Ghana?

A. [To understand] China’s influence in Ghana, looking at it from a developmental perspective, you have to look at in a positive light. I think Ghana needs China for its development more than any other country, if their intentions are understood.

Q. If the Chinese interests are understood?

A. Yes.

Q. How do you see China’s interaction with Ghanaians?

A. There is much work to be done. There is a language issue. I see cultural differences. Once we come to understand each other, and become friends with each other, as our association wants to promote, we wouldn’t have difficulties in that area. It is easy to deal with other nationals because they speak English. It is very difficult to deal with the Chinese, as of now. I think that can be worked on.

Q. Do you see many Ghanaians learning Chinese?

A. I think it is important for Ghanaians to learn Chinese. It will be difficult for those over the age of 50, but there should be a conscious effort made by those under 40 to learn Chinese. I think it would help a lot if Ghanaians understood or spoke Chinese. That would be very important.

Q. What do you think is the general Ghanaian perspective of China?

A. I see it as a misconstrued situation where they think another governing body is coming in when we are trying to rid ourselves of our colonial past. So they see that whatever they bring, they are bringing carrots with a stick. That is the way that they see it. That is the perspective that is growing. It is fostered by trade imbalances where Ghanaian companies are collapsing and the Chinese imports are growing, so these are some of the problems that exist.

>Q. When we were speaking earlier, you mentioned how at one point you had been called a traitor, unfortunately, for your efforts to bridge the misunderstandings between Ghanaians and the Chinese. How have you resisted that unfair characterization?

A. I for one think it was nice that I could be called a traitor. Not because I am one. It tells me the thinking of the ordinary person towards the work I am doing, and towards the Chinese. I think that there is a grey area, which we have to work out. Those who are saying it do not exactly understand what the relationship should be and what it could lead us both to and what the mutual benefits could be. They are not looking at it from that angle, and I think it is work that some of us must undertake. They are looking at it from their anger. We have to work at it.

Q. What do you think the majority of Ghanaians would like to see happen with the relationship with the Chinese?

A. Improved.

Q. Improved or do they want the Chinese to go?

A. They don’t want the Chinese to go. There is a saying, I don’t know where it came from, that Ghanaians are the most hospitable people in the world. They call it Ghanaian hospitality. I am here to help this community against any nationality here or there. I don’t know what Ghanaian hospitality will be if we are against the Chinese in particular.

Q. Ways to improve the Chinese-Ghanaian relationship. You mention language is the major factor. Do you see anything else that either side could do to move things forward?

A. They should understand the Ghanaians and be accommodating. Ghanaians should be accommodating, yes, but both sides must be accommodating. It is important for an employer to learn the Ghanaian culture and live like a Ghanaian. When you live like a Ghanaian, you will find the Ghanaians to be very friendly. Some employers call them lazy people. As a perception, Africans are lazy. The fact is that they are not. If you understand why they will not work on a particular day, you can work with that. You can work your business hours to suit your work plan. You have to give them time to do what they have to do. If you take all the hours away from them, that will be a problem.

Q. That is not going to go over well in Ghana.

A. Yes. Let’s put it this way, if you calculate the number of holidays in China, we do not have the number of holidays in Ghana as they have in China or in Asia. So the work is developed in such a way to accommodate their weekends. They can work 8 hours, or they can work 12 hours. If the understanding is there, it works.

Q. Do you have personal friendships with Chinese or do you know people that do?

A. I have personal friendships with Chinese at home here and abroad in China. There is one of them, George Wu, who is very ill and is in New Zealand. He has a kidney problem. He wants to build a factory here, and he wants to buy a company. It is unfortunate that he is still ill. I don’t know when he is going to get better, but I wish him well. There is a man, Johnny, who owns the Mandarin Restaurant in Accra who is a personal friend of mind, like a brother. I have a lot of Chinese friends. Maybe because I went to seek them out.

Q. Do you feel ordinary Ghanaians get opportunities to befriend Chinese?

A. It is difficult because where do you find the Chinese if you don’t go to them? They don’t come to you. If you are able to go to them, it will help. The language is a problem. They also must start to make the effort.

Q. How do you feel Ghana fits into the larger Sino-African relationship? The example of Ghana? The case of Ghana?

A. I see the stability here as well as in South African countries. I think any serious Chinese investor or organization who has a model that is successful here, that can be replicated in various African countries. I think if they come, it will work. The Chamber of Commerce in Beijing wants to bring Chinese manufacturers here and use them as a model for the rest of Africa and replicate it. The Wenzhou Chamber of Commerce also want to invest in Ghana. They don’t want to take anyone’s money. They want to bring their own money and if they lose it, it is their personal loss. It will not be a loss to the country. They want to see how they can come and help.

Q. Is there anything else you think we should know about the Ghana-Chinese relationship?

A. If Ghana wants to realize its developmental goals, if Ghana wants to see itself at a certain level in the next 10 years, we have to work with China. I am not saying we should go and copy what China has done. I am saying we have to learn from what China has done. We should interact with the Chinese at every level, be it capital, technology or science. (Henry goes into a discussion of his cousin’s views of agricultural cooperation.) We need a Ghana-China policy.

Q. One does not exist?

A. We have a general one, but we need one strictly between Ghana and China. We need free movement, no visa to travel, scholarships to study here or there. Implement other preferred trade situations. If we had that, it would encourage Chinese investors that we have enough protection to come into the system. It would let Ghanaians know that if they are in China, they are at home.

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/7/29

旧文章ID：15811

Exclusive Interview: A Journalist’s View on Chinese Corporate Social Responsibility in Ghana

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作者：Paa Kwesi Plange  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

In June 2013, two associates from The Carter Center’s China Program took a 10-day trip to Ghana to explore Sino-Ghana affairs. This is one of the interviews they conducted with locals while in Ghana.

Paa Kwesi Plange is the Executive Director of the Center for Investigative Reporting, Ghana

Q. With a background in journalism, and from your personal perspective, how do you see China’s involvement in Ghana?

A. Well, at the moment, it’s quite controversial, but before the relationship was quite good. I am saying it was quite good from my own perspective, not from the perspective of the government. From where I sit as a journalist and a Ghanaian, we have heard about a lot of positive engagements with China along the years. Under our first president, Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana and China were good allies. Ghana was one of the primary leaders of the non-aligned movement which stood for south-south cooperation [cooperation between developing countries, especially in the global south]. That is the history of the relationship between Ghana and China.

At the moment, there is a lot of public fury about the engagement of some Chinese citizens in gold mining in Ghana. It has been an issue that has created some bit of discomfort in the relationship between Ghana and China. At the moment, this issue is being addressed. I believe once it is addressed, it will erase any doubts in the minds of people about the Ghana-China relationship.

Q. Do you have any personal relationships with any Chinese or do you know anyone that knows them on a personal level?

A. I have been to China once. I was hosted by a Ghanaian who lives in China and works in China. He has a Chinese driver and a secretary who does the translation and stuff for him. Chinese people are nice people; Africans are a bit mysterious. They wonder who these people are. Once you muster the courage to talk to them, you have friends for life. I have Chinese friends in China, but I don’t have any Chinese friends in Ghana.

Q. Can you elaborate a little more on the current controversy? I know we talked about polluting the water through upstream gold mining and also about the Chinese individuals obtaining mining licenses illegally. Could you share more of your thoughts on how this situation got to where it is now and how it started, and how it evolved into something so controversial and critical.

A. I think if any foreigner wants to be engaged in business in Ghana, there is a certain threshold for investments. It used to be $500,000 but I think it has been extended to $1,000,000. Small-scale mining has been reserved for Ghanaians because Ghanaians don’t have the financial means to raise the required investment for large-scale mining. So that area has been reserved for Ghanaians. So what some Chinese have done is to team with Ghanaians with a license to prospect for Gold. In other words the Ghanaians sublet their concessions to the Chinese.. Then the Chinese will come with their machines and know-how and just move to where the concession is, and they start prospecting [the area] and then begin production. This has created some problems because digging for gold requires digging the dirt and washing it. This allows them to get to the gold itself, so they situate their operations along rivers and lakes. In doing that, they pollute the bodies of water. A lot of major bodies of water in Ghana have been polluted. If you are thinking of the issues with large-scale miners, they are dealing within the legal framework. They have a lot of competence and a large component of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the form of community service . To that extent, if they become aware of pollution, they come up with a remedy for the problem. But you can’t control the activity of the illegals. They are here today, gone tomorrow. They are all over the place. It is a bit difficult. A solution is being found. Once the laws are explained to all, people will know where they stand on the side of the law. If the Chinese are interested, they can come together and raise $10 million. Then they can go anywhere and prospect for gold based on the conditions that are set out under the law.

Q. Have you heard of any CSR Programs that are implemented by Chinese companies that are providing remedies to environmental damages or helping to build communities?

A. Not really. I can’t think of one at the moment.. What I know is that in an environment that is tainted with so many negative stories involving Chinese citizens, if one Chinese company is doing CSR, nobody would hear of it or attach any importance to it. The assumption is that a lot of guys are acting badly, so what good would one person or company do, or two or three people do. I think the challenge is for us to look out for those who are engaged in CSR, then disseminate their stories. Make sure it is part of the culture of the organization. From where I sit, I have not come across any of that, but I am sure (Huawei ) has been doing a lot, especially in the IT and Telecoms sector in Ghana and most of Africa. They are helping a lot of members of parliament in Ghana. But as to CSR, I am not so sure. Don’t take my word for it. They might be doing it, but I am not sure.

Q. We are just trying to figure out how Chinese companies can do a better job of not only implementing their CSR, but in letting the communities know what they are doing. And seek feedback from the communities about whether what they are doing is needed or beneficial.

A. I think one major challenge is the [lack of] socialization. You know you have to be embedded in the culture of a people for a while to appreciate who they are and what makes them tick as a group of people. From where I sit, I think that has not been done very well. I think the embassy should set up a unit whose responsibility would be to give their people who travel abroad the correct orientation of the country and the culture of these countries.. If the Chinese are coming down here, they should have some type of socialization about the things that make the people here tick. What is the culture? The traditions? Once you gain that understanding, it makes it much easier.

Q. Comparatively speaking, you said you have not heard of many good Chinese CSR stories. What about the western companies? Do you think they are doing a better job?

A. I think they are. I think Newmont, a gold mining company in the US, has also had some issues. At a point, they had a concession in a forest. It created a lot of public anger. It has died down a bit. They are a big company and they do a lot of CSR. You hear about them building schools. You hear about them commissioning boreholes , building schools, libraries and homes for natives whose homes are within their concessions. The commissioning of boreholes in these gold mining communities is important because it helps in reducing guinea worm infection and other water borne diseases that are common in those areas.. If companies step up their CSR, it will basically balance some of the challenges that we have.

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/7/29

旧文章ID：15810

A New Vision for The Carter Center’s China Program

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作者：Dana Sand  来源：Emory in the World

In recent years, Ghana has been flooded with migrant gold miners from China. Sean Ding 13MBA, a senior program associate with The Carter Center’s China Program, was there this summer to present research on corporate social responsibility efforts by Chinese companies in Ghana and to interview local Ghanaians. The Ghanaian government had just begun a crackdown on some illegal mining operations, and during the course of 10 days Ding was on the ground, there were more than 100 arrests.

While Ghanaians have been eager to accept billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese investments in minerals and infrastructure projects, many argue that the newly mechanized process of Chinese workers has led to environmental damage.

“China has a large presence in Africa, and many people see China’s role in Africa as positive—they’ve brought in additional capital, created jobs, and helped build infrastructure like bridges, roads, stadiums and hospitals,” Ding explains. “But at the same time, there’s probably an equal amount of criticism of the impact of China in Africa, such as environmental damage and a lack of attention to good governance and accountability.”

Ding says exploring issues like these from both countries’ perspectives will be a new focus of the China Program.

***

According to Ding, the China Program originally evolved from an earlier project within The Carter Center’s Democracy Program that focused on monitoring Chinese village elections. In 2002, they built a website—Chinaelections.org—dedicated to raising awareness of political reform in China and offering a platform for Chinese intellectuals and officials to engage. In 2005, the China Village Elections Project became the China Program to expand the diversity of the work being done in the country.

Along with its concentration on elections, the China Program also worked on advancing access to information in China following the enactment of the Open Government Information regulations in 2008. For four years, the China Program provided training to local officials, organized high-level stakeholder forums on transparency in partnership with universities, and built a website called Chinatransparency.org.

“The biggest accomplishment is that we worked with the Chinese government, think tanks, and academic institutions to tell the story of grassroots democracy in China,” program director Yawei Liu 96PhD says, reflecting on the past 17 years. “We promoted discussion on the need to introduce political reform in China and offered training on institutionalizing open government information.”

Following former President Jimmy Carter’s visit to China last December, during which he met with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, he returned with renewed enthusiasm for and commitment to improving the world’s most significant bilateral relationship. After years of working on political reform within China, the China Program is turning to a new area of concentration: US-China relations.

***

The China Program’s shift in programming presents new challenges. Ding notes that US-China relations is a “crowded field” with organizations—such as the Brookings Institution, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the National Committee on United States–China Relations—already active and playing important roles. On top of that, many of these groups are located in New York or Washington, DC.

“We haven’t been working in that area before, so how do we become both relevant and differentiated?” Ding asks. “If you think in geopolitical terms, China and the US are Pacific powers. They have many bilateral connections. It’s a Pacific relationship in terms of the hot topics—Japan, territorial disputes, trade, cyber security,” he says. “Not enough attention has been paid to how they interact in a third area—in the Middle East or Africa.”

Few organizations have focused their efforts specifically on how to build a path of convergence for these two major powers to coexist and work together toward goals in these key areas, and the China Program hopes to fill this void.

The conversation about incorporating Africa relations began in 2009 when President Carter met with the Chinese minister of health about the possibility of working together to improve the sustainability of Chinese medical aid in Africa. Since then, the project has transformed through a few small, closed-door workshops with Chinese scholars on Africa, African students studying in China, as well as former ambassadors and business representatives.

Ding says the project is trying to understand the view of African citizens on the impact of China in their communities. Thus, the Carter Center built Sinoafrica.org as a platform for African voices to be heard in China.

Right now, the China Program is working to identify which media outlets to monitor. Only English–language sources are being covered, but they hope to expand to other languages in the future. The aim is to translate relevant articles, such as those about local governance problems or pollution issues, so that Chinese companies and leaders can pay attention to these important social and environmental concerns.

***

Another new concentration of the China Program will be to engage young leaders. Ding says The Carter Center will “try to engage young Chinese leaders, students, scholars, and people interested in international affairs and politics early on and try to cultivate their awareness of the need for peaceful, healthy, and sustainable relations with the US.”

As with the former transparency project, Liu says this will help reduce misperceptions and promote collaboration between the two countries. Through partnering with several American and Chinese universities, including Emory, Liu also hopes to start a Model US-China Economic and Strategic Dialogue to get young people involved in looking at issues in which both countries have high stakes.

“We want to work with young people in the US and China so that when they get into decision-making positions, they will have a better understanding of each other and be able to make more informed decisions that will benefit both nations and both peoples,” Liu says.

***

While several new ideas are brewing for the China Program, implementation is still in progress. With an inaugural Carter Center Forum on US-China Relations to be held both on Emory’s campus and at The Carter Center on November 11 and 12, Liu hopes to bring think tanks and academic institutions into collaboration with The Carter Center and the Chinese delegation.

Along with determining the correct audience and engaging the right people, Ding foresees gathering funding for these new areas of focus as another challenge for progress.

Nevertheless, both Liu and Ding are hopeful for the program’s future success and have President Carter’s legacy to carry on.

“President Carter and Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping made the courageous decision to normalize relations between the United States and China about 35 years ago,” Liu says. “That relationship has changed both China and the United States and has also brought about positive changes to East Asia as well as to the world. Even though both countries have benefited from this relationship, there are still both structural and perceptional issues that may derail the relationship and threaten peace and prosperity. So that’s what we’re going to work on.”

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/12/1

旧文章ID：15809

President Carter Media Roundtable on US-China Relations Part I

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作者：  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

[These are President Carter’s remarks from a press conference on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, in response to questions posed by Chinese new organizations.]

Wen Xian, People’s Daily: January 1, 2014 marks the 35 year anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties between the U.S. and China. This was the decision made by you and late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping jointly. Looking back, what’s you feeling and assessment of this decision?

President Carter: Well when I became president, I was disturbed that for 35 years, the United States and China had no diplomatic relations. We had decided to go just with Taiwan, as you know, when the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949, on my birthday as a matter of fact. So I felt that it was time for me as a new president to change that relationship. Because I saw the future of the western pacific, of Asia, and indeed the entire world, could be benefited if the US and China, two great countries, could cooperate with each other. And it was very unpopular in my country, because of the alliances that had been formed with the government in Taiwan. So President Nixon–who said there was only one China, never would say which one–and so they continued to say that Taiwan was the only China. So, I began a very secret negotiation with Deng Xiaoping, though intermediaries, and we began to make good progress, because I could tell from across the earth that he did really want to see China change in its relationship with the outside world, not just with the United States. So because of that, we announced the decision on the 15th of December, that the new relationship would go into effect January 1st, and then three days later, he announced reform and opening up. So I’ve always felt that normalizing relations with the United States and reform and opening up were the same thing, and so I had felt great pleasure in the new understanding that is developing still between the two countries. But you have to realize that 35 year is a brief moment in history, and we still have a lot to learn about each other and how we can cooperate on sensitive issues, how we can be beneficial to the rest of the world. And that’s why we’re having this conference here, because The Carter Center feels that we have, not only an opportunity, but an obligation to take advantage of a chance to strengthen these ties.

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/11/25

旧文章ID：15808

President Carter Media Roundtable on US-China Relations Part II

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作者：  来源：US-China Perception Monitor

[These are President Carter’s remarks from a press conference on Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, in response to questions posed by Chinese new organizations.]

Xinhua: Since  the founding of China in 1949, the U.S. and China have had a very complicated relationship. This relationship changed significantly after 1979 when you and Deng Xiaoping normalized the relationship between China and the U.S. Many suggest this is the most important bilateral relationship as well as the most difficult one in the world. President Xi Jinping talks about a new model of great power relationship. What do you think is this new model?

President Carter: Well I have met with president Xi Jinping now four times, more than any another American. I met with President Li Keqiang as well, and when I have been to China, almost every year since we normalized relations, the incumbent leaders have always made sure that I would meet with future leaders before they became anointed as president and as premier. So I was very pleased with the opportunity for me and my wife to meet with Xi jinping three times in private sessions where we could talk about the future, and he spelled out to me, in those four meetings, his ideas of what the new relationship should be–not trying to interfere with the previous leaders, but also just what his own personal ideas were, and I was very pleased at what he had to say. I do not know what he and President Obama decided, I was not there, and I haven’t had a full report on it, but I think that what Xi Jinping was saying, in his first and only meeting with President Obama, was he was telling Obama we want to make sure that the relationship that was established more than thirty years ago continues in a spirit of mutual respect and mutual understanding, and a search for common commitments, and an understanding of the differences that exist between our two countries, and acceptance of those differences. China has an ancient history, ours is fairly new. China is a different part of the world from the United States, China has different interests in other countries that what we have. China is an emerging political and economic nation, the United States is established. So we have many differences, but what I think Xi Jinping was telling Obama is, let’s understand these differences and build on them to create a stronger and more mutually respectful and better understanding between our two countries. Don’t let the differences come between us, let the differences be understood, and use them as the foundation for building a better future.

来源时间：2018/4/5   发布时间：2013/4/3

旧文章ID：15807

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