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二大爷:蓬佩奥再度就对华政策发表演说

作者:二大爷  来源:网络

在美国关闭中国驻休斯敦总领馆引发的外交巨震仍在发酵之时,刚刚从欧洲游说盟友归来的美国务卿蓬佩奥,于当地时间7月23日在加州再度就对华政策发表重磅演说。

蓬佩奥这篇名为《共产党中国与自由世界的未来》的演讲,火力全开,再次将目标对准中国,称美国及其盟友必须用“更有创造力和坚定的方式”迫使中共改变其行事方式。扬言“北京的行为威胁到我们的人民和我们的繁荣……为了未来的自由与繁荣,美国私营企业与政府必须合作抵抗。”

蓬佩奥还在讲话中多次重申对中国不公平贸易行为、侵犯人权以及试图渗透美国社会的指控。他认为中国的军队已经变得“更强大、更有威胁性”,对待中国的方式应该是“不信任和核实”——这个说法源自前总统里根,他在上世纪80年代关于苏联的演讲中曾经说过。

蓬佩奥选择演讲的地点——尼克松纪念图书馆也是颇费心思的。尼克松四十多年前的访问中国,成为中美关系改善的肇始,也深刻的改变当时的世界格局。今天蓬佩奥选择在此做一个结束味道很浓的演讲,是一种很强的姿态示意,可谓意味深长。

蓬胖一贯冲锋在前,对华的激烈言论已经成为习惯性的标配,但其实他并不是口不择言,说话很注意措辞——如果你细看他的讲稿,从刚上任到现在,他从来不说“中国人怎么样”,刻意区分政府和人民。

这是一个月以来,蓬佩奥第二次发表对华政策演讲,此前于7月17日,他才在爱荷华州的一场名为“我的信念,我的工作,我的国家”演讲中,嘲讽央视敕封他为“人类公敌”一事。

事实上,近期在公开场合强硬表态的鹰派,并不只是蓬胖一个。从中可以看出美帝政坛某些趋同性的策略。

6月24日,川普的国家安全顾问奥布莱恩曾经在亚利桑那的凤凰城,面对美国商界大佬们宣讲国策,做了一场重磅演讲,撂下了很多前所未见的狠话。比如他说“对中国意识形态……错误的估计是自1930年代以来美国外交政策的最大失败。”“对华……天真又被动的时代结束了,美国人终于醒来了”。

7月7日在美帝著名的智囊机构——哈德逊研究所举办的主题为“与FBI局长对话”的活动中,联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗.雷发表演讲,号称“平均每10小时就要启动一个新的与中国有关的案件”,“接近5000宗反间谍案件中,几乎一半与中国有关……盗窃规模如此巨大因此可以说这是人类历史上最大规模的财富转移之一,而受害的是美国人民。”

7月17日,另一位重磅政客,美国司法部长威廉•P•巴尔,在密歇根也发表了对华政策的有关演讲。他点名批评了好莱坞特别讨好中国的剧本设置、苹果为了业务把数据置于中国、硅谷公司协助中国审查等等,公开号召美国企业不能执行“对华绥靖”,不能做甘愿屈从的“棋子”。他还专门引用了国内金灿荣关于“双赢就是中国赢两次”的话,指出中国某些根本性质从来没变过。

一个月的时间中,国务卿、国家安全顾问、联邦调查局局长、司法部长……四个在美帝政府中职位极为重要的人,在密集的时间段分别发表对华政策的讲话,这绝对不是偶然。从内容的连贯性和一致性,甚至高度雷同的某些细节来看——比如他们演讲最后都会不约而同的讨好中国人民……策略性十足。这可以说是美帝全面动员的一个信号。

从这个角度看美帝最近在休斯敦的动作,以及川普“可能会关更多领事馆”的狠话,可以看出在大选前夕,为了显示更强硬的立场争取选民,美帝极有可能有一连贯的大动作。

很显然,对于美帝这些精心策划的大动作,很多人除了听听胡主编的嘴炮,恐怕一脸茫然。最沮丧的牌局是,自己的牌早就出完,然后才发现对方的牌还有很多。

这正是最危险之处。

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22462

中国对美政策的困境:如何保持强硬但避免“分手”

作者:KEITH BRADSHER, STEVEN LEE MYERS  来源:纽约时报中文网

北京——两周前,中国外交部长王毅曾呼吁美国在两国关系问题上悬崖勒马,寻找合作途径。没过几天,他在与俄罗斯外长通电话时抱怨说,美国“已经失去了理智、道德和信用”。

问题现在是,中国在这方面能做什么。特朗普政府对中国的广泛攻击,几乎没给中国领导人留下多少不会威胁让两国关系彻底破裂的选项。在中国正与印度、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚等许多其他国家发生冲突的时候,如果中美关系彻底破裂,北京可能会更加孤立,已受新冠病毒大流行及其全球后果影响的中国经济也可能遭受伤害。

美国周二公布命令,要求中国仅在72小时内关闭驻休斯敦总领事馆,这只是政府激怒中国官员的最新行为。在短短几周里,中国政府已忍受了抵制中国5G无线技术的运动力度加大、对负责香港和穆斯林为主的新疆地区官员的制裁,现在美国又指控中国派遣数十名隐瞒身份的军人来美窃取商业、军事,甚至医学秘密。

中国外交部发言人周四再次誓言,将对美国关闭领馆的做法采取必要的反制措施。他把美国政府的指控斥为“恶意诬蔑”。

官方的愤怒正在中国激起反美情绪,让鹰派更加大胆地发声。民族主义者呼吁,中国除了采取克制的针对性措施,还要更进一步,甚至应该考虑关闭美国驻香港总领事馆。

“让他们紧张着吧,”中共党报《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进在提到驻中国六个使领事馆的美国外交官时写道。他说,美国驻香港总领事馆“明摆着”就是个情报中心,并大大夸大了驻香港工作人员的数量。

他还提到了驻休斯敦总领事馆收到关闭命令后的匆忙反应,可以看见有人在领馆院子里把文件放在金属容器中烧掉。“让他们各家领馆都做一个紧急计划,都把文件打好包,准备烧掉。”

"美国已命令中国关闭其驻休斯敦的领事馆。"

美国已命令中国关闭其驻休斯敦的领事馆。 GO NAKAMURA/GETTY IMAGES

幕后的中国高级官员似乎无意让紧张局势进一步升级,他们担心在特朗普总统竞选连任的当下,任何举动都可能让他有可乘之机。特朗普如果以高调的方式与中国摊牌,可能会分散美国人对他在疫情中拙劣应对措施的注意力,让他能以一个保卫自己国家对抗外国势力的领导人形象来进行竞选。

“这是一种典型的游戏,从外部找一个分散注意力的事情,来激发人民对总统的支持,”北京的香港问题高级顾问刘兆佳说。

与此同时,北京不能在美国的密集攻击面前表现软弱。中国的学校逐步培养起来的、被官方媒体放大的民族自豪感要求中国领导人在来自国外的挑战面前保持强硬立场。

“中国需要维护自己的荣誉和主权,”上海复旦大学国际关系教授沈丁立说。

中国外交部发言人汪文斌在周四的例行记者会上说得很明白,中国官员们十分清楚他们的两难处境。

“我们没有兴趣去干预美国的大选,我们也希望美方不要在大选当中拿中国说事,”他说,并马上警告特朗普政府:“我们奉劝美方不要一错再错,否则中方必将作出正当和必要的反应。”

与美国紧张关系的不断升级暴露了北京在应对问题上的分歧。美中之间的冲突比中国官员仅在几周前所预计的要广泛、激烈得多。

据几名参与中国政策制定的人士透露,分歧中的一方是中国安全部门和军队的官员,他们反对采取任何可能被美国解读为软弱的和解立场。另一方是那些主要关心经济问题的官员,他们寻求对美国的行动做出更慎重的回应,比如保持贸易停战状态不变。由于外交问题的敏感性,这些知情人士要求不透露姓名。

熟悉中国政策制定的人士说,即使在驻休斯敦领事馆关闭之后,中国仍会执行今年1月15日与美国签署的所谓第一阶段贸易协议。

如果中国想在美国总统大选中伤害特朗普的话,北京可以停止大量购买美国食品。根据新冠病毒疫情暴发之前签署的贸易协议,中国同意购买美国食品。停止购买会惩罚美国农民,他们在一些州可能是重要的选民阵营。

芝加哥大型贸易公司福斯通(INTL FCStone)驻上海的大宗农产品专家达林·弗里德里希(Darin Friedrichs)说,到目前为止,中国今年夏天一直在大量购买美国的玉米、小麦、高粱和猪肉。不到两周前,中国完成了有史以来最大一笔购买美国玉米的单笔订单,距离上一笔大宗交易仅隔4天。

"今年1月,美国和中国签署了一份有限的贸易协议。中国据说将继续遵守这份协议。"

今年1月,美国和中国签署了一份有限的贸易协议。中国据说将继续遵守这份协议。 PETE MAROVICH FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

中国领导人习近平仍是北京政策辩论的最终仲裁者,他还没有对两国关系恶化发表言论。周三,关闭领事馆的消息公开时,习近平正在远离北京的吉林省视察,似乎未受外交冲突的惊扰。周四,他视察中国人民解放军空军航空大学时,只谈了8月份纪念建军节的事情。

“北京的政策总是由习本人来调整,”北京的独立分析师吴强说。“他自己踩油门,然后自己踩刹车。”

中国人似乎对中美关系的急剧恶化感到震惊。外交部长王毅在7月9日的讲话中似乎为稳定两国关系画出了途径。

“习近平主席多次强调:我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好,没有一条理由把中美关系搞坏,”他说。“只要双方都有改善和发展中美关系的积极意愿,我们就能够推动中美关系走出困境,重回正轨。”

尽管如此,中国人在许多新战线上面临对峙。在关闭领事馆的这轮最新攻击中,特朗普政府指控中国外交官在美国各地的几起经济间谍和试图盗窃科研成果的案件中起帮助作用。

中国官员愤怒地谴责了关闭领事馆的做法,称其为一种挑衅行为,将进一步破坏已经恶化的关系。中国驻休斯敦总领事蔡伟说,关闭驻休斯敦领事馆的做法是对中美关系的“极大破坏”。中国驻休斯敦总领馆是1979年中美正式建交后,北京在美国设立的第一个领事馆。

在以前关系紧张时,两国元首特朗普和习近平有时会通过打一次长途电话或见一次面来缓和分歧。在贸易战恶化时,以及在新冠病毒暴发初期双方的言语冲突升级时,都曾发生过这种情况。

不过,华盛顿现在用的语调已比以前更糟。特朗普似乎对化解危机已经不再感兴趣。

“习近平反而可以采取主动,”加州大学圣迭哥分校21世纪中国研究中心主任谢淑丽(Susan L. Shirk)说。“习近平也可以通过邀请美国与中国一起领导一场为测试、生产和公平分配新冠病毒疫苗做规划的国际努力,来展示中国的善意。”

来自华盛顿的强硬政策和言辞表明,是美国,而不是中国,正在为双边关系设定越来越对抗的基调。“我认为,开始的时候你可以将关系的大部分失衡归咎于中国,”亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)说。“但随着美国尽最大努力挑战中国,它似乎不再有兴趣敞开大门,找到改进措施。”

考虑到美国行动的广范程度,以及两党对这些行动越来越多的支持,即使特朗普的挑战者小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)在大选中获胜的话,目前也不清楚中国是否能够指望情况会有所改善。

夏伟指出,拜登任副总统时曾与习近平见过多次面,两人甚至一起旅行过。

“拜登可以利用他们之间存在的一种对称来重塑中美关系,”夏伟说。“真正的问题是,习近平是否能用同样的方式来回应——为得到一点东西而做出一点让步,这是否会被视为软弱。”

“我确实认为拜登及其团队完全有能力找到一个新的平衡点,”夏伟还说。“我不太相信中国会发现这一点容易做到。”

Keith Bradsher自北京、Steven Lee Myers自韩国首尔报道。Rick Gladstone自马萨诸塞州伊斯特姆对本文有报道贡献,Claire Fu和Coral Wang对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》上海分社社长,曾任香港分社社长、底特律分社社长。他之前曾驻华盛顿报道国际贸易新闻,后驻纽约报道美国经济和通信行业,还曾担任航空业记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @KeithBradsher。

Steven Lee Myers是《纽约时报》北京分社社长。他自1989年加入时报,曾在莫斯科、巴格达和华盛顿多地进行报道。他著有《新沙皇:弗拉基米尔·普京的崛起和统治》(“The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin”)一书。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22461

叶胜舟:中美关系一泻千里的“换位思考”

作者:叶胜舟  来源:FT中文网

数日来,中美外交关系接连发生大事。7月22日,中国外交部确认,美国政府7月21日突然要求中方72小时内关闭中国驻休斯敦总领馆。同日,特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上威胁,关闭更多中国驻美领事馆“一直是可能的”。7月24日,中国外交部通知美方关闭美国驻成都总领事馆。

中美建交以来冲突接二连三,温差起伏不断,美国如此操作的确罕见,但也不必大惊小怪。以前还有比这更严重的,如1995年6月,发表“两国论”的李登辉访美,中国召回时任驻美大使李道豫,实质将中美关系从大使级降为代办级。

中国国内较早爆料的《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进称美国此举“丧心病狂”,未必这么简单;郑永年教授5月19日在新加坡《联合早报》评论称,中美关系已“比自由落体还糟糕”,未必这么悲观。从不同角度多一分换位思考,对中美现状和未来也就多一分清醒。

紧咬中国:最后机会,两败俱伤

一个高明的对手或敌人,远甚于一百个平庸的朋友。美国已将实力坐稳世界老二的中国,视为最强大的战略竞争对手,非常担忧自己霸主地位不保。一般的国家对美国不构成重大威胁,更不配美国动用如此巨量资源反复打压。

美国曾经的死对头苏联已解体,继承其主要衣钵的俄罗斯元气大伤,被美国精准定位为“残存的强权”。金正恩强行拥核,权术、手腕极为高超,特朗普一时冲动,草率举行三次峰会,给了金正恩三次高光露脸机会。可惜朝鲜国力太弱,玩不转中美两国,还是原地踏步,打回原形,《朝鲜和平协议》依然是金正恩的镜中花、水中月。

与如今咄咄逼人、刀刀见血的“极限施压”战略不同,美国与中国建交后长期实施温和渐进的“接触演变”战略。它有机会打压更早、更狠,但没有这么做,现在后悔纵容中国强大。特朗普多次公开抱怨,认为中国占了美国太多便宜,但不责怪中国,而是责怪前几任美国总统。

7月23日,美国国务卿蓬佩奥在加州尼克松总统图书馆发表演讲称,“我们一直采取的接触方式,并没有在中国内部带来尼克松总统所期望的变化”,他呼吁“热爱自由”的国家以更有创意和自信果断的方式,“诱使中国做出改变”,否则中国“一定会改变我们”。

其实中国国运已经不错了,加入WTO后综合国力加速飙升,可称为“黄金二十年”。如果美国2001年不许中国加入WTO,同时这么狠劲折腾,中国几乎没有招架之力。9•11事件后,美国错误地将恐怖主义视为首要敌人,留下一地鸡毛。据美国布朗大学2018年研究报告,截至2019财年,美国战争经费5.93万亿美元。

中国目前羽翼未丰,守成霸主现在发力遏制新兴大国不算晚,能拦住,已经吃力了,而且可能是最后一次机会。中美恶斗的结局肯定是杀敌一千、自杀八百,中方受伤重些,但韧劲更足,承压更好。

中美冲突,最受益的将是俄罗斯、日本,德国、印度也有机会崛起。老大、老二火并,对世界必然是大灾难,新冠疫情将夺走更多人命,气候变化将加剧全球环境恶化,核扩散将威胁国际和平与安全。

特朗普:疫情失控,选情低迷

特朗普是商人出身,又是“政治素人”。他以“不确定性”著称,侄女在7月14日出版的新书中,以临床心理学家身份解剖叔叔有自恋、学习障碍、反社会人格障碍、依赖型人格障碍等一堆心理问题,其实他有“确定性”一面。

他的四年总统任期,处理中美关系经历三个阶段,有明显的风格转变,但主基调不变,一直是实用主义、利己主义。

任期第1年,朝核危机爆发,他需要中国支持摆平,所以没有刁难中国,反而多次称赞中国领导人,吹嘘两人之间的私人关系。他反感的政敌奥巴马获得诺贝尔和平奖,极度虚荣的他曾幻想通过快速解决朝核问题,获此奖光耀家族。

任期第2-3年,他迷信肤浅的直觉,缺乏知识储备和战略远见,只动用美国的1/4实力与中国过招。美国绝对优势的软实力几乎没有动用,自废一半武功;热衷于动用过时的三流武器“关税”,明摆着两败俱伤,更愚蠢的是还以关税反复打击威胁邻国与盟友,没有联合众多盟友合力形成包围圈遏制中国,再废1/4武功。否则中国更难过。

任期第4年,他明显更狠更没底线,疫情失控、选情落后是两个主要诱因。今年3月以来美国新冠疫情大暴发持续不歇,把他原来十拿九稳的连任选情冲得七零八落,岌岌可危,所有民调都落后拜登7-15个百分点,平均10个点以上。包括2016年总统选举以微弱优势获胜的四五个关键摇摆州,民调也明显落后,远高于统计误差范围。

在此情况下,特朗普急红眼。一系列决策剑走偏锋,对别人是“不确定性”,对他本人而言,完全“理性”和“确定性”。所以他要顶着疫情反弹压力,开竞选集会、撤换竞选经理;不断转移矛盾,中国首当其冲,包括多次称“中国病毒”;内政外交政策再无自信依赖自己直觉,被以蓬佩奥为代表的鹰派操控。

进一步换位思考,特朗普这些行为的动机就是自保。11月美国大选,民主党大概率将获得参议院多数、维持众议院多数。他担忧如果连任不了,民主党一全面执政,是否马上就对他及其家人秋后算账。

从美国政治而言,大选年向来中美关系不好,两党候选人较着劲攻击中国,指责对方对华软弱,而下任总统就职后,反而有所缓和。共和党总统里根参选时就强硬反华,他的两个任期却是难得的“中美蜜月”。

而从美国精英尤其极右翼的角度看,他们终于觉醒,终于较真,形成了牢固的反华跨党派共识。战略转折的标志是2017年12月发布的《国家安全战略报告》,战略稳定的标志是2020年5月发布的《美国对中华人民共和国的战略方针》。

中方应对:平缓理性,静观大选

中美关系每次急转直下,中国应对都是被动的、防御的、理性的。但愿这波考验也不例外。

从中方而言,战略核心利益是一定要民族复兴,一切行动服从和服务于此目标。中国没有实力和野心做世界老大,这是个苦差和大坑,美国做了70年都扛不住,如今经常“退群”、撂挑子、甩包袱。因此,还不如美国继续做“世界警察”,中国作为老二,充其量做“世界辅警”,不挑战现有、核心的国际秩序,分工和定位省心省力。

中国外交部7月22日已声明,美方如不立即撤销有关错误决定,“中方必将作出正当和必要反应”。表面暗示报复,内在其实是活话,中方的应策有三个选项:不报复、缓报复、弱报复。

可以不报复。退一步海阔天空,面子小事,里子重要。普京KGB出身,向来展示硬汉形象。近百年来,苏联、俄罗斯对硬实力的运用炉火纯青。但普京不是莽夫,足够理性,没有睚眦必报。2016年12月30日,离任总统奥巴马放大招,以俄干预美大选为由,关闭俄驻马里兰、纽约的领事馆,驱逐35名俄外交官。普京当天回应不报复,而且祝贺美国人民和候任总统特朗普新年快乐。特朗普当天在推特上迅速发帖称赞,“我一直知道(普京)很聪明!”

可以缓报复。外交对等,要报复很正常,不必马上执行。美国驱赶中国驻休斯敦外交官的最后时限,是北京时间7月25日凌晨4时。如果本周内中国就发布报复消息,笔者有些失望,说明外交火候还有欠缺,只求一时痛快,不能更好地维护中国长远利益和根本利益。即使要报复,不妨推迟一周,更低调平和。

可以弱报复。邓小平以巨大的政治勇气,彻底否定了文革,并找到改革开放的新路,中共、中国因此在绝境中获得新生。开放主要是向发达的西方开放,中国外交向来最重视中美关系,不希望中美关系崩盘。美国下手没有找中国驻纽约的大馆,而是相对边远的小馆,与美国驻武汉领事馆是姐妹馆。假如中国报复,应排除美国驻香港、上海、广州领事馆,那力度过猛,损失太大;也不必如美国一般苛刻限令三天内关闭,不妨大度放宽至七天或十天关闭。

7月24日上午,中方通知美方关闭驻成都总领事馆,中国外交部公告措辞留有回旋余地。没有公布关闭期限,只说“对该总领事馆停止一切业务和活动提出具体要求”,同时强调对等报复“符合国际法和国际关系基本准则,符合外交惯例”,“中美之间出现目前的局面,是中方不愿看到的,责任完全在美方。”这清晰表明中方仍保持理性克制。

中美已陷入修昔底德陷阱,处于“冷战”边缘。这是中国和平崛起的必然代价,也是必要考验。扛不住就没有希望崛起和复兴,坦率说,自己不配,别人也不服。

鉴于美国11月大选是个大变量,中美关系必然继续动荡。未来三个月美国疫情继续失控,经济继续疲软,特朗普更煎熬和焦虑,还会到处主动找茬,转移焦点。如以违反安理会核制裁为由,突然导弹袭击伊朗军舰等,笔者毫不意外。

今年下半年,中国务必沉住气,多忍一忍,静观其变,不要撞枪口,避免多生是非、恶性循环。这既不利中美人民友好交流、民间交流,还给美国极右翼继续出大招的借口,特朗普的回旋余地也更小。

俄罗斯提议安理会“五常”召开元首峰会,纪念联合国成立75周年,是个好主意。人是情感动物,总要相互联系和走动,老死不相往来怎么亲近?视频会议比不接触好,面谈又比视频好,哪怕有分歧冲突,坐下来吵架也比背后放冷枪好。中美元首9月下旬或10月上旬如有机会在联合国总部单独会谈,不奢望关系好转,至少有望止损。

(注:作者为独立评论人,微信公号:SSWYSP。本文仅代表作者个人观点。)

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22460

走向新冷战?美中意识形态两军对垒

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作者:斯洋  来源:美国之音

美国国务卿蓬佩奥星期四(7月23日)称习近平是“破产的极权意识形态的忠实信徒”,他甚至呼吁中国人民改变中国共产党前行的方向。他还说,“如果自由世界不改变中国, 终有一天被中国改变。”分析人士指出,美中在意识形态领域的竞争在螺旋式上升。这样的美中竞争与30年前的以意识形态挂帅的美苏争霸究竟有什么异同呢?

蓬佩奥: 习近平是破产的极权意识形态的信徒

蓬佩奥星期四在加州的尼克松总统图书馆发表题为“共产党中国与自由世界的未来”的演讲,他提到了美中在意识形态领域的根本不同。

他说:“就像奥布莱恩大使所解释的,我们必须记住,中国共产党是马克思列宁主义政权,习近平总书记是破产的极权意识形态的忠实信徒。他的意识形态反映他几十年来寻求建立在中共基础上的全球霸权。就像中国从来没有忽略那样, 美国再也不能忽视两国在政治和意识形态上的根本不同。”

蓬佩奥指的是美国国家安全事务顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩(Robert O’Brien )6月26日发表的有关中国共产党意识形态的讲话。奥布莱恩在演讲中承认,美国的对华接触政策之所以失败是因为美国之前没有注意中国共产党的意识形态。

他说:“我们为什么会犯这样的错误?我们为什么不能看清中国共产党的本质?答案很简单,是因为我们没有注意中国共产党的意识形态。……。我们只相信我们希望相信的方面,认为这些党员只是名义上的共产主义者。”

奥布莱恩称中共领导人习近平是前苏联独裁者斯大林(Josef Stalin)的继承人。 他还说,习近平对意识形态管控的野心不仅限于本国人民。中国共产党宣称的目标是建立一个人类命运共同体,并任由中国共产党来重塑整个世界。

蓬佩奥在讲话中呼吁自由世界携手应对来自中共的威胁,捍卫自由。他还表示,他相信自由世界一定会胜利,因为自由世界曾经这么做过,也因为自由世界正在觉醒。他显然指的是美苏对抗中苏联垮台的事实。

蓬佩奥承认中国与前苏联的不同,但是他认为中共在重复苏联的错误。他说:“我之所以这么笃信,是因为中国共产党在重复前苏联的错误, 孤立他们可能的盟友,打破国内外对他们的信任,拒绝承认产权以及法治。”

美国对中国意识形态的认知在改变

这不是蓬佩奥第一次强调美中在意识形态上的不同。5月20日,白宫公布了《美国对中华人民共和国战略方针》,这份战略方针首次将“价值观挑战”与“经济挑战“和”安全挑战“并列在一起,称这是中国对美国的三大威胁。

蓬佩奥在报告发表当天举行的一个新闻发布会上说:“自从1949年以来,中国一直被一个残暴的威权政权、一个共产党政权所统治。” 他还说,:“我们大大低估了北京在意识形态和政治上对自由国家的敌对程度。全世界正在看清这一事实。”

《战略方针》说,“北京显然自以为正与西方进行一场意识形态竞争。”方针说, 2013 年,习近平总书记呼吁党为两个竞争体系之间的“长期合作与冲突时期”做准备,但“资本主义最终消亡,社会主义最终胜利”。

方针还说,中共的强制意识形态认同运动并没有止步于中国的边界。近年来,北京干涉主权国家的内政,谋求对其政策的认同。在国际上,中共打着“构建人类命运共同体”旗帜,推动习近平的全球治理愿景。

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会中国战略计划主任杜如松(Rush Doshi)说,两国在意识形态领域的竞争已经呈现螺旋式上升的趋势–一国所谓的“防御”意识形态努力被另一方视为“攻击型”的意识形态行动(或是意识形态的输出),从而触发另一国的反应,导致竞争升级。 他说,两国在意识形态上的差距正在影响所有的一切。

美中意识形态的不同也体现在联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷 、司法部长威廉·巴尔等政府高级官员最近的讲话中。

司法部长巴尔在7月16日的演讲中把美中竞争与未来的生存联系起来。他说,美国与中国的竞争将决定未来“是由美国及其自由民主盟国继续塑造自身的命运,还是由中共及其专制朝贡国来掌控未来。”

巴尔最后呼吁:“自由世界采取‘全社会’的方式‘赢得争夺制高点的竞争’,就像‘美国以前做到过的’一样。”

纽黑文大学东亚安全中心主任布莱特·麦考密克(Brett McCormick)认为,巴尔最后的这番言论是“对冷战的明确召唤”。

联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷(Christopher Wray)在7月8日的演讲中,也强调来自中共的威胁。他说,中共“正在不择手段地钻我们开放制度的空子,同时利用它自己封闭制度的优势”。

区分中国和中共,美国挑战中共政权的合法性?

蓬佩奥在讲话中还再次将中国共产党政府与中国人民作出了区分。他说,比起害怕外国的敌人,这个党更加害怕来自自己民众的真实言论。他号召中国人民来改变中共前行的方向。他说,中国人民一样热爱自由。

其实自2019年以来, 蓬佩奥在讲话中就开始区分中共/中国政府与中国/中国人民。这也是美国政府对华新战略的另一个特点。越来越多的美国政界人士强调,“美中冲突只是美国与中共的冲突。”

2019年10月底,蓬佩奥在纽约哈德逊研究所发表演讲时,将抨击目标聚焦在中共政权上。他说,中国共产党在挑战美国、挑战世界,以争取世界上的主导地位”。他说:“美国如今也意识到了,中国共产党对美国和美国价值观怀有敌意。” 当时,中国外交部斥责蓬佩奥暴露了“阴暗的反共心理”,“挑拨中国共产党与中国人民的关系”。

2019年11月8日纪念柏林墙倒塌30周年的活动上,在德国访问的蓬佩奥再次将“中共”与“中国人民”进行拆分。他夸赞中国人民聪明、有能力,强调“美中冲突只是美国与中共的冲突”。蓬佩奥的讲话再次受到北京言辞激烈的反击,称“企图将中国人民和中共割裂对立的言行……是对全体中国人民的挑衅”。

据称,蓬佩奥的这些做法是受到他的华裔智囊余茂春的影响。这位中国出生的学者最近在受访时说,美国高层官员之前在声明中经常提到“中国人”,未能区分“中国人民”和中共政权。他还认为,美国之前对华政策的一个重大缺陷是政治和政策精英,未能正确衡量北京的弱点和脆弱性,并采取相应的合理对策。 他说:“实际上,中共政权的核心是脆弱而软弱的,它害怕自己的人民,偏执地臆想来自西方特别是美国的对抗。”

中国前外交部副部长傅莹认为,美国政府官员将中国共产党与中国人民割裂和对立起来,是在“挑衅中国共产党和政治制度的合法性,因此中方必须坚决与之斗争”。

在行动上,华盛顿也将中共与中国人民越来越明显地区别开来。特朗普政府在考虑一项针对中国共产党9200万党员的全面旅行禁令,禁止他们进入美国,并且可能驱逐目前在美国的中共党员。

中共一直视美国为威胁

如果说,美国是近两年才感受到意识形态在美中竞争中的重要性,而中共则一直视美国为威胁。

中国前外交部副部长傅莹自己也承认,“从中方的角度看,美国从来没有放弃颠覆中国共产党领导的社会主义制度的企图。”

中共一直高度警惕以美国为首的西方国家对中国进行“和平演变"和"颜色革命”的图谋。

中共十八大以来,习近平在不同场合就指出:“经济建设是党的中心工作,意识形态工作是党的一项极端重要的工作”,“意识形态领域看不见硝烟的战争无处不在,政治领域没有枪炮的较量一直未停。”

他还通过臭名昭著的“九号文件”和16条,要求严防西方思想对中国高校的渗透。

在美国新冠疫情失控,非洲裔美国人争取平等权利运动时,中国官方媒体借此对美国进行攻击,强调中国价值观和制度的优势。

中共支持威权主义,挑战美国的自由民主理念

不过,也有学者认为,美中在意识形态领域的竞争态势与美苏争霸还是有很大的不同。他们认为,与美苏争霸不同的是,中国不像苏联那样高度信仰共产主义,也没有在全球范围内推行共产主义,因此,美中竞争并没有像美苏那样陷入意识形态领域的零和竞争。

傅泰林(Taylor Fravel) 是美国麻省理工学院的政治学教授,他这样告诉美国之音:“从意识形态上讲,在先前的冷战中,美国和苏联都有普遍的意识形态,特别是苏联通过在世界范围内传播社会主义来建立自己的安全。今天,美国和中国在政治意识形态和政府体制、在民主与非民主的意识上显然存在分歧,但是中国并不一定要让世界其他地方的国家转变成像中国这样的马克思列宁国家。中国很乐意与民主国家或专制国家合作。因此,意识形态的竞争与我们在冷战中目睹的竞争是不同的。”

美苏冷战的一个主要特征是两国在意识形态领域的冲突。一方希望自己的意识形态能战胜另一方的意识形态。苏联希望在全球建立共产主义, 而美国希望在世界推行民主和自由资本主义。

美国传统基金会的成斌也认为,与冷战时不同,中国没有积极走出去寻求改变其他国家的制度, 但是,他认为中国对威权体制的支持对美国的意识形态理念形成挑战。

他说:“中国对威权体制的支持确实会挑战美国的意识形态理念:自由、民主和资本主义”。从这个角度来说,确实有意识形态的部分,但是与冷战是非常不同。”

(美国之音记者莫雨、吉尔对本文也有贡献。)

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22459

Michael R. Pompeo: Communist China and the Free World’s Future

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作者:Michael R. Pompeo  来源:美国国务院网站

YORBA LINDA, CALIFORNIA
  THE RICHARD NIXON PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY AND MUSEUM
  JULY 23, 2020
  GOVERNOR WILSON: Well, thank you very much, Chris. Most generous. I’m not sure your grandfather would have recognized me.
  I have the great pleasure – in addition to welcoming all of you to the Nixon birthplace and library, I have the great pleasure of introducing to you an extraordinary American who is here at an extraordinary time. But the fun of it is in introducing our honored guest, I also am welcoming him not just to the Nixon Library, but I’m welcoming him back home to Orange County. (Applause.) That’s right. Mike Pompeo was born in Orange. (Applause.)
  He attended Los Amigos High School in Fountain Valley, where he was an outstanding student and athlete. In fact, I have it on good authority that among the fans of glory days of Lobo basketball, a reverent hush descends upon the crowd whenever the name “Pompeo” is mentioned. (Laughter.)
  The Secretary was first in his class at West Point. He won the award as the most distinguished cadet. He won another award for the highest achievement in engineering management. He spent his active duty years, his Army years, in West Germany, and as he put it, patrolling the Iron Curtain before the fall of the Berlin Wall.
  In 1988 – excuse me – retiring with a rank of captain, he went on to Harvard Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review. In 1988, he returned to his mother’s home state of Kansas and began a stunningly successful business career. He was elected to the House of Representatives from Kansas in 2011, where he soon gained great respect for a reputation as one of the most diligent and astute members of the House Arms – excuse me, the House Intelligence Committee.
  In 2017, President Trump nominated him to be the director of Central Intelligence. And in 2018, he was confirmed as our 70th Secretary of State.
  You have to admit, that’s quite an impressive resume. So it’s sad there’s only one thing missing, prevents it from being perfect. If only Mike had been a Marine. (Laughter.) Don’t worry, he’ll get even.
  Mike Pompeo is a man devoted to his family. He is a man of faith, of the greatest patriotism and the highest principle. One of his most important initiatives at the State Department has been the creation of a Commission on Unalienable Rights where academicians, philosophers, and ethicists advise him on human rights grounded in America’s founding principles and the principles of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Rights.
  He is here today for a very special reason. The epitaph on President Nixon’s gravestone is a sentence from his first inaugural address. It says, quote, “The greatest honor history can bestow is the title of peacemaker.” Richard Nixon received that title. He won that honor not only because he was acknowledged even by his critics to be a brilliant foreign policy strategist, but it was far more because he earned it. He learned as congressman, senator, president, and every day thereafter as a private citizen ambassador that peace is not achieved by signing documents and declaring the job done. To the contrary, he knew that peace is always a work in progress. He knew that peace must be fought for and won anew in every generation.
  It was President Nixon’s vision, determination, and courage that opened China to America and to the Western world. As president and for the rest of his life, Richard Nixon worked to build a relationship with China based upon mutual benefits and obligations that respected America’s bedrock national interests.
  Today, we in America are obliged to assess whether or not President Nixon’s labors and his hopes for such a relationship have been met or whether they are being undermined.
  That is why it is of such great significance that our honored guest, Secretary Pompeo, has chosen the Nixon Library from which to deliver a major China policy statement. It will, I promise you, be a statement of complete clarity delivered with force and with belief because it is of critical importance.
  Ladies and gentlemen, it is my great honor and pleasure to welcome to this podium and to this audience our honored guest, the Secretary of State of the United States of America, the honorable and really quite remarkable – honorable Michael R. Pompeo. (Applause.)
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you. Thank you all. Thank you, Governor, for that very, very generous introduction. It is true: When you walk in that gym and you say the name “Pompeo,” there is a whisper. I had a brother, Mark, who was really good – a really good basketball player.
  And how about another round of applause for the Blue Eagles Honor Guard and Senior Airman Kayla Highsmith, and her wonderful rendition of the national anthem? (Applause.)
  Thank you, too, to Pastor Laurie for that moving prayer, and I want to thank Hugh Hewitt and the Nixon Foundation for your invitation to speak at this important American institution. It was great to be sung to by an Air Force person, introduced by a Marine, and they let the Army guy in in front of the Navy guy’s house. (Laughter.) It’s all good.
  It’s an honor to be here in Yorba Linda, where Nixon’s father built the house in which he was born and raised.
  To all the Nixon Center board and staff who made today possible – it’s difficult in these times – thanks for making this day possible for me and for my team.
  We are blessed to have some incredibly special people in the audience, including Chris, who I’ve gotten to know – Chris Nixon. I also want to thank Tricia Nixon and Julie Nixon Eisenhower for their support of this visit as well.
  I want to recognize several courageous Chinese dissidents who have joined us here today and made a long trip.
  And to all the other distinguished guests – (applause) – to all the other distinguished guests, thank you for being here. For those of you who got under the tent, you must have paid extra.
  And those of you watching live, thank you for tuning in.
  And finally, as the governor mentioned, I was born here in Santa Ana, not very far from here. I’ve got my sister and her husband in the audience today. Thank you all for coming out. I bet you never thought that I’d be standing up here.
  My remarks today are the fourth set of remarks in a series of China speeches that I asked National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, FBI Director Chris Wray, and the Attorney General Barr to deliver alongside me.
  We had a very clear purpose, a real mission. It was to explain the different facets of America’s relationship with China, the massive imbalances in that relationship that have built up over decades, and the Chinese Communist Party’s designs for hegemony.
  Our goal was to make clear that the threats to Americans that President Trump’s China policy aims to address are clear and our strategy for securing those freedoms established.
  Ambassador O’Brien spoke about ideology. FBI Director Wray talked about espionage. Attorney General Barr spoke about economics. And now my goal today is to put it all together for the American people and detail what the China threat means for our economy, for our liberty, and indeed for the future of free democracies around the world.
  Next year marks half a century since Dr. Kissinger’s secret mission to China, and the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s trip isn’t too far away in 2022.
  The world was much different then.
  We imagined engagement with China would produce a future with bright promise of comity and cooperation.
  But today – today we’re all still wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP failed in its promises to the world. We’re reading every morning new headlines of repression in Hong Kong and in Xinjiang.
  We’re seeing staggering statistics of Chinese trade abuses that cost American jobs and strike enormous blows to the economies all across America, including here in southern California. And we’re watching a Chinese military that grows stronger and stronger, and indeed more menacing.
  I’ll echo the questions ringing in the hearts and minds of Americans from here in California to my home state of Kansas and beyond:
  What do the American people have to show now 50 years on from engagement with China?
  Did the theories of our leaders that proposed a Chinese evolution towards freedom and democracy prove to be true?
  Is this China’s definition of a win-win situation?
  And indeed, centrally, from the Secretary of State’s perspective, is America safer? Do we have a greater likelihood of peace for ourselves and peace for the generations which will follow us?
  Look, we have to admit a hard truth. We must admit a hard truth that should guide us in the years and decades to come, that if we want to have a free 21st century, and not the Chinese century of which Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it.
  As President Trump has made very clear, we need a strategy that protects the American economy, and indeed our way of life. The free world must triumph over this new tyranny.
  Now, before I seem too eager to tear down President Nixon’s legacy, I want to be clear that he did what he believed was best for the American people at the time, and he may well have been right.
  He was a brilliant student of China, a fierce cold warrior, and a tremendous admirer of the Chinese people, just as I think we all are.
  He deserves enormous credit for realizing that China was too important to be ignored, even when the nation was weakened because of its own self-inflicted communist brutality.
  In 1967, in a very famous Foreign Affairs article, Nixon explained his future strategy. Here’s what he said:
  He said, “Taking the long view, we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside of the family of nations…The world cannot be safe until China changes. Thus, our aim – to the extent we can, we must influence events. Our goal should be to induce change.”
  And I think that’s the key phrase from the entire article: “to induce change.”
  So, with that historic trip to Beijing, President Nixon kicked off our engagement strategy. He nobly sought a freer and safer world, and he hoped that the Chinese Communist Party would return that commitment.
  As time went on, American policymakers increasingly presumed that as China became more prosperous, it would open up, it would become freer at home, and indeed present less of a threat abroad, it’d be friendlier. It all seemed, I am sure, so inevitable.
  But that age of inevitability is over. The kind of engagement we have been pursuing has not brought the kind of change inside of China that President Nixon had hoped to induce.
  The truth is that our policies – and those of other free nations – resurrected China’s failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it.
  We opened our arms to Chinese citizens, only to see the Chinese Communist Party exploit our free and open society. China sent propagandists into our press conferences, our research centers, our high-schools, our colleges, and even into our PTA meetings.
  We marginalized our friends in Taiwan, which later blossomed into a vigorous democracy.
  We gave the Chinese Communist Party and the regime itself special economic treatment, only to see the CCP insist on silence over its human rights abuses as the price of admission for Western companies entering China.
  Ambassador O’Brien ticked off a few examples just the other day: Marriott, American Airlines, Delta, United all removed references to Taiwan from their corporate websites, so as not to anger Beijing.
  In Hollywood, not too far from here – the epicenter of American creative freedom, and self-appointed arbiters of social justice – self-censors even the most mildly unfavorable reference to China.
  This corporate acquiescence to the CCP happens all over the world, too.
  And how has this corporate fealty worked? Is its flattery rewarded? I’ll give you a quote from the speech that General Barr gave, Attorney General Barr. In a speech last week, he said that “The ultimate ambition of China’s rulers isn’t to trade with the United States. It is to raid the United States.”
  China ripped off our prized intellectual property and trade secrets, causing millions of jobs[1] all across America.
  It sucked supply chains away from America, and then added a widget made of slave labor.
  It made the world’s key waterways less safe for international commerce.
  President Nixon once said he feared he had created a “Frankenstein” by opening the world to the CCP, and here we are.
  Now, people of good faith can debate why free nations allowed these bad things to happen for all these years. Perhaps we were naive about China’s virulent strain of communism, or triumphalist after our victory in the Cold War, or cravenly capitalist, or hoodwinked by Beijing’s talk of a “peaceful rise.”
  Whatever the reason – whatever the reason, today China is increasingly authoritarian at home, and more aggressive in its hostility to freedom everywhere else.
  And President Trump has said: enough.
  I don’t think many people on either side of the aisle dispute the facts that I have laid out today. But even now, some are insisting that we preserve the model of dialogue for dialogue’s sake.
  Now, to be clear, we’ll keep on talking. But the conversations are different these days. I traveled to Honolulu now just a few weeks back to meet with Yang Jiechi.
  It was the same old story – plenty of words, but literally no offer to change any of the behaviors.
  Yang’s promises, like so many the CCP made before him, were empty. His expectations, I surmise, were that I’d cave to their demands, because frankly this is what too many prior administrations have done. I didn’t, and President Trump will not either.
  As Ambassador O’Brien explained so well, we have to keep in mind that the CCP regime is a Marxist-Leninist regime. General Secretary Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology.
  It’s this ideology, it’s this ideology that informs his decades-long desire for global hegemony of Chinese communism. America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between our countries, just as the CCP has never ignored them.
  My experience in the House Intelligence Committee, and then as director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and my now two-plus years as America’s Secretary of State have led me to this central understanding:
  That the only way – the only way to truly change communist China is to act not on the basis of what Chinese leaders say, but how they behave. And you can see American policy responding to this conclusion. President Reagan said that he dealt with the Soviet Union on the basis of “trust but verify.” When it comes to the CCP, I say we must distrust and verify. (Applause.)
  We, the freedom-loving nations of the world, must induce China to change, just as President Nixon wanted. We must induce China to change in more creative and assertive ways, because Beijing’s actions threaten our people and our prosperity.
  We must start by changing how our people and our partners perceive the Chinese Communist Party. We have to tell the truth. We can’t treat this incarnation of China as a normal country, just like any other.
  We know that trading with China is not like trading with a normal, law-abiding nation. Beijing threatens international agreements as – treats international suggestions as – or agreements as suggestions, as conduits for global dominance.
  But by insisting on fair terms, as our trade representative did when he secured our phase one trade deal, we can force China to reckon with its intellectual property theft and policies that harmed American workers.
  We know too that doing business with a CCP-backed company is not the same as doing business with, say, a Canadian company. They don’t answer to independent boards, and many of them are state-sponsored and so have no need to pursue profits.
  A good example is Huawei. We stopped pretending Huawei is an innocent telecommunications company that’s just showing up to make sure you can talk to your friends. We’ve called it what it is – a true national security threat – and we’ve taken action accordingly.
  We know too that if our companies invest in China, they may wittingly or unwittingly support the Communist Party’s gross human rights violations.
  Our Departments of Treasury and Commerce have thus sanctioned and blacklisted Chinese leaders and entities that are harming and abusing the most basic rights for people all across the world. Several agencies have worked together on a business advisory to make certain our CEOs are informed of how their supply chains are behaving inside of China.
  We know too, we know too that not all Chinese students and employees are just normal students and workers that are coming here to make a little bit of money and to garner themselves some knowledge. Too many of them come here to steal our intellectual property and to take this back to their country.
  The Department of Justice and other agencies have vigorously pursued punishment for these crimes.
  We know that the People’s Liberation Army is not a normal army, too. Its purpose is to uphold the absolute rule of the Chinese Communist Party elites and expand a Chinese empire, not to protect the Chinese people.
  And so our Department of Defense has ramped up its efforts, freedom of navigation operations out and throughout the East and South China Seas, and in the Taiwan Strait as well. And we’ve created a Space Force to help deter China from aggression on that final frontier.
  And so too, frankly, we’ve built out a new set of policies at the State Department dealing with China, pushing President Trump’s goals for fairness and reciprocity, to rewrite the imbalances that have grown over decades.
  Just this week, we announced the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston because it was a hub of spying and intellectual property theft. (Applause.)
  We reversed, two weeks ago, eight years of cheek-turning with respect to international law in the South China Sea.
  We’ve called on China to conform its nuclear capabilities to the strategic realities of our time.
  And the State Department – at every level, all across the world – has engaged with our Chinese counterparts simply to demand fairness and reciprocity.
  But our approach can’t just be about getting tough. That’s unlikely to achieve the outcome that we desire. We must also engage and empower the Chinese people – a dynamic, freedom-loving people who are completely distinct from the Chinese Communist Party.
  That begins with in-person diplomacy. (Applause.) I’ve met Chinese men and women of great talent and diligence wherever I go.
  I’ve met with Uyghurs and ethnic Kazakhs who escaped Xinjiang’s concentration camps. I’ve talked with Hong Kong’s democracy leaders, from Cardinal Zen to Jimmy Lai. Two days ago in London, I met with Hong Kong freedom fighter Nathan Law.
  And last month in my office, I heard the stories of Tiananmen Square survivors. One of them is here today.
  Wang Dan was a key student who has never stopped fighting for freedom for the Chinese people. Mr. Wang, will you please stand so that we may recognize you? (Applause.)
  Also with us today is the father of the Chinese democracy movement, Wei Jingsheng. He spent decades in Chinese labor camps for his advocacy. Mr. Wei, will you please stand? (Applause.)
  I grew up and served my time in the Army during the Cold War. And if there is one thing I learned, communists almost always lie. The biggest lie that they tell is to think that they speak for 1.4 billion people who are surveilled, oppressed, and scared to speak out.
  Quite the contrary. The CCP fears the Chinese people’s honest opinions more than any foe, and save for losing their own grip on power, they have reason – no reason to.
  Just think how much better off the world would be – not to mention the people inside of China – if we had been able to hear from the doctors in Wuhan and they’d been allowed to raise the alarm about the outbreak of a new and novel virus.
  For too many decades, our leaders have ignored, downplayed the words of brave Chinese dissidents who warned us about the nature of the regime we’re facing.
  And we can’t ignore it any longer. They know as well as anyone that we can never go back to the status quo.
  But changing the CCP’s behavior cannot be the mission of the Chinese people alone. Free nations have to work to defend freedom. It’s the furthest thing from easy.
  But I have faith we can do it. I have faith because we’ve done it before. We know how this goes.
  I have faith because the CCP is repeating some of the same mistakes that the Soviet Union made – alienating potential allies, breaking trust at home and abroad, rejecting property rights and predictable rule of law.
  I have faith. I have faith because of the awakening I see among other nations that know we can’t go back to the past in the same way that we do here in America. I’ve heard this from Brussels, to Sydney, to Hanoi.
  And most of all, I have faith we can defend freedom because of the sweet appeal of freedom itself.
  Look at the Hong Kongers clamoring to emigrate abroad as the CCP tightens its grip on that proud city. They wave American flags.
  It’s true, there are differences. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is deeply integrated into the global economy. But Beijing is more dependent on us than we are on them. (Applause.)
  Look, I reject the notion that we’re living in an age of inevitability, that some trap is pre-ordained, that CCP supremacy is the future. Our approach isn’t destined to fail because America is in decline. As I said in Munich earlier this year, the free world is still winning. We just need to believe it and know it and be proud of it. People from all over the world still want to come to open societies. They come here to study, they come here to work, they come here to build a life for their families. They’re not desperate to settle in China.
  It’s time. It’s great to be here today. The timing is perfect. It’s time for free nations to act. Not every nation will approach China in the same way, nor should they. Every nation will have to come to its own understanding of how to protect its own sovereignty, how to protect its own economic prosperity, and how to protect its ideals from the tentacles of the Chinese Communist Party.
  But I call on every leader of every nation to start by doing what America has done – to simply insist on reciprocity, to insist on transparency and accountability from the Chinese Communist Party. It’s a cadre of rulers that are far from homogeneous.
  And these simple and powerful standards will achieve a great deal. For too long we let the CCP set the terms of engagement, but no longer. Free nations must set the tone. We must operate on the same principles.
  We have to draw common lines in the sand that cannot be washed away by the CCP’s bargains or their blandishments. Indeed, this is what the United States did recently when we rejected China’s unlawful claims in the South China Sea once and for all, as we have urged countries to become Clean Countries so that their citizens’ private information doesn’t end up in the hand of the Chinese Communist Party. We did it by setting standards.
  Now, it’s true, it’s difficult. It’s difficult for some small countries. They fear being picked off. Some of them for that reason simply don’t have the ability, the courage to stand with us for the moment.
  Indeed, we have a NATO ally of ours that hasn’t stood up in the way that it needs to with respect to Hong Kong because they fear Beijing will restrict access to China’s market. This is the kind of timidity that will lead to historic failure, and we can’t repeat it.
  We cannot repeat the mistakes of these past years. The challenge of China demands exertion, energy from democracies – those in Europe, those in Africa, those in South America, and especially those in the Indo-Pacific region.
  And if we don’t act now, ultimately the CCP will erode our freedoms and subvert the rules-based order that our societies have worked so hard to build. If we bend the knee now, our children’s children may be at the mercy of the Chinese Communist Party, whose actions are the primary challenge today in the free world.
  General Secretary Xi is not destined to tyrannize inside and outside of China forever, unless we allow it.
  Now, this isn’t about containment. Don’t buy that. It’s about a complex new challenge that we’ve never faced before. The USSR was closed off from the free world. Communist China is already within our borders.
  So we can’t face this challenge alone. The United Nations, NATO, the G7 countries, the G20, our combined economic, diplomatic, and military power is surely enough to meet this challenge if we direct it clearly and with great courage.
  Maybe it’s time for a new grouping of like-minded nations, a new alliance of democracies.
  We have the tools. I know we can do it. Now we need the will. To quote scripture, I ask is “our spirit willing but our flesh weak?”
  If the free world doesn’t change – doesn’t change, communist China will surely change us. There can’t be a return to the past practices because they’re comfortable or because they’re convenient.
  Securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time, and America is perfectly positioned to lead it because our founding principles give us that opportunity.
  As I explained in Philadelphia last week, standing, staring at Independence Hall, our nation was founded on the premise that all human beings possess certain rights that are unalienable.
  And it’s our government’s job to secure those rights. It is a simple and powerful truth. It’s made us a beacon of freedom for people all around the world, including people inside of China.
  Indeed, Richard Nixon was right when he wrote in 1967 that “the world cannot be safe until China changes.” Now it’s up to us to heed his words.
  Today the danger is clear.
  And today the awakening is happening.
  Today the free world must respond.
  We can never go back to the past.
  May God bless each of you.
  May God bless the Chinese people.
  And may God bless the people of the United States of America.
  Thank you all.
  (Applause.)
  MR HEWITT: Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Please be seated. I’m Hugh Hewitt, the president of the library, and Secretary Pompeo graciously invited some questions as I was listening. Thank you for joining us, Mr. Secretary, at the Nixon Library.
  My first question has to do with the context of the president’s visit in 1972. You mentioned the Soviet Union was isolated, but it was dangerous. He went to the People’s Republic of China in 1972 to try and ally and combine interests with them against the Soviet Union; it was successful.
  Does Russia present an opportunity now to the United States to coax them into the battle to be relentlessly candid about the Chinese Communist Party?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: So I do think there’s that opportunity. That opportunity is born of the relationship, the natural relationship between Russia and China, and we can do something as well. There are places where we need to work with Russia. Today – or tomorrow, I guess it is, our teams will be on the ground with the Russians working on a strategic dialogue to hopefully create the next generation of arms control agreements like Reagan did. It’s in our interest, it’s in Russia’s interest. We’ve asked the Chinese to participate. They’ve declined to date. We hope they’ll change their mind.
  It’s these kind of things – these proliferation issues, these big strategic challenges – that if we work alongside Russia, I’m convinced we can make the world safer. And so there – I think there is a place for us to work with the Russians to achieve a more likely outcome of peace not only for the United States but for the world.
  MR HEWITT: President Nixon also put quite a lot of store in personal relationships over many years with individuals. That can lead wrong. President Bush famously misjudged Vladimir Putin and said so afterwards. You have met President Xi often. Is the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party someone with whom we can deal on a transparent and reliable basis, in your opinion, based on your personal diplomacy with him?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: So the meetings that I’ve had and the meeting that the President – we’ve had – they’ve been good, frank conversations. He is the most powerful leader of China since Mao. He has also in many ways deinstitutionalized the Chinese Communist Party, thus giving him even more capacity and more power.
  But Hugh, I think the way to think about it is how I spoke about this today: It’s about actions. And so how one evaluates one’s counterparts sitting across the table from them – it’s important to think about how you can find common understandings and make progress. But in the end, it’s not about what someone says or the agreement that they sign, but are they prepared to lead, to do the things that they committed to? Are they prepared to fulfill their promises?
  And we’ve watched – we’ve watched this China walk away from their promises to the world on Hong Kong, we watched their – General Secretary Xi promised President Obama in the Rose Garden in 2015 that he wouldn’t militarize the South China Sea. And Google the South China Sea and arms; you’ll see another promise broken.
  So in the end, from my perspective, it’s much more important to watch how leaders behave and how they lead than what it is you think when you have a chance to talk to them on the phone or meet them in person.
  MR HEWITT: Mr. Secretary, you said this is not containment. I heard that very clearly. I have read the three previous speeches by Ambassador O’Brien, Director Wray, Attorney General Barr, and now listened to you very closely. It isn’t containment, but it is a fairly comprehensive, multidimensional, relentlessly objective candor. Is that dangerous in a world that’s not used to speaking clearly about delicate subjects?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: My experience, and I think President Trump’s experience too in his life as a businessman, is the best policy is always true candor, identifying the places that you have a redline, identifying places that you have a real interest, making clear if there’s places where you don’t, and there’s things that you can work on alongside each other.
  I think the real danger comes from misunderstandings and miscommunication and the failure to be honest about the things that matter to you, because others will move into that space and then conflict arises. I think the world is a heck of a lot safer when you have leaders who are prepared to be honest about the things that matter and prepared to talk about the things their nation is prepared to do to secure those interests. And you can reduce risk by these conversations so long as you’re honest about it.
  So I – no, I don’t think it’s dangerous. I think it’s just the opposite of that.
  MR HEWITT: You also said – and I’m sure the speech will be known as the “distrust but verify” speech – when you distrust but verify, that still premises verification is possible. It is still possible to do agreements and to verify them; correct?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: It is, yeah, you can still do it. Each nation’s got to be prepared for a certain amount of intrusiveness connected to that. And it is not in the nature of communist regimes to allow transparency inside of their country. And so it’s been done before. We’ve had – we had arms control agreements with the Soviet Union that we got verification that was sufficient to ensure that we protected American interests. I believe we can do it again. I hope that we can do this on these – I mean, the Chinese Communist Party has several hundred nuclear warheads. This is a serious global power. And to the extent we can find common ground, a common set of understandings to reduce risk that there’s ever a really bad day for the world, we ought to do it, and it’s going to require agreement and verification.
  MR HEWITT: Ambassador Richard Haass, who is now chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, said very recently – it may have been yesterday, it might have been this morning; I saw it this morning preparing – quote, “Secretary Pompeo doesn’t speak of China but of the Chinese Communist Party as if there were a China apart from the party. This is meant to antagonize and make diplomacy impossible. Quite a stance for America’s chief diplomat to take unless his goal is to ensure diplomacy fails.” Is that your goal?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: (Laughter.) Ah, goodness. Hard to begin. Here’s where I’ll begin: It’s a bit patronizing to the people of China to make such an assertion that they are not free-thinking beings, that they’re not rational people who were given – I mean, they too were made in the image of God, right. They have all the capacity that anybody in the world does. So to somehow think that we ought to ignore the voices of the people of China seems to me the wrong approach. It is true the Chinese Communist Party is a one-party rule. And so we will deal with the Chinese Communist Party as the head of state for China, and we need to, and we need to engage in dialogue. But it seems to me we would dishonor ourselves and the people of China if we ignored them.
  MR HEWITT: Now, Ambassador O’Brien, whose speech you referenced, put heavy emphasis on the ideology of Marxist-Leninism. It was almost quaint to hear that conversation again; it’s gone from our vocabulary. Does the American people, and especially American media, need to reacquaint itself with what Marxist-Leninists believe, because the CCP genuinely does believe it?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: I always get in trouble, Hugh, when I comment on the media. So I’ll say this much: For those of us who have lived and seen and observed, there are other Marxist-Leninist nations today as well – and have seen – they believe – they have an understanding, a central understanding of how people interact and how societies ought to interact. And it is certainly the case today that the leadership in China believes that.
  We should acknowledge that, and we should make sure that we don’t for a moment think that they don’t believe it. It’s what Ambassador O’Brien’s speech was about. It was the fact – it was acknowledging that they believe it and recognizing that we have to respond in a way that reflects our understanding of the way they view the world.
  MR HEWITT: Let’s not talk about the American media. I want to talk about the Chinese media for a moment. They are aggressive, to say the least, and right now they are aggressively defending, for example, TikTok. A small question within a large question: Is TikTok capable of being weaponized? Is that an example of what’s going on? And generally, Chinese media has become far more aggressive than I’ve seen in 30 years since I was at the library the first time of watching it. Is that something you’ve noticed as well?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Yes, they’re very aggressive. Two pieces to this, one you hit upon. One is I’ll describe as their technology medium. Without singling out any particular business, our view of these companies is we’re neither for or against the company; we’re about making sure that we protect the information that belongs to each of you – your health records, your face if it’s a facial recognition software, your address. All the things that you care that you want to make sure the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have, we have a responsibility to make sure that the systems that you’re using don’t give them access to that. And so whether it’s the efforts we’ve made against Huawei or the work that we’re doing on other software firms, the American task is to protect the American people and their information.
  The second piece of this has to do with their – what I’ll call the state-sponsored media of China and their disinformation. You should know – and this is where I am concerned about the American media, too – these are state-sponsored media organizations that take their messaging from the Chinese Communist Party each day. When American institutions pick up those storylines and carry them forward, they are, in fact, propagating Chinese propaganda, and we all ought to be wise to that.
  There was an editorial in The New York Times yesterday by someone who had a clear view that was antithetical to the American way of life. The New York Times ran it straight-up without comment, forwarding – although albeit in the opinion section, but propagating Chinese propaganda. That is certainly not instructive when they’re telling senators from Arkansas they can’t simply talk about America and American freedom in that same media outlet.
  MR HEWITT: You mentioned that a lot of corporate America – and you mentioned specifically Hollywood – have got deep intertwinement with the Chinese economy. So I don’t want to talk about soft power; I want to talk about soft appeasement. One of my favorite sports figures, LeBron James, falls silent when China comes up. In the new Top Gun movie, the Taiwan and Japanese patches are taken off Maverick’s jacket. They’re not going to be in Top Gun 2; they were in Top Gun 1. What do you say not to those individuals, but to everyone who has an American spotlight about their responsibility to be candid about the People’s Republic of China?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Here’s our ask: Our ask is if you claim that you care about human rights or social justice or these things, if you make that part of your corporate theology, then you ought to be consistent. And you can’t be consistent if you’re operating there in China without talking about and acknowledging what the Chinese Communist Party is doing in certain parts of their country – the oppression that’s taking place. Look, every business leader has got to make decisions for themselves. They’ve got to be able to live with the decisions that they make. You highlighted a few.
  I’d simply ask this: If you run an entity and the United States Government were to tell you you couldn’t do something, put a particular symbol in your movie or put a particular name on your menu – if we were to tell you that, you’d say nope, that’s not appropriate, and it, of course, would not be appropriate. It seems to me that if you permit the Chinese Communist Party to limit you in that way, it’s got to be difficult for you to go home at night.
  MR HEWITT: Two more questions, Mr. Secretary. (Applause.) Because it is hot and it is warm, and everyone out here has been in the sun for a while. You’re a West Point graduate, and as Governor Wilson noted, number one, so this might be tough for you. But we are an, like Athens was, a naval power. America is a naval power. And as like Sparta is, China is a land power. Do we not have to change how we approach defense spending to put more emphasis on our naval resources than on our Army resources?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Oh, that’s tough for an Army guy to say. (Laughter.)
  MR HEWITT: I know.
  SECRETARY POMPEO: You’re killing me. Look, I’ll leave to Secretary Esper the details of this, but I can – here’s what I can say. When President Trump set out our National Security Strategy early on in the administration, for the first time we identified China in a way that was fundamentally different than we had done – this isn’t partisan – for decades.
  That was important because that was a signal to all of us, whether it’s the State Department or the Defense Department, that we needed to reoriented our – reorient our assets. And so yes, you’ve seen the Department of Defense begin to do that. These are big things to turn. These budgets are multiyear. It takes a while.
  But if you look at how Secretary Esper and President Trump are positioning our military capabilities – not just the tactical, operational, and strategic capabilities, but our cyber capabilities, our space capabilities – if you look at how we’re thinking about this and spending resources in year two, three, four, and five, I think you’ll see that our focus has shifted pretty dramatically.
  It’s not to say that our efforts to protect America from terrorism are behind us. We still have work to do there. But I think this great power challenge that presents itself is something that we have recognized and we begin to make sure that we allocate your money – our taxpayer resources that we have – to the appropriate ends to achieve American security.
  MR HEWITT: My last question has to do with a former secretary of state who was also an Army man, George Marshall. He gave a speech in 1947 at your alma mater, Harvard, in which he called on all the nations of the world to recognize that the world was in crisis and to choose a side. And he assured them in that famous address that if you chose the American side in (inaudible) Europe, you could count on America.
  So as you make the appeal you did today, not just to Europe, where it’s relatively easy to be outspoken, though Norway has found it not to be outspoken, but to Taiwan and Japan and Vietnam and all of the – Australia, all of the nations of that region – can they rely on America in the way that people opposing the Soviet Union could rely on George Marshall’s assurance in 1947?
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Undoubtedly, undoubtedly, Hugh. The only thing I’ll say is when – this language of “pick a side” does make sense to me, but I think about picking a side differently than picking America or picking China. I think the sides, the division – the shirts and skins, if you will – is between freedom and tyranny. I think that’s the decision that we’re asking each of these nations to make. (Applause.)
  And here’s the good news of this. The good news is it does take American leadership often in these cases. To your point, they need to know that America will be there for them. I’ve seen the tide turn. In just – in just these three and half years of our administration, I’ve watched other nations have less timidity, become more prepared to stand up for their freedoms and for the freedoms of their people. We don’t ask them to do this for America. We ask them to do it for their country and for their nation – the freedom and the independence and to protect the rights of their people.
  And when we do that and we tell them that America will be there, I am very confident in the end that this is a world that with the hard work applied will become one that is governed by a rules-based order, and the freedom of the American people will be secured.
  MR HEWITT: Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us here today.
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you.
  MR HEWITT: Please join me in thanking the Secretary. (Applause.)
  SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you all.

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22458

美国国务卿蓬佩奥在尼克松图书馆演讲全文

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作者:蓬佩奥  来源:VOA

  蓬佩奥国务卿讲话的全文翻译:
  谢谢你,谢谢大家。谢谢州长的介绍,实在是过奖了。的确,你走进那个健身房,提起"蓬佩奥"的名字时,会有人悄悄耳语。我有个兄弟,马克,真的是很棒,真的是很棒的篮球手。
  再次为蓝鹰仪仗兵和空军下士凯拉·海史密斯和她精彩的国歌演唱鼓掌,怎么样?
  也感谢劳瑞牧师动人的祷告,我想感谢休·休伊特和尼克松基金会邀请我在这个重要的美国机构发表讲话。很高兴有一位空军的人为我唱歌,一位海军陆战队的人为我做介绍,而且他们让陆军的人站到了海军的人的房子前。这一切都很好。
  很荣幸来到约巴林达。尼克松的父亲在这里建了这座房子,他在这里出生长大。
  感谢尼克松中心董事会和工作人员使我和我的团队今天的活动成为可能,在眼下这样做绝非易事。
  我们有幸看到在座的有些非常特殊的人,包括克里斯,我得以结识他,克里斯·尼克松。我还想感谢翠西·尼克松和朱莉·尼克松·艾森豪威尔对这次访问的支持。
  我还想感谢几名勇敢的中国异议人士,他们远道而来参加我们今天的活动。
  所有的其他贵宾,所有的其他贵宾,感谢你们来到这里。那些能够坐在帐篷下面的人,你们一定是多付钱了。
  也感谢那些收看直播的人。
  最后,就像州长提到的,我出生在圣安娜,离这里不太远。今天在座的有我姐姐和姐夫。谢谢你们来。我敢打赌你们从来也没想到我会站在这里。
""

  我今天的讲话是一系列有关中国的演说的第四部分,我请国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩、联调局局长克里斯·雷和司法部长巴尔与我一道发表这些演说。
  我们有一个非常明确的目的、一个真正的使命。这就是解释美中关系的不同层面、几十年来累积起来的那种巨大的关系失衡以及中国共产党的霸权意图。
  我们的目标是表明,特朗普总统中国政策旨在解决的针对美国的威胁是显而易见的,而且我们为确保这些自由制定了战略。
  奥布莱恩大使讲到了意识形态。联调局局长雷谈到了间谍问题。司法部长巴尔讲到了经济。我今天的目标是为美国人民把这些汇总在一起,详细阐述中国的威胁对我们的经济、我们的自由乃至世界各地自由民主的未来意味着什么。
  明年将是基辛格博士秘密访问中国半个世纪的一年,离2022年尼克松总统访华50周年也不太远了。
  大家知道,那时的世界大为不同。我们曾经想象,与中国接触将会产生团结合作的光明未来。然而,因为中共未能履行对世界的承诺,今天我们都仍然戴着口罩,目睹大流行病死亡人数的上升。每天早晨,我们都在读着打压香港和新疆的新闻头条,我们看到造成美国就业流失、沉重打击美国各地、包括南加州这里的经济的中国不当贸易行为的惊人统计数字,我们目睹中国军队变得越来越强大并且越来越具威胁性。
  从加利福尼亚这里到我的故乡堪萨斯州以至更远的地方,美国人心灵和脑海中萦绕着这些问题,我也要重复它们:
  与中国接触50年后,美国人民现在有什么成果可以示人?
  我们的领导人提出的中国朝着自由与民主演变的理论被证明是正确的吗?
  这是中国所定义的"双赢"局面吗?
  而且,从一位国务卿的视角来看,核心的是,美国更加安全了吗?我们自身以及我们后代的和平前景是不是更大了?
  我们必须承认一个无情的事实。如果我们希望有一个自由的21世纪,而不是习近平所梦想的中国世纪,我们必须承认一个无情的事实并应以此作为我们未来几年和几十年的指导:与中国盲目接触的旧模式根本做不成事。我们绝不能延续这个模式。我们决不能重回这个模式。
  特朗普总统非常明确地表示,我们需要一个战略,保护美国经济,还有我们的生活方式。自由世界必须战胜这个新暴政。
  在我好像急于要破坏尼克松总统的遗产之前,我希望明确表示,他做的是他当时相信对美国人民最为有利的事情,而且他可能是对的。
  他是一位出色的中国研究者、强悍的冷战勇士、而且是中国人民的仰慕者,—我想我们大家都是。
  必须要充分肯定的是,他认识到中国实在太重要了,不能被忽视,即使当时的中国因为自我施加的共产暴政而处在被削弱的状态。
  1967年,尼克松在《外交事务》杂志上发表的一篇非常著名的文章中解释了他的未来战略。这是他说的话。他说: "长远来看,我们根本无法承受永远让中国留在国际大家庭之外……除非中国改变,世界不会安全。因此,在我们对事件所能影响的范围内,我们的目标应为引导改变。"
  我认为这是整篇文章的关键词:"引导改变"。
  因此,尼克松总统历史性的北京之行,开启了我们的接触战略。他崇高地寻求一个更为自由、更为安全的世界。他希望中国共产党会对那个承诺做出回报。随着时间的推移,美国决策者日益假定,随着中国变得更为繁荣,它会开放,对内会变得更为自由,而且对外不那么具有威胁性,更为友好。我敢肯定,一切似乎都显得如此的势在难免。
  然而,势在难免的时代结束了。我们一直在追寻的那种接触政策没有在中国境内带来尼克松总统所希望引导的那种改变。
  事实是,我们的政策,还有其它自由国家的政策,重振了中国失败的经济,看到的却是北京反咬喂食给它的国际之手。
  蓬佩奥国务卿在尼克松总统图书馆发表题为《共产中国与自由世界的未来》的演说。(2020年7月23日)
  蓬佩奥国务卿在尼克松总统图书馆发表题为《共产中国与自由世界的未来》的演说。(2020年7月23日)
  我们向中国公民张开了双臂,换来的却是中共利用我们自由与开放的社会。中国派出宣传手进入我们的记者会、我们的研究中心、我们的高中和大学,甚至进入我们家长教师协会的会议。
  我们把我们在台湾的朋友边缘化,台湾后来成长为一个生机勃勃的民主。
  我们给予中国共产党及其政权本身特殊的经济待遇,看到的却是中共坚持要求在其践踏人权的问题上保持沉默,把这作为允许西方公司进入中国的代价。
  就在前些天,奥布莱恩大使提出了几个例子:万豪、美国航空、达美和美联航都从它们的公司网站上删除了提到台湾的地方,以免触怒北京。
  离此不远的好莱坞,—这个美国创意自由的中心和自封的社会公正的仲裁者,对哪怕是中国稍微不利的说法都实行自我审查。
  企业界对中共的默默接受在全世界各地都在发生。
  企业界的这种效忠效果如何?这种奉承得到了回报吗?我来引用司法部长巴尔上星期的演说中的一句话,他说:"中国统治者的终极企图不是与美国进行贸易。它是抢掠美国。"
  中国窃取我们珍视的知识产权和商业秘密,使美国各地损失了数以百万计的就业岗位。
  它从美国吸走了供应链,然后加上了奴工器具。
  它使世界的关键水道对国际商贸不那么安全了。
  尼克松总统曾说,他担心,他把这个世界向中共开放,创造了一个"怪物弗兰肯斯坦"。而这就是我们所处的局面。
  诚信者可以辩论为什么这么多年来自由国家会允许这些坏事发生。也许我们当初对中国的共产主义毒株过于天真,或者冷战之后,我们相信自己必胜,或者我们是贪婪的资本家,或者被北京的"和平崛起"言论所蒙蔽。
  无论什么原因,中国今天在国内越来越威权,而且越来越咄咄逼人地敌视世界其它地方的自由。
  特朗普总统已经说了:够了。
  我不认为两党中有很多人对我今天所举出的事实提出质疑。但是即使是现在,有些人还在坚持说,我们必须保留那种为了对话而对话的模式。
  现在,要明确说明的是,我们会坚持对话。但是如今的交谈不一样了。几个星期前,我去檀香山见了杨洁篪。
  还是老一套,话说了很多,但真的是没有提出要改变任何行为。杨的承诺,跟中共在他之前做出的很多承诺一样,是空洞的。我猜测,他的预期是,我会屈从于他们的要求,因为坦率地说,太多以往的行政当局都这样做了。我没有。特朗普总统也不会。
  奥布莱恩大使阐述得很好,我们必须记住,中共政权是马克思-列宁主义政权。习近平总书记是一个破产的极权主义意识形态的真正信仰者。
  他的意识形态决定了他数十年来对中国共产主义全球霸权的渴望。美国不能再忽视我们两国之间政治和意识形态的根本不同了,就像中共从来也没有忽视它们一样。
  我在众议院情报委员会任职、随后担任中央情报局局长以及出任国务卿两年多来的经历让我有了这样的核心理解:
  真正改变共产中国的唯一方式就是以中国领导人如何表现而不是说什么为基础来采取行动。你可以看到美国的政策对这个结论做出回应。里根总统说,他本着"信任但要核实"跟苏联打交道。对中共,我的说法是:"我们必须不信任,而且要核实。"
  我们这些世界上热爱自由的国家,必须引导中国做出改变,就像尼克松总统所要的那样。我们必须以更具创造性而且更为强势的方式引导中国做出改变,因为北京的所作所为威胁着我们的人民与我们的繁荣。
  我们必须从改变我国人民与合作伙伴对中国共产党的看法开始。我们必须说实话。我们不能像对待其他国家一样,把这个中国的化身当作一个正常的国家。
  我们知道,与中国进行贸易不像与一个正常、守法的国家进行贸易。北京把国际协议视为建议,作为获得全球主导地位的渠道。
  但是,通过坚持公平条款,就像我们的贸易代表在达成第一阶段贸易协议时所做的那样,我们可以迫使中国正视其盗窃知识产权和伤害美国工人的政策。
  我们也知道,与中共支持的公司做生意与一家公司、比如一家加拿大公司做生意是不一样的。他们不听从于独立的董事会,而且很多公司是国家赞助的,不需要追求利润。
  一个好的例子就是华为。我们已经不再假装华为是一个无辜的电信公司,它只是来确保你能和你的朋友交谈。我们以它本来的面目来称它 — 一个真正的国家安全威胁 —而且我们采取了相应的行动。
  我们也知道,如果我们的公司在中国投资,他们可能有意或无意地支持共产党对人权的严重侵犯。
  我们的财政部和商务部因此对中国领导人以及正在伤害和侵犯世界各地人民基本权利的实体进行制裁并将他们列入黑名单。好几个政府部门合作制定了一个商业咨询公告,以确保我们的首席执行官了解他们的供应链在中国境内的运作情况。
  我们也知道,并不是所有的中国学生和雇员都是来这里只是为了多挣一点钱或者多为自己积累一些知识的正常学生或工作人员,他们中有太多的人是来盗窃我们的知识产权并它们带回自己的国家。
  司法部和其他部门已经在大力寻求惩罚这些罪行。
  现在我们知道,中国人民解放军也不是一支正常的军队。它的目的是维护中国共产党精英的绝对统治,拓展中华帝国,而不是保护中国人民。
  因此,美国国防部加强了在东中国海、南中国海以及台湾海峡的自由航行行动。我们建立了太空军来帮助阻遏中国侵略太空这个最后边疆。
  坦率地说,我们在国务院也建立了一套与中国打交道的政策,推动特朗普总统的公平对等的目标,改写几十年来不断增加的失衡。
  就在本星期,我们宣布关闭中国在休斯顿的领事馆,因为那里是间谍活动和知识产权盗窃的中心。
  两个星期前,我们逆转了八年来在有关南中国海国际法问题上的那种右脸被打转过左脸的做法。
  我们已经呼吁中国使其核能力符合我们这个时代的战略现实。
  国务院在各个层级而且在世界各地与我们的中国同行进行接触,只是为了要求公平和对等。
  但我们的作法不能只是一味强硬。这不大可能达到我们想要的结果。我们还必须与中国人民进行接触,并赋予他们力量,—他们是充满活力、热爱自由的人民,与中国共产党完全不同。
  这要从面对面的外交开始。无论走到哪里,我都遇到了才华横溢、勤奋努力的中国男性和女性。
  我见过从新疆集中营逃出来的维吾尔人和哈萨克族人。我和香港的民主领袖们交谈过,从陈枢机主教到黎智英。两天前,我在伦敦与香港自由斗士罗冠聪会面。上个月,我听到了天安门广场幸存者的故事。其中一位今天就在这里。
  王丹是一名关键的学生,他从未停止为中国人民的自由而斗争。王先生,请站起来,我们好认出你来。
  今天和我们在一起的还有中国的民主运动之父魏京生。他因为倡导民主而在中国的劳改营里度过了几十年。魏先生,请站起来,好吗?
  我在冷战时期长大并在陆军服役。如果我学到了什么的话,那就是,共产党人几乎总是撒谎。他们撒的最大的一个谎言是,要认为他们是在为14亿被监视、压迫和恐吓得不敢说出真相的人民说话。
  恰恰相反。中共对中国人民诚实意见的恐惧甚于任何敌人。除了失去对权力的掌控之外,他们没有理由恐惧。
  试想一下,假如我们能够听到武汉医生们的声音,假如他们被允许对一种新型的冠状病毒的爆发发出警报,全世界,更不要提中国境内的人,会好得多。
  在太长的时间里,我们的领导人忽视或淡化勇敢的中国异见人士的言论,他们就我们面临的这个政权的性质警告过我们。
  我们不能再忽视它了。他们和任何人一样清楚,我们永远不可能回到现状了。
  但是,改变中国共产党的行为不可能仅仅是中国人民的使命。自由国家有捍卫自由的工作要做。这绝不是轻而易举的事情。
  但我有信心我们能做到。我有信心,因为我们以前做过。我们知道事情会怎么发展。
  我有信心,因为中国共产党正在重复苏联曾经犯过的一些错误—疏远潜在的盟友,在国内外破坏信任,拒绝接受产权和具有可预见性的法治。
  我有信心。我有信心是因为我看到其他国家的觉醒,他们知道我们不可能回到过去,就像我们在美国一样。从布鲁塞尔到悉尼到河内,我都听到这个信息。
  最重要的是,我有信心我们能够捍卫自由,因为自由本身就是一种甜美的吸引力。
  在中国共产党加强对香港这座骄傲的城市的控制时,看看那些争相着要移民海外的香港人吧。他们挥舞的是美国国旗。
  的确是有差异。与苏联不同的是,中国已经深深地融入了全球经济。但北京对我们的依赖比我们对他们的依赖更大。
  我拒绝这样的看法,即我们生活在一个势在难免的时代,某些"陷阱"是命中注定的,共产党的主宰地位是未来。我们的做法并非注定要失败,因为美国并没有在衰落。正如我今年早些时候在慕尼黑所说的,自由世界仍在获胜。我们只需要相信这一点,知道这一点,而且对此感到自豪。
  世界各地的人们仍然希望来到开放的社会。他们来这里学习。他们来这里工作,他们来这里为他们的家庭开创美好的生活。他们并不急于在中国定居。
  现在是时候了。今天很高兴来到这里。时机很好。现在是自由国家采取行动的时候了。不是每个国家都会以同样的方式应对中国的挑战,他们也不应该如此。每个国家都必须自己悟出如何保护自己的主权、如何保护自己的经济繁荣以及如何保护它的理念不被中共的触角所染指。
  但我呼吁每一个国家的每一位领导人开始做美国已经在做的事情,—那就是坚持从中国共产党那里得到对等、透明和问责。他们是一小伙统治者,远非铁板一块。
  这些简单但强有力的标准将会产生巨大的效果。我们让中共来制定接触条件的时间已经太久了。已经不再是这样了。自由国家必须设定基调,我们必须在同样的原则上运作。
  我们必须划定不会被中共的讨价还价和甜言蜜语所冲洗掉的共同底线。事实上,美国最近就是这么做的…我们一劳永逸地拒绝接受中国在南中国海海的非法声索…同时,我们敦促各国成为洁净国家,这样他们公民的私人信息就不会落入中国共产党的手中。我们通过设定标准来做到这一点。
  的确,这是困难的。对于一些小国来说,这是困难的。他们害怕被一一干掉。因为这个原因,一些国家此刻根本就没有能力或是勇气与我们站在一起。
  的确,我们的一个北约盟国在香港问题上没有以应有的方式挺身而出,因为他们害怕北京会限制他们进入中国市场。这种胆怯将导致历史性的失败。我们不能重蹈覆辙。
  我们不能重复过去几年的错误。面对中国的挑战,需要欧洲、非洲、南美、特别是印度-太平洋地区的民主国家使出力气,投入精力。
  如果我们现在不行动,最终,中国共产党将侵蚀我们的自由,颠覆我们各国社会辛辛苦苦建立起来的基于规则的秩序。如果我们现在屈膝,我们的子孙后代可能会受中国共产党的摆布,他们的行动是当今自由世界的首要挑战。
  中国的习总书记注定不会永远在中国内外施行暴政,除非我们允许这种情况发生。
  这不是关于遏制。不要相信这个。这是关于我们从未面对过的一个复杂的新挑战:苏联当时与自由世界是隔绝的。共产中国已经在我们的境内了。
  所以我们不能独自面对这个挑战。联合国、北约、七国集团、20国集团,如果我们有明确的方向和巨大的勇气,我们的经济、外交和军事力量的结合肯定足以应对这一挑战。
  也许是时候建立一个志同道合国家的新联盟了,一个新的民主联盟。
  我们有工具。我知道我们能够做到。现在我们需要的是意志。我要引用《圣经》里的一句话来问:"我们的心灵固然愿意,肉体却软弱了?"
  如果自由世界不改变共产中国,共产中国肯定会改变我们。不能仅仅因为过去的做法舒服或方便就回到这些做法。
  从中国共产党手中确保我们的自由是我们这个时代的使命,而美国处于领导这个使命的最佳位置,因为我们的建国原则给了我们这个机会。
  正如上星期我定睛站在费城独立厅时所解释的那样,我们的国家建立在这样的前提上,即人人拥有某些不可剥夺的权利。
  保障这些权利是政府的职责。这一简单而有力的事实已使美国成为包括中国在内的全世界人民所向往的自由灯塔。
  理查德o尼克松在1967年写道:" 除非中国改变,世界不会安全。"他说的太对了。现在要靠我们来听从他的话了。
  今天,危险显而易见。
  今天,觉醒正在发生。
  今天,自由世界必须做出回应。
  我们永远也不能回到过去。
  愿上帝保佑你们每一个人!
  愿上帝保佑中国人民!
  愿上帝保佑美利坚合众国的人民!
  谢谢大家!

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22457

Stronger ties with Washington won’t buy time for Taiwan

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作者:周文星  来源:环球时报英文版

Taiwan’s 36th annual Han Kuang military exercise, the island’s largest military drill, kicked off on July 13 based on the scenario of an "invasion" by the mainland military. But what deserves much more attention is the US role behind the island’s display of its military power.

Under the leadership of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan’s refusal to accept the one-China principle and its rejection of Beijing’s reunification efforts have gained growing support from Washington. Since US President Donald Trump took office in 2017, the US has been increasingly improving its political and particularly military relations with the island of Taiwan.

The Trump administration just approved its seventh deal of arms sales to Taiwan earlier this month. This makes the Trump administration the most pro-Taiwan US administration since Richard Nixon. The total sum and frequency of military sales to the island of Taiwan have rarely been seen since Washington diplomatically recognized Beijing in 1979. Besides, US warships frequently sail through the Taiwan Straits, aggravating regional tensions and leading to regional instability.

In addition, the US Congress has introduced more than 50 Taiwan-related bills and resolutions in the past three and half years. Six have been enacted, including the Taiwan Travel Act, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019, and three National Defense Authorization Acts for fiscal year 2018-2021. All of these laws and bills advocate a stronger and more comprehensive Washington-Taiwan relationship, including the enhancement of the so-called defense relationship.

The pro-Taiwan policy that Washington has adopted has resulted in huge influence on the cross-Straits ties.

First, it has affected the party politics on the island. US support undoubtedly consolidates Tsai Ing-wen’s power and her party’s ruling foundation on the one hand, while undermining the mainland-friendly Kuomintang’s (KMT) political power base on the other. Tsai could not be successful in her reelection bid in 2020 without the US support. This makes the prospect of a détente between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits more difficult.

More importantly, further US intervention in the Taiwan question encourages the Taipei authorities and separatists to take more aggressive actions. These trends have led to the deterioration of political and security situations across the Taiwan Straits. As the latest report by the International Crisis Group reveals, continued US military presence makes the Taiwan Straits one of a few places with a "deteriorating situation."

The reason for Washington’s unprecedented interference in Taiwan is mainly due to the structural changes in the US-China relations. One may have noticed that when bilateral ties developed smoothly in the 1970s and 1980s, Washington remained relatively restrained on the Taiwan question. However, when the US-China ties soured, and especially since China has been treated as a strategic competitor, the US was more likely to step in China’s domestic affairs and use Taiwan as a strategic "card" to balance against the Chinese mainland -  as the George W. Bush administration did well before the 9/11 attacks. In a nutshell, Taiwan is nothing but a card that will be played by the US against the mainland whenever Washington finds it expedient to do so.

Deteriorating US-China relations make the Taiwan card relevant again in US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy. Indeed, the island of Taiwan has been viewed in Washington as an ally against Beijing within the framework of the Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, the military balance has already tilted toward the favor of the Chinese mainland.

During the Han Kuang drills, two pilots of a Taiwan military helicopter were killed on Thursday when their aircraft crashed in the north of the island. The military mishap during the Han Kuang drills indicates that Taiwan’s most important war games are becoming increasingly unrealistic. It also shows a widening military gap across the Taiwan Straits. In the face of a rising China, a stronger relationship with Washington won’t buy time for Taipei.

US political elites must realize that interfering in China’s internal affairs is never an appropriate way to compete with the latter. It only complicates the Taiwan question, adds tensions in the Taiwan Straits, and increases regional instability. Instead, they should cooperate with their counterparts on the Chinese mainland on global issues such as the current pandemic raging across the world. Only by doing this can the US strengthen its global leadership and help maintain the peace and stability of the Taiwan Straits.
""

The author is now a research fellow at Shang Dao Institute for Social Research. He holds a doctorate in Public Administration from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and was Asia Fellow at Harvard University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/22

旧文章ID:22456

中评网:蓬佩奥在尼克松故居宣告对华接触政策失败

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作者:  来源:中评网

余东晖)在打破美中关系坚冰,开启对华接触政策的美国前总统尼克松的故居,美国国务卿蓬佩奥23日正式宣告美国对华接触政策“失败”,并提出“不信任并核查”策略,鼓动“自由世界”联手对抗“共产党中国”。

位于加州约巴·林达的尼克松图书馆暨博物馆,也是尼克松的出生成长地和长眠之地。蓬佩奥23日代表特朗普政府在此发表主题为“共产党中国与自由世界的未来”的对华政策专题演讲,就特朗普政府以意识形态划界,试图组成“理念相近国家的民主联盟”,来对抗共产党执政的中国,做出政策宣示。

这是继国安顾问奥布莱恩、联邦调查局长雷、司法部长巴尔之后,特朗普政府近期针对中国的第四个专题演讲,也是最综合的一次政策宣示。耐心寻味的是,蓬佩奥是在将打开美中关系大门作为重要遗产的尼克松长眠之地,宣告尼克松这个重要遗产的“失败”。

在基辛格秘密访华在2021年、尼克松破冰之旅于2022年即将迎来50周年之际,蓬佩奥在演讲一开始就宣告,美中关系近几十年来生成了巨大的不平衡,“中国共产党的霸权策划”,“世界与尼克松时代大不相同”。

“我们曾设想,与中国的接触将创造一个充满礼让与合作承诺的光明未来,”蓬佩奥说起美国人原来的愿望,发出四连问:现在要回答的问题是:“对于50年来与中国的接触,美国人民必须向中国展示什么?我们的领导人提出的中国走向自由和民主的理论被证明是正确的吗?这是中国对‘双赢’的定义吗?美国更安全了吗?”

蓬佩奥宣告:“今天我们必须承认一个严酷的事实,这个事实将在未来几十年指导我们:与中国盲目接触的旧模式已经失败。我们不能继续这样做。我们决不能重蹈覆辙。”

虽然肯定尼克松当时有好的理由开始与中国接触,并称尼克松的目标是“引导中国变化”,但蓬佩奥坚称,尼克松的接触政策“对中国的好处甚于对美国的好处”,美国所追求的接触并没有给中国带来尼克松所希望的那种变化,而是相反。

对于特朗普政府新的策略,蓬佩奥以里根当年对待苏联“信任但核查”为例,提出现在对中国要“不信任并核查”(Distrust and Verify)。他认为,“自由世界”要以“有创意和果断的”方式,引导中方行为变化。

为此,蓬佩奥鼓吹从各个方面“不能以正常的国家来对待中国”。他称“新的国务院”在处理对华关系,以推动特朗普的“公平对等”目标,并提到了最新的关闭中国驻休斯敦领馆,改变美国对于南海问题的立场等举措。

在此次预期基调强硬的演讲之前,已有美国外交学界人士提出质疑。外交关系委员会主席哈斯批评蓬佩奥:张口闭口中国共产党,却不提中国,美国首席外交官这么做意味着对抗,使外交不可能,除非其目标是确保外交失败。主持人提问:这是你的目标吗?

蓬佩奥表示,中国共产党作为中国的执政者,美国必须与他们对话,但如果忽视他们的意识形态,就是对美国自己和中国人民“不尊敬”。他认为,“中国共产党”这个词已从美国人用语中消失,现在美国人需要重新熟悉。承认中国共产党有自己的信仰,蓬佩奥称“我们必须以一种反映出我们理解他们看待世界的方式来回应他们”,意指美国也应以意识形态来回应。

蓬佩奥拒绝特朗普政府现在对华手法注定要失败的说法,因为他认为,“美国并没有衰落”,“自由世界正在获胜”。他还鼓动所有国家学习美国,跟中国要“对等、透明和问责”,“我们要设定标准”。

说完种种对华强硬策略,蓬佩奥宣称“这与遏制无关”,但又说:“也许是时候建立一个理念相近的国家的新联盟了,一个新的民主联盟。”

在答问部分,主持人问:你说这不是遏制,而是一种相当全面、多维度、无情客观的直率。在一个不习惯清楚地谈论敏感话题的世界里,这样做危险吗?

蓬佩奥表示,最好的政策永远是真实的直率–确定红线,确定真正利益所在,弄清楚不感兴趣的地方和可以一起做的事情。他说,真正的危险来自误解和误会,“你可以通过对话来降低风险,只要你对此诚实···我不认为这是危险的,恰恰相反”。

演讲的最后,蓬佩奥总结道:“美国完全有能力帮助自由世界维护自由,这是我们时代的使命。”他以一个排比句做结束语:“今天,危险是显而易见的;今天,觉醒正在发生;今天,自由世界必须做出回应。我们再也回不去了。”
""

VOA:美国国务卿蓬佩奥在尼克松总统图书馆发表对华政策演讲(2020/7/23)

美国国务卿蓬佩奥周四在加州发表了有关美中关系的主题演讲,他呼吁中国人民改变中国共产党,并敦促志同道合的国家一致向中共施加压力。

蓬佩奥这次在尼克松总统图书馆的演讲题目是《共产中国与自由世界的未来》。他在演讲中强调了中国对美国和整个自由世界的威胁。

蓬佩奥指出,2022年是时任美国总统尼克松访华、中美关系逐步正常化50周年,但他表示,“与中国盲目接触的旧模式根本做不成事。我们绝不能延续这个模式。我们决不能重回这个模式。”

蓬佩奥说:“他(习近平)的意识形态决定了他数十年来对中国共产主义全球霸权的渴望。美国不能再忽视我们两国之间政治和意识形态的根本不同了,就像中共从来也没有忽视它们一样。”

蓬佩奥表示,中国领导人“习近平总书记是一个破产的极权主义意识形态的真正信仰者”,相比任何“敌人”,共产党“对中国人民诚实意见的恐惧超过对任何敌人的恐惧”,美国“也必须接触中国人民并赋予他们力量”。

蓬佩奥的最新讲话延续了美国高级官员近期的对华喊话。随着美中关系降至近十年来的低点,特朗普政府对北京的压力也在不断增加,从经济制裁到军事演习。

本周,特朗普政府要求中国在周五前关闭中国休斯顿领馆,指责该领馆及其他中国外交使团从事经济间谍活动和签证欺诈。这一前所未有的举措令已在迅速恶化的美中紧张关系进一步升级。

蓬佩奥在周四的演讲中从政治、经济和军事等方面列举了中国种种破坏全球民主秩序的作法,称“中国今天在国内越来越威权,而且越来越咄咄逼人地敌视世界其它地方的自由。”

蓬佩奥呼吁盟国和中国人民与美国合作,改变中共的行为。

他说:“我们这些世界上热爱自由的国家,必须引导中国做出改变,就像尼克松总统所要的那样。我们必须以更具创造性而且更为强势的方式引导中国做出改变,因为北京的所作所为威胁着我们的人民与我们的繁荣。”

近几周,在美国的推动下,华盛顿的一些关键盟友开始对中国采取更为强硬的态度。他们谴责中国对新冠病毒的处理、在香港推出国安法、在新疆大规模拘留穆斯林和其他少数民族等。
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来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22451

受新冠疫情影响 特朗普宣布取消共和党全国代表大会

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作者:  来源:美国之音

特朗普总统星期四宣布,由于新冠疫情的升级,取消预定下个月在佛罗里达州举行的共和党全国代表大会,不过部分相关活动仍将在北卡罗莱纳州进行。

特朗普总统星期四在白宫新闻简报会上表示,“现在不是举行这个大会的时机”。特朗普总统上个月与北卡罗莱纳州民主党领导人针对不戴面罩支持者在室内举行活动发生争议后,决定将共和党大会多数议程移到佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔市举行。然而受到佛罗里达州和许多地区确诊病例增加的影响,相关计划逐步缩减。

部分共和党代表仍将聚集在北卡罗莱纳州的夏洛特,在8月24日正式提名特朗普为共和党总统候选人。特朗普表示,他将以不同以往的方式发表接受提名演说。

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22448

疫情下近八成美国选民可邮寄投票,特朗普得票会因此减少?

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作者:胡甄卿 王潇  来源:澎湃新闻

当下,全美深陷新冠肺炎疫情的泥潭之中,不仅各州疫情没有出现放缓的趋势,而且多地还出现了病例激增的情况,这使得民众担心定于2020年11月举行的美国大选恐无法正常进行。正因如此,在即将到来的大选中,出于防疫考虑,美国许多州将采取更加安全的邮寄选票渠道以替代现场投票,数以万计的选民将改变投票方式。

不过,改变投票方式的举动也引发了争议,现任总统特朗普抨击此举会造成选举舞弊,但与此同时,包括选举专家在内的多方人士并不认同特朗普的观点。那么,邮寄投票到底将如何进行?它会不会影响特朗普连任?

何处可邮寄投票?

《华盛顿邮报》7月22日报道称,截至22日,全美已有近1.8亿选民可以选择邮寄投票,这占到了全美选民总数的76%。

目前,全美34个州和首都华盛顿特区已经允许任何人无理由缺席现场投票,而其中许多州还在努力将邮寄投票的过程简易化,许多州将向每一个登记选民发送选票缺席申请,科罗拉多州选举机构已经表示将开始积极主动地向登记选民开展选票邮寄工作,加州也指出该州将紧跟科罗拉多州的步伐。

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然而,对于得克萨斯州、密西西比州与纽约州等9个州的选民来说,亲自到场投票仍然是唯一的选择,除非他们可以提供一个与害怕新冠疫情无关的理由,传统的缺席现场投票理由包括军事部署与生病等。

值得注意的是,许多南部的州仍然不允许将但新冠肺炎疫情作为缺席现场投票的借口,这其中大部分是支持特朗普的“红州”,比如得克萨斯州与路易斯安那州。不过“蓝州”中也有例外,如康涅狄格州和纽约州也不允许选民缺席现场投票。

"在上图根据2016年票选结果划分的投票方式分类中可以看出,一个州是否采用邮寄投票与该州选民支持民主党还是共和党并无直接关系。"

在上图根据2016年票选结果划分的投票方式分类中可以看出,一个州是否采用邮寄投票与该州选民支持民主党还是共和党并无直接关系。

《华盛顿邮报》分析称,虽然近年来几个曾在2016年总统大选中支持希拉里的“蓝州”(指2016年大选时希拉里得票率超过特朗普5%的州)一直在普遍使用邮寄方式进行投票,但是支持彼时胜选的特朗普的“红州”也是如此,如犹他州便一直可以邮寄投票。

总体而言,美国西海岸沿岸(“蓝州”为主)几乎都采取了邮寄选票形式。仍需理由才能缺席现场投票的州则集中在南部和东北部,其中“红州”(2016年特朗普获胜的州)就有7个,占了近80%。

除“蓝州”与“红州”之外,还有一些“紫州”,这指的是2016年大选中特朗普与希拉里得票率接近的州,即传统意义上的摇摆州,这些州的选民在今年的大选中全部可以邮寄选票。

值得注意的是,新冠疫情使得投票方式发生了一定的变化。2018年中期选举时,只有25%的选民曾使用邮寄选票,他们大多居住在少数几个州,其中俄勒冈州是第一个允许邮寄投票的州,该州几乎所有投票的人都是通过邮寄投票的。不过彼时在大多数州,只有不到10%的选民支持邮寄投票这一做法,其中肯塔基州、西弗吉尼亚州、田纳西州、阿肯色州这四个同处中东部的相邻州邮寄投票率最低。

到了2020年,此前不太使用邮寄投票的田纳西州与阿肯色州转而完全采用了这一方式,而俄勒冈州、华盛顿州、科罗拉多州和犹他州这些原本邮寄投票率极高的州则依旧采用邮寄投票的形式。

"橙色表示今年投票方式做出改变的州,灰色表示维持原先投票方式的州。"

橙色表示今年投票方式做出改变的州,灰色表示维持原先投票方式的州。

邮寄投票对特朗普不利?

《华盛顿邮报》指出,为了应对新冠疫情,目前全美近半数的州都在2020年上半年的初选后扩大了邮寄选票的渠道,一个州要么允许选民对担心疫情作为缺席现场投票的理由,要么主动向每一位登记选民发送申请或选票。当下很少有人在争取完全恢复往年的那种常规大选,因为这一举措越来越带有党派色彩,而且会引发争议甚至诉讼。

对于邮寄投票这一议题,现任总统特朗普曾多次在没有给出依据的情况下声称,邮寄投票将造成“广泛的权力滥用与欺诈”,还将有利于民主党总统候选人击败自己。美国广播公司(ABC)19日报道称,在过去4个月的初选中,多个州的选举机构确实出现了迟迟无法收到选民的邮寄投票等问题,这主要源于疫情之下选民保持社交疏离,但更多还应归因于各州投票系统基础设施与服务的落后。对于其中的投票漏洞,各州短期内很难填补,有关打压选票的争论也很难停止。这也为今年11月3日的大选埋下了隐患。

不过,“美国之音”(VOA)此前刊文指出,多项研究表明,虽然邮寄投票在实际操作中仍有问题,但就结果而言,邮寄投票不会给任何一方带来优势。选举专家以及共和党内许多人也认为邮寄投票不利于特朗普这一讲法毫无根据,这些人还正在努力在2020年的大选中推行大规模邮寄投票。

《华盛顿邮报》最近的一项分析也发现,在2016年总统大选和2018年中期选举中通过邮寄投出的约1460万张选票中,仅有372起可能存在欺诈行为,这一数量相较于总量而言可以说是微不足道,因而特朗普的得票率不会因为单单一个投票方式发生变化而走低或走高。

邮寄投票可否顺利进行?

不过,即便邮寄投票的结果被证明是可信的,大规模采用邮寄投票方式来举行大选在流程上可否顺利进行仍有争议。

即使在那些没有让缺席现场投票变得更容易的州,请求邮寄投票的选民数量仍有望激增。为了应对这一挑战,各州选举官员将不得不运用有限的资金和人力克服大规模铺开邮寄投票方式造成的重重障碍,如他们必须获得大量邮寄投票所需的专用信封和纸张,除此之外还需要额外的工作人员来处理选票收发事宜,在某些情况下还需要打开机器对邮寄选票进行分类和制表,并核实签名。不仅这些工作人员需要接受培训,而且选民也需要在选举过程中接受相应的教育。

这些出人意料的选举开支无疑会使得连年资金不足又遭新冠疫情冲击预算的地方政府以及选举管理部门难上加难。

无党派非营利组织“在家投票”(Vote at Home)的首席执行官安伯•麦克雷诺兹(Amber Mc Reynolds)直言:“他们(政府)没有大规模邮寄投票所需的工作人员和足够的设备。这些原本都不是什么新问题,但在新冠疫情影响之下,它会加剧事态恶化。”

邮寄选举能否顺利完成并在短时间内被认可,对于许多州都是一个挑战。“像夏威夷和俄勒冈州这样的‘邮寄投票第一’州,它们花了数年时间才完全适应这一投票方式。”前选举官员、现为一非营利基金会的高级顾问塔米·帕特里克(Tammy Patrick)说。

美国国土安全部为选举官员制定的时间表显示,扩大邮寄投票的进程应该在4月份开始。对此,帕特里克表示,虽然各州仍有可能适应邮寄投票这一方式,但是“做出这些改变的时间已经所剩无几”。

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/24

旧文章ID:22445

美国国务院副国务卿比根在参议院作证谈中美关系

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作者:Stephen Biegen  来源:美国参议院网站

点击这里下载英文原文。

来源时间:2020/7/24   发布时间:2020/7/22

旧文章ID:22443

这场中美新冷战是如何酝酿爆发的

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作者:RICK GLADSTONE  来源:纽约时报中文网

中美两国关系已经降至自40多年前外交正常化以来的最严峻水平,美国政府命令中国关闭其休斯敦领事馆是这种恶化的最新迹象。

尽管特朗普多次表达对中国国家主席习近平的仰慕,但他的政府治下,两国在国防、贸易、科技、人权及其他领域的各种行动与报复迅速升级。

特朗普政府甚至在考虑一项针对中国的执政党——中国共产党9200万党员的全面旅行禁令,禁止他们进入美国,并且可能驱逐目前在美国的中共党员,这一举动很可能导致前往中国及在该国居住的美国人遭到报复。

“我认为我们正处在一个危险且急转直下的局面,这的确是事出有因,但却没有适当的外交手段来中止这个局面,”亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)说。他说,这一对抗的严重性“已经超越特定的、可解决的挑战的范畴,变成了体系和价值的冲突”。

美中贸易全国委员会(U.S.-China Business Council)主席克雷格·艾伦(Craig Allen)表示,他为两个经济产出总和占全球40%的超级大国之间越来越多的恶语相向所震惊。“如果我们向对方大喊、摔门,那么这个世界是很不稳定的,企业没法做规划,”他说。

过去几年来发生了什么,导致紧张关系恶化?这里是事件一览:

新冠病毒和反华种族主义

特朗普和他的下属将最先出现在中国中部城市武汉的这种病毒的传播归咎于中国。他们多次用种族歧视和污名化的说法描述这一病毒,将其称为“武汉病毒”、“中国病毒”和“功夫病毒”。

7月4日,特朗普说中国“必须负全责”。特朗普政府还停止向世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)拨款,并下令切断与该组织的关系,指责其纵容中国最初的疫情应对不足。周日,司法部指控中国黑客试图窃取关于美国病毒疫苗研究方面的信息。

中方则否认特朗普在病毒方面的职责,并批评美国对疫情应对不力。中国政府宣传机构还在传播了一种没有证据的对立说法,称在去年10月前往武汉的美国士兵可能是病毒源头。

对贸易关系的严峻考验

特朗普2016年胜选的部分原因,是他对中国通过贸易逆差利用中美贸易关系的指控。就任期间,他颁布了一系列针对中国商品的惩罚性关税,中国也予以了报复,这场贸易战已持续了两年多。尽管今年1月,两国签署了特朗普政府所谓的“第一阶段”贸易协定,实际上宣布贸易战休战,但大多数关税并没有被解除。

南海的较量

对中国在南海大部(包括重要的海上航线)的主权主张和控制,特朗普政府发起了越来越多的挑战。就在上周,称中国为重大安全威胁的国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)宣布,中国在南海的大部分主张都“完全不合法”,有可能引发中美海军在太平洋的军事冲突。

一场围绕科技的战斗愈演愈烈

长期以来,美国历届政府一直指控中国窃取美国技术。特朗普的白宫则进一步升级指控,寻求将中国最大的科技公司华为列入国际黑名单,称其是中国渗透他国通信基础设施以获得战略优势的幌子。

自2018年12月以来,一纸以欺诈指控为名的引渡令导致华为首席技术官孟晚舟一直被拘禁在加拿大。上周,英国宣布将与美国一道禁止其高速无线网络使用华为产品。

驱逐记者和其他媒体工作者

特朗普政府指责中国国有媒体煽动宣传,严格限制在美国为中国新闻机构工作的中国公民人数。作为报复,中国下令驱逐了《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和《华尔街日报》的记者,并采取了其他措施,表明会给美国媒体进入中国设置更多障碍。由于担心在中国工作的记者可能会受到进一步限制,《纽约时报》已于上周宣布将其在香港的主要新闻业务迁至韩国首尔。

驱逐留学生

据了解该计划的美国官员介绍,特朗普政府已经采取措施,取消与中国人民解放军下属大学有直接联系的数千名在美中国研究生和研究人员的签证。这样的驱逐预示着教育限制进一步缩紧,中国政府还可能通过对美国人实施签证禁令来进行报复。

打压香港的民主自由

去年11月,特朗普在两党支持下签署立法,可能对镇压香港民主倡议人士的中国和香港官员进行惩罚,中国曾承诺让这座前英国殖民地和亚洲金融中心拥有一定程度的自治权。

5月,中国通过了一项全面的新国安法,可以用来遏制任何被中国视为煽动性质的言论形式,那之后,特朗普称他将采取措施终止美国对香港的贸易优待。中国当局谴责了这些措施,并表示要进行报复。

镇压新疆维吾尔族穆斯林

因中国在新疆对主要为穆斯林维吾尔族的少数民族进行的人权侵犯,特朗普政府于本月对数位中国官员进行了制裁,其中包括一名共产党高级官员。

北京承诺对其认为在新疆问题上有“恶劣”行为的美国机构与个人进行报复,新疆是位于中国西部的广袤地区,当局将百万人民安置在劳动营,并对其他人实施侵入性监控。

其他长期分歧:台湾和西藏

对中国政府来说,美国以保护居住在中国任何地方的人民的名义所采取的行动,是对中国内政的公然干涉——这种不满有着很深的历史根源,可以追溯到19世纪中国与帝国主义列强的斗争。

5月,特朗普政府批准了对台湾的1.8亿美元军售,这是激怒中国当局的一笔规模更大的军火交易的一部分,中国将这一自治岛屿视为其领土的一部分。中国愤怒的另一个长期根源,则是美国对流亡的西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛的尊崇,位于中国偏远西部的西藏曾是一个喜马拉雅王国。

2018年,特朗普签署了一项法案,对限制美国官员、记者和其他公民自由进入西藏地区的中国官员进行惩罚。去年11月,国务院国际宗教自由无任所大使萨缪尔·D·布朗巴克(Samuel D. Brownback)警告称,只有西藏人才能为本月年满85岁的达赖喇嘛选择继任者,从而引发了与声称有权选择继任者的北京的又一场冲突。

Rick Gladstone是时报驻纽约的国际新闻编辑和作者。自1997年以来,他一直为《纽约时报》工作,起初担任商业版编辑。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @rickgladstone。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22455