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牛弹琴:关键时刻,中越开了一次很特殊的视频会议

作者:牛弹琴  来源:作者微信公号

关键时刻,中越开了一次很特殊的视频会议。

这就是7月21日召开的中越双边合作指导委员会第十二次会议。

确实很特殊。根据外交部网站和新华社报道,几个有意思的观察点吧。
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一,特殊的方式。

会议由两位副国级外长主持,中方是国务委员兼外交部长王毅,越方是副总理兼外长范平明。

以前,这种外交会谈,都是面对面,双方坐下来谈,有握手有合影,还有觥筹交错;但今年没办法,只能是视频会议,一方在北京,另一方在河内。

这也算是今年国际会议的一大创新。

二,特殊的机制。

刚才查了一下,中越双边合作指导委员会,在2006年的双十一,举行了第一次会议。

当时新华社的通稿这样报道:

这次会议讨论并确定了委员会的职能、组成和运作等事项。委员会将加强对现有合作机制的宏观指导,总体统筹两国各领域合作,协调解决合作中出现的重大问题。委员会原则上每年举行一次会议,轮流在两国举行。

换言之,这个高规格的委员会,统筹中越各领域合作,协调解决合作中出现的重大问题。

小问题就算了,要谈的都是重大问题。

这应该也是中越关系上的一个创举。

三,特殊的内容。

这也是这次会议,最大的特殊。

坦率地说,因为众所周知的原因,每次会议,都不可避免要谈到海洋分歧与合作。

比如,在上次会议上,根据新华社通稿,王毅当时提出了四点建议,其中最后一条就是:要妥为化解矛盾分歧,防止出现损害双方政治互信的事态。着眼长远,稳步推进海上合作……

但今年的这次会议,显然谈得更多,更有针对性。

根据外交部网站,有这样一长段的相关表述:

关于南海问题,王毅表示,南海是我们的共同家园,中国和东盟是永久的近邻,求和平、促发展是我们的共同心愿。中国的南海政策没有变化,保持着连续性和稳定性。美国出于地缘战略需要,四处煽风点火,不断派遣大型舰机在此耀武扬威,目的就是要挑起南海紧张动荡,破坏地区国家团结,搅黄各国和区域发展前景,地区国家需要高度警惕。中越要按照两党两国最高领导人达成的共识,坚持通过双边对话协商管控分歧,按照双方签署的一系列协议,寻求公平合理的解决方案。中越还应同其他东盟国家一道,遵守《南海各方行为宣言》,推进“南海行为准则”磋商,不给外部势力的干扰破坏以任何可乘之机。

此外,王毅还说了这样一段:

美国内一些极端势力最近蓄意挑起意识形态之争,甚至胁迫各国选边站队,试图捡起臭名昭著的“麦卡锡主义”,逆历史潮流而动。这些人的自我表演还会继续,但世人都会看清其在世界上制造分裂对抗的险恶用心。

意思,应该也是很清楚的:

1,美国四处煽风点火,目的就是要挑起南海紧张动荡,破坏地区团结。美国最近挑起意识形态之争,也会针对越南。越南,你也要高度警惕。

2,南海是我们的共同家园。中国的南海政策没有变化,保持着连续性和稳定性。这一点,越南,你应该很清楚。

3,中越要通过对话协商管控分歧,寻求公平合理解决方案,不给外部势力任何可乘之机。中越,都要这样做。

如果没记错的话,这也是这个指导委员会12次会议,通稿中第一次这样点美国的大名。

今年情况确实很不一般。

就在这次视频会议前不久,美国在南海举行了所谓双航母演习,炫耀挑衅的意味相当明显。而且,美国当下特殊的政治生态,让世界越来越看到“麦卡锡主义”的影子。

越南也看在眼里,所以,根据外交部通稿:

范平明介绍了越方在海上问题的立场,表示愿同中方共同维护南海和平稳定,推动海上合作和共同发展,这符合越中双方的利益,也是域内外国家的普遍愿望。

实事求是地说,所谓越方介绍了在海上问题的立场,外交语言的背后,其实就是中越在南海问题上的分歧。

这种分歧也不是一天两天了,外界都知道。

更要看到,越南也明确表态,愿同中方共同维护南海和平稳定,推动海上合作和共同发展。越南还点出,这样才符合两国共同利益,也是域内外国家的普遍愿望。

确实,南海问题失控,域内国家没有一个会是赢家。

当然,这次特殊会议,还有一点很重要。

四,特殊的背景。

或者说,制度的优势。

根据外交部网站通稿,王毅对范平明这样说:

疫情发生以来,中越双方发挥各自制度优势,先后有效控制疫情,两国贸易今年上半年逆势增长18%以上,显示出双边合作巨大空间和互补优势,值得双方珍惜。

王毅接着说:

中越都是共产党领导的社会主义国家。虽然各自国情不同,但坚持党的领导和社会主义制度,是两国人民作出的选择,也是两国的立国之本,符合双方的共同和根本利益。

看似很寻常,但王毅的话,很有外交艺术性的,或者说,内涵相当丰富。


一句话,我们有共同和根本的利益,有制度的优势,有合作的巨大潜力,中越要珍惜啊。

所以,范平明也明确表态:

越南一贯将发展对华关系作为越南对外政策的头等优先,积极评价两国合作近年来取得的一系列进展,对越中关系发展前景充满信心。

越南作为共产党领导的社会主义国家,将坚持把走社会主义道路视为实现自身发展的指南针。

态度还是很积极的。

怎么看?

最后,老规矩,三点粗浅看法吧:

第一,中越有分歧,有各自不同的国家利益,这是事实;但另一个不争的事实是,中越关系很特别:都是共产党领导的社会主义国家。如果真被美国挑拨离间成功,那就太不应该了。

第二,中越更要管控好分歧,用王毅的话说,不给外部势力的干扰破坏以任何可乘之机。外部是哪个?大家都很清楚。越南,肯定有自己的盘算,但还是要清醒,要认清形势和根本利益。当然,中国也要积极做好周边国家工作。

第三,可以说,这是在特殊时间特殊背景下,以特殊方式召开的一次特殊的会议,对中越关系将产生特殊的效果。但美国会善罢甘休吗?我们也别有幻想,树欲静而风不止,博弈和斗争还将继续。

中越双边合作指导委员会举行第十二次会议

外交部网站,2020-07-21

2020年7月21日,中国-越南双边合作指导委员会第十二次会议在北京举行,国务委员兼外长王毅和越南副总理兼外长范平明共同主持。


王毅表示,中方始终从战略和长远角度重视对越合作。新冠疫情发生以来,中越双方发挥各自制度优势,先后有效控制疫情,两国贸易今年上半年逆势增长18%以上,显示出双边合作巨大空间和互补优势,值得双方珍惜。范平明重申,越南一贯将发展对华关系作为越南对外政策的头等优先,积极评价两国合作近年来取得的一系列进展,对越中关系发展前景充满信心。


王毅强调,中越都是共产党领导的社会主义国家。虽然各自国情不同,但坚持党的领导和社会主义制度,是两国人民作出的选择,也是两国的立国之本,符合双方的共同和根本利益。范平明表示,越南作为共产党领导的社会主义国家,将坚持把走社会主义道路视为实现自身发展的指南针。


王毅表示,美国内一些极端势力最近蓄意挑起意识形态之争,甚至胁迫各国选边站队,试图捡起臭名昭著的“麦卡锡主义”,逆历史潮流而动。这些人的自我表演还会继续,但世人都会看清其在世界上制造分裂对抗的险恶用心。


双方共同梳理总结了上次指导委员会会议以来开展的各项工作,分别就下阶段双边合作提出一系列有益建议,达成了诸多共识。一致同意以庆祝建交70周年为契机,继续加强战略沟通,推进抗疫等各领域合作,为两国关系健康、可持续发展注入新动力。


关于南海问题,王毅表示,南海是我们的共同家园,中国和东盟是永久的近邻,求和平、促发展是我们的共同心愿。中国的南海政策没有变化,保持着连续性和稳定性。美国出于地缘战略需要,四处煽风点火,不断派遣大型舰机在此耀武扬威,目的就是要挑起南海紧张动荡,破坏地区国家团结,搅黄各国和区域发展前景,地区国家需要高度警惕。中越要按照两党两国最高领导人达成的共识,坚持通过双边对话协商管控分歧,按照双方签署的一系列协议,寻求公平合理的解决方案。中越还应同其他东盟国家一道,遵守《南海各方行为宣言》,推进“南海行为准则”磋商,不给外部势力的干扰破坏以任何可乘之机。


范平明介绍了越方在海上问题的立场,表示愿同中方共同维护南海和平稳定,推动海上合作和共同发展,这符合越中双方的利益,也是域内外国家的普遍愿望。


范平明还代表越方向遭受洪涝灾害的中国人民表示慰问。王毅对此表示感谢。


来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22438

Esper Discusses Importance of Indo-Pacific Strategy

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作者:JIM GARAMONE  来源:美国国防部网站

The United States is following the tenets of the National Defense Strategy and prioritizing resources to the Indo-Pacific theater, Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper said during a virtual speech to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

During today’s presentation, Esper said the U.S. military is emphasizing the three pillars of the Indo-Pacific strategy: preparedness, strengthening partnerships and promoting a more networked region.
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He also said the Trump administration "looks forward to working with the United States Congress to establish a Pacific Deterrence Initiative that will prioritize our investments, maintain a credible deterrent and demonstrate an enduring whole of government commitment to the region."

China is seeking to overturn the current values-based international order that has provided peace for more than 70 years, Esper said, noting that the system is based on shared values and long-established economic ties with allies and partners in the region.

The devastating worldwide effects of the coronavirus pandemic reinforce the need for a rules-based international order rooted in transparency, openness, honesty and other shared values, the secretary said. "In this era of globalization, the antidote to a viral contagion is communication and collaboration, not disinformation and deception," he added.

While the United States and its allies and partners are working in this time of plague to support one another, the Chinese Communist Party continues to engage in systematic rule-breaking, coercion and other malign activities, Esper said. "Most concerning to me," he added, "the People’s Liberation Army continues its aggressive behavior in the East and South China Seas."

China’s excessive claims in the area affect all trading nations and neighbors such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea, Esper said.

"Most recently, Beijing advanced national security legislation that violates its commitment to the Hong Kong people to enjoy a high degree of autonomy, calling the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, a statement of policies rather than the treaty that it is," the secretary said.

China has also conducted large-scale exercises simulating the seizure of Taiwan. The secretary called this a destabilizing activity that significantly increases the risk of miscalculation.

"Make no mistake, the [Chinese Communist Party] has been engaged in this sort of behavior for many years," Esper said. "But today, its true intentions are on full display for all to see."

The United States and allies and partners in the region call on China to stop its destabilizing actions and abide by the international laws and norms that China arguably benefited most from since World War II.

"While we hope the CCP will change its ways, we must be prepared for the alternative," he said. "Together, we must uphold the free and open system that has secured peace and prosperity for millions and defend the principles that undergird it — namely, respect for sovereignty and independence for all nations, regardless of their size, peaceful resolution of disputes, mutual adherence to international laws and norms, and the promotion of free fair and reciprocal trade."

The military plays a role in this whole-of-government approach in the region. "We’re not only prioritizing the development and deployment of game-changing technologies such as hypersonic weapons, 5G and artificial intelligence, but we’re also investing in platforms critical to the Indo-Pacific and transforming the way we fight," the secretary said.

The Navy is building a more survivable, adaptable, sustainable and larger fleet. The Marine Corps is focused on becoming leaner, faster, more lethal and precise and more geographically distributed in the Pacific. The Army has prioritized long-range precision weapons to stay ahead of China’s growing anti-access, area-denial capabilities, the secretary said. "The Air Force continues its focus on enhanced stealth capabilities and the advancement of joint all domain command and control – a vital initiative that will link any sensor to any shooter in the battlefield in real time," he added.

To weave all these changes together, the U.S. military is developing a new joint warfighting concept – and ultimately, a doctrine – for the 21st century, Esper said.

America’s greatest advantage not only in the Indo-Pacific region, but also worldwide, is its network of allies and partners, the secretary said, promising that the United States will continue to cultivate partners moving forward.

"I want to highlight our increased defense cooperation with India, one of the all-important defense relationships of the 21st century," he said. "We conducted our first ever joint military exercise last November," Esper said. "As we speak today, the USS Nimitz is conducting combined exercises with the Indian navy in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating our shared commitment to stronger naval cooperation and supported by free and open Indo-Pacific."

Bilateral relationships are good, but multilateral cooperation is better, Esper said. "We are encouraging indo Pacific nations to expand their own intra-regional security relationships and networks of like-minded partners," he said.

Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia and others are working more closely together, the secretary said, calling it a trend that needs to continue.

Esper called China "a country with a storied history, a rich culture and a wonderful people" and said no Indo-Pacific nation wants to see conflict with China.

"We are committed to a constructive and results-oriented relationship with China and within our defense relationship to open lines of communication and risk reduction," he said. "I’ve personally spoken to my [People’s Republic of China] counterpart on multiple occasions. And before the year is out, I hope to visit the PRC for the first time as secretary in order to enhance cooperation on areas of common interest, establish the systems necessary for crisis communications, and reinforce our intentions to openly compete in the international system in which we all belong."

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/21

旧文章ID:22437

中国计划关闭美国驻成都领事馆

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作者:  来源:南华早报

  当地时间7月21日,美国政府要求中国驻休斯敦领事馆在72小时内关闭,此举令中美关系进一步紧张。
  对此,中国驻美国大使馆今日(23日)声明,美国单方面要求中方限时关闭驻休斯敦总领馆,是对中方发起的政治挑衅,严重违反国际法和国际关系基本准则以及中美领事条约有关规定,蓄意破坏中美关系。
  据南华早报援引知情人士透露,中国将关闭美国驻中国西南城市成都的领事馆,以报复美国周二强迫关闭中国驻休斯顿的外交机构。
  美国在中国内地设有5个领事馆,分别设在广州、上海、沈阳、成都和武汉,并在香港和澳门设有总领事馆。成都领事馆的关闭预计将加剧中美之间的紧张关系。
  广州领事馆是美国在全球最大的签证中心之一。美国在香港也有一个大型领事馆,历史上美国一直对香港和中国内地区别对待。
  在美国关闭其休斯顿领事馆以“保护美国人的知识产权和私人信息”之后,中国誓言要进行报复。最初有迹象表明,美国驻武汉领事馆将成为中国方面关闭的目标。
  周三,路透社引述消息指中方正考虑关闭美国驻武汉的总领事馆,作为报复行动。对于有关报道,中国外交部美国驻华大使馆都未有回应。
  环球时报主编胡锡进说,中国将采取相应措施,但关闭武汉领事馆的力度不够,因为在新冠肺炎疫情爆发期间,美国已经疏散了工作人员。胡锡进说,中国可能会“打破常规”进行报复。
  美国驻成都领事馆成立于1985年,它覆盖了中国的西南地区,包括四川、云南、贵州、西藏自治区和重庆,具有重要的战略意义。
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来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22436

高文博:如果拜登当选,中美关系会缓和吗

作者:高文博  来源:IPP评论

美国2020年总统大选即将于11月举行,最终获胜者基本锁定在美国共和党候选人特朗普和民主党候选人拜登之间。如果民主党候选人拜登当选,中美关系和国际格局可能会出现重大转变。

美国大选的结果现在仍难以预知。但拜登支持率相比疫情前确实在增高,当选的概率也在增大。根据皮尤研究中心6月30日出台的美国2020年总统大选民调,拜登在民调总评测试中领先特朗普10%[1]。

拜登有关多边主义和国际合作的表态可能为中美关系改善和新冠疫情防治等重大国际问题上的合作带来机遇,但在中美大国竞争的背景下,拜登重建美国同盟体系和加强其世界领导地位的努力,对中国来说可能也意味着风险和挑战。
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一、 拜登外交政策的核心思想和关键方向

美国《外交事务》杂志2020年3/4月份刊发了一篇拜登的文章,在标题中把美国外交政策目标图景的关键词设定为“再次领导”[2]。拜登声称,对比特朗普,他将更善于与国际组织和盟友互动、参与国际事务,以夺回美国的领导地位。拜登承诺他会更有力地维护自由主义和打击自由主义的对手,更有力地解决新冠病毒蔓延、数据隐私保护和气候变化等国际问题。

拜登的外交政策核心思想可以概括为“美国将再次领导”。拜登团队试图让选民相信,拜登的行事方式和特朗普不同,他将遵循一套更接近原建制派精英支持者偏好的外交政策原则来处理美国与世界的关系,包括中美关系[3]。这套原则试图让人相信,美国在世界范围内传播自由主义会加强其自身领导力,树立美国的全球领导地位。

美国领导人有道德义务按这套意识形态准则行动,尽管对自由国际主义原则的背离经常以遵守这套原则的名义发生,呈现出自由霸权主义的面貌,例如美国对于伊拉克和利比亚内政的干涉[4]。

相比排斥和攻击国际组织,自由霸权主义的意识形态要求美国成为国际组织中的领导者并且掌握设计国际组织议程的能力,并强调区分“我们”和“他者”[5]。“我们”要扩展自身的理念,甚至通过对外干涉实现美国对国际秩序的规划,进而成为“领导者”[6]。

而这种干涉行动,意味着美国一方面要更多地考虑美国盟友的需求和要求,而另一方面要进一步压缩被标定为“他者”的国家和国际关系行为体的活动空间。除非“他者”在部分议题上认同美国的“领导”和“价值观”,或者双方拥有共同的“敌人”和“威胁”,双方之间的合作和让步才能被合法和合理地设想。

拜登在外交议程设置上与特朗普差异很大。在其竞选网站中,拜登花费了非常多的篇幅来描述他对于新冠疫情和气候变化问题的看法和政策蓝图,承诺如果他当选,像气候变化和环境这些议题将获得更多关注。

这些议题有化石燃料造成的污染、拜登支持清洁能源科技商业与国际投资项目的保证等。拜登在竞选宣言和有关外交政策的文章中,批评特朗普“在维护基本的民主原则上”是“失败和不可靠的”;他要“修复特朗普总统造成的破坏”,采取“完全不同于今日的外交政策路线”[7]。

作为一位民主党候选人,拜登强调要和美国的“民主”盟友加强关系,并持续攻击特朗普和俄罗斯。拜登还将批评的重点对准特朗普的“退出”战略——特朗普退出世界卫生组织,推翻了之前签署的巴黎气候协定和伊朗核协议。

拜登承诺,如果当选,自己会努力使美国重新加入这些协议或国际组织,认为美国应该积极发挥其在国际组织和多边协议中的领导地位。

拜登声称他要更新民主和强化美国与其他“民主”国家的联盟;如他当选,他会在任期第一年迅速召开一个被美国认可的民主国家参与的全球峰会,重建美国领导力加强联盟合作以应对全球范围内的挑战。

特朗普治下的美国已经深陷拜登所说的“党争、腐败和极端不平等”之中,人们对美式民主的信心正在下降[8]。对此,拜登强调他将更重视自由主义和西式民主,会让它们在美国外交政策中扮演更重要的角色和发挥更大的作用。

二、中美关系改善的机遇

如拜登当选,中美关系仍会面临许多风险和挑战,但这不意味着中美没有合作的可能或者中美关系没有改善的机会。拜登并不是一个一贯仇华反华的总统候选人,中美也有合作以应对共同挑战的需要。

如果美国能认识到中国是潜在的合作伙伴,不把中国视作敌人,那中美关系就有改善的可能性。在贸易和环保谈判难以短时间内见到成果的情况下,有关新冠疫情防治的中美合作倡议可以为中美关系的改善开一个好头。

在贸易和环境问题上,中国如果想要和美国达成进一步合作,让美国认识到双方之间的伙伴关系为何举足轻重,可能要做好长期拉锯和艰难谈判的准备。

一种最好的情况是,如果全球经济能迅速恢复,而中美发现在开发新能源和新技术推广上双方有共同的产业和经济利益的话,中国的产业发展会与美国的经济复兴能形成一种互补关系。

在此情况下,中美有可能依照拜登过去所展露出来的外交习惯,达成类似中美第一阶段经贸协议和伊朗核协议式那样的互换协议,通过在环境、新能源产业和新技术生产方式推广上的协作,为中美关系注入新的动力。

但不论是签订这样一种协议还是通过新能源和新技术产业布局发掘世界经济的增长潜力,都不是一朝一夕可以达成的事情。

一个重要机遇是,中美可以尝试着把应对新冠疫情冲击的医疗和经济合作作为中美双边关系改善的突破口。谋求改善关系需先经济恢复,经济恢复需先防治新冠。

全球经济要恢复得足够好,中美才能拥有进一步进行经济合作以谋求改善双方政治关系的政治条件。在新冠疫情威胁人类生命安全和阻碍全球经济复苏的紧急势态下,中美之间审慎和互相尊重的协调和合作对于双方维护自身和世界的利益均属必要。

美国各界也有一股不弱的力量,支持中美在新冠疫情防治和全球经济复苏问题上进行合作。由前美国国务卿奥尔布赖特和知名政治和国际关系学者格雷厄姆·艾利森牵头,101名美国战略界知名人士,包括苏珊-赖斯、陆克文、罗伯特-沃克、洪博培、约瑟夫-奈和斯蒂芬-克拉斯纳,在一封有关中美医疗合作倡议的公开信上签名,其中不乏一些原来对中美合作前景持相对怀疑态度的美国政客和学者。

拜登对于防治新冠病毒传染病态度积极,并倡议成立国家间合作全球卫生应急委员会( Global Health Emergency Board )。这对于中美关系改善有不一般的意义。

特朗普意图让美国退出世界卫生组织,而拜登则认为美国应该留在世卫组织之中。他表示“在我总统(任期)的第一天,我将重新加入世界卫生组织”。拜登及其团队“呼吁立即成立一个全球卫生应急委员会…召集美国、我们的七国集团伙伴和其他国家的领导人,支持世界卫生组织,以确保在全球范围内采取协调一致的卫生和经济对策”。

在世界卫生组织的领导和指导下,这个意味着国际合作的卫生委员会如果能顺利成立并且广泛吸收作为参与者的相关国家和利益相关方,比如中国、俄罗斯和所有正在遭受病毒威胁的发展中国家,那无疑能为中美的理性合作和沟通理解提供一个新的机会,在中美之间建立一个珍贵的交流和互动平台。

参考文献:

[1] Pew Research Center, 2020. Public’s Mood Turns Grim; Trump Trails Biden on Most Personal Traits, Major Issues. Available at: https://www.people-press.org/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/ 15 July 2020.

[2] Biden, J., 2020. Why America Must Lead Again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 99.

[3] Porter, P., 2020. The False Promise of Liberal Order: Nostalgia, Delusion and the Rise of Trump. Cambridge: Polity.

[4] Mearsheimer, J. J., 2019. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. Shanghai: Yale University Press; Shanghai People’s Publishing House.

[5] Gress, D., 2010. From Plato to NATO: The Idea of the West and Its Opponents. New York: Free Press.

[6] Ikenberry, G. J., 2012. Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

[7] Biden, J., 2020. American Leadership. Available at: https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/ 15 July 2020.

[8] Biden, J., 2020. Why America Must Lead Again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 99.

  作者:高文博,华南理工大学公共政策研究院研究助理、政策分析师。

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/20

旧文章ID:22435

选情专家解读总统大选民调数字和选举人票

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作者:雷迪什  来源:美国之音

和过去几次美国总统大选一样,共和党总统特朗普和民主党的预定候选人拜登在2020年的大选胜负将取决于少数几州。

从远处看,美国总统选举看来可能更像是一场对几名候选人的全民公决。

但事实上,这是一场在五十州的每一州选举的总和,哪一州的人口越多,那一州在所谓的选举人团里的票也越多。

选举人票最少的七个州,每州各有三票,其中一票根据该州的国会众议员席位,两票根据该州的国会参议员席位而定。

哥伦比亚特区也获得最少的三票。

加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州、纽约州和佛罗里达州的选举人票数量最多。

每个州的普选赢家通常获得该州所有的选举人票,目标是:赢得足够的州,以取得两百七十张选举人票,这在五百三十八张选举人票中占简单多数。

2016年,民主党的希拉里·克林顿以大约三百万票赢得普选。

但共和党的特朗普却多赢了七十多张选举人票,在选举人团胜出,翻转了2012年投给民主党的六个州,以不到八万票的优势赢得了威斯康辛州、密西根州和宾夕法尼亚州,这将是2020年的政治战场的起点。

维吉尼亚大学政治中心选举分析师凯尔·康迪克说:“佛罗里达州、威斯康辛州、宾夕法尼亚州和密西根州近年来都是竞争非常激烈的州,这些州都两次投给奥巴马,北卡罗来纳州只在2008年投给奥巴马一次,而亚利桑那州从九十年代以来就没有将总统选票投给民主党。但你从亚利桑那州和北卡罗来纳州这样的州看到的是,在受过大学教育的郊区白人居民中,一种反对特朗普的现象正在促使这些州更具竞争性,大多数人因此觉得这六个州将决定大选胜负。”

凯尔·康迪克也是维吉尼亚大学政治中心的萨巴托水晶球通讯的总编辑,他对民意调查暗示民主党的拜登可能获得压倒性胜利,持怀疑态度。

康迪克说:“美国本世纪的总统选举,除了奥巴马2008年在全国赢得七个百分点可算是特例外,其它竞争都旗鼓相当。另外四次选举结果都很接近,这就是我对拜登在这些全国民调所显示的大幅领先,最终是否会在投票日的现实中反映出来,感到有些怀疑的原因。我的确认为拜登最终可能会取得决定性的胜利,但我难以想象两位数的差异,因为我们已经有相当久没看过这种事了。”

距离投票日还有几个月,特朗普总统还有充分时间提高他的民调数字。

康迪克说:“如果他夺回一些支持,或者减少拜登领先的优势,我们知道在2016年,他没有赢得全国普选,依然能赢得大选,因此,如果在全国民意调查中领先三到五个百分点,到了选举日,我认为在谁将获胜的问题上,可能会有一些真实的戏剧性出现。”

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22434

抖音禁令又近一步:参院一委员会通过法案 不准在政府设备上使用TikTok

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作者:  来源:美国之音

美国参议院国土安全与政府事务委员会周三(7月22日)无异议通过了一项共和党参议员乔什·霍利(Josh Hawley)提出的法案,禁止联邦雇员在政府提供的电子设备上使用中国字节跳动公司拥有的社交媒体应用程序TikTok,也就是抖音的海外版。

法案接下来将由参议院全院对这个法案进行表决。

随着中美关系的不断恶化,由于担心美国用户的个人信息可能落入北京的政府官员之手,美国对TikTok的国家安全担忧日益加剧。

TikTok表示,它与中国境内的抖音互不相联,TikTok从未向中国提供用户数据;如果北京提出要求的话,它也不会这样做。TikTok在一份声明中说,“没有什么比推广一种保护我们用户隐私的安全应用体验更为优先的考虑了。”

这个星期早些时候,作为一项价值7.410亿美元国防政策法案的一部分,众议院以336票对71票通过了由来自科罗拉多州的共和党众议员巴克(Ken Buck)提出的提案,禁止联邦雇员在政府发放的设备上下载该应用程序。

随着众议院全院的通过和参议院委员会通过相关内容,针对Tiktok的禁令可能很快会成为美国的法律。

TikTok在海外的最大市场印度在今年6月中旬与中国爆发了致命的边界冲突后以国家安全为由禁止使用这个应用程序以及其他58个中国应用程序。

在TikTok面临在美国受到禁止之际,据报TikTok的母公司字节跳动的一些美国投资人正在讨论通过购买这款陷入困境的应用程序来拯救它的计划。

包括硅谷巨头红杉资本(Sequoia Capital)在内的投资者希望清除中国对TikTok的任何控制,以期减轻包括美国议员在内的外界对该平台的审视。

有关的讨论还处在初期阶段,而字节跳动的创始人张一鸣据报对出售这款应用程序持开放态度。

总部位于北京的字节跳动最近的估值为750亿美元,TikTok是它在中国以外最受欢迎的产品。一些字节跳动投资者认为,TikTok的估值为400亿美元。

TikTok目前在美国青少年中间风靡。面对个人隐私、言论审查和国家安全方面的质疑,TikTok已采取一系列措施,试图拉开与中国政府的距离,包括请走北京总部派来的内容管理人员以及聘请美国高管。

TikTok周二表示,计划今后三年在美国创造1万个工作岗位,而它目前在美国有大约1400名员工。

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22433

关闭总领馆前所未有:前驻华大使洛德警告美中紧张可能导致军事冲突

作者:方冰  来源:美国之音

周三,美国国务院证实,特朗普政府下令在72小时内关闭中国驻休斯顿总领事馆。国务院官员表示采取这一行动的理由是“为了保护美国的知识产权和美国人的隐私信息”。有专家说,这是美国在忍无可忍的情况下采取的必要行动;但批评者指出,这更像是特朗普总统采取的一项鲁莽行动。

同日,国务卿蓬佩奥在丹麦表示,这是特朗普总统下令采取的行动。 “特朗普总统说,够了,我们不允许这种情况继续发生”,蓬佩奥表示,美国对中国共产党的行为提出了明确期望,“如果他们不这样做,我们将采取行动,为了保护美国人民,保护我们的国家安全,保护我们的经济和工作机会。 这就是你看到的特朗普总统采取的行动,并将继续参与其中。”

洛德:美中紧张升级可能导致军事冲突

美国前驻华大使温斯顿·洛德对美国之音说,他对此感到惊讶。“我们仍然需要了解更多有关为什么这么做的详细信息。关于知识产权和主权等合法问题的解释是含糊不清的。但是,为什么这跟双边关系41年来任何一方首次关闭领事馆有关?这超乎我的想象。这是对正确识别问题所采取的典型的过激做法。但是除了这样的回应外,我还不明白他们为什么特别选择休斯顿。最后,中国肯定会关闭我们的一个领事馆,也许是在武汉进行报复。”

洛德大使认为,双方外交危机的升级有可能导致热战,但眼下还不会,“我认为最坏后果不会发生。但如果不断升高紧张局势,将会导致一场公开冲突,甚至是军事冲突,例如在南中国海或在台湾海峡,由于错误计算或事故而引起的冲突。但是,除此之外,我们在冒脱钩的风险,这对两个社会都是有害的。

洛德大使批评这一最新发展是特朗普总统连任策略的一部分。他说:“特朗普的战略还包括对中国采取强硬态度,并假装拜登对中国持软弱态度,把我们所有的问题归咎于中国。”但他也肯定特朗普政府对北京在一些问题上的强硬立场,“我认为,与维吾尔族和香港有关的制裁完全正确。”

他认为,更需要被谴责的是中国。“我再次将美中关系恶化的大部分责任归咎于中国以及习近平在国内的压制、对包括美国在内的其它国家的干涉,以及他对香港和新疆的政策。”

“中国在国内外都表现出侵略性,绝对需要某种反击和坚定性。但是,应该有选择、有目的而不是全面地进行。”

孔杰荣:美国人民有权得到更好解释

“美国人民有权得到比美国政府到目前为止给出的更好解释”,纽约大学法学院资深法学教授孔杰荣告诉美国之音。这位90岁高龄的中国法律专家说,“我只看到了一个很简短的句子,没有任何解释,没有证据”,“我们需要有一个确实的解释。 这是非常严重的行动。 这比我们说必须限制中国在美国的记者人数要严重得多。”

孔杰荣说,中国也应该做出解释。“我认为中华人民共和国也应该作出解释。毫无疑问,他们比美国人民知道更多到底在发生什么事情。这是一个严重的行动。一定是发生了某些事情。 但是我们不知道,我们有权知道发生了什么来证明这一强有力的行动是正确的。”

章家敦:这是激烈但必要的举动

“这是美国做的非常好的事情。” 一向对华强硬的评论家、《中国即将走向崩溃》一书作者章家敦说。

“我们(美国)已经尝试了各种其他方法来使中国人停止窃取美国的知识产权,但是都没有任何效果。例如,我们在2015年12月习近平与奥巴马总统达成了协议,没起作用。用301条款的关税惩罚作为盗窃知识产权的补救措施,这种方法也没起作用。因此,关闭领事馆是一项激烈的但我认为是必要的步骤。”

章家敦认为,美国还会有进一步行动。“这可能不是我们必须采取的唯一步骤,另外还有四个领事馆,还有非常庞大的使馆工作人员。 有一位中国大使,他的行为与他的外交身份不符。 他正试图非法招募科学家。因此,我认为还有很多其他事情我们应该考虑应该做。”

黎安友:关闭领事馆是美国政府鹰派对中国的反击

但是,孔杰荣教授认为,如果美国政府给不出关闭中国驻休斯顿领事馆的确实理由,那么,“一般原因似乎是,我们正试图表明——特别是在即将举行的大选对特朗普总统的机会形成挑战的情况下——我们拥有非常强大的中国政策,因为美国人民对中国感到越来越不满。 这可能是政治原因。 但是我们只能推测。”

哥伦比亚大学政治学教授、著名中国问题学者黎安友在回答美国之音要求置评的电子邮件中分析认为,关闭休斯顿中国领馆的行动是特朗普总统打中国牌的竞选连任策略与其政府内鹰派对华冷战战略思维契合的结果。

“我认为特朗普并不十分在意战略,但蓬佩奥(国务卿)和博明(副国家安全顾问)等人的战略思想与特朗普对中国表达对抗的策略思考重叠。”

“此举的目的更多是为了表明美国对中国的强硬立场,这是美国政府在过去一年左右所表现出的越来越多敌对政策的一部分,彭斯(副总统)、蓬佩奥(国务卿)、奥布莱恩(国家安全顾问)、巴尔(司法部长)、克里斯·雷(联调局局长Chris Wray),以及最近白宫就美国对华战略发表的文件,都表达了一种日益敌对的政策,学者(而非政府)称之为新冷战。”

“这项敌对政策具有战略目的:像蓬佩奥、奥布莱恩和博明这样的美国政策的关键制定者,似乎确实将中国视为对西方价值观的威胁,他们希望反击。”

全面对抗中谁更需要谁?

外交是对等的,外界已经在谈论中国会采取相应报复行动。对此,章家敦说:“人们谈论的是关闭武汉(美国领事馆),他们可能会关闭更多领事馆,但我们别无选择。 我们必须阻止中国从事危险、好战和有害的行为。”

章家敦认为,这是中国导致的后果,“中国在推动这一进程。如果关闭一个不起作用,我们必须关闭更多的领事馆,或将不得不驱逐中国外交官,这是美国可能要做的各种事情。但是这些都不是我们想做的,而是迫于中国(的行为)我们没有选择的余地。”

这样的外交对抗升级如发展下去将导致双边关系的全面危机,但章家敦说,中国比美国更需要对方。

“如果关系被完全切断,中国受到的伤害更大。正如我说的那样,我们不想这样做,但是我们别无选择,因为较小的措施都没有用。”章家敦表示。

但孔杰荣教授认为,如果中国采取关闭美国驻华领事馆的报复行动,最终美国付出的代价高于中国。“这将是非常不幸的行动。这是关闭休斯顿中国领事馆要付出的高昂代价。对我们来说,这是非常昂贵的代价。”

原因很简单,两个社会完全不同,“我们是一个开放社会,中国可以承受失去一个驻美领事馆。他们有很多方法可以得到德克萨斯州以及其他州或地区的情况。但是我们没有那么容易。因为中国是一个封闭社会。它非常秘密。我们需要在中国拥有尽可能多的外交官和领事馆。” 他认为,“这似乎是(特朗普政府)的一个鲁莽举动。”

黎安友教授也认为,美中外交对抗全面升级对美国伤害会更大。“关闭领事馆就关闭了两个政府和两个社会之间的沟通渠道,对我而言,这是一种危险的消极趋势。中国不会从地球表面消失,我们需要应对它。也许我们特别需要在社会对社会的层面上处理这一问题,我感到这两个社会之间的关系由于教育和商业上的联系而保持着积极和活跃的关系。维护社会之间的纽带关系,符合美国利益更甚于符合中国政权的利益。”

中国驻休斯顿总领馆的领事服务涵盖阿拉巴马、阿肯色、佛罗里达、乔治亚、路易斯安那、密西根、奥克拉荷马、德克萨斯和波多黎各。

黎安友认为,不清楚为什么美国政府选择休斯顿中国领馆,也不清楚该领馆是否从事违反美国法律的间谍行动,但他表示领事馆通常具有一些间谍功能,“其中一些是无可非议的,例如总结当地对中国的意见,而某些功能会违反东道国法律。我刚才所描述的是一般情况,对中国驻美领事馆的也同样适用于在中国的美国领事馆。”

美国三一学院荣退经济系教授文贯中表示,美中两国间的博弈是一个互动的过程,“这取决于我出了牌之后你出什么牌。你的牌比我还要硬,那我没办法,我只能下一轮出更硬的牌。”

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22432

蓬佩奥说休斯顿领馆因中共盗窃知识产权被关 特朗普不排除关闭更多使领馆

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作者:布雷德迈尔,理查德·格林  来源:美国之音

华盛顿 — 美国国务卿蓬佩奥星期三(7月22日)说,美国下令关闭中国驻休斯顿的领事馆是因为持续存在的北京盗窃美国知识产权的问题。美国总统特朗普同天在被记者问到此事时说,他不排除关闭更多使领馆的可能性。

身为美国首席外交官的蓬佩奥在丹麦举行的一次记者会上说:“我们正在就中国共产党如何表现制定出明确的预期要求。”

他说:“当他们没有做到时,我们将采取行动,保护美国人民,保护我们的安全,我们的国家安全,并保护我们的经济和就业。”

美国下令中国在星期五下午之前关闭驻休斯顿的领馆设施。中国驻休斯顿领馆有大约60名雇员。美国的这道命令是这两个世界最大经济体之间的紧张关系的重大升级。

蓬佩奥说,中国在休斯顿的行动造成了广泛的影响。

他说:“被偷走的不仅仅是美国的知识产权,还有欧洲的知识产权,损失了几十万份工作,这些都是欧洲和美国各地勤劳人民的好工作,被中国共产党偷走了。”

他说,特朗普总统“已经表示‘够了’。我们不会允许这种情况继续发生下去。”

一位关键的共和党参议员马可·鲁比奥说,中国在休斯顿的领事馆“不是外交设施。它是共产党在美国的巨大间谍和影响行动网络的中心枢纽。”

鲁比奥宣称:“这在之前就是必须要做的。”

星期三,在白宫的记者会上,特朗普总统被问到他有没有可能关闭更多的中国驻美使领馆。

特朗普回答说:“就关闭更多使馆而言,这永远是有可能的。你们看看正在发生的事情。我们以为在确实被我们关闭的那处地方着了火,大家都说着火了。有火,我猜想他们是在烧档案或烧文件,我很好奇这是怎么回事。”

中国在美国还有其它六处外交设施:驻华盛顿的大使馆、在纽约的驻联合国办事处和位于纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山和芝加哥的领事馆。

星期二,两名中国公民被起诉在为中国国家安全部门效力期间使用黑客手段攻击了世界各地数以百计的实体,包括开发新冠病毒疫苗和治疗方案的美国生物科技公司。

中国强烈抗议美国要求关闭其驻休斯顿领事馆的命令,并威胁要采取报复措施。

在关闭领事馆的命令下达后几个小时,休斯顿当地电视台KPRC播放了领事馆院内起烟、消防车停在外面街道的画面。休斯顿警方说,领事馆人员为被驱离做准备,使用开放容器焚烧文件,但地方当局没有进入这处外交设施。

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22431

兔主席:傅高义引用我在《华盛顿邮报》发声

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作者:兔主席  来源:tuzhuxi

按:中美关系恶化,中国专家傅高义教授实在看不下去了。继《环球时报》采访后(傅高义:很不幸,中美有发生军事冲突的可能),又在《华盛顿邮报》上撰文,呼吁美国关注中美关系,避免将美国在中国的同情者推到对立面。确实,美国政府这两年来令人发指的行为正在快速消灭美国在中国用多年积累的“人品”和“软力量”,不断为中国的反美主义煽风点火。这篇文章傅高义教授是从美国人易接受的角度写的。文章开篇引用了兔主席的文章。(背后文章是《美国对中国的傲慢与偏见》)【延伸阅读:傅高义:中美关系与青年的角色(中英文对照)】
""

《美国的政策正在将我们的中国朋友们推向反美民族主义》

兔主席速译:

“兔主席”是一个中国知名博客的作者,拥有150万读者。有几位著名的中国博客学者——他们还在学生的时期我就认识他们——他就是其中一位。在他最近的一篇文章中,兔主席引用了著名的军事战略家孙子——“知己知彼,百战不殆”——用来解释为什么美国人在输掉与中国的冲突——因为我们“不了解我们的敌人”。

兔主席指出,美国输掉了越战,因为许多美国人错误地认为北越是旧式的共产主义者。事实上,在他们夺取政权并开始治理国家的时候,他们成为了民族主义者。

美国的官员正在攻击中国共产党——据说正在考虑对共产党员进行旅行限制,但没有考虑到共产党的复杂性与多样性。这不再是一个代表斯大林或毛时期共产主义目标的政党。在1978年邓小平时代以来,共产党已经转变成为一个代表全国的政党:它包括了曾经支持同情美国的人,包括企业家,科学家和知识分子。但当美国将共产党作为一个整体进行攻击的时候,党的成员——包括那些本来希望看到更多民主程序的人——都团结起来支持自己的党,以及自己的民族。

在我成为哈佛大学东亚研究教授的半个多世纪以来,我愉快地给许多中国学生授课。他们中有些人留在了美国,有些人回到了中国。我还认识许多曾经在哈佛学习的中国学生与学者(尽管他们不是我的学生)。我在过去四十年里每年至少访问中国一次,经常与那些回到中国的学生与学者会面。许多人在美国的时候都是非常出色的学生。他们对新的想法非常开放,也十分享受智识的自由。在过去几年,伴随美中关系更加分化,回国者发现他们面临着新的对自由的限制。他们找到许多有创造性的方法来拓展自己的自由,同时成功地避免麻烦。他们希望对中国忠诚,同时与美国维持友谊。但当他们看到美国在不实地攻击中国之时——例如称新冠病毒是武汉实验室研发的——这很大的加强了他们的爱国主义,使得他们更加支持中国政府,反对华盛顿。

许多回国者推动了重要的政策,例如建立规则,要求对美国企业的知识产权付费,或者采用联合国等机构推行的规则。前总理朱镕基努力推动中国加入WTO,使得中国必须进行内部的转变以适应国际组织的规则。中国为亚投行(AIIB)挑选的负责人在世界银行和亚洲发展银行都工作过,希望按照国际标准打造AIIB。他邀请负责草拟AIIB的是一位毕业于哈佛法学院的美国女律师。然而,美国政府官员非但拒绝加入AIIB,而且还呼吁我们的盟国共同抵制。许多中国人认定,美国并不关心原则和价值,只在意维持自己的国际权力。

由福尔布莱特项目资助前往中国的美国人在建立学术联系及重要关系方面做了巨大的工作。现在,美国政府说要终止这个项目。参与这个项目的美国人,以及积极响应配合的中国人民现在都觉得被美国抛弃。

设想一下,如果我们是那些成千上万从美国回到中国、努力工作以推动中国追随国际规则的人们,突然听说美国政要宣称与中国的接触政策失败了,会作何感受?我可以告诉你们,许多努力响应美国的诉求,为自己推动中国接受国际标准的努力感到骄傲的人们(通常还要遭遇许多来自国内的反对声音),现在会觉得他们勇敢的努力及成功在美国政要眼中完全一钱不值。许多人就是中国共产党员。美国人对这些推动国际规则的中国人的努力一无所知,只是在把他们推向反美民族主义。

近年来,美国针对中国的政策与政治措辞都是由对中国发展知之甚少的官员所主导的。把中国人推到美国的对立面是不符合美国的利益的。如果我们希望中国人能够与我们一起努力,推动我们的共同利益,则我们需要从根本上重新审视我们的政策。这也要求高级官员去支持我们在中国的朋友,更多地了解中国国内的态势。

(原文)

U.S. policies are pushing our friends in China toward anti-American nationalism

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/22/us-policies-are-pushing-our-friends-china-toward-anti-american-nationalism/

傅高义Ezra F. Vogel

July 23, 2020 at 12:57 a.m. GMT+8

(Ezra F. Vogel是哈佛大学亨利·福特二世社会学荣休教授)

登载于《华盛顿邮报》

The “Rabbit Chairman” is the author of a popular Chinese blog with 1.5 million readers. He is one of several influential Chinese bloggers I knew when they were students. In one of his recent posts, the Chairman quoted Sun Tzu, the famous war strategist — “If you know yourself and know your enemy, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles” — to explain how Americans are losing their conflict against China because we don’t “know the enemy.”

The Rabbit Chairman argues that the United States lost the war in Vietnam because many Americans mistakenly thought the North Vietnamese were old-fashioned communists. In fact, after they took power and were responsible for governing the country, they became nationalists.

U.S. officials are now attacking the Chinese Communist Party — and reportedly weighing a sweeping travel ban against members — without realizing its complexity and diversity. It is no longer the party that exemplifies the communist goals of Stalin or Mao. After Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978, the party was transformed into an organization to represent the nation. The Party includes people who have been pro-American, including business people, scientists and intellectuals. But when Americans attack the Communist Party as a whole, members — particularly those who would like to see more democratic procedures — rally to support the Party and, by extension, the nation.

In the half century since I became a professor of East Asian studies at Harvard, I have had the pleasure of teaching many Chinese students, some of whom stayed in the United States and others who returned to China. I have also come to know many Chinese students and faculty who studied at Harvard but were not my students. I have visited China at least once a year over the past four decades and have often met those students and scholars who returned home to China.

Many were excellent students in the United States. They were open to new ideas and enjoyed the intellectual freedom. In the past several years, as U.S.-China relations have become more polarized, returnees have faced new constraints on their freedom in China. Many find creative ways to stretch their freedom while staying out of trouble. They want to be loyal to China while remaining friends of the United States. But when they read of Americans attacking China with accusations that are not true — such as saying that the coronavirus was purposely engineered in a Wuhan laboratory — this strengthens their patriotism and willingness to support the Chinese government against Washington.

Many returnees have advanced important policies, such as establishing rules that required payments to American firms for intellectual property or standards applied by institutions such as the United Nations. Former premier Zhu Rongji fought to gain membership in the World Trade Organization so that China would be forced to make internal changes that meshed with those of international organizations. China chose as the head of its new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) someone who had served in both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and who wanted to make the AIIB one that followed world standards. The lawyer he hired to write the rules for the AIIB was an American woman, a graduate of Harvard and Harvard Law School. However, not only did American government officials refuse to join the AIIB, but they also urged our allies to do the same. Many Chinese concluded that the United States was not concerned with principles but only with retaining international power.

Our Americans sent to China by the Fulbright program have done a marvelous job of establishing academic relationships and making important connections. Now the United States has said that it would be suspended. Americans who took part in the program and Chinese friends who responded positively now feel abandoned by the country that once sought their friendship.

How would we feel if we were in the position of those tens of thousands of Chinese who had returned home and worked hard to prepare China for better adherence to international rules and who then read that prominent Americans claim that engagement had failed? I can tell you that many who had fought to respond to American requests and felt proud of their successes in adopting international standards — often against domestic resistance — feel as if their valiant efforts and successes are seen by prominent Americans as worthless. Many are members of the Communist Party. Americans ignorant of their sacrifices for international rules are pushing them toward anti-American nationalism.

In recent years, U.S. policy and political rhetoric toward China have been dominated by officials with limited knowledge of developments in that country. It is not in the United States’ interest to turn the Chinese into enemies. If we want to encourage them to work with us for our common interests, we need some fundamental rethinking of our policies. This in turn requires that high officials be willing to support our friends in China and learn more about its internal dynamics.

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22422

Ezra Vogel: U.S. policies are pushing our friends in China toward anti-American nationalism

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作者:Ezra Voge  来源:Washington Post

Ezra F. Vogel is the Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University.


The “Rabbit Chairman” is the author of a popular Chinese blog with 1.5 million readers. He is one of several influential Chinese bloggers I knew when they were students. In one of his recent posts, the Chairman quoted Sun Tzu, the famous war strategist — “If you know yourself and know your enemy, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles” — to explain how Americans are losing their conflict against China because we don’t “know the enemy.”

The Rabbit Chairman argues that the United States lost the war in Vietnam because many Americans mistakenly thought the North Vietnamese were old-fashioned communists. In fact, after they took power and were responsible for governing the country, they became nationalists.

U.S. officials are now attacking the Chinese Communist Party — and reportedly weighing a sweeping travel ban against members — without realizing its complexity and diversity. It is no longer the party that exemplifies the communist goals of Stalin or Mao. After Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978, the party was transformed into an organization to represent the nation. The Party includes people who have been pro-American, including business people, scientists and intellectuals. But when Americans attack the Communist Party as a whole, members — particularly those who would like to see more democratic procedures — rally to support the Party and, by extension, the nation.

In the half century since I became a professor of East Asian studies at Harvard, I have had the pleasure of teaching many Chinese students, some of whom stayed in the United States and others who returned to China. I have also come to know many Chinese students and faculty who studied at Harvard but were not my students. I have visited China at least once a year over the past four decades and have often met those students and scholars who returned home to China.

Many were excellent students in the United States. They were open to new ideas and enjoyed the intellectual freedom. In the past several years, as U.S.-China relations have become more polarized, returnees have faced new constraints on their freedom in China. Many find creative ways to stretch their freedom while staying out of trouble. They want to be loyal to China while remaining friends of the United States. But when they read of Americans attacking China with accusations that are not true — such as saying that the coronavirus was purposely engineered in a Wuhan laboratory — this strengthens their patriotism and willingness to support the Chinese government against Washington.

Many returnees have advanced important policies, such as establishing rules that required payments to American firms for intellectual property or standards applied by institutions such as the United Nations. Former premier Zhu Rongji fought to gain membership in the World Trade Organization so that China would be forced to make internal changes that meshed with those of international organizations. China chose as the head of its new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) someone who had served in both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and who wanted to make the AIIB one that followed world standards. The lawyer he hired to write the rules for the AIIB was an American woman, a graduate of Harvard and Harvard Law School. However, not only did American government officials refuse to join the AIIB, but they also urged our allies to do the same. Many Chinese concluded that the United States was not concerned with principles but only with retaining international power.

Our Americans sent to China by the Fulbright program have done a marvelous job of establishing academic relationships and making important connections. Now the United States has said that it would be suspended. Americans who took part in the program and Chinese friends who responded positively now feel abandoned by the country that once sought their friendship.


How would we feel if we were in the position of those tens of thousands of Chinese who had returned home and worked hard to prepare China for better adherence to international rules and who then read that prominent Americans claim that engagement had failed? I can tell you that many who had fought to respond to American requests and felt proud of their successes in adopting international standards — often against domestic resistance — feel as if their valiant efforts and successes are seen by prominent Americans as worthless. Many are members of the Communist Party. Americans ignorant of their sacrifices for international rules are pushing them toward anti-American nationalism.

In recent years, U.S. policy and political rhetoric toward China have been dominated by officials with limited knowledge of developments in that country. It is not in the United States’ interest to turn the Chinese into enemies. If we want to encourage them to work with us for our common interests, we need some fundamental rethinking of our policies. This in turn requires that high officials be willing to support our friends in China and learn more about its internal dynamics.

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22421

Prosecutors say S.F. consulate is harboring Chinese military researcher wanted by FBI

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作者:Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian  来源:Axios

A researcher who lied about her affiliation with a Chinese military university entered the Chinese consulate in San Francisco after being interviewed by the FBI on June 20 about alleged visa fraud and has remained there, according to an FBI assessment in court filings dated July 20.

Why it matters: Using a diplomatic facility to shelter someone charged with a federal crime could cause serious tension between the U.S. and China, especially as the U.S. is seeking to crack down on Chinese espionage and research theft.

"It is highly unusual for a Chinese diplomatic post to associate so closely with a suspect in an intellectual property theft-related case," said Minyao Wang, a New York-based lawyer who has worked on IP theft cases related to China.

"Sheltering a defendant in a criminal case by using the diplomatic immunity of a consular building, if true, is really extraordinary."

Context: On July 21, the U.S. told China that it must close its Houston consulate within 72 hours.

State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said the move was intended to "protect American intellectual property and American’s private information."

Details: According to documents filed on July 20 in the San Francisco division of the U.S. district court for the Northern District of California, Tang Juan came to the U.S. on a J-1 visa and was a researcher at the University of California, Davis.

On her visa application, Tang stated that she did not have any affiliation with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Chinese military.

But an investigation revealed that she worked at the Air Force Military Medical University (FMMU), a PLA-affiliated university in China, and she is considered to be active military personnel.

After obtaining a warrant, the FBI searched her home and found evidence of her affiliation with the PLA.

On June 26, Tang was charged with visa fraud.

Tang appears to have taken refuge inside the San Francisco consulate.

Federal prosecutors wrote that "at some point following the search and interview of Tang on June 20, 2020, Tang went to the Chinese Consulate in San Francisco, where the FBI assesses she has remained," according to court filings.

"As the Tang case demonstrates, the Chinese consulate in San Francisco provides a potential safe harbor for a PLA official intent on avoiding prosecution in the United States," prosecutors stated.

What they’re saying: "We made the Chinese government aware that she is a charged individual, so it unquestionable that they know the defendant is a fugitive from Justice," a Department of Justice official told Axios.

The Chinese embassy in Washington, DC and the Chinese consulate in San Francisco did not respond to a request for comment.

The State Department declined to comment.

The big picture: Federal prosecutors believe this isn’t an isolated case.

Tang’s case is listed among several similar recent ones that appear "to be part of a program conducted by the PLA — and specifically, FMMU or associated institutions—to send military scientists to the United States on false pretenses with false covers or false statements about their true employment," the court filing states.

At least one among this group of cases involved a military scientist who had allegedly been directed by military superiors to steal information from a U.S. institution.

In other cases, the Chinese government directed military scientists to destroy evidence, and had helped them leave the U.S, according to court filings.

Related: The White House issued an executive order on May 29 barring entry to certain Chinese students and researchers from PLA-linked universities, stating that they are at "high risk of being exploited or co-opted by the PRC authorities" to serve as "non-traditional collectors of intellectual property."

The bottom line: If the FBI’s assessment is correct, the San Francisco consulate’s decision to shelter a fugitive affiliated with the Chinese military is highly provocative behavior that goes against basic diplomatic conventions.

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22420

China Consulate Fight Shows Trump’s Hardliners Are in Charge

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作者:Nick Wadhams and Peter Martin  来源:Bloomberg

Donald Trump spent the first three years of his presidency balancing the demands of hardliners who wanted a crackdown on China against his own desire to pursue a trade deal and cultivate a stronger relationship with Xi Jinping.

The unexpected order Wednesday to close the Chinese consulate in Houston made one thing clear: the hawks are now in charge.

Eager to blame China for the Covid-19 pandemic and fed up with what U.S. officials call a history of espionage and intellectual-property theft, Trump has allowed a small group of advisers led by Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to push U.S. policy toward its most antagonistic in decades. The result is a series of sanctions, restrictions and condemnations that culminated in the Houston decision.

“Despite the overall message that the administration was tough on China we saw very much the opposite until we had a pandemic to contend with,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “They actually pursued a very narrow China policy up until spring.”

The battle has now been opened on a range of fronts: China’s tightening grip over Hong Kong, its treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, its infiltration of technology and the theft of intellectual property. In nearly every policy realm, the U.S. is pushing back harder. It’s banning Chinese academics and expelling Chinese journalists and warning that the U.S. needs to cut its dependence on Chinese goods.

U.S. Move on Houston Consulate Risks American Footprint in China

Pompeo’s team, along with Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger, are the key architects of the change. They’re finding a more willing audience in the White House for their argument that the U.S. needs to strike back after what they see as decades spent ignoring China’s behavior, criticizing both Republican and Democratic administrations for being naive.

According to one person familiar with internal discussions, Pompeo and his advisers have come to conclude that a capitalist, democratic U.S. and a Communist, unelected leadership in China are fundamentally at odds and cannot coexist.

“America is engaging in a response to Chinese Communist Party and aggression in a way that America has not done for the past 20 years,” Pompeo said on June 19. “We responded to their military, use of military force, by moving back. We responded to their use of diplomatic coercion via retreating. Donald Trump is not going to permit that, and we made that clear.”

U.S. Officials Await Retaliation for Houston Consulate Closure

A total of roughly 700 diplomats are normally assigned to the U.S. embassy and five consulates in China

With the Oval Office offering little restraint, Pompeo’s team has orchestrated an unprecedented roll-out of attacks on Beijing, calling on every senior official in the executive branch to join the fray. That has included speeches by National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, FBI director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Bill Barr, who lambasted Hollywood and companies such as Apple Inc. for succumbing to China’s will. Pompeo has even given more latitude to his spokeswoman, Morgan Ortagus, to call out China in unusually harsh terms, as she did last year in referring to the country’s “thuggish regime.”

The Chinese Embassy in Washington urged the U.S. to show restraint Wednesday, comparing the administration to a car going the wrong way down the road. “It’s time to step on the brakes and return to the right direction!” the embassy said in a tweet.

Pompeo has taken the campaign on the road, with trips to the U.K. and Denmark this week aimed at coalescing a global coalition to oppose China. On Thursday, he’ll visit the presidential library of Richard Nixon — who was responsible for the re-opening with China in 1972 — for a speech that’s expected to cast the U.S.-China fight as the ultimate clash of civilizations.

Fueling the new hawkishness is a group of advisers around Pompeo who have laid out a China approach in far more aggressive and confrontational terms. They include Assistant Secretary David Stilwell and two China-born American scholars pulled from the world of academia: Miles Yu and Mung Chiang.

Yu is a history professor who has focused on China’s military at the U.S. Naval Academy and has long flagged concerns about Beijing’s efforts to expand its capabilities and influence. Chiang is on leave from his post as the dean of the college of engineering at Purdue University.

Both men bring skepticism about previous efforts to engage China in order to get it to embrace Western values. They’re joined by a key outside adviser, Michael Pillsbury, who wrote a 2015 book titled “The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.”

The group isn’t winning all its arguments: a proposal that emerged at the State Department to undermine Hong Kong’s dollar peg got little traction. A recommendation that the U.S. pursue a free trade agreement with Taiwan — a move which would infuriate Beijing — has gone nowhere. Trump also hasn’t given his sign-off to another idea to bar entry to the U.S. to members of China’s Communist Party.

What Hong Kong Losing Its U.S. ‘Special Status’ Means: QuickTake

Yet the days of Trump heaping praise on Xi, even as Covid-19 began to spread, are gone, replaced by an atmosphere of unrelenting negativity. According to numerous people familiar with the conversations, even moderate voices are ignored in administration meetings. Vice President Mike Pence vetoed the idea of serving as a back channel to China, wary of getting in the middle of an unstable and bifurcated policy, according to a person familiar with the proposal.

The newly hawkish tone, while shared in Congress, has sparked concern from Democrats and Republicans outside the government who argue that it’s largely a fiction given the revelations of John Bolton’s book, “The Room Where it Happened.” Bolton, who left the White House last year, argues that Trump only saw China through the lens of his own electoral chances, never cared about human rights in China and didn’t mind if Xi locked up Uighurs.

“This is partly electioneering,” Max Baucus, a former U.S. ambassador to China and ex-Democratic senator from Montana, told Bloomberg Television. “Clearly China creates a lot of problems for the United States, but this is the wrong way to handle it. If Pompeo thinks he is going to change Chinese behavior, he is gravely mistaken. Statements like his and others very much weaken the hands of reformers in China and very much strengthen the hands of hardline hawks in China.”

Several former diplomats as well as more centrist Republicans and Democrats argue that the U.S. needs to cooperate with China to get things done on all sorts of matters, including counter-terrorism, climate change and nuclear non-proliferation. They also worry the new tougher strategy will just cause Chinese officials to dig in their heels even further.

‘Toward Hostility’

“The worry that I have is that only Xi Jinping could bring the Republicans and Democrats together in the American congress,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the Council on Foreign Relations this week. “My worry is we’re going to move too far toward hostility.”

Many in Beijing see the tougher U.S. moves as a last-ditch, and hopeless, attempt to halt the progress of a country that has been catching up to the U.S., in terms of overall economic might.

“If anyone in Washington believes that applying more pressure to China will force China to succumb, they are indulging in fantasy,” said Gao Zhikai, a former Chinese diplomat and translator for Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. “Washington needs to come to terms with a China which will eventually outgrow the size of the United States in about 10 to 15 years.”

— With assistance by Brendan Scott, and Daniel Ten Kate

来源时间:2020/7/23   发布时间:2020/7/23

旧文章ID:22419