作者：  来源：参考消息网

　　香港《南华早报》网站8月17日发表香港中文大学经济学教授刘遵义的文章《美中贸易战的背后是两国力量竞争与贸易保护主义浪潮高涨》称，中美贸易战其实跟贸易无关，而是两大动态事件对中美关系同时发作的结果。第一个事件与中美角逐世界经济和技术统治地位有关。第二个与民粹主义、孤立主义和保护主义在全球特别是在美国抬头有关。
　　文章称，中美竞争早已有之，虽然没有形于外。它不肇始于唐纳德·特朗普总统，亦不会因特朗普离任而消失。之所以现在尖锐起来，是因为2000年时中国的国内生产总值仅为美国的10%，到了2017年却急剧增长到美国的三分之二，照这种趋势下去，恐怕到本世纪30年代中国就会追上美国。
　　文章认为，竞争未必不好。举例来说，为了造出世界最快的超级计算机，中美展开竞争，结果两国都造出了更好、更快的计算机。
　　今年，美国国际商用机器公司的“顶点”计算机击败中国的“神威·太湖之光”，成为全球超级计算机500强的冠军，“神威·太湖之光”完全使用中国国产芯片，2016年和2017年两年问鼎该榜。因为贸易战，美国可能中断供应先进的半导体，这多半会更加坚定中国自给自足的决心。
　　文章称，民粹主义、孤立主义和保护主义在美国及世界各地抬头，也严重影响了国际贸易与投资。这些情绪虽然不是特朗普掀起，但他非常有效地利用这些情绪并把中国塑造为反面角色却是确有其事。
　　文章认为，问题的根本原因在于全球化收益分配不均。全球化让许多国家受益，包括中国与美国，但是无论在中国还是在美国，全球化都没有实现普惠——于是出现了失败者。
　　文章称，特朗普同样信奉零和原则，即一个国家得到好处，另一个国家必然蒙受损失，因此他认为，充分利用美国的体量和实力，与各国一对一磋商双边贸易协议可以改善美国的处境。
　　文章称，特朗普的一个不满是美国没有从中美经济关系中得到足够的好处。中国通过大规模扩张外贸岗位，使6亿人口摆脱贫困。美国消费者也享受了20年的物美价廉。
　　最后会怎样呢？可能除了美国之外，中国与世界所有国家会继续维护当前在世界贸易组织下的这套多边贸易制度。归根结底，所有国家都得到好处并将继续从中受益。然而，中美关系今后必须小心驾驭。

来源时间：2018/8/21   发布时间：2018/8/20

旧文章ID：16841

作者：CHRIS HORTON  来源：《纽约时报》中文网

　　台湾台北——台湾总统蔡英文于上周末访问了休斯敦，这是她在一周内第二次在美国短暂停留，这表明尽管中国强烈反对，华盛顿与台北之间的关系仍在不断深化。
　　蔡英文上周一前往巴拉圭和伯利兹途中在洛杉矶停留，然后周六回台途中在休斯敦停留。早些时候，她曾与三位加州的国会议员会面，其中包括民主党众议员布拉德·谢尔曼(Brad Sherman)，他呼吁美国正式邀请她到华盛顿，这将打破数十年的美国惯例。
　　自1979年转而承认中国共产党政府以来，美国一直没有正式承认台湾。中国希望吞并这个它从未控制过的自治、民主的岛屿，并且一直努力消除其他国家或公司对台湾主权的承认。
　　对休斯顿和洛杉矶的访问被视为“过境地点”，而不是正式访问，这是美国为维持与中国更好的关系而长期施加的限制之一。但北京方面甚至反对这种短暂的中途停留，最近的这两次发生在特朗普总统表示愿意挑起中国的愤怒之后。
　　特朗普对中国商品征收高额关税，引发了贸易战，3月，他签署了《台湾旅行法》(Taiwan Travel Act)，鼓励美台之间多年来没有进行过的高层官方访问。蔡英文最近的过境访问是特朗普签署该法案以来她的首次访美之行。
　　虽然没有人期望特朗普会见蔡英文，但有微小的迹象表明，美国愿意更热情地欢迎台湾总统。
　　此行还首次开放了随团媒体即时报道。她访问了台湾事实上的驻洛杉矶领事馆——这也是第一次——她还在洛杉矶附近的罗纳德·里根总统图书馆(Ronald Reagan Presidential Library)向美国媒体发表讲话。
　　“有一些她在警察护送下会见当地台湾民众，并在里根图书馆发表演说的照片。”霍夫斯特拉法学院(Hofstra Law School)教授古举伦(Julian Ku)说： “所有这些都极大提升了她的公众形象，使她看上去更像是一个正常的领导者，正在进行正常的访问。”
　　她会见了共和党和民主党国会议员，凸显了两党对台湾的强烈支持。
　　不过，在中国，蔡英文引发的充满仇恨的评论，可能只有达赖喇嘛才能匹敌。在她访问位于洛杉矶的台湾咖啡连锁店85度C后不久，中国互联网爆发了愤怒情绪，呼吁抵制该连锁店在中国的数百家门店，中国是85度C最大的市场。
　　那天，85度C的母公司开曼美食达人公司(Gourmet Master)在台湾交易所的股票交易中损失了1.2亿美元。该公司立即道歉并表示支持和平统一。
　　许多台湾人对该公司屈服于中国大陆的压力感到不满，一些人还呼吁抵制这个连锁品牌。民意调查一直显示，在实行多党民主制度的台湾，绝大多数民众反对并入中国的一党专制统治。
　　这一事件是中国政府利用自己对该国巨大市场的控制，迫使企业为其政治议程服务的最新例证。近几个月来，包括国际航企、酒店和其他品牌在内，为了应对来自北京的威胁，已经开始将台湾称为中国的一个省份。白宫称中国的做法是“奥威尔式的胡言乱语”，但并没有任何支持美国企业的举措。
　　曾在非官方外交机构美国驻台协会任处长的司徒文(William Stanton)说，如果中国因为美国企业拒绝称台湾为省而对其处以罚款，或者限制它们进入中国市场，那么特朗普政府就应该以同样的方式报复中国企业。
　　“中国设法要让台湾和蔡英文政府在全世界都不受欢迎，”他说。“搞得没完没了。”
　　国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)亚洲事务资深顾问葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示，特朗普政府批准蔡英文参观里根图书馆(Reagan library)和休斯顿的约翰逊航天中心(Johnson Space Center)，表明“他们相信她不会说或做任何会加剧两岸紧张关系的事情”。
　　自从美台近40年前断交以来，美国国会一直是台湾的坚定支持者，而且它对于以新的方式跟台湾打交道持越来越开放的态度。
　　“我认为，在某个时候，我们将不得不承认台湾独立，”德克萨斯州众议员、国土安全委员会(Homeland Security Committee)主席迈克尔·麦考尔(Michael McCaul)今年7月在美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)发表演讲时说。
　　霍夫斯特拉法学院的古举伦，是今年早些时候在众议院听证会上就加强与台湾关系作证的几名专家之一。
　　他说：“我认为，国会有兴趣为台湾做更多的事情，而且国会中的反中倾向，促使亲台议员在帮助台湾方面有了更大胆的想法。”
　　国会对美国外交政策的直接权力有限，但邀请外国领导人来发表演讲一直是它的权力，不管总统是否批准。
　　古举伦表示，他认为，如果国会要邀请蔡英文在参众两院联席会议上发表演讲，那会是“他们非常乐意看到的”。
　　“国会急于做一些事情来帮助台湾，”他说，“所以在目前的环境下，任何事情，甚至是蔡英文在国会发表演讲，都是有可能的。”

　　翻译：纽约时报中文网

来源时间：2018/8/20   发布时间：2018/8/20

旧文章ID：16833

作者：  来源：牛弹琴

　　（一）
　　制裁俄罗斯、制裁伊朗、制裁土耳其，同时，和中国的贸易战如火如荼，感觉美国现在终于找到了点当老大的感觉，打遍天下无敌手，谁不服就收拾谁。
　　但一个微妙信号正在闪现，全世界都在默默用脚投票了。
　　一个又一个国家，在悄悄地抛售美国国债。
　　以美国财政部最新公布的6月份美国国债数据：
　　中国，美国国债第一大持有国，减持了44亿美元，现持有1.1787万亿美元，为今年2月以来最低水平。
　　日本，美国国债第二大持有国，更减持了184亿美元，现持有1.030万亿美元，为2011年10月以来的最低水平。
　　俄罗斯，曾经美国国债前十大持有国之一，今年3月还持有美国国债961亿美元，5月份已大幅减少至149亿美元，创下11年来的新低。
　　现在，在美国国债前十大持有国中，已经找不到俄罗斯的名字。
　　土耳其，6月份持有美国国债288亿美元，但较年初大幅下跌了42%。
　　当然，不同的月份，外国持有美国国债也呈现有增有减的状况。但一个不容忽视的趋势是，越来越多的国家正在抛售美国国债。
　　（二）
　　为什么要集中抛售？
　　原因似乎也简单，以俄罗斯为例，美国对俄罗斯发动了多轮经济制裁，而且是刀刀见血。
　　按照美国拟议的新制裁措施，以后任何带有潜在国家安全目的的产品，例如汽轮机、电子产品、集成电路等，美国都将禁止对俄出口。
　　这还是第一波，8月22日生效。
　　三个月后，是第二波。措施可能包括：降低外交关系级别、禁止俄航直飞美国航线，以及几乎全面停止美国对俄出口等措施。
　　俄罗斯股市和汇市随即暴跌。
　　愤怒的俄罗斯的第一反应，就是迅速抛售美国国债。
　　俄罗斯财政部长西卢安诺夫就公开表示，美国对俄罗斯制裁，让美元沦为贸易中的“风险”货币。 既然只要使用美元，都可能成为美国的靶子，那对不起，俄罗斯只能去美元化，更多使用本国货币卢布和欧元等。
　　至于美国国债，现在借钱的才是大爷，万一哪天美国不高兴了，突然赖账，拒绝偿付呢？
　　这种可能性真不能排除。
　　当年2008年国际金融危机期间，时任美国财长保尔森就说，如果打小算盘的话，美国真可以听任“两房”垮台，这实际等同于征收了外国政府1万亿美元的准国债投资，其中数千亿美元来自中国。
　　也正是害怕美国这么耍流氓，保尔森披露，焦虑的俄罗斯官员立刻与中方高层接触，提议两国采取联合行动抛售美债。
　　当时美国金融市场正处于最脆弱的时候，抛售将使美国经济陷入万劫不复之地。保尔森赶紧给中国打电话，再三向中方保证，中国在美国投资很安全……
　　那还是10年前的美国，保尔森至少也曾考虑过赖账的事情；10年后的美国，感觉还有美国干不出来的事情吗？
　　最好的办法，还是落袋为安，赶紧抛售美国国债。
　　于是日本、俄罗斯、土耳其，不约而同地做了这样一件事情。
　　（三）
　　当然，有的事情，可以做，但未必要说。
　　比如，对于中国减持美国国债的说法，中国外汇管理局总是予以否认，其标准的答案大致是：
　　中国外汇储备始终按照多元化、分散化原则进行投资管理，保障外汇资产总体安全和保值增值。与其他投资一样，外汇储备对美国国债的投资是市场行为，根据市场状况和投资需要进行专业化管理，外界不要过度解读。
　　换言之，中国减持增持都是市场行为，大家都不要瞎猜了。
　　增持总有增持的理由，减持也有减持的原因，说破就是错，但未必就没有其他考虑。
　　最干脆的就是俄罗斯，公开挑明，美国你这样制裁，对不起，我就抛售美国国债。
　　当然，对中国来说，大幅减持也未必是好的选择。外汇投资有三原则：安全性、流动性、赢利性，中国外汇储备3万多亿美元，环顾这个世界，还没有一样投资品像美国国债这样符合投资原则。
　　因此，中国长期是美国第一债权国。美国漫画家最喜欢的一个套路，就是膀大腰圆的中国债主（有时候就是代表中国的大熊猫），拿着账单趾高气扬地去敲门，门后是毕恭毕敬的瘪三债主山姆大叔。
　　但这反过来就是说，这是美元陷阱啊！为了确保外汇储备保值增值，你不得不购买美国国债，但如果华盛顿哪一天真采取赖皮政策，中国毫无办法，只能是血本无归。
　　即便要抛售，更要防范美国耍流氓。比如，也不排除美国以国家安全遭到威胁为由，冻结外国的国债，甚至拒绝偿付对方的欠债。美国能够以国家安全为由对付华为和中兴，还有什么做不出来吗？
　　所以，尼克松时期的美国财政部长约翰·康纳利曾有一句名言：“美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。”
　　但美国越是流氓做派，越是加剧其他国家恐惧，不得不加入到抛售美国国债的行列。
　　别忘了，美国债台高筑，政府运行必须依靠国债。国债发行不下去，美国政府就得关门，美国经济将最终蒙受沉重打击。
　　以前还有一种说法，中美是有默契的：中国卖给美国商品，换回美元外汇，然后借钱给美国，让美国继续买中国商品……
　　这是一个循环，但现在，循环被打破了。美国一方面对中国制造下狠手，贸易战毫不犹豫；另一方面还要继续把中国当冤大头，继续向中国大笔借钱，这种趋势不太可能持续下去了。
　　要知道，任何事物都有两面性。
　　美国大棒挥舞，确保肥水不流外人田，在特朗普看来，他完全是为美国人民谋福利。其他国家迫于美国的霸道，有时也不得不妥协让步。
　　但带来的一个后果就是：其他国家无法获得对美顺差，也就自然无法获得美元；美国的霸道更让其他国家望美国国债却却步。美国事实上是在逼迫全世界去美元化，最终的结果，就是美元红利的消失。
　　当然，这个过程是曲折和长期的，也不排除一些国家暂时还会继续买进美国国债。但英国《金融时报》就刊发社论预告：总有一天，太平洋对岸将不再有一个被迫买美国国债的大买家，华盛顿方面必须为此做好准备。
　　这个世界，你不可能占尽所有好处。出来混，最终肯定是要还的。

来源时间：2018/8/20   发布时间：2018/8/19

旧文章ID：16828

作者：西岭  来源：陌上美国

　　在美国南部乔治亚州，一个叫平原(Plains)的小镇，住着一位93岁的老人，名叫吉米•卡特，美国第39任总统。现在和他和夫人罗莎琳住在一栋价值16.7万美元的老房子里，过着平静俭朴的生活。这使他与他的继任者形成鲜明的对比。

　　卡特于1977年以黑马姿态击败寻求连任的共和党人福特而当选总统，登上了权力的高峰，任期至1981年结束。他在总统任内有成功也有失误。
　　他致力推进世界和平和人权、促成埃以和平，这些是有目共睹的。对华人而言，影响最大的是在他任内实现了中美关系正常化。中美关系正常化，当然不是某一人的功劳。这个努力，始于尼克松时期，后来由于美国内部的动荡和阻力，一度停滞不前。卡特上任后，以全面实现中美关系正常化为目标，也获得中国方面的积极回应和灵活处理。经过艰苦谈判，中国和美国终于在1979年1月1日建立外交关系，使得中国打开了对外开放的最大的一扇门，也使得几十万中国学生学者得以来到美国，进行求学或学术交流。饮水思源，可以说卡特功不可没。
　　经过一个动荡的任期后，卡特于1980年败于里根，离开白宫，他回到了他的故乡乔治亚州平原镇，那一年卡特才56岁。
　　这个小镇离亚特兰大150英里，人口只有500，周遭是一片花生和棉花农田，今天仍有40%的人生活在贫困线以下。卡特现在所住的房子是早年他自己建造的，目前估价不到17万美元。他平时生活非常节俭，经常自己制作酸奶，果酱也是他夫人用自家生长的樱桃做的。用餐以后，洗碗刷盘是卡特的份内工作。
　　即使那些出身平民甚至平寒的前总统，包括他的民主党后任克林顿和奥巴马，也在卸任后，通过演讲、咨询、出任大公司董事等机会上赚取了数千万美元。这些机会不仅很容易流向前总统，而且前任的政府高官，如基辛格、赖斯、希拉里等，也都赚得盆满钵满。但是卡特退休后决定不加入公司董事会或发表巨额演讲，因为他不想“把自己在白宫的经历作为致富的手段”。
　　用他自己的话说：“别人那样做也没有什么过错，但是我从来没有把致富作为我的目标”。
　　当他从华盛顿回到平原镇时，他的花生农场业务有100万美元的债务，被迫出售。卡特夫人罗莎琳说：“我们以为我们会失去一切”。卡特决定以写书的收入来维持生活。他写了33本书，主题包括他的生活和事业、他的信仰、中东和平、妇女权利、老龄化、钓鱼、木工，等等。他还与他的女儿艾米•卡特合作写了一本儿童书：“The Little Baby Snoogle-Fleejer”。

艾米•卡特和父亲吉米•卡特

卡特手持与女儿合作的儿童书

　　总统离任以后，按照联邦法律，仍由纳税人负担他们在退休金、办公、保安方面的费用。但是卡特由纳税人负担的费用是最低的。按GSA的数据，他每年的支出是45.6万美元，相比之下，老布什开支95万美元，而克林顿、小布什和奥巴马都在百万美元以上，这些费用都是由纳税人买单。
　　以办公室而论，奥巴马的办公室每年开支53.6万美元，克林顿51.8万，小布什49.7万，老布什28.6万，而卡特只有11.6万。他是怎样做到如此低的费用呢？举例来说，按道理他完全可以使他的办公室成为一个带卧室的套间，因为他每月有一个星期要从平原镇来到亚特兰大市的卡特中心办公，但他这一个星期宁愿睡在沙发上，后来才安装了一个墨菲床(可以竖起后靠在墙边的床)。卡特如此俭朴的生活和谦逊的风格，在川普年代更显得难能可贵。当今白宫主人的骄奢狂妄，与卡特相比简直就是对立的两极。
　　说到卡特离开白宫后的工作，不能不提到卡特中心。数十年来，卡特领导这个中心为人权事业、第三世界的卫生事业、朝鲜半岛的和平和世界各地的公平选举做了大量的工作，也资助不少学者在中心从事相关的研究工作。卡特为此获得2002年度的诺贝尔和平奖，登上人生的另一座高山。
　　值得一提的是，除了卡特本人在中心的办公室由纳税人支付其开支以外(即前文所提的11.6万美元)，其他费用均由中心自筹。90多岁高龄的卡特本人也经常乘坐民用航空客机，到美国和世界各地为心作宣传和筹款。除了卡特中心以外，卡特还是Habitat for Humanity的长期志愿者和领导者。他不仅仅在纸面上倡导和支持，每年他都身体力行，亲自参加一个Habitat的项目，为低收入者建造住房。他业余喜欢做木工和建筑方面的活计，这些技巧在Habitat的项目中都能派上用场。

　　很多人认为卡特离任后的成就超过了他在任时的成就, 他也是前任总统里最受爱戴的。
　　在业余时间，卡特还是他所在的教会的主日学(Sunday School)教师，他每两周授课一次，迄今为止已经讲了800堂课。常有听众从美国各地来听讲，甚至还有从外国来的。通常听讲的人要从星期六晚上开始排队。最近一位听讲者是来自弗吉尼亚州的小听众，名叫杰克孙•卡特•莱利，他只有3个月大。他父亲史蒂芬说：“我希望孩子们长大后都象卡特总统一样，有一颗服务大众的心。”他还说，自己和太太琼安娜把儿子取名卡特，就是因为卡特谦逊的为人。
　　“桃李不言，下自成蹊”，莱利一家像那些不远千里万里，前来卡特所在教会听他授课的人一样，是成千上万卡特的追随者中间的一员。卡特本人是位虔诚的南方浸信派基督徒，信仰(Faith)在他生活中占有极为重要的地位。他有三本书都以信仰(Faith)为主题("KeepingFaith", "Living Faith", "Faith: A Journey for All").
　　卡特对川普进入白宫后的所作所为一般不作评论，但最近他开始直言不讳。他认为川普是个“灾难”，尤其在人权和平等待人方面。他和罗莎琳都认为川普最大的问题是“说假话”，和“对真相的无知和不屑”。卡特说，他的父亲从小教导他必须说真话。他在海军服役时这个价值观得到进一步的加强。在他曾经就读的海军学院，说个很小的假话都会被开除，但是现在国家最高领导人却可以每天说谎而不受惩罚。
　　卡特认为最高法院对Citizen United的判决是美国政治的转折点，使得美国从民主政治走向寡头政治。但是他坚信美国人民基本的伦理价值和道德价值没有改变。总有一天美国人民“会在正确与错误、真相与谎言、高尚与卑鄙的较量中回到正轨上来”，“不过恐怕我是看不到那一天了”。
　　卡特数年前被诊断患了癌症，但是经过治疗，位于肝部和脑部的癌细胞都已消失。再过一个多月他就年满94岁了，罗莎琳也已91岁。正应了中国人的一句古话：仁者寿。这对老夫妇已经结褵72年。周末的晚上，他们时常会去朋友家用些简单的晚餐，然后两人手拉手地步行回家。

　　在阅尽了高山的风景以后，这位美国老人回到平原，那个孕育了他的地方，过着宠辱不惊的简朴而平淡的生活。
延伸阅读：文章参考的《华盛顿邮报》文章英文全文：
The Un-Celebrity President
　　The Washington Post
　　Aug. 17, 2018
　　By: Kevin Sullivan & Mary Jordan
　　Jimmy Carter shuns riches, lives modestly in his Georgia hometown
　　Jimmy Carter finishes his Saturday night dinner, salmon and broccoli casserole on a paper plate, flashes his famous toothy grin and calls playfully to his wife of 72 years, Rosalynn: "C’mon, kid."
　　She laughs and takes his hand, and they walk carefully through a neighbor’s kitchen filled with 1976 campaign buttons, photos of world leaders and a couple of unopened cans of Billy Beer, then out the back door, where three Secret Service agents wait.
　　They do this just about every weekend in this tiny town where they were born – he almost 94 years ago, she almost 91. Dinner at their friend Jill Stuckey’s house, with plastic Solo cups of ice water and one glass each of bargain-brand chardonnay, then the half-mile walk home to the ranch house they built in 1961.
　　On this south Georgia summer evening, still close to 90 degrees, they dab their faces with a little plastic bottle of No Natz to repel the swirling clouds of tiny bugs. Then they catch each other’s hands again and start walking, the former president in jeans and clunky black shoes, the former first lady using a walking stick for the first time.
　　The 39th president of the United States lives modestly, a sharp contrast to his successors, who have left the White House to embrace power of another kind: wealth.
　　Even those who didn’t start out rich, including Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, have made tens of millions of dollars on the private-sector opportunities that flow so easily to ex-presidents.
　　When Carter left the White House after one tumultuous term, trounced by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election, he returned to Plains, a speck of peanut and cotton farmland that to this day has a nearly 40 percent poverty rate.
　　The Democratic former president decided not to join corporate boards or give speeches for big money because, he says, he didn’t want to "capitalize financially on being in the White House."
　　Presidential historian Michael Beschloss said that Gerald Ford, Carter’s predecessor and close friend, was the first to fully take advantage of those high-paid post-presidential opportunities, but that "Carter did the opposite."
　　Since Ford, other former presidents, and sometimes their spouses, routinely earn hundreds of thousands of dollars per speech.
　　"I don’t see anything wrong with it; I don’t blame other people for doing it," Carter says over dinner. "It just never had been my ambition to be rich."
　　’He doesn’t like big shots’
　　Carter was 56 when he returned to Plains from Washington. He says his peanut business, held in a blind trust during his presidency, was $1 million in debt, and he was forced to sell.
　　"We thought we were going to lose everything," says Rosalynn, sitting beside him.
　　Carter decided that his income would come from writing, and he has written 33 books, about his life and career, his faith, Middle East peace, women’s rights, aging, fishing, woodworking, even a children’s book written with his daughter, Amy Carter, called "The Little Baby Snoogle-Fleejer."
　　With book income and the $210,700 annual pension all former presidents receive, the Carters live comfortably. But his books have never fetched the massive sums commanded by more recent presidents.
　　Carter has been an ex-president for 37 years, longer than anyone else in history. His simple lifestyle is increasingly rare in this era of President Trump, a billionaire with gold-plated sinks in his private jet, Manhattan penthouse and Mar-a-Lago estate.
　　Carter is the only president in the modern era to return full-time to the house he lived in before he entered politics – a two-bedroom rancher assessed at $167,000, less than the value of the armored Secret Service vehicles parked outside.
　　Ex-presidents often fly on private jets, sometimes lent by wealthy friends, but the Carters fly commercial. Stuckey says that on a recent flight from Atlanta to Los Angeles, Carter walked up and down the aisle greeting other passengers and taking selfies.
　　"He doesn’t like big shots, and he doesn’t think he’s a big shot," said Gerald Rafshoon, who was Carter’s White House communications director.
　　Carter costs U.S. taxpayers less than any other ex-president, according to the General Services Administration, with a total bill for him in the current fiscal year of $456,000, covering pensions, an office, staff and other expenses. That’s less than half the $952,000 budgeted for George H.W. Bush; the three other living ex-presidents – Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama – cost taxpayers more than $1 million each per year.
　　Carter doesn’t even have federal retirement health benefits because he worked for the government for four years – less than the five years needed to qualify, according to the GSA. He says he receives health benefits through Emory University, where he has taught for 36 years.
　　The federal government pays for an office for each ex-president. Carter’s, in The Carter Center in Atlanta, is the least expensive, at $115,000 this year. The Carters could have built a more elaborate office with living quarters, but for years they slept on a pullout couch for a week each month. Recently, they had a Murphy bed installed.
　　Carter’s office costs a fraction of Obama’s, which is $536,000 a year. Clinton’s costs $518,000, George W. Bush’s is $497,000 and George H.W. Bush’s is $286,000, according to the GSA.
　　"I am a great admirer of Harry Truman. He’s my favorite president, and I really try to emulate him," says Carter, who writes his books in a converted garage in his house. "He set an example I thought was admirable."
　　But although Truman retired to his hometown of Independence, Mo., Beschloss said that even he took up residence in an elegant house previously owned by his prosperous in-laws.
　　As Carter spreads a thick layer of butter on a slice of white bread, he is asked whether he thinks, especially with a man who boasts of being a billionaire in the White House, any future ex-president will ever live the way Carter does.
　　"I hope so," he says. "But I don’t know."
　　’A good ‘ol Southern gentleman’
　　Plains is a tiny circle of Georgia farmland, a mile in diameter, with its center at the train depot that served as Carter’s 1976 campaign headquarters. About 700 people live here, 150 miles due south of Atlanta, in a place that is a living museum to Carter.
　　The general store, once owned by Carter’s Uncle Buddy, sells Carter memorabilia and scoops of peanut butter ice cream. Carter’s boyhood farm is preserved as it was in the 1930s, with no electricity or running water.
　　The Jimmy Carter National Historic Site is essentially the entire town, drawing nearly 70,000 visitors a year and $4 million into the county’s economy.
　　Carter has used his post-presidency to support human rights, global health programs and fair elections worldwide through his Carter Center, based in Atlanta. He has helped renovate 4,300 homes in 14 countries for Habitat for Humanity, and with his own hammer and tool belt, he will be working on homes for low-income people in Indiana later this month.
　　But it is Plains that defines him.
　　After dinner, the Carters step out of Stuckey’s driveway, with two Secret Service agents walking close behind.
　　Carter’s gait is a little unsteady these days, three years after a diagnosis of melanoma on his liver and brain. At a 2015 news conference to announce his illness, he seemed to be bidding a stoic farewell, saying he was "perfectly at ease with whatever comes."
　　But now, after radiation and chemotherapy, Carter says he is cancer-free.
　　In October, he will become the second president ever to reach 94; George H.W. Bush turned 94 in June. These days, Carter is sharp, funny and reflective.
　　The Carters walk every day – often down Church Street, the main drag through Plains, where they have been walking since the 1920s.
　　As they cross Walters Street, Carter sees a couple of teenagers on the sidewalk across the street.
　　"Hello," says the former president, with the same big smile that adorns peanut Christmas ornaments in the general store.
　　"Hey," says a girl in a jean skirt, greeting him with a cheerful wave.
　　The two 15-year-olds say people in Plains think of the Carters as neighbors and friends, just like anybody else.
　　"I grew up in church with him," says Maya Wynn. "He’s a nice guy, just like a regular person."
　　"He’s a good ‘ol Southern gentleman," says David Lane.
　　Click here to watch the video clip.
　　Carter says this place formed him, seeding his beliefs about racial equality. His farmhouse youth during the Great Depression made him unpretentious and frugal. His friends, maybe only half-joking, describe Carter as "tight as a tick."
　　That no-frills sensibility, endearing since he left Washington, didn’t work as well in the White House. Many people thought Carter scrubbed some of the luster off the presidency by carrying his own suitcases onto Air Force One and refusing to have "Hail to the Chief" played.
　　Stuart E. Eizenstat, a Carter aide and biographer, said Carter’s edict eliminating drivers for top staff members backfired. It meant that top officials were driving instead of reading and working for an hour or two every day.
　　"He didn’t feel suited to the grandeur," Eizenstat said. "Plains is really part of his DNA. He carried it into the White House, and he carried it out of the White House."
　　Carter’s presidency – from 1977 to 1981 – is often remembered for long lines at gas stations and the Iran hostage crisis.
　　"I may have overemphasized the plight of the hostages when I was in my final year," he says. "But I was so obsessed with them personally, and with their families, that I wanted to do anything to get them home safely, which I did."
　　He said he regrets not doing more to unify the Democratic Party.
　　When Carter looks back at his presidency, he says he is most proud of "keeping the peace and supporting human rights," the Camp David accords that brokered peace between Israel and Egypt, and his work to normalize relations with China. In 2002, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
　　"I always told the truth," he says.
　　Carter has been notably quiet about President Trump. But on this night, two years into Trump’s term, he’s not holding back.
　　"I think he’s a disaster," Carter says. "In human rights and taking care of people and treating people equal."
　　"The worst is that he is not telling the truth, and that just hurts everything," Rosalynn says.
　　Carter says his father taught him that truthfulness matters. He said that was reinforced at the U.S. Naval Academy, where he said students are expelled for telling even the smallest lie.
　　"I think there’s been an attitude of ignorance toward the truth by President Trump," he says.
　　Carter says he thinks the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision has "changed our political system from a democracy to an oligarchy. Money is now preeminent. I mean, it’s just gone to hell now."
　　He says he believes that the nation’s "ethical and moral values" are still intact and that Americans eventually will "return to what’s right and what’s wrong, and what’s decent and what’s indecent, and what’s truthful and what’s lies."
　　But, he says, "I doubt if it happens in my lifetime."
　　On Church Street, Carter points out the mayor’s house with his left hand while he holds Rosalynn’s with his right.
　　"My mother and father lived in that brick one," he says, gesturing toward a small house across the street. "We use it as an office now."
　　"That’s Dr. Logan’s over here."
　　Every house has a story. Generations of them. Cracked birdbaths and rocking chairs on somebody’s great-grandmother’s porch. Carter knows them all.
　　"Mr. Oscar Williams lived here; his family was my competitor in the warehouse business."
　　He points out the Plains United Methodist Church, where he spotted young Eleanor Rosalynn Smith one evening when he was home from the Naval Academy.
　　He asked her out. They went to a movie, and the next morning he told his mother he was going to marry Rosalynn.
　　"I didn’t know that for years," she says with a smile.
　　They are asked if there is anything they want but don’t have.
　　"I can’t think of anything," Carter says, turning to Rosalynn. "And you?"
　　"No, I’m happy," she says.
　　"We feel at home here," Carter says. "And the folks in town, when we need it, they take care of us."
　　’A heart of service’
　　Every other Sunday morning, Carter teaches Sunday school at the Maranatha Baptist Church on the edge of town, and people line up the night before to get a seat.
　　This Sunday morning happens to be his 800th lesson since he left the White House.
　　He walks in wearing a blazer too big through the shoulders, a striped shirt and a turquoise bolo tie. He asks where people have come from, and from the pews they call out at least 20 states, Canada, Kenya, China and Denmark.
　　He tells the congregation that he’s planning a trip to Montana to go fishing with his friend Ted Turner, and that he’s going to ride in his son’s autogiro – a sort of mini-helicopter.
　　"I’m still fairly active," he says, and everyone laughs.
　　He talks about living a purposeful life, but also about finding enough time for rest and reflection. Then he and Rosalynn pose for photos with every person who wants one, including Steven and Joanna Raley, who came from Annandale, Va., with their 3-month-old son, Jackson Carter Raley.
　　"We want our children to grow up with a heart of service like President Carter," says Steven, who works on Navy submarines, as Carter once did.
　　"One of the reasons we named our son after President Carter is how humble he is," Joanna says.
　　Carter holds the baby and beams for the camera.
　　"I like the name," he says.
　　A modest life
　　When they reach their property, the Carters turn right off the sidewalk and cut across the wide lawn toward their house.
　　Carter stops to point out a tall magnolia that was transplanted from a sprout taken from a tree that Andrew Jackson planted on the White House lawn.
　　They walk past a pond, which Carter helped dig and where he now works on his fly-fishing technique. They point out a willow tree at the pond’s edge, on a gentle sloping lawn, where they will be buried in graves marked by simple stones.
　　They know their graves will draw tourists and boost the Plains economy.
　　Their one-story house sits behind a government-owned fence that once surrounded Richard Nixon’s house in Key Biscayne, Fla. The Carters already have deeded the property to the National Park Service, which will one day turn it into a museum.
　　Their house is dated, but homey and comfortable, with a rustic living room and a small kitchen. A cooler bearing the presidential seal sits on the floor in the kitchen – Carter says they use it for leftovers.
　　In a remodel not long ago, the couple knocked down a bedroom wall themselves. "By that time, we had worked with Habitat so much that it was just second-nature," Rosalynn says.
　　Rosalynn Carter practices tai chi and meditates in the mornings, while her husband writes in his study or swims in the pool. He also builds furniture and paints in the garage; the paint is still wet on a portrait of a cardinal that will be their Christmas card this year.
　　They watch Atlanta Braves games or "Law and Order." Carter just finished reading "The Innovators" by Walter Isaacson. They have no chef and they cook for themselves, often together. They make their own yogurt.
　　On this summer morning, Rosalynn mixes pancake batter and sprinkles in blueberries grown on their land.
　　Carter cooks them on the griddle.
　　Then he does the dishes.

来源时间：2018/8/20   发布时间：2018/8/19

旧文章ID：16827

作者：Lingling Wei  来源：英文联播

　　Chinese and U.S. negotiators are mapping out talks to try to end their trade standoff ahead of planned meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November, said officials in both nations.
　　两国官员称，中国和美国谈判者正在筹划会谈，旨在于今年11月多边峰会特朗普总统和中国领导人会晤前结束两国的贸易对峙。
　　The planning represents an effort on both sides to keep a deepening trade dispute—which already has involved tariffs on billions of dollars of goods and could target hundreds of billions of dollars more—from torpedoing the U.S.-China relationship and shaking global markets.
　　这一计划表明，双方努力避免让日益激化的贸易争端破坏美中关系并撼动全球市场，目前两国争端已经涉及数百亿美元商品，可能还将对数千亿美元商品征税。
　　Scheduled midlevel talks in Washington next week, which both sides announced on Thursday, will pave the way for November. A nine-member delegation from Beijing, led by Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, will meet with U.S. officials led by the Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass, on Aug. 22-23.
　　周四两国宣布，下周计划在华盛顿进行的中层会谈将为11月铺路。在商务部副部长王受文带领下，9人中方代表团将于22日到23日与美国财政部副部长大卫·马尔帕斯会晤。
　　The negotiations are aimed at finding a way for both sides to address the trade disputes, the officials said, and could lead to more rounds of talks.
　　官员称，谈判旨在使双方找到解决贸易争端的办法，并启动更多轮会谈。
　　The talks represent a clear move by Beijing to get relations with Washington back on track that were cordial early in the Trump presidency and involved coordination to rein in North Korea.
　　会谈表明北京希望将其与华盛顿的关系恢复到特朗普执政初期、两国携手遏制朝鲜的友善轨道上来。
　　Those relations have soured, especially after Mr. Trump’s initial tariffs on Chinese imports, which he said were designed to punish Beijing for alleged intellectual-property violations and technology theft. The resulting tit-for-tat of trade threats and retaliation has hit China’s currency and stock markets.
　　可两国关系随后就恶化了，尤其特朗普先生开始对中国进口商品征税以来，他表示关税旨在惩罚北京涉嫌侵犯知识产权和盗窃技术的行为。由此引发“针尖对麦芒”的贸易威胁和报复行为打击了中国货币和股市。
　　Mr. Xi has instructed lieutenants to try to stabilize the bilateral relationship as soon as possible, according to advisers to the Chinese government. A prolonged and broader conflict with Washington, many officials and experts in China say, threatens to derail the Chinese leader’s plans to remake the economy and transform China into a global superpower.
　　中国政府的顾问说，中国领导人指示下属尽快稳定双边关系。许多中国官员和专家说，与华盛顿持续的、更广泛的冲突可能破坏中国领导人再造经济、将中国转型为全球大国的计划。
　　The talks, though, could also get derailed, especially as the U.S. continues to levy tariffs. So far the U.S. has imposed levies on $34 billion in Chinese goods, with tariffs on an additional $16 billion in goods scheduled to take effect next week. China has matched those tariffs dollar-for-dollar.
　　但谈判可能搞砸，尤其当美国要继续征收关税。到目前为止，美国对价值340亿美元的中国商品征税，另有160亿美元商品定于下周生效。中国对等价美国商品征收了关税。
　　U.S. officials have said America’s strong economy is giving Washington leverage in the negotiations.
　　美国官员表示，美国经济增长强劲，这让华盛顿在谈判中占据优势。
　　“I think investors are moving out of China because they don’t like the economy, and they’re coming to the USA because they like our economy,” said Lawrence Kudlow, the White House’s top economic official, at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. “Right now, their economy looks terrible.”
　　“我想投资者离开中国，因为他们不喜欢这个经济体，他们到美国来，因为他们喜欢我们的经济体，”白宫首席经济顾问劳伦斯·库德洛周三在一次内阁会议上说。“现在，他们的经济看起来很糟糕。”
　　But there are differing views on how to respond. The Treasury and Mr. Kudlow’s National Economic Council have put together a pared-down list of requests to China that they think could be a basis for a deal.
　　但他们对如何应对观点有所不同。财政部和库德洛的国家经济委员会拼凑了一份削减过的对华要求清单，他们认为这是达成协议的基础。
　　But the U.S. trade representative’s office, which is in charge of tariffs, wants to hold off on negotiations, arguing that additional levies would give the U.S. more bargaining power by October, said people briefed on the discussions.
　　但负责关税的美国贸易代表办公室希望叫停谈判，他们认为进一步征收关税将使美国在10月前获得更多谈判筹码，通报讨论内容的人说。
　　China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. The U.S. Treasury declined to comment ahead of next week’s talks. So far, Mr. Trump hasn’t decided between the two camps and will weigh in when there is a deal on the table, U.S. officials said.
　　中国外交部没有做出回应。美国财政部也拒绝对下周的谈判做出评价。美方官员说，到目前为止，特朗普还未在两个阵营间做出选择，等协议摆在桌子上，他才会斟酌。
　　Messrs. Trump and Xi would meet first at the leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which involves 21 economies, in mid-November, said officials in both nations. That would be followed by a second session at the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires at the end of November.
　　两国官员说，特朗普先生和中国领导人将在11月中旬由21个经济体组成的亚太经合论坛领导人峰会上进行今年首次会面。11月底，布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的20国集团领导人峰会上将第二次见面。
　　Negotiators often find that a scheduled meeting between two leaders gives an urgency to negotiations and in this case would signal the leaders’ desire not to have the trade battle spin out of control.
　　谈判者经常发现两国领导人计划会晤时，谈判会显得时不我待，这一次，两国领导人不希望贸易争端脱离控制。
　　U.S. and Chinese leaders have often met at these summits, but when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin attended the G-20 meeting of finance chiefs last month, he held no formal meetings with Chinese officials.
　　美国和中国领导人经常在这些峰会上会晤，但财政部长斯蒂芬·姆钦上个月参加二十国集团财长会议时，没有和中国官员正式会晤。
　　Next week, while the negotiators meet, the U.S. trade representative will hold public hearings on the administration’s plans for tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports.
　　下一周，谈判者会面时，美国贸易代表将举行公众听证会，讨论政府对2000亿中国进口商品征收关税的计划。
　　Beijing has pledged to respond in kind, and Chinese media are urging the public to prepare for a protracted trade war with the U.S.
　　北京表示要以牙还牙，中国媒体敦促公众做好与美国打一场持久战的准备。
　　“You’re beginning to talk about serious economic effects,” said Josh Kallmer, senior vice president at the Information Technology Industry Council, a trade association of high-technology companies, which opposes tariffs.
　　“你开始讨论严重的经济影响，”反对关税的高科技公司产业联盟信息技术产业委员会高级副主席乔什·考尔默说。
　　In Beijing, senior Chinese officials in recent days have been meeting with U.S. business executives, trying to get them to lobby the Trump administration against its proposed tariffs.
　　最近几天，北京的中国高级官员与美方企业高管会晤，试图让他们游说特朗普政府，反对拟议中的关税。
　　On Friday, Zhang Mao, head of China’s antitrust body, met with Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, and some representatives from American companies, according to the antitrust body’s website.
　　周五，中国反垄断机构负责人张茅会见了美中贸易全国委员会会长克雷格·艾伦和部分美国公司代表，国家市场监督管理总局网站消息称。
　　Mr. Zhang stressed the need to negotiate, according to the statement, and called for U.S. companies operating in China to “play an active role” in developing the bilateral trade relationship.
　　公告表明，张先生强调有必要进行谈判，呼吁在华美国公司在发展双边贸易关系行“扮演积极角色”。
　　In Washington, business groups have been urging the White House to ease their demands of China. During May talks in Beijing, U.S. negotiators handed Chinese counterparts an eight-point list that would require China to cut the trade deficit by $200 billion, scrap the industrial policies that have helped make China the world’s second-largest economy and pledge not to oppose the U.S. at the World Trade Organization on lawsuits against Beijing. China never came close to meeting those demands.
　　在华盛顿，企业集团正敦促特朗普不要对中国太过严厉。5月在北京的谈判中，美国谈判者递交给中国同行8点意见，要求中国削减2000亿美元贸易逆差、取消帮助中国成为世界第二大经济体的产业政策并承诺不反对美国在世贸组织对北京提起诉讼。中国从未答应这些要求。
　　Treasury has worked on a more refined list of demands that hew more closely to what business groups think are possible.
　　财政部搞了一份更精致的要求，削减到企业集团认为更有可能被接受的程度。
　　They include reduction of subsidies, elimination of overcapacity in steel, aluminum and other industries, cessation of pressure on U.S. companies to transfer technology, additional purchases of U.S. goods and services and strengthening of the yuan, which has fallen nearly 10% against the dollar since April, making U.S. products more expensive in China and Chinese products cheaper in the U.S.
　　其中包括削减补贴、消除钢铁、铝和其他产业的产能过剩、停止对美国公司施加压力要求其转让技术、继续购买美国商品和服务并让人民币升值。四月以来，人民币贬值接近10%，这让美国商品在中国更昂贵，中国商品在美国却更便宜。
　　The U.S. trade representative’s office, in particular, argues that Beijing hasn’t made any credible efforts to deal with U.S. complaints about intellectual property transfer and theft.
　　美国贸易代表办公室尤其认为，北京没有做出任何让人信赖的努力，以应对美国公司对知识产权转让和盗窃的诉求。
　　Some Chinese officials believe U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer  has an “old concept” of trade theory and are wary of dealing with him, one Chinese official says.
　　部分中国官员相信，美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽仍然秉持贸易理论的“老旧概念”，一个中国官员说，他们对与他接触的态度很警惕。
　　U.S. officials say that Mr. Lighthizer believes pressure on Beijing would force U.S. and other foreign companies to relocate operations outside of China, weakening Beijing’s ability to develop new technologies.
　　美国官员说，莱特希泽先生认为对北京施压可以迫使美国和其他外国企业将业务转移出中国，削弱北京发展新技术的能力。

来源时间：2018/8/20   发布时间：2018/8/19

旧文章ID：16826