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华府消息|拜登为气变峰会做准备

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作者:  来源:海外看世界-华府圈内

今天早上手机突然响起警报,平时只有洪水警报或者安珀警报才会是这样的声音,但今天打开一看发现是一条提醒16周岁以上成年人已经可以打疫苗的提醒。今天开始,全美所有州的成人已经都可以接种疫苗了。

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不过,美国等国疫苗接种的高效并不一定能让全球躲过今年年底可能到来的新一轮疫情。尤其是当前印度这个人口大国有疫情有即将失控的迹象。就连在美国,关于是否要在室外规定继续戴口罩的讨论也开始增加。同时,春暖花开让在家憋了一整个冬天的人们按耐不住,可能会在缺乏足够保护和社交距离的情况下开始增加互动。

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拜登预计在本周四、五的气变峰会上会宣布美国新的减排目标。而为了能够在届时说出更具野心的目标数字,周四之前他每天都会与两党的国会议员进行深度沟通,以确保基建议案里的减排项目不会被砍掉。

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卡特时期的美国前副总统蒙代尔去世。2019年7月,美国百余名专家学者及政商界人士在美国媒体上发表一封题为“中国不是敌人”的公开信,蒙代尔8月1日在这封公开信上签名以示支持。

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来源时间:2021/4/20   发布时间:2021/4/20

旧文章ID:24823

中美学者探讨两国关系如何重回正轨

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作者:张婷鸽  来源:环球时报

由环球时报社、美国卡特中心、北京大学中外人文交流研究基地共同主办的“中美青年学者交流研讨会——五周年特别活动”4月10日在线上举办,数十位两国青年学者和相关领域专家就中美关系如何重回正轨进行深入讨论。

活动举办当天正值中美关系史上著名的“乒乓外交”开启50周年纪念日。美国卡特中心创始人吉米·卡特寄语本次活动,他表示,美中关系正常化为两国开启了一个和平与机遇的时代。

环球时报社总编辑胡锡进在开幕致辞中表示:“今天我们似乎很需要一场新的‘乒乓外交’”。但他也认为,今天的中美关系再差也回不到50年前的原点,无论绝大多数中国人还是绝大多数美国人都不喜欢冷战,它既不是人们的愿望,也解决不了现实问题。美国卡特中心中国项目主任刘亚伟回溯了“乒乓外交”的历史以及我们能从中得到的经验。北京大学中外人文交流基地主任、全国政协常委、北京大学国际关系学院教授贾庆国认为中美两国人民都从过去几十年关系改善中获益良多,也与未来中美关系的发展利害攸关。管理好中美关系也关系到世界的前途命运,每一个关心两国和世界未来的人都应该努力使中美关系稳定下来。

对于中美关系如何重回正轨这个议题,外交部前副部长何亚非在主旨发言中提到,现在最紧迫的事情是重新定义和认识两国不断发展的新关系,并且设计一条新的前进道路。双方都要努力把所谓的“战略竞争”纳入到一个有底线和可接受规则的框架中。他还提出3点建议:从底线思维出发厘清竞争、正确认识两国的文化和意识形态差异以及采取务实对话等措施弥补信任赤字。

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美国前驻华大使芮效俭认为,鉴于冷战后美国作为唯一超级大国的权力滥用,中国的崛起是向多极世界过渡的一件好事。拜登上台后表示要重新确立美国在世界上的领导地位、重振美国外交,一些美国舆论假定美国将不可避免地与中国建立敌对关系,这是不准确且危险的。从外交经验上来讲,与一些国家存在分歧但不把它们当作敌人是很有可能的,中美需要合作的领域很多。作为当时紧跟美国乒乓球队之后第二批到中国来的年轻人,美国国务院前助理国务卿帮办谢淑丽也回忆了美好的旧时光,并从自身经验出发鼓励研究对外政策的年轻学者多关注国内因素。

来自中美两国的十几位青年学者还分别从自身经历、相关学术研究课题和政策建议等方面对如何重启中美关系进行了充分的交流和讨论。在青年学者讨论之后,环球时报社副总编辑谢戎彬、北京大学中外人文交流基地执行主任王栋教授分别作了总结发言,希望两国的青年学者能在这个重要历史时期为中美关系的发展发挥更积极的作用。

“中美青年学者交流研讨会(中美青年学者论坛)”已经举办5届。2014年9月,首届“中美青年学者论坛”在中国西安举办。


来源时间:2021/4/20   发布时间:2021/4/14

旧文章ID:24818

彭胜玉:美国还是认识不清中国政府的使命

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作者:彭胜玉  来源:中美印象

4月13日,美国国家情报总监办公室发表的年度威胁评估报告指出,中国提升全球影响力的努力是对美国国家安全的主要威胁。俄罗斯要动摇美国的影响力,争取成为主要力量也给美国带来挑战。

美国国家情报总监办公室周二(4月13日)发布的《2021年威胁评估》报告把中国描述为“近乎与美国势均力敌的竞争者”,寻求“培育有利于中国威权体制的新国际规范”,通过加强在经济、军事及科技方面的影响力,成为全球大国。这使得中国的威胁大过俄罗斯、伊朗及朝鲜。

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报告指中国“整合政府之力来扩大中国的影响力,削弱美国的势力,在华盛顿及其盟友和伙伴之间楔入一席之地。”中国在亚洲地区日益强硬,寻求发挥影响力“迫使邻国顺从”自身的意愿。报告指北京为了实现地缘政治转变,在东海、南中国海等海域增加海空军事行动,设法控制具争议地区。报告称,中国的常规和核力量越来越有能力使美军面临危险。中国同时利用太空及卫星技术侵蚀美国军事资讯情报。报告还提到,中国寻求通过登月探测任务、中国空间站以及继续“部署新的破坏性和非破坏性地基和天基反卫星武器”来“达到或超过美国的太空能力”。报告也指中国军方将继续追求建立海外军事设施,并提及中国拥有强大的网络攻击能力,最低限度能对美国基建设施造成局部破坏。

美国这份报告提到的中国的行为,哪条不是美国早都在做并且比中国做的更棒更深更广?笔者在想,美国把中国视为最大威胁,难道美国不是中国的最大威胁吗?难道美国不是世界的最大威胁吗?美国的哪个力量不是世界上其他国家最忌惮最害怕的,论安全威胁的创造,哪个国家可以和美国比肩。军事基地最多,海外驻军最多,军事力量最强,国际影响力最大,航母最多,军事科技最发达,核武力量最强大,盟友最多,发动战争最频繁,也是世界是最好战国家……此处可书一万言……,居然还好意思说别国威胁他,怎么不说说自己威胁全世界的事。

美国国务院政策规划办公室2020年底发表的一份研究中国的报告指出,中国共产党已经开启了一个大国竞争的新时代,它不仅着眼于在既定的世界秩序中占主导地位,还要从根本上修订世界秩序,把中国置于中心地位。根美国之音报道,这份名为《中国挑战的方方面面》的研究报告总结了中共的种种行为,分析了这些行为背后的思想根源。报告认为中共寻求转变国际秩序在世界事务中占主导地位。报告把中共政权定性为“一个以20世纪马克思列宁主义专政为模式、由一个威权政权来管治的大国”。根据这份报告,中国行为的主要组成部分是维护马克思列宁主义专政;利用本国的财富使其他国家对它产生经济依赖和政治从属关系,并根据中共的标准和目标在国际组织内部重新定位其方向,以及发展世界一流的军事力量。


这份报告,笔者认为,报告撰写人应该多站在中国老百姓的角度看中国的发展,就能得出完全不一样的考虑结果。


中国十四亿人吃好喝好穿好生活好,国家安定,不受外欺,才是中国的奋斗目标。如果连这个国家发展的根本都看不到的话,那么这份报告体现的就是无知,或者是故意无知。无知是因为不了解,故意无知,则是有目的。这个目的就是要导向美国或世界对中国发展的恶意看法。


天天比谁影响大,够累的。没想明白的才去追求影响力,好好发展好自身才是正道。兰德公司近期也出台了一个报告,研究中美谁在亚太影响力更大。美国的决策者和专家们都在关注中美之间长期战略竞争的两个核心问题:我们如何评估美国相对于中国的表现,以及哪个国家在印度洋-太平洋地区的影响力更大。兰德研究人员回答了这两个问题,他们首先定义了在大国竞争的背景下什么是影响力,并创建了一个框架来衡量美国与中国的影响力。这一结果为美国和中国在印度洋太平洋地区第三国的优势和劣势提供了清晰的图景——简而言之,中美两国谁在争夺影响力的竞争中“赢”了,胜利方又“赢”在哪里了。


不得不承认,美国国务院和兰德公司这两份报告,都把全球影响力领导力作为国家发展的核心追求。我不禁要问,美国国务院和兰德公司这些研究人员,有没有研究过美国的国家发展根本追求是什么?难道美国国家发展的根本追求是美国在世界的领导力和影响力?显然这些美国研究人员对美国的国家发展追求也是无知的。否则就不可能有特朗普的美国优先政策的出台。这也铸就了这类研究报告,既不接美国的地气,也不接中国的地气。


一个国家,以世界领导力全球影响力为核心追求,是愚蠢的也是打肿脸充胖子的行为。美国这几十年就干了很多这种打肿脸充胖子的愚蠢的追求世界领导力全球影响力的事。特朗普的美国优先就是对这类打肿脸充胖子的愚蠢国家追求的反省。撤回海外军队,退出各种群和协议,要求美国公司回国,优先扶持美国国内就业和产业等等,都是以美国人民为中心的美国优先。


美国打肿脸充胖子这么多年,目前自己国力衰弱,入不敷出,赤字高涨,道路失修,铁路难建,铁锈地带遍布美国,蓝领工人都仍非常支持特朗普的美国优先。对于美国这些年的追求世界领导力全球影响力的得失,中国是旁观者清。美国得到的教训,中国门清。


美国国务院这份研究报告指中国利用本国的财富使其他国家对它产生经济依赖和政治从属关系,则是明显的本末倒置。中国自身发展,国民生活标准大幅提高,乘以14亿人口,自然中国的经济体量就大了。而这种大带来的对他国产生经济依赖,则是一种市场化的自然现象。超大的经济体就意味着超大的贸易往来,这是必然的。如果和超大国家的贸易往来都视为经济依赖的话,那么那么多国家和世界最大经济体美国有很大的贸易往来,是不是都是在经济依赖美国?为什么美国得不出描述自己的这样的判断。


面对这类报告,中国也不能不管不顾,要要中正客观的声音以正视听。这个世界,很多人对中国了解很少,甚至没有兴趣了解中国更多。所以这种带偏了读者和观众的报告,我们要大声指出它的荒唐和目的。人是有区分甄别能力的,我们做的,就是帮助人们更好区分甄别对错。


中国14亿人口的发展,还有6亿人每月收入不到1000元。中国提出,到2035年,让大家和中等发达国家收入水平差不多。那么,我们这14亿人,乘上中等发达国家收入标准,无疑是全球最大的经济体,如果我们成为全球最大经济体,很多国家和我们的贸易交往,是经济红利,不是经济依赖。就是取名经济依赖,这个依赖,也是幸福的依赖。守住了14亿的市场,不是幸福的依赖是什么。美国总是拿自己的经济影响力,去制裁别国,那才是痛苦的别国对美国的经济依赖。


美国的报告,体现的要么是对中国实情的无知,要么就是别有目的的故意的无知。如果研究中国政府发展中国的根本追求,建议美国研究人员先研究美国政府发展美国的根本追求。如果他连自己国家的国家发展根本追求都研究不到位,那么他们也就没有那水平和能力研究中国。如果他们研究美国得出的结论是美国政府发展美国是为了美国人民更好的生活,那么这个结论用在这份对中国的报告上,我想是不会错的。

来源时间:2021/4/20   发布时间:2021/4/20

旧文章ID:24817

李显龙:中国欲战胜美国,必先战胜体制内官僚主义!

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作者:青山同风  来源:新岭南观察

4月19日,新加坡《海峡时报》(Strait Times)网络客户端报道,新加坡总理府消息人士说,日前,总理李显龙在新加坡政府的一次国务会议上,谈起中美战略竞争态势时,说了一句意味非常深长的话。李总理说,战略上,中国战胜美国的唯一前提,就是必须克服自身体制内的“官僚主义”。否则的话,中国超越美国,最终会成为一句空话。

李显龙说,“值得关注的是,随着中国的高速发展,以及炫目成就的取得,最近几年以来,中国执政党内部的非传统的官僚主义,开始逐渐抬头,并在一些地区甚至蔓延开来。”

李显龙认为,“这些官僚主义,在中国最主要的表现为,要么口号震天响,极端重视形象工程;要么人浮于事,得过且过;要么浑浑噩噩,不思进取………

它们的存在,不但严重影响了政府运作效率,而且败坏了社会的风气,对于执政党的形象,也是一种极大的重创!可以毫不客气地说,官僚主义对于中国软实力的提升,起着摧枯拉朽式的毁灭作用。它将极大地阻碍中国社会,在新时代的整体推进。同时,它更使得中国,在与美国的战略对抗中,逐步侵蚀着文化的巨大优势,从而使得自己慢慢处于不利的地位。

“作为同样,处于东亚儒家文化圈的新加坡,必须警惕中国式的官僚主义,在新加坡死灰复燃。否则,我们先辈创下的千秋大业,也必将毁于一旦!”

李显龙的讲话,传出以后,立刻引发国际社会的高度关注,同时,也引发了国内舆论的热议。

香港《南华早报》网络客户端,昨天发文指出,“官僚主义其实是一种封建官场的习气,是中国腐朽没落文化中最典型的代表,它大量存在于中国当今社会的各个角落。它的存在,及其发展,与中国社会的发展与进步,密切相关。它毒化了社会风气,恶化了执政党与基层人民的关系。”

《澳门日报》电子版,昨天(18日)发文时认为,“官僚主义其实就是中国社会的一颗毒瘤。它每年给中国带来的破坏和经济、精神损失,更是触目惊心,无与伦比的。根据新华社内参(4月)的披露,2020年各种官僚主义,给中国社会建设造成的直接与间接损失,累计达到了惊人的1245亿人民币。”

《中国纪检监察》网络客户端报道最近发文评论说,最近三年,官僚主义所导致或者诱发的腐败案件,累计到达了创记录的116485件,涉案金额更是天文数字一般的3265亿人民币。

与此同时,《环球时报》的总编辑胡锡进,前天(17日)在其个人公号上,也就中国的官僚主义问题发文,进行大声疾呼,并且呼吁全社会高度重视官僚主义所带来的危害。

胡锡进说,中美当前,进入了严峻的战略竞争,中国要赢得这场竞争,就应当解决或至少减轻官僚主义这个问题。要不断地提高中国社会运转的质量和有效性,千万不能不能与美国比烂。

胡锡进在文中写道,他有不少朋友跟他抱怨,经常也要参加没什么用或者效率低下的会议,经常做一些形式主义的表面文章。他也注意到,一些国家公职人员,没日没夜地工作,但有一部分时间,的确被形式主义的东西占用了。

社会上也有部分人、包括一些重要位置上的人,他们的工作,不全是以实际效果为导向的,在一些时候,形式主义的过程成为了目的本身。

胡锡进说,世界各国都有各自一些低效的地方和缘由,没有一个社会能够完全避免无用功。例如美国,通过抗击疫情,就彻底颠覆了世人对美国固有的看法。原来,美国社会也有自己的官僚主义。他们竟然那么多问题,常年原地不动。而政客们,也是光说不练。很多社会问题,例如枪械管控,政府低效,议会扯皮,党派倾轧,却也解决不了。

胡锡进认为,也许形式主义官僚主义是人类社会的通病,是克服不了的。但他强调,“我们不能与对方比烂”,当中美进入一场严峻战略竞争的时候,中国有实现这方面改进的紧迫性。中国要赢得这场竞争,说到底就是要不断提高社会运转的质量和有效性。中国应当解决或至少减轻这个问题,并且也有这样努力的空间。

确实如此,官僚主义,是中国的体制性通病,是长在我们健康肌体上的一颗毒瘤。开国领袖毛泽东,就曾经对党内数度盛行的官僚主义深恶痛绝。

他说,“官僚主义,是共产党人队伍的大敌,是中国社会的大敌,更是中国民族解放的大敌。”为此,毛泽东主席曾经在1941年5月和1957年4月,先后两次在整个中共党内,进行了大规模的“整风运动”。运动最主要的宗旨之一,就是“反对官僚主义,以整顿党风”。

过去的历史经验充分证明,什么时候中共克服了自身的官僚主义,什么时候中共的事业,就会大踏步地进步。

同样,什么时候,中共党内官僚主义盛行,或者官僚主义占据了上风,什么时候,中共的事业,将会失败或者遭遇史无前例的挫折。

发展到今天,尤其是美国拜登当局“拉帮结派遏制中国”的今天,我们必须正视弥漫在中国社会各个角落的官僚主义或者官僚主义思想,同时更必须以“刮骨疗毒”的豪迈之气,进行自我防范与自我治疗。唯有如此,在激烈的中美战略角逐中,中国才会永远立于不败之地!

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24822

中国的底牌:万一战争爆发,我们能否顶住?

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作者:  来源:观雨大神经

新中国成立以来总共打过八场对外战争,这八场战争之间的间隔都不超过10年,而从最后一场战争结束到现在,我们已经享受了32年的和平。

最近,空气里似乎又弥漫起硝烟的气息

尽管我在上一期文章里分析了中美之间兵戎相见的可能性微乎其微。

但是面对现在的紧张局面,人们心中难免会冒出一个“万一”出来。

万一美国人真的动手怎么办?

好吧,我知道这个担心无论如何是消除不了的。既然如此,今天我们就干脆来专门聊一聊这个“万一”。

先把政治啊谋略啊之类的东西放到一边,就单纯的来对比一下中美两国的军事硬实力。

军事力量虽然在和平时期看上去用处不大,但实际上他是一个国家最后的底牌,也是一个国家所有外交决策最基础的依据。 从生存安全的角度来看,中国面临的环境一直很恶劣。如果把世界看成一个丛林,那么中国就是一个名副其实的丛林孤儿。

在中国的成长历程中,团结友爱是愿景,四面楚歌是常态。

这个世界上的大哥是暂时的,只有大哥需要你去拼命的时候,大哥才是大哥;朋友是薛定谔的,只有朋友被美国抛弃的时候,朋友才是朋友。

翻开中国的近代史,基本上就是一部被群殴的故事集。

这种恶劣的生存环境使得中国对军事力量的发展有着非常迫切的需求。但是军事力量这个东西不是说你想发展就能发展起来。

发展军事不创造经济效益,成本却非常高昂。

所以国力弱就玩不转,玩不转就没实力,没实力就被吊打,被吊打国家就发展不起来,发展不起来国力就更弱。。。

海上防线

中国目前最大的军事威胁来自于海上,所以对于中国来说,海军是第一道防线,是御敌于国门之外的关键。

我们能不能睡得安稳,主要取决于海军的实力。

中国海军在近代史上的巅峰是北洋水师

北洋水师虽然战绩一泡污,但是排名很亮眼,1888年组建完成时,其巅峰实力一度排名亚洲第一,世界第六。

不过出道即巅峰,后来排名一路下跌,但是不管怎么说也是进了世界前十,在此后的一百年里,中国海军再没有回到过这个位置。

海军实力跌下去容易,涨上来很难,因为建造和维护舰队需要大量的资金和技术以及长期的投入,因此海军也被形象的称之为“吞金巨兽”。 穷,就造不出好军舰。1974年西沙海战中人民海军甚至不得不用几百吨的小艇去对抗越南的两千吨级的军舰。

世界军事水平的发展不会因为你可怜而停下来等你,上世纪80年代开始,列强海军开始逐步进入“宙斯盾时代”。

宙斯盾,就是一个以相控阵雷达为基础建立的防空和反导系统。

依靠相控阵雷达和垂直导弹发射系统,现代宙斯盾战舰可以同时拦截十几甚至二十几个空中目标,极大提升了抗饱和攻击的防御能力。整个海战规则开始被改写。

而这个时候中国海军主要军舰的战斗力还停留在西方国家五十年代的水平,防空能力几乎为零,一架战斗机就能让你GG。

96年美国只派了一艘航母过来散散步,就让中国的台海演习草草收尾。

中国只好在几年后勒紧裤带去俄罗斯购买苏联时代未完工的现代级驱逐舰来硬撑门面。

即使是重金买来的新家伙,也是没有宙斯盾系统的落后于时代的产品,跟美国的宙斯盾驱逐舰比起来是望尘莫及。

巨大的实力差距意味着中国根本无法保住家门口的制海权。没有制海权,敌国航母就可以轻而易举的带着舰载机开到你身边,对你的国土进行肆意轰炸。

别人动不动就能威胁你的腹地,你动不动就要准备国土决战,这种局面会导致各种外交决策畏首畏尾。

如果站在21世纪初的门槛望去,中国不过是一个和巴西印度差不多的二流穷国,其海军根本没有资格跟列强舰队相提并论。一个小地方随便买几艘西方二手军舰,就能在纸面实力上压过中国海军。

这也是为什么美国会在21世纪初放心的把注意力集中到中东的原因,所谓“给了中国十年的喘息机会”,其实是因为那个时候人家根本就看不上你。

十年?再给你五十年又能怎么样。

但中国终究不是印度巴西,加入WTO后,中国迎来了自己厚积薄发的时代。

随着国力的飙升,沉睡的海军工业开始苏醒。2003年,中国终于下水了自己的第一艘装备相控阵雷达和垂直发射系统的军舰。

这一套中国的“宙斯盾”系统完全由中国人自主研发(因为没人愿意卖给我们),所以也被称之为“中华神盾”。 为了方便叙述,“宙斯盾”军舰和“中华神盾”军舰在下文中都统称“盾舰” 中国海军并没有马上大批量投产新型军舰,而是采取了“小步快跑”的方式追赶世界先进水平。

所谓“小步快跑”就是指每一代技术只生产少量的产品进行验证和技术积累,在此基础上取得技术进步后,再生产一小批产品进行新的验证和积累。。。如此往复循环

经过一段时间“小步快跑”式的快速迭代,中国走完了其他海军强国几十年的进化之路。2010年,国产军舰终于追上世界一流水平

这个时候,人民海军正式开启了冷战后最大规模的造舰狂潮,此后每年下水军舰的吨位都接近全球其他国家当年下水军舰吨位之和。

""
2018年各国新建军舰吨位比例

美苏两国在冷战期间建造主力驱逐舰的巅峰速度也不过是3.1艘每年和2.6艘每年,而中国在近十年的速度达到3.7艘每年。

其中在2019年一年就下水了10艘主力盾舰,光这10艘盾舰的实力就超过了英法意海军所有盾舰战力之和。

这在整个人类海军历史上都是一个让人叹为观止的速度。

在连续的造舰狂潮下,人民海军战力水平在2013年超过法国进入前五,在2016年超过俄日英成为世界第二,最终在2019年彻底甩开列强,成为美国之后单独一档的存在。

目前人民海军现役军舰的实力已经超过欧盟海军之和。

这个爆发实在太过突然,大家还没明白怎么回事,中国海军就已经远远把美国以外的列强甩在了身后,这之间甚至连一个并驾齐驱的过程都没有。。。

当今世界上较强的海军按战斗力可以分成五个档次:

""


以下是TOP5国家主力水面战舰的数量和规模列表,其中盾舰(或装备类似宙斯盾系统的军舰)标涂绿色:

""


虽然中国迅速的将一个又一个列强甩在身后,但并没有闲工夫沾沾自喜,因为中国军队要面对的是这个星球上最强大的对手:美国

那么中美海军之间目前是什么样的实力对比呢? 中国目前数量最多的盾舰是052D,排水量约7000吨,战斗力强于欧洲最强的英国45型主力驱逐舰舰,弱于美国伯克级主力盾舰。

不过排水量几千吨的驱逐舰并非顶级海军的王牌。真正的决定性力量,是万吨级大型盾舰

中国12000吨级大型盾舰:055

核心对决

现代海军舰队中的核心力量有两个:一个是航母,一个是大型盾舰。

航母负责空袭,大型盾舰负责整个舰队的防空和反导任务以及保护航母。

当今世界现役的万吨级盾舰总共就四款:


  • 美国的朱姆沃尔特级
  • 中国的055
  • 日本的摩耶级
  • 韩国的世宗大王级


值得一提的是,日韩的这两个万吨级盾舰其实是美国伯克级的仿制拉长加重版本。虽然吨位上万,但是战斗力一般,比不上伯克级的后期型号。

大型盾舰价格昂贵战力强大,哪怕只配备一艘,也能把整支舰队的防空拦截水平提升一个档次。

美国海军世界第一,按常理推断,他们的万吨级盾舰的战斗力也应该是世界第一。 但是一款战舰的发展,不光要靠海军工业的努力,还要看历史的进程 1997年,美国准备研发最新一代的主力战舰。这个时候,美国海军正处于巅峰。

克林顿在伯克2A的甲板上放眼望去,全球的海面上竟无一个值得一提的对手。

克林顿掐指一算,制海权已经牢牢掌控在自己手中,根本没有争夺的必要。当今天下,美国人的军舰可以大摇大摆的开到任何一个国家的门口。

这也就是为什么我们总是可以在现代战争中看到美国航母肆无忌惮的带着飞机去轰炸敌国的原因。

既然保障制海权的任务交给现役主力战舰伯克级已经绰绰有余,那么再为此目的研发新型战舰就纯属浪费了。 所以1997年美国所研发的新型战舰,其设计的主要功能并不是为了争夺制海权,而是如何便宜轻松的“虐菜”:用廉价舰炮轰击海岸,在别人家门口通过一艘战舰瘫痪敌国。

他的作战目的和轰炸敌国的航母类似,但是不需要编队,不需要舰载机,行动成本更低。

这样的设计思路就要求战舰能够隐身并且拥有强大的对地攻击火力,但是不重视防空力量。 按这个思路搞出来的就是朱姆沃尔特,这艘外表科幻的战舰集成了美国最尖端的技术,单舰造价高达75亿美元,接近英国最新的伊丽莎白号航母。

不过朱姆沃尔特并非传统驱逐舰,更准确的称呼是武库舰。 美海军基本设想是制海权就继续由伯克级负责,摧毁陆地上的目标就由朱姆沃尔特负责。 美军这样的选择并没有问题,伯克级型驱逐舰虽然已经服役了二十多年,但其战斗力仍遥遥领先其他国家的主力驱逐舰。

然而人算不如天算,第一艘朱姆沃尔特刚服役,中国就下水了055。055是中国海军工业集大成之作,其战斗力全面超过了最新的伯克级主力盾舰。

这时候美国人发现制海权再也不是理所当然的攥在自己手里了。

那么更先进的朱姆沃尔特能否压制055呢?

虽然从技术上来说朱姆沃尔特远比055先进,但实战效果又是另一回事。朱姆沃尔特把高大上的技术都用在了对地攻击上面,没怎么考虑制海权这个事。

055装备有世界上最先进的双波段相控阵雷达,4面大盾(大型相控阵雷达)+4面小盾(小型相控阵雷达)的豪华配置,保证了055可以兼顾远距离目标搜索和近距离精确火控的需求。

而朱姆沃尔特只有小盾,远距离搜索目标的能力不如055。

另外055有112个垂直发射单元,防空火力上也压倒朱姆沃尔特的80个垂发单元

所以朱姆沃尔特虽然有庞大的吨位和科幻的外形,但是在制海权争夺战中的作用非常有限,其实战效果还不如伯克级,更不要说和055比了。 懊恼的美国海军不得不马上开始研发新一代传统驱逐舰,现在正在实施的有两个方案:

第一个方案是在伯克级的基础上研发伯克3。但是由于伯克级的基础太老,升级潜力有限,伯克3在设计图纸上的时候就已经落后于055

第二个方案是在朱姆沃尔特的基础上研发下一代能够适应争夺制海权需求的大型主力盾舰LSC。这个工程需要十年以上的时间。 这就意味着因为美国自己点错科技树,导致在未来至少10年内,中国的主力战舰055都将是这个星球上最强的驱逐舰。可以这么说,055的服役标志着中国军队结束了器不如人的历史

如今055已经下水7艘,预计在2025年之前可以完成首批8艘的交付并形成作战能力。

尽管美国在驱逐舰的发展上被自己坑了一把,但是其海上霸主的地位还是无法撼动的。

美国的海上霸主地位来源于他无可匹敌的航母战斗力。

美国不仅有世界上最多航母,还研发了可以垂直起降第四代战斗机F35B。能够垂直起降意味着他不仅可以布置在航母上,还可以布置在两栖攻击舰上。

也就是说,中国海军不但要面对美国11艘超级航母,还需要面对美国10艘搭载F35B的两栖攻击舰。

天空之主

世界海军力量的贫富差距非常严重,全球所有国家的海军加在一起,实力也不到美国海军的一半。

中国海军尽管近十年获得了爆发式的发展,一路冲到世界第二的位置,但是纸面实力算下来也只有美国海军两成的水平。

如果跑到太平洋中心去跟美军决战,那确实毫无胜算。美军拥有世界上最多的航母和舰载机,牢牢掌控着制空权,可以轻松的依靠大规模轰炸机秒杀掉对方舰队。

但是这种局面并不是绝对的。

战场如果在大陆近海,那就是另一回事了。

在这里美国海军不仅要面对对方海军,还要面对对方国土上的空军,如果不能击溃对方的空中力量,拿不到制空权,航母再多也是白搭。 一旦敌人进入中国海岸线1000公里以内的距离,中国空军的陆基战斗机就会加入战斗

虽然美国在中国周围也建立了很多陆基空军基地并部署了先进战斗机。但是空军基地作为固定目标很容易被弹道导弹攻击。

中国装备了大量的东风弹道导弹专门用于攻击敌方陆地机场。

美国在第一,二岛链部署的这些空军基地,在假想的中美大型冲突中是起不到实际作用的。

战端一开,火箭军齐射机场,这些基地里的战斗机根本无法安全的进行存放和补给,只能不停的转移以求自保。

美国要想拿到制空权唯有靠航母,航母是移动单位,弹道导弹很难命中。 也就是说,一旦美国进犯到中国的近海,局势就变成了:美国海军 vs 中国空军+中国海军。 美国航母一般都有一两艘在船坞轮换维修保养,还有中东和大西洋执勤的需要,能出动到亚太的航母也最多就6艘左右。

当然料敌从宽,我们可以按照10艘航母+10艘两栖攻击舰来估计,这套阵容最多能携带六七百架舰载机参与到中美战场。

那么双方能投入战斗的空中力量对比大致是这样的,

美国海军和海军陆战队最多能携带700架先进战斗机到前线,其中包括:F-35C、F-35B、F-18E/F/G、F-18C/D 等型号。 中国约有1300架先进战斗机可以投入战斗,其中包括:歼-20、苏-35、歼-16、歼-15、歼-10系列、歼-11系列、苏-30MKK等型号

目前只有中美拥有超过1000架的现代化战斗机,其规模和质量都要领先其他国家一个身位。

不过空战有这么一个特点:技术领先的战斗机可以轻松的对技术落后的战斗机实现以少打多,而且还是吊打。

所以空中力量不能光看数量,还要看装备的技术水平。

现在世界各个空军强国的主要装备仍以第三代战斗机为主

其中最先进的三代机也被称为三代半战斗机,其特点是装备新型有源相控阵雷达,发动机性能更优秀,拥有很强的超视距攻击能力。

目前世界上的三代半战斗机有:欧盟的台风;法国的阵风;美国F-18E/F、F-15SA;俄罗斯的苏-35;中国的歼-16、歼10C等。 不过三代半战斗机即使再强悍,本质上仍是旧时代的产物。

当前处于空战食物链顶端的最强战斗机是四代机(俄标也叫五代机),拥有隐身能力,可以轻松秒杀三代机。

四代机的代表作是美国的F22。拥有F22的美国空军,再一次毫无悬念的对世界其他国家实现了空中碾压。

2011年,美国空军正处巅峰,

奥巴马在F22的座舱里放眼望去,全球的天空中竟无一个值得一提的对手。。。。

奥巴马掐指一算,在自己下一代战斗机研发出来之前,F22已经没有添丁的必要,为了节省维护费用,所以干脆就把F22的生产线给拆了…拆…了… 结果2017年,中国的四代机J-20服役

同年,特朗普想恢复F22的生产线,但因为耗资巨大最终作罢。于是性能更弱,价格更便宜的F35就确立了自己在美军空中力量中的主力地位

中国搞出四代机并迅速形成战斗力这个事不光是对美国,对世界其他国家刺激也很大。

各国随后也纷纷拿出了自己的四代机方案,在他们眼里,中国能搞出来我肯定也能,遗憾的是事实证明他们并不能。

目前能搞出四代机的仍然只有中美俄三国,世界上能飞的四代机只有5款。 美国的F22,F35;俄罗斯的苏57;中国的J20,J31。

其中F22,F35,J20,苏57已经服役,J31目前只有原型机,正在为成为舰载机进行改造研发。

评价四代机的战斗力有四个标准:1.隐身2.超机动3.超音速巡航(不开加力长时间超音速飞行)4.超态势感知 在这四款服役的四代机里,苏57的隐身能力并不达标,严格来说苏57并没有跨入四代机的门槛。 F35不具备超音速巡航的能力,超机动能力也很弱。

J20 基本满足四项能力,但是因为目前的发动机动力不足,没有矢量推力,超机动性能还没有达到设计目标。

F22满足四项能力,目前综合实力最强。 不过随着中国的技术进步,J20的短板会不断的被弥补,日后国产新一代发动机WS15成熟,J20将一跃超过F22成为全球最强的四代机。。 而F22因为奥巴马的骚操作把生产线拆了,未来已经无法升级出的新的改进型号。

战局推演

实战的效果不能光看纸面数据,还会受到各种后勤因素的影响。

交战地离本方基地越近,战斗机补给越方便,战斗力越强。 美军为了让本方战机能够得到充分补给,航母就要尽可能的靠近作战区域。 于是这就出现了一个矛盾,美军航母如果距离中国大陆过近(小于800公里),就会暴露在中国陆基战斗机突袭和轰炸机打击的半径内。中国大陆近海的反舰火力密度很高,美军航母会非常危险。

如果航母距离大陆过远(大于1000公里),虽然相对较安全,但舰载机就不得不飞行很长的距离去参战,这就导致油料不足以支撑空战格斗的需要,于是空战能力严重下降。

就算双方战斗机空战能力处于均势,后方平台的安全性也不在一个等级。陆地机场不会沉没,而航母挨上两三发导弹就可能会丧失战斗力。 当然,美军之所以会陷入这样的矛盾中,根本原因在于解放军的海空军联合战力和美国海军相比已经没有代差。基于强大的军力,中国的主场优势可以得到淋漓尽致的发挥。 总结起来,美军如果要进犯中国就会面临这样的局面: 美方倾举国之力用航母和两栖攻击舰搭载700架舰载机来挑战中方1300架三四代空优战斗机。

为了规避航母被击沉的风险,美军舰队只能停留在海岸线1000公里左右的地方等待空战的结果。

而中国强大的海军舰队则会在本方战斗机的下方为空战提供有力的支援。

双方空战时,美军战机会受到很多限制,甚至连绕到我方战机身后这样的动作都很难做到,因为海面上有中国海军的盾舰雷达照射,天空中有陆基空军的大型预警机监视,我方战机没有盲区。

另外,美军战机还要随时提防来自海面盾舰群的密集防空导弹的攻击,而我方战机则可以有恃无恐的专心格斗。

再加上大量地空导弹的火力支援,美军想靠700架飞机在中国近海拿下制空权是没有机会的。 如果拿不下制空权,就不可能空袭大陆要塞和城市。唯一能做的,就是在上千公里之外远距离发射几千发战斧巡航导弹, 巡航导弹飞得远,但是速度慢。几千枚战斧远远不足以穿透中国近海由大量军舰和地空导弹系统组成的严密防空网。

中国各类武器防御圈

当年科索沃战争,北约在绝对制空权优势下,空袭轰炸的飞机共出动32000架次,投弹13000吨,才使得仅一千万左右人口面积仅相当于浙江大小的南联盟屈服。 而如果没有制空权,轰炸部队在空优战斗机面前基本上就是送人头。

实际上对于美军来说,考虑怎么样全身而退才是最现实的问题。

因为如果拼光了舰载机,就意味着中国的上百架轰炸机可以大摇大摆的飞到美军舰队的防空圈外发射数百枚反舰导弹。。。

也就是说在当前的实力对比下,美军即使押上所有能押上的力量,也无法对中国大陆造成实质性的伤害,反而还可能交代掉一批军舰和舰载机。

美国的兰德公司前几年出了一个报告,这个报告里制作了一个表格对中美在第一岛链某区域的各项军事实力做了一个直观的对比。

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这个表格分别针对4个时间点比较了9个军事项目。

其中深绿表示美方明显占优,浅绿表示美方占优,黄色表示势均力敌,橘红色表示中方占优。

我们看到从1996到2017,中国的优势在明显增加。

1996年的时候大部分项目是美国明显占优,到了2017年的时候,中国有2个项目占优,美国有3个项目占优,剩下4个项目全都是势均力敌。

也就是说按照兰德公司的看法,在第一岛链这个区域,中国军力在2017年的时候就已经追上了美国。

而2017年对于中国的军事发展来说,只不过是新一轮爆发的一个起点。

攻守之势

无论是兰德公司之前的报告,还是我们现在的分析,随着时间的推移,这些结论的准确性都会降低。

因为中国的军事力量发展得太快了。

目前中国船厂里正在制造第三艘国产航母003,并接近下水。003是中国海军又一个划时代的装备。

其吨位接近于美国现役主力航母尼米兹,并将采用的是当今世界最先进的电磁弹射技术。这是二战以来美国航母第一次有了实力接近的竞争对手。而对标美国最新航母福特级的国产核动力航母004也已在未来十年的计划中。

在空中力量方面,我们很快会看到对标美国B2的国产隐身远程轰炸机轰20亮相。

趋势是什么呢?就是随着时间推移,中国受威胁的概率和程度只会越来越小,西太平洋攻守之势将易。

我们现在看到的很多决策,正是基于这样的底气。

这时候有人会有一个新的问题:我们这样做算不算军备竞赛?经济上扛不扛得住呢?毕竟当年苏联就是被军备竞赛拖垮了。

关于这个问题我们可以参考几个数据:

当年苏联为了应付冷战的军备竞赛,其军费占GDP的比例长期在10%以上。

现在的美国呢?因为没有冷战的压力,所以现在美国军费GDP占比维持在3%-5%的水平

那么近十年军备大爆发的中国的军费GDP占比是多少呢?

1.5%左右的水平。

也就是说虽然在外界看来近几年中国的军事发展非常热闹,但实际上中国根本就没有真正发力。

而这种性价比主要得益于中国自身完善的产业链体系所带来的超高效率。

我们可以举个例子来对比一下。

最近美国新一代护卫舰FFG(X)建造计划招标结束,中标的是意大利Fincantieri集团,因为他们的方案最便宜。

护卫舰在舰队里的定位低于驱逐舰,是一个辅助型的角色。

既然是辅助型角色,自然追求的主要是性价比。这个所谓的新一代护卫舰技术上并不先进,综合实力和中国较早的052C驱逐舰差不多,原因无他,成熟的技术更便宜。

那么美国人费尽心机压低成本的新护卫舰造价多少呢?

第一艘FFG(X)护卫舰的造价高达12.81亿美元,即使后期量产成本下降,也要10亿美元的造价,折合人民币达七八十亿元。

这什么概念?世界上最顶尖的盾舰,排水量是FFG(X)两倍的中国主力大驱055,造价也不过是60亿人民币。

套用田忌赛马的逻辑来看,美国的下等马买得比中国的上等马还贵了。

其实这也很正常,世界工厂的一大功能就是把高大上的东西干成白菜价。包括军备。

所以任何国家想与中国进行军备竞赛,都无异于自己给自己放血。

基于成本优势,中美之间的军力差距会逐步缩小,缩小的速度主要取决于中国方面投入的力度。

结语

从这二十多年来中美军力发展的历程来看,很显然21世纪初的中国崛起对于全世界来说都是一场意外。大多数国家并没有做好准备适应这个变局。

中国目前已建的,在建的,还有计划中的隐身战斗机、盾舰,重型航母,新型远程轰炸机等等这些装备,肯定不是为了在家门口散步用的。

人民海军的口号是:向海图强,逐梦深蓝。道理很简单,军队的利剑越长,国家的本土就越安全。

值得一提的是,沪东造船厂最近下水了两艘4万吨级大型两栖攻击舰075,再加上之前服役的八艘2万吨级大型两栖船坞登陆舰071,人民海军终于获得了由十艘大型两栖攻击舰和登陆舰组成的强大登陆力量。

二十年卧薪尝胆,中国大陆已经在打明牌。

强大的军事力量保证了无论现在的局势看起来如何紧张,也不会滑向失控的深渊。所有的争端都会止于利弊之选,而不会有存亡之虞。

其实我们现在所处的时代和以前已经不一样了,对于大多数国家和地区来说,相互协作要好于相互掠夺。

但另一方面,时代又没有变,强盗逻辑的枪口仍然指着每一个人的脑门。

所谓强盗逻辑,就是他们揍了中国一个世纪,现在中国爬起来了,他们揍不动了,居然反过来说中国是“威胁”。

所以,去在意其他国家的看法是没有意义的,只有坚决的回敬强盗一个枪口,才有资格去做自己的选择。

不过正所谓三十年河东三十年河西,如今所有武力觊觎中国的势力都要面临一个灵魂拷问:

为什么要去挑衅世界上最大的现代工业国家呢?

活着不好吗?

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/16

旧文章ID:24821

美驻中大使其人其事:资深外交家,专栏作家, 哈佛教授伯恩斯

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作者:子哲  来源:美国亚裔快讯

据Axios报道,拜登在众多热选名单中选定伯恩斯为其驻华大使。伯恩斯现任哈佛大学教授,曾任美国国务院发言人,小布什总统时期的副国务卿。这是过去四任驻华大使后首次任命的职业外交官。前四位都是经过选民的认可, 不是参议员就是州长。

今年二月彭博新闻报道了伯恩斯的任命可能。

伯恩斯今年65岁,1956出生于纽约州水牛城,成长于麻萨诸塞州卫斯理,他和夫人 Elizabeth A. Baylies 生育三个女儿:Sarah, Elizabeth,Caroline。伯恩斯在卫斯理高中期间在卢森堡大公国短期义工, 开始了他的外交生涯的国际经历。

伯恩斯毕业于波士顿学院历史学士,专注欧洲史, 三年级时在巴黎大学获得法语证书。他在约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院国际关系专业获得硕士,专注国际经济,美国外交政策和非洲研究。他会说法文,阿拉伯文,希腊文。

伯恩斯与后来成为夫人的Elizabeth A. Baylies在波士顿学院本科毕业典礼。

伯恩斯和克林顿总统以及克里斯多弗国务卿

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2000年伯恩斯与夫人在雅典雕塑家Thodoros Papayiannis为美国前国务卿马歇尔制作的雕像前

伯恩斯在2001–2005由小布什总统任命为美国驻北约大使,1997 –2001由克林顿总统任命为驻希腊大使,1995–1997任美国国务院发言人。2008年,在为美国联邦政府工作27年后, 他转入商界,在1997年至2001年在比尔·克林頓总统時期任美国国防部長的威廉·科汉在2001年创立的科汉集团(Cohen Group)任职。在哈佛大学的教授职位上,他讲授课程包括外交,美国对外政策,和国际政策。他在15间大学获得了荣誉学位。

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2004年在土耳其出席北约会议,小布什总统,拉姆斯非尔德防长,  驻北约大使伯恩斯,和鲍威尔国务卿。

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2005年副国务卿伯恩斯与切尼副总统出席Toria Nuland签署就任美国驻北约大使仪式。

伯恩斯在拜登2020总统竞选团队任外交政策顾问,在希拉里2016年总统竞选团队任非正式外交政策顾问,2009-2013年间任副总统拜登国家安全顾问布林肯的团队成员, 他也是外交政策智库阿斯本战略集团执行主任。他也为高盛,美国银行(BOA),道富,花旗银行,好莱坞等企业提供咨询和付费演讲。

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2014年伯恩斯与康乃迪戈州高中学生交谈

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2019年伯恩斯与德国总理梅克尔在哈佛大学

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24820

替中国人怒怼BBC,这个美国人是谁?

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作者:黄泓翔  来源:中南屋世界公民教育

01.

4月16日,一期视频在油管上爆火:“杰弗里·萨克斯因《新闻之夜》中对中国人权问题的污蔑而失控。”

杰弗里·萨克斯是著名全球发展问题专家,美国哥伦比亚大学经济学教授。同时,他也是前联合国秘书长安南的高级顾问,被《纽约时报》称为“世界上最重要的经济学家”。

《新闻之夜》是BBC的栏目之一。16号的这一期便是BBC以气候变化问题为主题,对杰弗里·萨克斯以及“人权律师”滕彪进行的一场专访。

节目一开始,BBC便播放了一段视频:以美国决定重回巴黎协定,以及气候特使约翰·克里(前国务卿)4月14日访问上海等举措,来论证美国对气候问题的态度转变。紧接着,BBC指出中国和美国是世界上最大的污染国,因此两国需缔结相关的条约来应对气候变化。

但话锋一转,BBC突然开始描述中国“糟糕的人权纪录”,先后通过新疆“集中营”、香港问题以及“种族屠杀”,来“论证”中国人权现状的糟糕。

最后,便是一个充满遗憾的声音:“有的国家太大、也太强了,以至于我们难以施加压力,让它去做该做的事情。”

声音戛然而止,让人一头雾水:人权和气候变化有什么关系?

但让人更加疑惑的是,视频刚刚结束,主持人便开始提问杰弗里:“美国拜登政府对中国人权问题强烈谴责,却希望在气候变化问题上跟中国合作,你觉得这个有可能吗?”

显然,在BBC看来,人权与气候变化两者关系密切。因为中国存在着“人权问题”,所以他们有理由认为,中国在气候变化这一领域的态度也是有问题的。

杰弗里显然也被这一逻辑震撼到了,但还是保持着学者的儒雅微笑,并送上了教科书般的、有理有据、直指问题本质的反问:

“我不知道为什么BBC在节目一开始就大谈、且只谈中国的‘人权问题’,那美国的‘人权问题’呢?为什么不谈和英国一起发动的、依托于‘假证据’的、完全非法的伊拉克战争?还有叙利亚战争、利比亚战争,对委内瑞拉的所谓制裁,退出巴黎气候协定……还有国会山暴动,还有美国国内的种族歧视、白人至上主义……”

BBC主持人试图打断杰弗里,但是他越说越激动,不肯停下:“我发现这个节目的叙事框架有点奇怪,我以为我们是来谈气候变化的——我们也应该如此。然而,这整个节目的叙事框架就是‘啊!你看中国多么糟糕,我们怎么可能跟他们沟通、合作呢’,这也太奇葩了!”

主持人无法打断,也无力招架,只得发动甩锅技能:“我只是在说拜登政府说的话啊——”

杰弗里耸耸肩、翻了个白眼道:“美国总是把自己放在道德制高点,攻击其他国家的人权问题,这简直是荒谬!我知道美国的政策,我知道生活在一个种族主义的国家是怎样。很巧哈,我就生活在一个种族主义国家:美国!”

杰弗里无法理解这个访谈为何“挂羊头卖狗肉”,但他实在是不想在人权问题——这个与气候变化相差一万八千里的问题上继续讨论了。他努力把话题带回“正轨”,也就是对气候变化问题的讨论:“中国和美国一共排放了世界上40%的二氧化碳,因此两国通力合作是十分必要的……”

但是,这不是主持人想看到的局面——毕竟BBC只想谈论中国的“人权问题”。她迅速接走了话茬:“好的好的,我们接下来再讨论你的观点”;随即赶紧将目光投向了另一个节目精心安排的嘉宾:一位流亡海外的中国人、“人权律师”滕彪。

“作为一个被中国拘禁、流放过的人,你是否觉得中国和美国能够、应该在气候变化的问题上合作?”

滕彪仔细描述了一通中国政府对他的“暴行”,然后为美国辩解:“中国的人权问题跟美国的人权问题根本就不是一个严重程度,中国在新疆的所作所为,那可是种族屠杀啊!”

然后他下定结论:“你能想象一个种族屠杀、不尊重人权的国家,有可能在乎地球、在乎气候变化吗?”

BBC的目的昭然若揭:没有什么比让一个中国人自己说中国不好,更有说服力了吧?

顺着滕彪的话,主持人又将目光投向了杰弗里。但作为一个媒体采访经验丰富的学者,杰弗里没有掉进主持人的圈套,坚定地表达自己的观点:“中国和美国应该坐下来对话,互相理解,一起合作去应对气候变化。我们需要的,绝对不是去说‘噢,中国人权问题这么糟糕,我们也不可能和他们在应对气候变化的方面合作’。”

在杰弗里看来,这样的思维不仅荒谬,也对亟待解决的气候问题毫无益处。

不多说了,强烈推荐大家自己去看这期节目完整的油管视频(点击【阅读原文】观看视频)。就像我经常说的:不要轻易相信别人给你的结论,而是应该去亲自接触第一手信息、得到自己的结论。

02.

看完这期节目,我们一定会感动于杰弗里替中国辩护,也一定愤慨于BBC带有强烈主观色彩的“新闻报道”。当然,还有一个疑问有待解答:这个人为什么会帮助中国怒怼BBC?

很重要的一点是,尽管作为一名土生土长的美国人,但杰弗里从来就没有把自己定位成一个单纯的“美国人”。

相反,他把自己定位成了一个“世界公民”。

阿根廷、巴西、厄瓜多尔、委内瑞拉、波兰……几十年里,杰弗里一直在世界各地游走,帮助一个个国家解决自己的经济、金融难题。对了,他就是“休克疗法”的提出者(虽然他自己不喜欢这个名字)。

在行走世界的过程中,杰弗里看到了世界各地的无数苦难,却更加坚定地认为,世界可以变得更好。

他提出了“贫穷陷阱”理论,认为穷国的人被困在一个陷阱之中:“因为没钱、所以读不了书、所以找不到好工作、所以下一代也没钱”。因此,只要我们能从外界给他们提供一个“推力”,就能够让他们从里面出来,走向正循环。杰弗里针对这个问题所写的经典著作《贫困的终结》,后来成了全世界可持续发展工作者们内心的“圣经”。

此外,他还提出了“联合国千年发展计划”,在非洲选择了一些贫穷的村庄进行他的实验。

作为联合国的可持续发展特殊顾问,杰弗里见证了“联合国千年发展目标”如何变成了今天的“联合国可持续发展目标”。

当然,在这个过程中他遇到过无数挫折,也被许多人批评。

“你的经济政策是错误的!休克疗法在东欧多么失败!”

“你的联合国千年村庄没有意义!没有对照组,你怎么知道这些措施真的有效?”

可以说,有多少赞美,就有多少毁谤。

关于杰弗里提出的举措是否足够有效,大家争议不休。但是,就连批评他的人都不会否认:这是一位发自内心热爱这个世界、也希望这个世界变得更好的理想主义者。

是的,对于杰弗里来说,比起自己的国家“美国”,他更在乎的是这个世界。

这恐怕也是他能在这次BBC上节目上仗义执言的原因。

看完这期节目,我发自内心地敬佩杰弗里——不单是因为他“替中国说了话”,更是因为,他把自己定位为世界公民,敢于发出与身边大众不同的声音,去寻找国家与国家、族群与族群之间对话的可能。

作为一个有国际视野的人,他清楚地看到了:中国与美国必须合作,而不是互相谴责,否则我们无法应对气候变化。

作为一个发自内心在乎这个世界的人,他清楚地知道:自己要去努力,打破人们心中的墙,让不同族群的对话成为可能、促成国与国的合作。

如果不这样,世界怎么能变得更好呢?

参考文献:

1.https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E6%9D%B0%E5%BC%97%E9%87%8C%C2%B7%E8%90%A8%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF/8574488#reference-[13]-1213111-wrap

2.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmd6WFoNS2w

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24819

张千帆:解析华人川粉现象

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作者:张千帆  来源:《思想》总第42期,2021年4月

【编者按:本文原载“极权主义认知障碍”,《思想》总第42期,2021年4月,第209-226页;作者授权本站发布。作者为北京大学宪法学教授。】

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一、中国自由派的再分裂

新年1月6日,美国国会发生短暂骚乱后完成各州选举人投票的认证;川普承诺“顺利过渡”,这场史诗级总统大选终于基本落幕。史诗级大选催生史诗级大剧,大选前后一直亢奋不已的挺川者仍旧“川流不息”。在太平洋两岸的中国“自由派”圈子,支持川普总统的大量“铁粉” 不愿意接受自己的偶像败选的事实;去年11月3日投票结束后,我所在的自由派微信群每天都能看到大量诸如宾州参议院“听证”爆出百万选票失踪、计票软件作弊等惊悚消息,[1] 几乎所有这类耸人听闻的“爆料”都是未经核实或已被证伪的假消息。[2] 大选落幕后,这些人仍然“高烧”不退,一如既往地散布针对大选舞弊的各种阴谋论。在他们眼里,川普这位完美无缺的“天降伟人”承载着“让美国再次伟大”的伟大“天命”,对他连任的任何障碍都是违背上帝旨意的邪恶力量;既然主媒“造假”、选举“舞弊”、法官从下到上被集体“收买”,下一步只剩下“人民”的武力自卫了,“天降伟人”必须“林肯再世”,施展霹雳手段才能再造美利坚。大选之后的短短两个月之间,美国从他们的“上帝灯塔”沦落为黑暗不亚于此岸的“深层国家”。

所有大陆官媒以及“大外宣”加起来都常年达不到的效果,居然通过这次美国大选中的各种右翼媒体造谣轻松达到了,而且确信得那么坚定不移,其中不乏自由派“公知”和学院派“高知”。谁知道呢?也许,貌似不可理喻的背后确实有“大国”的影子。这么说听上去有点“诛心”,但这么多年来,谁在朝思暮想“搞乱”美国呢?其实,他们没有能量实质性干扰美国的民主政治,[3] 但确实有能力抹黑乃至熄灭自由派心中的那盏“灯塔”,搅乱自由派的宪政信仰并加剧其内部撕裂。最有效的办法不正是把宪政美国抹黑成和极权大国一样,让他们对美国的新闻自由、选举公平乃至司法独立丧失信心吗?当然,内因仍然是主要的,外因通过内因起作用。自由派分裂的根本原因还在于其中相当一部分人长期生活在极权体制下,对宪政民主形成了认知障碍。

有人指出,这是中国自由派在1990年代初和“新左派”决裂之后的第二次大分裂。[4] 此次自由派内部分裂之所以值得重视,是因为它是中国转型“第二天”的一次剧情预演。“第二天”也许不会到来,因为“第一天”没有如期而至;但是如果“第二天”真的来了,中国也有了类似于2020年的美国大选,我们能否抓住机会?我们会不会像这次众多“川粉”表现的那样,只要不是自己的人赢,就认定大选“舞弊”?为了一个自己眼里的“天选之子”如痴如狂,几乎一夜之间否定美国两百年宪政的一切成就——基本中立而准确的新闻媒体、自由而完整的选举体制、政治中立的联邦和地方公务员、独立而公正的司法系统,甚至不惜扬言再来一次“内战”?如果未来中国选举选出的不是自己中意的人,我们会善罢甘休、认赌服输吗?从这次自由派的表现来看,大概率会发生你的人当选了,我就说是“舞弊”;我的人当选了,你就说是“造假”,最后还是由枪杆子来决定胜负。

美国大选也是对中国自由派的一次相当真切的“民调”,暴露了许多“自由派”的认知障碍——是的,认知障碍(cognitive pathology),而一旦患有这种极权体制下长期形成的认知障碍,“自由派”就不得不打上一个引号。我知道这么说可能会得罪很多人,也许会让许多原来的同道感到难堪,但我仍然必须这么说。一是因为我只是在陈述一个事实,而并未刻意贬低或抹黑——此次大选揭示出来的表现说明,自由派中的许多人成天喊着宪政、民主,实际上是很不适应多党民主政治的,因为他们的思维就是一党制逻辑。二是因为有障碍就得治疗,而不是怕别人说;既然声称是“自由派”,总不能在思维和表现方式 上和自己成天批判的对象高度一致吧?再说,面子真的有那么重要吗?但凡身体有问题都知道治,思维有问题难道就应该“讳疾忌医”吗?
    二、再析“川粉”现象

尽管有些朋友对“川粉”这个标签很反感,我还得说说“川粉”现象。看到众多自由派川粉甚至不少“高知”信谣传谣,我不免由衷感到悲哀。毋庸置疑,这是一种必须深刻反思的耻辱,连我都感到耻辱——在很多支持中国宪政事业的民主派眼里,原来你们中国人就这个素质?连口口声声要民主的“自由派”都这样?原来你们真的什么都不行,造谣传谣却“世界第一”,难怪……遗憾的是,川粉们似乎还把这一切当作是荣耀,还在一口一个“造假”、“舞弊”——对于他们来说,反正目的是好的,用心是善的,传个谣算什么事吗?别人指出不仅不反思,反而恼羞成怒、恶语相向……正常的尊严感和廉耻感的丧失比信谣传谣本身可怕得多,它体现了极权教育长期造成的恶果。

本文论述“川粉”只是作为一种客观存在的现象。它确实带有贬义,但是没有道德贬低的意思——有的川粉很执着,甚至有点可爱。我当然并不在普遍意义上反对川普或共和党的政策支持者——尽管我不支持这种立场,这完全是他们的自由。然而,“川粉”不只是一般意义上支持川普,而是为了无条件支持川普这一个人,乃至失去了正常的判断标准——任何关于他的负面消息都是假消息,任何针对他的不利结果都是有问题的,甚至是deep state幕后操作的结果;如果川普输了选举,则不是因为大规模舞弊,就是因为多数选民被“白左”洗脑。总之,他们宁愿听信各种自己愿意相信的小道消息,而不愿意查实这些消息的真伪。

如果你不是这类人,那么没有必要自己“对号入座”;如果你是,也没必要否认;如果你认为自己共享了川粉的某些问题,那么对你来说更重要的是解决这些问题,而不是否认这些问题或迁怒于指出这些问题的人。

根据我对微信群言论的观察,川粉大致可分为三类。一类是比较“庸俗”的偶像派,他们不论什么原因,就是喜欢川普这个人的做派,或羡慕他的财富、伊万卡的美貌、商业帝国的成功、家族政治的霸气、随心所欲的风格、接地气的实在……“庸俗派”在华人圈子大有人在,但不值得多说,有此情结的知识分子也不好意思说出来,但骨子里可能就是偶像崇拜,没有更多。

第二类川粉则不论他个人如何,因为川普对华强硬而将其视为中国“救星”,无条件力挺他连任。这本来是一种可以接受的立场,但是如果一厢情愿到了完全抛开美国宪政规则不管不顾,把一个人置于整个制度之上,则无疑入戏太深。毕竟,这是美国人在选自己的总统;绝大多数“救星派”并无选票,本来心平气和吃瓜围观选战即可,美国人选谁就认谁,而完全不必徒劳把自己的偏好强加于美国政治。但“救星派”不甘错失千年机遇,只要美国人不选出自己钟情的“救星”就认定大选“舞弊”、“灯塔”没落,所有不积极挺川的华人公知也都有心怀叵测甚至带了大外宣“任务”的嫌疑。

和以上两类相比,第三类川粉最高大上,因为他们有理论或价值“自信”:他们之所以喜欢川普,或是因为他是神所相中的“天选之子”、“天降伟人”,或是因为他是“保守主义”的传承人和代言人,或是因为他们坚信再也不能让“社会主义”、“政治正确”、“黑命贵”在美国泛滥下去,否则“山巅之城”、“灯塔之国”必将荣光不再……总之,他们有一套自认为绝对“正确”的教义,也找到了一个信奉这套教义的“组织”,这个组织现在终于有了一位千年一遇的领袖。这样的人败选,真是天理不容!美国大选发生这样的事情,只能有一种可能,那就是“深层国家”的大规模“舞弊”——虔诚信神的美国人眼不瞎,怎么会把那么多票投给拜登这样的“败类”?[5] 在认定自己“真理”在握的同时,三类川粉也直接把川普的对立面——美国民主党——打成和极权同类的“白左”,[6] 拜登儿子的“硬盘门”等“海妖级证据”无疑做实了民主党和极权体制暗地勾兑的“事实”。美国大选就是正义和邪恶的较量,“正义必胜”构成了“理论自信派”的自信基础。

上述三类川粉并不互斥,而完全可以互通兼有。许多川粉貌似支持他的对华政策或治国立场,但骨子里很可能只是崇拜他这个偶像。二类川粉可能出于救星崇拜情结,对民主党有先入为主的偏见,因而乐得相信各种抹黑谣言,然后和三类川粉一样对毁灭美国“灯塔”的“邪恶力量”咬牙切齿……由于三类川粉“中毒”最深也最有诱惑力,可以说是极权主义思维模式的标本,以下重点分析他们的思维特征。尽管他们常常高调反对极权主义,一个主义、一个组织、一个领袖的极权崇拜情结在他们身上以极其自信的方式展露无疑。
    三、中国“自由派”的认知障碍

我在另一篇文章中曾提到,自由派内部分歧主要是因为认知而非根本价值观差异所致,因而并非和极左的价值观差异那样不可弥合。[7] 然而,认知模式同样是一个不可忽视的问题;事实上,价值观是建立在对基本事实的认知基础上,错误的事实认知会直接推导出错误的价值判断。支持川普的部分中国自由派不只是误判了大选事实细节,而且发生了长期在极权体制影响下形成的认知障碍,以至在背离常识的判断中越陷越深、不可自拔。

极权主义认知障碍体现了极权思维的三个特征。第一,价值观上的教条主义——认定一种意识形态、政策偏好或宗教倾向为绝对正确的“天条”,任何与之相左的思想立场都是“通往奴役之路”的异端邪说。1949年以来,中国走上了左翼极权的不归路,“文革”等各种极左运动为害惨烈;但是在反“左”的过程中,“右”似乎又变成了一种新的绝对正确。随着哈耶克学说被翻译引进、基督教信仰的有限兴起、川普—彭斯在福音派支持下当选,加上原有的歧视弱势族群、反对福利社会大政府体制、反对“一人一票”等右翼思维,种族歧视、性别歧视、政教不分、反平等、反民主等中世纪的落后观念贴上一个“保守主义”标签,摇身一变反而成了新的“宇宙真理”。

第二,人性二元论和阶级善恶观。既然存在一种“正确”思想,即必然存在掌握正确思想的“先进”阶级或党派,以及误入歧途并坚持错误思想的“落后”阶级或党派。宪政民主体制下正常的政治利益斗争被认知为正确和错误、真理与谬误、先进与落后、正义与邪恶之争,党派之间也势不两立、形同水火,不是正义的右消灭左,就是邪恶的左压倒右,没有中间道路。为了国家的“自由”、“人民”的利益,千万不能让邪恶势力上台,否则必然万劫不复。

第三,领袖崇拜和自以为是。既然一个政党持有“真理”或“先进”理念,那么这个政党的领袖也是不容置疑的,任何批评领袖的言论都是邪恶势力制造的谎言。反之,攻击邪恶势力的言论则被不假思索地推定是真实的,无论其是否得到主流媒体的证实;如果主流媒体拒绝报道的话,只能说明它们被收买或“渗透”了。在这场和价值观搅在一起的事实之争中,患有极权主义认知障碍的人自然相信自己就站在正确的一方,而自己愿意相信的就是“真相”或“事实”。

近百年前,极权主义认知障碍突出体现在中国左翼知识分子身上,造成了后来的致命选择。可悲而讽刺的是,百年之后,同样性质的认知障碍体现在不少右翼知识分子身上;他们无视前车之鉴,以为以前左派走错了路,所以“右”就是绝对正确。国内没有两党之争,就把自己根深蒂固的教条主义认知模式投射到美国大选;代表“先进”的共产党现在变成了共和党,“伟大领袖”变成了“天选之子”川普,而这一切竟然都发生在信息渠道极大丰富的今天。他们反对极权体制,却毫不吝啬对“天降伟人”的个人崇拜;他们反对一党专政,却主张在美国实行实际上的共和党一党统治;他们反对中国的官方意识形态,却吹嘘自己掌握一贯正确的“真理”,只是把无神论换成有神论、把共产主义换成“保守主义”。他们带着巨大的价值“自信”,可以为了一个人而拒绝相信美国的一切——主流媒体的舆论、千万选民的投票、各州认证的选举结果,甚至无视总统律师团队在各级法院的数十场败诉,却唯独坚信微信圈疯传的自己喜闻乐见的各种小道消息就是“真相”。

他们平时在微信群里发表的言论到处洋溢着满满的价值和信仰“自信”,这样的言论真可谓“罄竹难书”。1月6日前后,一度与“贺卫方们”商榷的女网红发了一篇评论:“以上帝的名义,我拒绝老败当选”,听上去自己俨然是上帝使者。他们坚信自己信仰的就是正义,和自己对立的就是邪恶;他们所见的就是“事实”,不接受这些“事实”就是装瞎。实际上,有的川粉连“事实”的定义和逻辑层次都没有弄清。一幅广为流传的微信图片上画着套在萨达姆头上的绞索,上面印着几行文字:这个独裁者曾经获得过100%的选票,可见选票不重要,“民心”才重要——言下之意,发帖人自己显然比美国上亿张选票更知道美国人的“民心”是什么。

事实上,川粉们确实没有必要那么纠结于大选。既然总统是“天选之子”,多数选民的选择其实是无关紧要的,因为“人民”也会犯错,即便一场没有舞弊的选举也完全可能选出一个腐败分子来。如果说整体主义“人民”观是通往左翼极权之路,那么近年来颇为得势的“保守主义”则坚持有神论、天选论,以反对“多数人暴政”的名义否定个体意义的人民和“一人一票”。在他们的人性认知中,至少一部分人民是不行的;他们或者是对邪恶(如极左)理念的危害浑然无知,或者是特别易于受到蝇头小利的诱惑而放弃自由,或者就是简单的好吃懒做、甘为被国家圈养的食色奴隶……总之,在普遍趋利避害的人性面前,只有某个“拒腐蚀、永不沾”、大公无私、不领工资、“全心全意为人民”的“天降伟人”才能救民于水火。“保守主义”的结论注定是,多数主义民主是一场人类“致命自负”的灾难;“天选之子”的神教统治才是正道,而贪婪、愚昧、短视的大多数完全可能用合法选票将其拒之白宫门外。有了上帝“启示”的指引,谁还在乎那几张选票呢?
    四、回归宪政民主的基本逻辑:社会契约与人格平等

极权主义认知障碍与宪政民主的基本逻辑背道而驰,难怪某些所谓自由派不信任、不尊重民主程序所产生的正常结果。宪政民主的逻辑起点是人性一元论,社会契约只能建立在人格平等、相互尊重的集体认知基础上。简言之,人在道德和智识上是大体差不多的,因而他们的人格是平等的。美国宪法之所以起点高远,并不是因为立宪者伟大,而恰恰是在于他们明确否认任何一个人、一个阶级、一个党派的“伟大”。回到《联邦党文集》第十篇,它奠基了美国的政治多元主义(political pluralism)。在这篇经典文献中,麦迪逊将社会分为一个个各自抱团的“派系”(factions)——并无贬义,但也绝非溢美之词。在政治多元主义世界观里,不存在高尚的圣徒,不存在为了某个高尚目标献身的“无产阶级”,也不存在某个成天阴谋害人的“邪教”或专想赚人便宜的恶党。派系是基本平等的,无所谓高低、优劣、“正邪”之分;无论是宗教的还是世俗的、白人还是黑人、穷人还是富人、民主党还是共和党,他们在各自的疆域内都有合法活动的自由——也就是通过和平手段争取选票的自由;一旦超越了这个疆域,尤其是诉诸暴力和强迫,那么无论多么自命不凡的派系都没有合法自由。

事实上,美国立宪者自己显然是有局限性的,譬如他们中的多数人当时都认可了蓄奴制,甚至自己就拥有多名黑奴。但是他们至少都接受了麦迪逊所描绘的政治多元主义,一方面承认每个派系都有平等的合法活动自由,另一方面也承认每个派系的活动自由都要受到宪法和法律限制。麦迪逊的《联邦党文集》第51篇将这个逻辑表达到极致:

假如人都是神,那么政府就没有必要存在了;假如能够以神来统治人,那么无论外部或内部的政府制约也就没有必要存在了。要形成一个以人管理人的政府,最大的困难在于:你首先必须使政府能够控制被统治者,其次必须迫使政府控制自己。[8]

这段话的潜台词是,我们谁都别装神弄鬼,以为自己或自己的崇拜者有高人一等的道德和智慧。正因为我们的人格是平等的,所以我们才要坐下来谈而不是打,任何一党一派都没有权利把自己的立场以暴力的方式强加到别人头上。尽管美国立宪者未必把“社会契约”挂在嘴上,但是通过否定人格和阶级歧视,他们实际上接受了社会契约的基本前提——人格平等。假如我在某种意义上比你优越,那么你乖乖接受我的领导就对了,我们之间还有什么“契约”可谈的?在先进和落后、正义和邪恶、高贵和卑鄙之间,有任何谈判的可能吗?

正是因为我们都差不多正义、差不多邪恶,所以才会为了各自的利益而斗争,所以我们才能够也才需要坐下来谈判并形成利益斗争的基本规则。在这个意义上,美国立宪者并不否认“阶级”(派系)斗争,但是他们明确否认任何阶级比其它阶级更“先进”,以至应当“领导”其它阶级。《联邦党文集》第十篇相信,哪里有自由,哪里就有斗争;派系斗争是不可避免的,不守底线的派系斗争则是有害的。联邦立宪就是要让宪法体现第一修正案等契约原则,为民主政治的多数主义游戏规则设置底线,让平等派系之间的“阶级斗争”永远和平进行下去;哪天这种斗争停止了,宪法里出现了“领导阶级”甚至这个阶级的“专政”,那么自由即荡然无存。

如果你不认同这个基本逻辑,而是认定某些人在某种意义上比其他人更“好”,因而天生是领袖或“领导阶级”,那么你就是来搞无底线“阶级斗争”的,因为你已否定了人格平等和社会契约的可能性。既已认定这个领袖或阶级具有天然的统治正当性,如果这个人或集团未能统治,那一定是某种阴谋或舞弊造成的,你也一定不会认赌服输、善罢甘休。如果你的终极信仰是某个“天选之子”或“先进”阶级或绝对正确的政策偏好(如反对福利制度“养懒汉”),那么你一定不会信服建立在人格平等基础上的“一人一票”产生的政治结果,并会倾向于不择手段实现你认为“正确”的统治,不论是以什么名义——神的意志、“保守主义”、无产阶级的“先进性”、历史发展的“必然规律”……事实上,左右已不重要,因为极左和极右的思维方式惊人一致。

川普在中国大陆(或美国一代移民中)的支持者之所以不接受败选结果,除了不愿服输的人之常情之外,很大程度上是因为内心深处已把自己神圣化、把对方妖魔化:川普是高贵的,“败等”是猥琐的;共和党是讲原则的,民主党则为了选票不择手段……这种思维很接近孙中山形象总结的极权“三合一”:一个领袖(大公无私、一贯正确的“天降伟人”)、一个政党(共和党光明磊落、民主党黑暗邪恶)、一个主义(低税、低福利、反同性恋等宗教信念或“保守主义”),为了一个自以为绝对正确的立场(右)无条件支持某个党派乃至领袖,进而彻底无视宪政规则并作出种种违背常识(譬如在成熟的民主国家很难发生大规模选举舞弊)、常理(譬如美国大媒体是基本可靠的,不靠谱的恰恰是基于政治立场和利益的小媒体或个人自媒体)的判断。

这种思维方式其实也不难理解,它正是常年极权主义教育或“反教育”的结果。历史上,中国从来没有社会契约思维,儒、法、墨等主流思想流派具有明显的集权乃至极权主义倾向;近年来流行的“保守主义”不时泛起政教不分、反人格平等、反“一人一票”沉渣,虽常以基督教原教旨主义名目出现,实际上和儒家教条主义与等级秩序似曾相似。数十年极权洗脑更是强化了“好人”—“坏人”、“朋友”—“敌人”、“救星”—“恶魔”的黑白二分思维模式。当这种极权土壤生成的思维模式被用到一个基本正常的自由民主社会,就产生了此次大选映射出来看似不可理喻的独特川粉现象。

我在“中西左右”一文中曾提到极权体制的“逆向洗脑”,即便极权体制的反抗者也会染上非黑即白、唯我独尊的极权思维习惯,对川普的无条件支持其实映射了自己不会犯错、一贯正确的自我认知模式。这样也使他们容易在没有确凿证据的情况就偏信拜登家族腐败、川普团队接连不断发现“惊天阴谋”、投票软件存在系统性漏洞、“左媒”已全体沦陷等违背常识的“事实”……逻辑上,当然任何事情都可能发生,但是你至少要拿得出经过核实的证据,而要核实以上信息并不难——只要谷歌搜索一下,很快会发现几乎所有这类消息都是假的。当然,你也可以说,谷歌和脸书、推特一样,都被“收买”、“渗透”了。[9] 假如这样的话,美国岂不是比中国还可怕!中国只有政府压制言论,美国则所有私人大媒体和社交平台联合起来口径一致欺骗你!这可能吗?如果你真这么想,我只能说你是以自己的极权主义认知想象美国。

归根结底,部分中国自由派的认知障碍是极权体制下养成的自大和无知造成的,真可谓“一叶障目”。讽刺的是,哈耶克的许多右派粉丝经常嘲笑别人“致命的自负”,其实他们自己往往是很自负的。他们需要放下自己,学学美国宪政的ABC,看看美国民主政治是怎么运作的:《纽约时报》发表一篇报道或评论需要经过哪几关?各州如何登记选民、发选票,又是如何收集和记点选票?在法院指控选举舞弊需要提供哪些证据?……中国因为什么都没有,所以需要向美国等成熟民主国家学习的地方太多太多了,而如果我们保持自负无知的话,必然不惜以自己熟悉的黑暗去揣度相当透明的美国大选。这样下去,到头来还是对宪政民主的常规运作一无所知,而到中国大选到来的那一天,也依然带着唯我独尊、党同伐异的思维习惯,为了实现自己的“正确”目的可以不择手段,目的没有实现就要满大街造谣、闹事——这样,即便中国获得了民主转型的机会,我们的民主也只能至多是拉美、非洲、泰国那个水平,而当国民厌倦了民主滋生的各种乱象之后,会像民国初年那样再次放弃民主、选择极权。

我们学习美国,首先要接受人格平等的立约和立宪逻辑,尊重和自己意见不同的人。政治竞争固然是一种斗争,但是宪政民主的竞争是有底线的,我们自己就需要接受这种底线。只要没有确凿证据表明选举存在系统性舞弊,那么无论谁当选,我们都应当接受选举结果的合法性,而不是继续带着先入为主的“有色眼镜”信谣传谣。对于我们并不熟悉的美国,我们尤其要尊重美国人自己的判断,信任美国的言论与新闻自由、选举和司法过程的基本完整,而不要显得我们似乎比他们更知道该选谁做总统。假如有一个美国人基本不懂中文、没有在中国生活的经历、只是从一些花边新闻对中国略知一二,却总是要告诉你中国怎么回事,会不会让人觉得很可笑?正确认知的起点首先是最基本的自知——大致知道自己知道什么、不知道什么,自己在哪些事情上判断大致可靠,而在哪些事情上要依赖别人的判断,至少不能替别人去判断自己云里雾里的事情。如果我们仍然停留于自己无所不知、一贯正确的极权认知模式,那么中国注定是跳不出极权体制这个圈子的。

如胡适所说,自由的前提是宽容,而宽容的基础是承认人格平等,而非将任何人神化或妖魔化。自由主义意味着左和右都是可以接受的选项,而非一个绝对正确、另一个绝对邪恶。当然,你可以支持右,甚至继续支持川普执政时期的内(低税)外(孤立主义)政策,但是如果你还想用“自由派”这个名号的话,那就不可以继续认同他对美国宪政体制的破坏,或继续陶醉在各种未经核实的假消息,为了支持他一个人而拒绝信任美国的新闻体制、选举民主、行政中立与司法独立。本质上,这是反宪政的极权主义个人崇拜。即便他是中国宪政民主的“救星”,我们也不能寄希望于一个独裁者来反独裁,因为那样即便成功,我们迎来的也将是换了个名号的另一场独裁。
    五、中国自由派的自我救赎

至少从去年12月14日各州选举人投票之后,川普败选已是铁板钉钉。既然在数十场诉讼中,各级法院没有发现任何系统性舞弊、各州官员相继确认胜选人之后,自由派即应承认此次大选的合法性以及美国的新闻自由和司法独立,而不要继续一厢情愿地坚信中国式阴谋论,更不能认可在任总统为谋求连任而采取各种违背宪法规则或惯例的行动;否则,中国“自由派”确实只能打上引号。胜败乃选举常事,也是宪政民主的常态。选举好比“押宝”,宝押错了很正常;这次押错了,认输就完事了,四年后可以再押共和党候选人。然而,如果为了某个自己认定(很可能是认错了的)“天降伟人”而拒绝认赌服输,不惜违背宪政民主逻辑和自己在一个契约共同体应当作出的承诺,那就彻底输了。

遗憾的是,众多中文自媒体不仅没有停止造谣,反而在QAnon阴谋论者等发布的英文假消息基础上,添油加醋编造各种“翻盘”的“好消息”,而许多自由派不愿意接受败选结果,继续乐此不疲地荡漾在阴谋论中,个个都自信满满、正义感爆棚,一副真理非我莫属的样子。按照这个架势,如果中国今后有朝一日举行美国这样的总统大选,任何一方失败都会指责对方大规模“舞弊”,即便走完了体制内一切程序都依旧不服,因为只要自己不赢,任何体制都是玩弄幕后阴谋的“深层国家”,那么每一次大选都将是一次内战,最后还是靠枪杆子解决问题。这真的是中国自由派想要的吗?美国大选已经铁板钉钉,连川普本人也都接受了败选事实,众多川粉没有必要因为面子下不来而选择继续活在阴谋论中。他们应该认真反思自己的问题,去除自己的认知障碍——如果可能的话,最好能够公开发表立场声明。

其实,在缺乏宪政民主实践的环境下,自由派存在认知障碍几乎是必然的。中国改革四十多年来,尽管引进了不少西方理论学说,但是思想不能代替实践,新闻自由、“一人一票”这些理念以自己不愿意看到的方式发生在自己的偶像身上,就情不自禁地产生了抵触。更何况近年来公民社会的实践空间日趋狭窄,自由派在国内重压下寻求外援心切,而一个貌似对华强硬的“保守派”总统上台执政,极大促进了“保守主义”在国内的传播,其中某些主张和政教分离、人格平等、“一人一票”等宪政理念发生直接抵触……这些都是可以理解的现象,但是这些现象本身体现出自由派对宪政民主的认知短板甚至障碍。承认认知障碍并没什么“丢脸”的,死不认错才是真正的耻辱。反过来,反川者也不应该把认知模式和立场之争变成羞辱对方的机会,而是应该积极欢迎从前的盟友尽快回到宪政民主的阵营中来。

对于中国宪政民主而言,最重要的不是谁当选美国总统,而是美国依然是宪政民主的“灯塔”。此次大选向我们显示,美国的社会契约发生了严重的破裂,但是它有自我修复的能力;它的言论与新闻自由、选举民主、地方自治、行政中立与司法独立仍基本保持完好,因为多数美国国民仍然信奉这些政治自然法则,并依靠它们约束了试图破坏这些法则的独裁总统。[10] 中国宪政归根结底是中国人自己的事情,而这件事情只有在相当多数的中国人接受了社会契约之后才有可能。美国大选是一面镜子,照出了我们的认知差距。自由派需要弥合这个差距,接受人格平等和社会契约,才能重返中国宪政民主的阵营。

面对这次大选暴露出来的认知障碍,我们可以有两种态度:一种是既然“第二天”不好玩,索性“第一天”也不要了,至少不急着要;另一种是赶紧补课,争取在“第二天”到来之前克服自己的认知障碍。我希望,我们都能采取第二种态度。我们应当庆幸,这次是美国(而非今后中国)大选暴露出这些问题,或有助于防患未然。在这个意义上,我们要感谢美国,在自己契约破裂、岌岌可危的情况下利用现有的制度资源,不仅有惊无险、转危为安,而且给我们上了生动一课。但能否从中汲取经验教训,要看我们自己的造化了。

对于中国自由派,美国大选是一次撕裂,但也可以是一次启蒙。我们一直以为自己在抵抗一个魔鬼,却没有看到它也在我们自己心中;要反外部的魔鬼,首先要去掉自己的心魔。如果自由派不能反思自己并革除极权体制遗留下来的认知障碍,那么这次大选就只是一次撕裂;今后随着类似的国际政治事件发生,这种撕裂还会继续不断进行下去。


[2] 《纽约时报》已经证实,许多这类假消息来自中文媒体《大纪元》,https://cn.nytimes.com/technology/20201027/epoch-times-influence-falun-gong/zh-hant/.

[3] 有趣的是,川粉们一直在渲染大外宣的“渗透”功夫法力无边,执意要把它打扮成“深层国家”大规模“舞弊”的“幕后黑手”。

[4] 参见邓聿文:“中国自由主义群体因美大选分裂”,《德国之声》2020年11月10日。

[5] “败登”、“白等”等戏虐语一直是川粉对拜登的流行称呼。

[6] 参见张千帆:“中西左右:一场跨洋误会”,中国:历史与未来网,2020年10月2日,https://www.chinese-future.org/articles/9bebalsph4dz3eleflcmpcwknf7brn.

[7] 张千帆:“中国自由派的大选阴谋论与美国契约的危机”,《纽约时报》中文网,2020年11月12日,https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20201112/chinese-liberals-social-contract-us-election/zh-hant/.

[8] Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay,The Federalist Papers, Clinton Rossiter (ed.), NAL Penguin (1961), pp. 320-324.

[9] 1月12日,推特对川普永久封号加深了这样的猜测。https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2021/01/08/twitter-permanently-bans-president-trump/6603578002/.

[10] 参见张千帆:“美国契约的破裂与重建”,FT中文网,2020年12月1日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001090425?adchannelID=&full=y.

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24816

温家宝:我的母親

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作者:温家宝  来源:澳门日报

媽媽走了。她離開了我們,離開了人間,回到生養她那片土地上。

""

媽媽還在,她永遠活在我們心中,活在她深深愛著的學生們中,活在她眷戀的鄉親們中。

媽媽名叫楊志雲(曾用名楊秀安),1921 年農曆 11月 14 日生於天津北郊宜興埠。父親楊鳳翔(作者的姥爺,編者注),是名村醫,靠開個小藥鋪維持生計;母親楊馬氏(作者的姥姥,編者注),家庭婦女,不識字。

媽媽可能是姥爺、姥姥領養的孩子,人們都這麼說,可媽媽至今不肯講。姥爺、姥姥待她像親閨女一樣,誰也不願再提這段往事。

""


20世紀90年代,作者的父母在北京西城區文津街舊宅合影

媽媽生在苦難的時間和苦難的地方。

宜興埠是津北重鎮,自古是由津門去寶坻和冀東的必經之路,這一地理位置使它成為攻守天津的軍事要地。

近代以來,由於內憂外患、戰亂不斷,宜興埠長期處於災難之中。媽媽童年時,家鄉已是窮苦不堪、民不聊生的鄉村。村子裡是土道、土房、土炕,莊稼畝產不足百斤。

人們多從事蕎麥皮、麻杆、秫秸、香草等買賣,艱難度日。

一首民謠道出了當時的情景:

住土房、睡土炕,男人外經商、家中無米湯,孩兒哭叫餓、女人淚汪汪,麻杆換來玉米麵,糊弄肚皮度饑荒。

1936 年,姥爺因病去世,年僅 45 歲。藥鋪靠姥姥一人經營。姥姥請了山東兩個姓趙的夥計,幫助料理藥鋪。除開藥鋪外,還租了“聾十爺”(姓楊的一戶地主)的 10畝地。

那年 10 月,日本侵略軍在天津郊區進行了奪取平津的“假想敵”式的大規模演習。六七千名日軍從宜興埠外西北到東南,形成半月狀弧形包圍圈,槍聲、炮聲大作,許多莊稼和農田被毀。老百姓不敢出門,莊稼不能收割,生意不能做,生活困苦,衣食無著。

1937 年 4 月 22 日,日本侵略軍全面侵佔華北的戰爭迫在眉睫,決定修建臨時飛機場,為向天津空運兵員和物資做準備。地址選在宜興埠村東南。當時許多農田被毀,許多農民被抓去幹活,使宜興埠又一次受到損害。“七•七”盧溝橋事變,標誌著艱苦卓絕的八年抗戰的開始。

1937 年 2 月至 1938 年 1 月,父親在宜興埠士范小學任教。這期間,父親和母親戀愛結婚。1938 年 4 月,父親考入國立北京師範學院(後改為北京師範大學)文科史地組(後改為史地系)。那一年媽媽生了第一個兒子,爺爺給他起名光華(光復中華之意),不幸僅活了一歲,因患肺炎而夭折。

1942 年 9 月 15 日(農曆八月初六),媽媽在國難中又生下了我。爺爺心疼,給我起名“家寶”。那一年,日寇在華北大掃蕩,津北一帶也成了他們“清鄉”和實行“三光”政策的地方。

10 月的一天,一股日寇進入宜興埠,將全村老小集中村西南廣場,四周架起機槍對著村民,威逼交出八路軍。媽媽抱著剛出滿月的我擠在人群中,驚恐萬分。鬼子吼叫著,揚言不交人就開槍。場院一片寂靜,媽媽怕我哭鬧,把我緊緊抱在懷裡。

在兵荒馬亂中,藥鋪開得不安寧。偽軍、國軍常來騷擾。一天下午,媽媽正在屋裡靠著窗戶的地方用木盆洗衣服,一隻狗臥在外面窗下,媽媽並未看見。突然來了一群偽軍,開槍把狗打死。媽媽埋頭洗衣服,沒看見外面發生的一切,槍聲把她驚呆了,放下衣服,半天說不出話來。我被嚇壞了,緊緊抱住媽媽,躲在她背後。這時,只聽到外邊一片狂笑聲。

1948 年 12 月,平津戰役進入第二階段,解放軍攻打天津。國民黨守軍為了空室清野,掃清射界,下令放火燒毀了津北 70 多個村莊的農舍,致使 14 萬村民毀屋喪家。宜興埠被燒民房 200 多間。爺爺全家住在西下坡,房子全部被燒為灰燼,1926 年辦的士范小學也被燒得蕩然無存。姥姥家和她的小藥鋪沒有倖免。

已是年過半百的姥姥隨村民倉惶逃難,在路上把隨身帶的一點積蓄全部丟失。看著經營多年的小藥鋪沒了,家沒了,又身無半文,今後的日子怎麼過?她悲痛欲絕,痛苦多日,自此一病不起,於1949 年逝世,終年 51 歲。

那些日子裡,媽媽要服侍姥姥,又要照顧我,還要處理小藥鋪的後事。我看得出來,她的心情很沉重、很難過。

媽媽好強、自立、向上。

解放前,為了苦苦支撐起這個家,媽媽到處找工作,先後在宜興埠士范小學、天津縣七區中心校任教。她深知每份工作都來之不易,因而十分珍惜。抗戰勝利前後(1944年 7 月至 1946 年 7 月),她曾在天津“馬大夫醫院”護士學校學習,後因我無人照管而辭職。

媽媽上學不多,為了找工作,曾上過師範專科學校培訓班、簿記夜校。三十多歲的人,又要操持家務、管教孩子,又要上課、寫作業。1954 年,她忍痛離家,和一群年輕人赴甘肅支教。在天水伏羲小學當一名教師,一去就是大半年。那一年我才 12 歲,剛上初中。爸爸上班,無暇照顧我,晚上還要和爸爸一起做飯。就在那時,我學會了蒸窩頭、熬稀飯。三歲的妹妹寄養在五姑奶奶家。

媽媽 1959 年到東門裡小學擔任語文教師兼班主任。她年輕時讀書多,語文基礎堅實。她的學生于亞回憶:

我們語文課一直由楊老師教。同學們很喜歡上她的課,從拼音識字開始,到讀書作文,每堂課都講得清清楚楚。朗讀課真的把人帶入課文中,幾遍下來基本上就能背誦了。她腹有詩書,最愛講故事,讓同學們懂得做人的道理。

學生孫秀庭回憶:

楊老師為我們打下的基礎異常嚴格、扎實。記得老師有一根教鞭,至今它點在黑板上的“噠噠”聲有力地迴響在我耳邊。往深處理解,老師在教授知識的同時,潛移默化地給我們灌輸做人的道理,處事的準則,漸漸地,我們班具備了一種班風:它是被學習的風氣引導的、自覺自律的、注重道德品質的。

于亞問:我們身上是不是都具有一種為一個信念獻身的精神?

我說有,會為某種崇高美而感動。如果為一個正義的事業去戰鬥,即使獻身也在所不惜——即便到了這個年齡仍然是這樣。孫秀庭答。

媽媽到了九十多歲高齡,她的學生仍然惦念她。他們在事業上有成就了,但他們在一起的時候還經常提到楊老師:

我們的楊老師到了人生九十多的高齡,我們仍然是有老師在的孩子,這是我們人生一大幸事。如今已年近古稀的學生們這樣回憶老師。

""

媽媽是個極富同情心的善良人。

媽媽同情窮人。

宜興埠廟前鄰居韓家是貧農,孩子多,生活困難,偏偏全家都患上肺結核。媽媽從年輕時就和他們家是朋友。解放後,韓家只有一對姊弟(韓玉琴、韓富奎)在天津。媽媽在自家生活窘迫的情況下,照顧這對孤兒,直到姐姐在國棉七廠找到工作,弟弟在天津 35 中畢業,當上體育教師。韓富奎在 35 中上學時無處可住,媽媽讓他住在自己家中,九平方米的小屋本來擁擠不堪,又添了個大小夥子。

我家居住的西門裡大街達摩庵前胡同,是社會底層市民生活的地方,他們都靠勞動和經營而生活,收入低微,勉強度日。隨著時間的變化,這裡的房屋愈來愈破舊,道路愈來愈泥濘,胡同越來越混亂,居民越來越擁擠。

剛搬來時,胡同裡來了一戶讀書人家,人們相待都很客氣。稱父親“溫先生”、母親“楊老師”。父母親為人老實,待人謙和,與每家相處得都很好。

房東劉奶奶,孤身一人,無親人照顧,靠租賃院裡兩間房子和一點積蓄為生。我家租住院裡靠外的一間北房,住了四十多年。媽媽對老人很好,房租雖貴些,但一直按時付款,還時常給老人送點東西。院落、茅廁、廚房收拾得利利索索。“文革”期間,我家被“疏散”到農村;“文革”後又回到這裡,直到街區拆遷才搬家。

胡同鄰里許多人家都是媽媽的朋友。他們當中有蹬三輪車的、開拔絲作坊的,開醬園的,還有孤兒寡母。父母與他們交往不深,但彼此相處是熱情真誠的,有時還互相幫助。這裡沒有職業和文化的隔閡,沒有虛情假意。多年來,父母沒有與一戶人家鬧過不和。這種關係一直持續到那個“史無前例”的年代。當家裡受難時,街坊悄悄同情我們,在晚上沒人的時候撕去胡同裡給爸爸貼的大字報,沒有一戶落井下石的。

記得,那時家裡飯菜很簡單,每頓飯一般只有一個菜,很少吃肉。有時讓我到肉鋪買上兩毛錢肉,還要說明要肥瘦,這就是改善伙食了。遇到年節喜慶之日,家裡吃頓“撈面”,媽媽總是端著滿滿一碗麵條,放好炸醬和菜碼,給鄰居一家家送去。這是媽媽對鄰里的心意,也是她待人的熱忱。

附:

深切懷念尊敬的奶奶

呂國平 

(二零二零年十二月)

忽聞奶奶啟西行,

泣不成聲夢更驚。

奶奶音容笑貌在,

我喚奶奶語輕輕。

亂局亂時半世紀,

度荒度災幾磨難。

宅心仁厚彰慈善,

援手義勇師聖賢 !

精勤治學更求真,

言教身傳誨語諄。

督導兒孫盡使命,

親民愛國最堅貞 !

備茶談笑情關切,

把手送迎憐愛悠。

喚我小呂卅五載,

我思奶奶一千秋 !

(作者自1985年開始與奶奶相識,一直得到奶奶深情關懷)

媽媽一生簡樸,活得清白。

解放後,1950 年,爸爸、媽媽和我搬到天津,租住只有幾平方米的一間小屋,可謂家徒四壁,身無分文。爸爸的工資每月僅 37 元,可光房租就要 8 元(一袋麵粉錢)。這間小屋伴我們全家幾十年,其間家裡又添了妹妹和弟弟。媽媽省吃儉用,我們的衣服都是補了又補。就是這樣,工資上月接不到下月,每月還要借點錢。那時,爸爸有個小本子,專門記帳用的。

我從小就知道生活的艱辛,簡樸的生活習慣貫穿一生。

記得上初中的時候,有一次媽媽給我做了雙新布鞋。那天,我高興地穿上新鞋上學,不巧下學時正趕上大雨。我到家時,媽媽冒雨倚門等候,遠遠望著我光著兩腳走路,手裡抱著那雙新布鞋。她趕忙跑到我跟前,一把把我摟在懷裡。在雨中,我望著媽媽,她流淚了,滿臉是淚水和雨水。

人窮志不短,媽媽嚴格要求自己,同時也嚴格要求自己的孩子。記得天津剛剛解放,城裡無安身之地,家鄉房子已毀,爸爸、媽媽帶著我回到宜興埠,暫借一遠房親戚的一間房子住,我在爺爺租用村中楊家下場倉庫作校舍的士范小學繼續上學。

一天,我在街上撿了一分錢放在衣兜裡,被媽媽發現了。她邊打邊問錢是哪兒來的,竟把一個掃帚打散了。從那時,我就懂得一個道理,不是自己的錢一分不能要。這個道理我記在心裡幾十年,一次都沒違反過。

妹妹比我小 9 歲,她上幼稚園經常是我接送的。一次下學回家,她帶回了一個布娃娃。媽媽追問她是從哪兒拿來的,她只是哭,硬是說不清楚。媽媽讓我帶著妹妹立刻把娃娃送回園裡。到幼稚園才弄清楚是園裡給每個孩子發的。

媽媽脾氣不好,對孩子從不溺愛,十分嚴厲。現在回想起來,媽媽在我小時候對我的教誨,讓我終生受益。

媽媽是把這樣的事情作為道德的根本,嚴格要求全家。天津剛解放那年,爸爸考入華北人民革命大學,畢業後曾在天津市工商局工作一段時間。當時,正值私營工商企業改造時期,爸爸的工作需要同私營工商企業者打交道。媽媽非常警覺,經常囑咐爸爸千萬不能收人家任何錢和物。爸爸非常老實,從不沾惹是非,更不拿人一分錢,結果,在以後的“三反五反”運動中,自身乾乾淨淨。

媽媽一生結交的都是同事、鄰居、普通百姓,從未高攀過一個當官的。1978 年在農村待了近 10 年才得以落實政策,回到原來的家——達摩庵前胡同那間狹小破爛的小屋,在這裡一住又是 15 年。1985 年我調入中央,媽媽從未因我的升遷向組織提過任何要求,更沒有打我的旗號給家裡辦過任何事情。媽媽和爸爸一生從事神聖的教育事業,全靠微薄的工資度日,死後沒有留下任何財產和積蓄。

媽媽堅強而有主見。

從我記事時起,就看到家裡的大小事情都得她操心、拿主意。爸爸一生艱辛、坎坷。他經歷新舊兩個社會,在滄桑世事中,安分守己,只希望活得太平,但終於也沒有逃脫政治的漩渦。1959 年“審幹”期間,因“歷史問題”,他離開了多年的教師崗位,被“限制使用”。開始在農場勞動,後來到校圖書館工作。那些年,家裡仿佛出了大事情,媽媽憂心忡忡,又要勸解爸爸,又要照料全家。

“文化大革命”的災難落在我們家中。爸爸被揪鬥,關在學校監視居住,停發工資。大字報從家門貼到胡同。媽媽從自己不多的工資中,先給爸爸留足伙食費,自己親自送到學校。她不放心這點錢能否送到爸爸手中,非讓造反派給收條為據。1970 年,全家又被強制疏散到農村。先是要全家到內蒙古五原(妹妹當時在通遼下鄉),當時父母已年過半百,實難帶幼子適應那裡的環境。經反復交涉、多方聯繫,後改遷到天津市北郊區小澱公社勞動,一待就是六年。粉碎“四人幫”後,爸爸調到天津北郊區宜興埠九十六中學做教員。

1978 年 11 月 5 日,天津市河北區教育局作出關於父親政治歷史問題的覆議意見,認為“文革”期間的審查,“未發現新問題”。1979 年 6 月 26 日,天津市河北區教育局又撤銷 1958 年作出的《關於對溫剛限制使用的意見》。1982 年辦理退休手續,1986 年改為離休。

父親能忍,但有個性。我剛滿周歲時,正趕上日寇清鄉、掃蕩,行人過道卡,均要嚴格盤查,不准帶一粒大米。有一次,媽媽因奶水不夠,讓父親買點米帶回家。天黑了,爸爸懷揣一包大米過路卡,日寇持槍盤查,非要搜身不可,父親寧死不依,差點被刺刀挑死。

“文革”期間,父親被關在學校,經常遭受野蠻的“審訊”和打罵。一天,造反派一拳將父親的臉打腫,眼睛被“封”得看不見東西。父親忍無可忍,指著心口說:“小子,朝這兒打!”

他雖然有些倔強,但常念及全家老小,能忍非常人所能忍的苦痛,變得更加少言寡語。沒事時,經常抄寫古詩詞或報刊中有意思的文章,以解惆悵之情。

媽媽最理解他,仿佛只有她能窺見他內心那些難以言表的思想和感情。她從不埋怨父親,反而總是寬慰和體貼他。他們相濡以沫七十五載。

父親沒有留下什麼,他把艱辛、苦痛和摯愛都帶走了,走得那麼安詳,仿佛這個世界就給他這條路。

媽媽教我做人。

媽媽愛讀古書,經常給我講岳飛、文天祥、諸葛亮等歷史人物的故事,也講我熟悉的長輩往事。她做家務時,我常纏在她身邊,她邊做活邊給我講故事。媽媽常說,人要努力、向上。她總是把做人、志向、責任同刻苦、認真結合起來,使我深切懂得人不僅要有作為,首先要學會做人。媽媽這些話深深觸動了我的心。我常邊聽邊落淚,下決心為國家和人民而努力學習,做一個有氣節、有學識、有本領的人。每每憶起媽媽說話的神情和至今難以忘卻的話語,我從心中油然萌發一種崇敬和感激之情。

對於我擔當大任,媽媽是憂慮的。我手中一直保存母親的兩封信。一封信寫在 2003 年 11 月,我剛擔任第一屆總理的時候;一封寫在 2007 年 10 月,我即將擔任第二屆總理的時候。

第一封信寫道,“你今天能位居人臣,如此高的地位,沒有任何靠山,家裡更不用說了,得來多麼不易。你的性格是力求完美,但國家這麼大,人口這麼多,很難做到完美。”她要求我做到“要上通、要人和,千萬記住孤樹難成林。”

第二封信寫道,“過去五年的成就是你用心血換來的,來之不易。後五年的工作是艱難複雜的,繼續保持,談何容易。這麼大的國家,這麼多的百姓,經濟又是這麼錯綜複雜,許多事情都要你一一完成,其效果能達到一半,就謝天謝地了。這麼多事,你一個人肩膀有多寬能承受得住?這就需要大家同舟共濟,平平穩穩渡過五年難關。”

媽媽的心在孩子身上,也在國家身上。她每天看新聞,瞭解國內外大事。她從不過問我的工作,但經常用各種方式告訴我群眾的反映,提醒我注意。

2009 年 2 月 2 日,我在英訪問期間,專程到劍橋大學發表演講。那一天,雪下得很大,劍橋禮堂座無虛席。我演講的題目是《用發展的眼光看中國》。我以充滿感情的話語,向師生們介紹中國的過去、現在和未來,演講博得陣陣掌聲。

臨結束時,出現一個“插曲”。一名西方模樣的學生擾亂會場,大喊大叫,並向主席臺扔鞋子。我昂首站立,不為所動,表現出冷靜和鎮定。會場安靜後,我講道:“這種卑鄙的伎倆,是不能破壞中英兩國人民友誼的。”“人類的進步、世界的和諧,是歷史潮流,是任何力量不可阻擋的。”我的話引起會場長時間熱烈的掌聲。

我不知道就在這一刻,坐在電視機前收看電視直播的母親,因擔心兒子和受到刺激,而突患腦血管栓塞,從此視力減退、說話困難、行走不便。那一年母親已 88 歲高齡。

我退休了,在中南海工作了 28 年,其中擔任總理十年。對我這樣出身的人來說,“做官”本是偶然之事。我奉命唯謹,如履薄冰、如臨深淵,受事之始,即常作歸計。

退休之後,回到媽媽身邊,我的心情很高興,但看到她病情一天比一天嚴重,又感到難受。八年來,我很少外出,經常陪伴她。

“誰言寸草心,報得三春暉。”媽媽的愛,媽媽的恩情是無法報答的。她的許多教誨已經滲透到我的細胞中、融入我的血液中。人們之間許多事是可以相互模仿的,甚至是苦心孤詣做作的。但是,唯有真誠、樸實和善良的情感和心靈是做不了假的。只要看他的眼睛,看他的同情心,看他在危難中的勇氣,看他在關係國家前途命運關鍵時刻的擔當精神,就可以窺見他的真實。我同情窮人、同情弱者,反對欺侮和壓迫。我心目中的中國應該是一個充滿公平正義的國家,那裡永遠有對人心、人道和人的本質的尊重,永遠有青春、自由、奮鬥的氣質。我為此呐喊過、奮鬥過。這是生活讓我懂得的真理,也是媽媽給予的。

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24815

The Christian Church as a Civil Society Organization: A Preliminary Survey of Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan

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作者:Zhidong Hao  来源:中美印象

The Christian Church as a Civil Society Organization:
A Preliminary Survey of Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan[1]
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During the period of opening and reform XE "reform"  in mainland China, the role of religion in sociopolitical and economic XE "economic"  development has become increasingly important. It is true that because of sociopolitical constraints, it will take a while for religion on the mainland to catch up with Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan in influence, and different religions in different places also have different influences. But religions in mainland China are generally catching up anyway, albeit slowly in most aspects of their influence, and a study of the similarities and differences in the role of religion in the four regions of Greater China (in its cultural and historical sense) is also more important than ever before.

As part of that effort, this paper compares the Christian Church, both Catholic and Protestant, in the four regions of Greater China to see the extent to which it is a civil society XE "civil society"  organization XE "civil society organization" t "See CSO"  (CSO XE "CSO" t "See Civil Society Organization" ) as well as what roles it plays. In my view, the Christian Church is indeed a CSO XE "CSO" , but because of different sociopolitical situations, the extent to which the Church can play its usual role, and the ways in which this role is played, differs across regions. Understandably, the Church faces many more difficulties in serving as a CSO on the mainland XE "CSO"  than in other places, especially in the Xi Jinping XE "Xi Jinping"  era with frequent crackdowns,[2] and thus is weaker XE "CSO" . All things considered, as a CSO, the Christian Church appears to be the strongest in Hong Kong, XE "CSO"  followed by Taiwan and Macau, with mainland China trailing behind.

I support my view using some indicators from the Civil Society Index XE "Civil Society Index" t "See CSI"  (CSI XE "CSI" ) developed by CIVICUS XE "CIVICUS" , “an international alliance dedicated to strengthening citizen action and civil society XE "civil society"  throughout the world,” with 1,000 members. The index measures the strengths, challenges, potential, and needs of civil society in a country. [3] I use this index to measure the Christian Church in each of the regions or regime types in Greater China.

The CSI XE "CSI"  is designed to work across regime types and therefore is especially useful for our analysis. As I illustrate further below, since 1949 the mainland Chinese state has incorporated a majority of the Christian groups in the form of national religious associations while alienating others, which evolved later into what we now call “underground XE "underground" ” or “house” churches. So, the church-state relationship in mainland China is largely corporatist XE "corporatist"  in nature, with non-official churches repeatedly suppressed. In Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, the Christian churches have largely remained independent, although at one time or another, those in the latter two regions were corporatist to a great extent because of their colonial XE "colonial"  and political legacies. My analysis in this paper reflects these founding moments of the church in each regime type and their continued variations in autonomy XE "autonomy" . Given the spreading influence of the Chinese Communist Party XE "Chinese Communist Party" t "See CCP"  (CCP) in these other places, one wonders whether their autonomy might erode. A CSI analysis will also help us see that trend more clearly.

In terms of methodology XE "methodology" , my research is inherently critical, that is, historical-comparative, because I examine various structural and cultural factors in influencing the Church’s behavior across regions and over time. But I also employ a positivist approach in quoting numbers, especially descriptive statistics XE "statistics" , and the interpretive approach in referring to the churches’ appeals in their protest XE "protest"  movements.

First, I explain the meaning of civil society XE "civil society"  and the CSI XE "CSI" . Then, I examine the strengths and weaknesses of the Christian Church in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan using the four dimensions in the CSI: structure, environment, values, and impact. This is followed by concluding remarks. I hope this analysis will shed light on factors that are increasingly becoming crucial in influencing the Church’s role in civil society as the Church is gaining importance in the sociopolitical and economic XE "economic"  development of Greater China.

Civil Society, the Church as a Civil Society Organization, and the Civil Society Index

Civil society has many different definitions XE "civil society" , but it usually means a space where the state XE "state" , the market XE "market" , and the family intersect, or a third sector other than the state and the market. [4] As Habermas says, its institutional core

is constituted by voluntary unions outside the realm of the state XE "state"  and the economy XE "economy"  and ranging … from churches, cultural associations, and academies to independent media, sport and leisure clubs, debating societies, groups of concerned citizens, and grass-roots petitioning drives all the way to occupational associations, political parties, labor XE "labor"  unions, and “alternative institutions.”[5]

For Habermas and others, faith-based XE "faith-based"  organizations such as churches are important parts of civil society XE "civil society" .[6]

In addition, as Putnam points out, the organizations and individuals involved must also embody characteristics of civic engagement; reciprocal, horizontal, and cooperative relationships with one another; high levels of solidarity XE "solidarity" , trust, and tolerance XE "tolerance" ; and openness to joining or working with different associations, moderating and expanding loyalties and interests.[7] The idea of civil society XE "civil society"  is based on civility XE "civility"  and implies “a change [in the 1970s] in emphasis from material security to concerns about democracy XE "democracy" , participation, and meaning, and involved, among others, a formation towards cosmopolitan values such as tolerance and respect for human rights XE "human rights" .”[8]

The Christian Church is thus not only a part of civil society XE "civil society"  but an important part. In fact, the idea of civil society can be traced to Christian natural law XE "natural law"  speculation and the Scottish Enlightenment in the late seventeenth and early eighteenth century XE "Enlightenment" . In other words, the idea of a society composed of agentic individuals and autonomous social actors as ethical and moral entities is rooted in Christianity, especially Calvinism XE "Calvinism" .[9]

But how well does the Christian Church do as a CSO XE "CSO" ? As mentioned above, in the 2000s CIVICUS XE "CIVICUS"  developed and implemented a CSI XE "CSI"  to measure the state XE "state"  of the civil society in a country.[10] More specifically, the CSI has four dimensions (structure, environment, values and impact), 20 subdimensions, and 70 indicators. Each country can adapt the indicators to fit its own conditions.[11] Because this paper is limited to the Christian Church, I focus on only some of the indicators.

In terms of structure, I focus on the breadth and depth of membership and participation, the levels of organization, communication, and cooperation within and between church organizations. With respect to the environment, I focus on the political and legal environment or the relationship between church and state XE "state" . In terms of values, I examine whether the Church has values such as democracy XE "democracy" , tolerance XE "tolerance" , gender XE "gender"  equity, nonviolence XE "non-violence" , poverty XE "poverty"  alleviation, and environmental XE "environmental"  protection. And regarding the impact, I explore the Church’s role in civic activism XE "activism"  and social services XE "social services" .

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Figure 1. Civil Society Index in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and mainland China

Source: Jia Xijin, “Zhongguo gongmin shehui de xianzhuang yu qianjing中国公民社会的现状与前景 [The Current Status of and Future Prospects for Civil Society XE "civil society"  in China],” a talk delivered at Tianze Shuangzhou Luntan [Biweekly forum of Tianze], February 29, 2008.

In Figure 1, I present the findings of a CIVICUS XE "CIVICUS"  survey of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and mainland China regarding the four dimensions of the CSI XE "CSI"  in each area so that we have an idea of the general picture of each place before we move on to our analysis of the Christian Church in those dimensions. The score for each dimension is from 0 to 3: the lower the number, the weaker the dimension, and civil society XE "civil society"  in general. The values for mainland China (the innermost line) in all the four dimensions are lower than for Hong Kong (the middle line) and Taiwan; Taiwan (the outermost line) has the highest values and therefore the strongest civil society.

Using the same logic and similar dimensions, we can measure the strength of the Christian Church as a CSO XE "CSO" . Based on the literature, we can deduce that the Hong Kong Christian Church is the strongest CSO, unlike as portrayed in Figure 1, followed by Taiwan and Macau, with the church in the mainland the weakest. An imaginary diamond depicting the strength of the Christian Church in Greater China would resemble Figure 1, but Hong Kong would be in the outer line, followed by Taiwan and Macau, and mainland China would be in the innermost line. That is our hypothesis, and we now examine the four dimensions to see how each church scores in those aspects.

Structural Characteristics of the Christian Church

As mentioned above, structure measures the breadth and depth of participation and the levels of organization, communication, and cooperation. In Habermas’s terms, these are voluntary unions that have horizontal and cooperative relationships that CSOs embody, according to Putnam. For this dimension, we examine the number of Christians in each of the four regions of Greater China, their organization, and their communication and cooperation with each other.

According to Liu Peng, the official number of Christians in mainland China in 2010 was 23.05 million.[12] However, a Pew report says that in 2010 China had 67 million Christians, or 5.15 percent of its population (see Table 1).[13] Fenggang Yang predicts that by 2030, China will have 224 million Christians, or 17.2 percent of the population, if the Pew number is correct, given that the number of Christians in China increased from 6 million to 67 million over the past thirty years and that the political, economic XE "economic" , and cultural factors that foster Christian conversion XE "conversion"  are unlikely to change much.[14]

By any account and whichever number we use, the Christian Church in mainland China is undoubtedly the largest organization now other than the CCP XE "CCP" , which has a membership of 90 million. If Fenggang Yang’s prediction comes true, it might even surpass the CCP in the near future. That speaks to the breadth of the organization.

Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan also have sizable numbers of Christians. Table 1 indicates that in terms of the share of Christians in the population, Hong Kong ranks first in Greater China as of 2017 with 12 percent to 23 percent, followed by Taiwan, with 5.0 percent to about 7.0 percent, Macau, with 5.38 percent, and mainland China, with 5.15 percent. These percentages mean numbers from 35,000 in Macau to 576,000 in Taiwan and 854,000 in Hong Kong, although in sheer numbers, they are still dwarfed by the 67 million in mainland China.

""

Sources:

a. Lin Pen Hsuan, “Taiwan de zongjiao xingzheng yu zongjiao lifa wenti台湾的宗教行政与宗教立法问题” [Religious administration and legalization in Taiwan], talk at Beijing Institute of Technology, October 16, 2007, Zongjiao yu fazhi 宗教与法治 [Religion and the Rule of Law] XE "law"  (spring 2015); US CIA Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html#People/, accessed November 21, 2016. The Taiwan government statistics XE "statistics" , however, give a much smaller number: 181,215 Catholics and 396,689 Protestants, with a total of 592,815 or 2.47 percent of the population. See the ROC’s Ministry of the Interior website at http://statis.moi.gov.tw/micst/stmain.jsp?sys=100/, accessed November 24, 2016. A survey by the Protestant Church gives a larger number of 6.95 percent, including children, with Protestants being 5.86 percent of the Taiwan population. See John S.T. Chu and volunteers, ed., “2013 Taiwan jidujiaohui jiaoshi baogao 2013台湾基督教会教势报告 [A Report on the Development of Christian Churches in Taiwan in 2013]” (Taiwan Church Report 2013), 2, http://www.ccea.org.tw/cceaup/church/christianityreport/2013.pdf, accessed November 27, 2016.

b. Hong Kong government website, “Xianggang bianlan: Zongjiao yu fengsu 香港便览:宗教与风俗 [A Brief Introduction to Hong Kong: Religion and Customs],” http://www.gov.hk/tc/about/abouthk/factsheets/docs/religion.pdf, accessed November 24, 2016. The larger number comes from a 2012 survey by the Divinity School of Chung Chi College, which reports that 16 percent of the 1,505 respondents were Protestant and 3.6 percent were Catholic. The numbers in other surveys done for the Hong Kong Transition Project at Hong Kong Baptist University are bit higher: 7 percent Catholics and 16 percent Protestants, or 23 percent altogether. For these numbers, see June Cheng, “How Many Christians Live in Hong Kong,” World Net, https://world.wng.org/2014/10/how_many_christians_live_in_hong_kong/, accessed November 21, 2016.

c. Cited in Yang, “Exceptionalism or Chinamerica, 9.
      d. UCA News, “Jiaozong wei Xianggang jiaoqu renming jiebanren, Yang Mingzhang huo wei wei zhuli zhujiao 教宗为香港教区任命接班人,杨鸣章获委为助理主教 [Pope XE "Pope"  Appoints New Coadjutor Bishop for Hong Kong, and Auxiliary Bishop Michael Yeung Ming-Cheung Will Succeed Cardinal John Tong Hon],” http://china.ucanews.com/2016/11/14/, accessed November 24, 2016.
      e. US State Department [Meiguo guowuyan minzhu renquan he laogong shiwuju 美国国务院民主人权和劳工事务局 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, US State Department], “2014 nian guoji zongjiao ziyou baogao 2014年国际宗教自由报告” [Report on Religious Freedom in the World in 2014], http://www.humanrights.gov/pdf/china-includes-tibet-hongkong-macau-chi-final.pdf, accessed November 24, 2016.

But, of course, numbers do not always translate into power, and the Christian Church certainly cannot compare to the CCP XE "CCP"  in organizational power. For example, there is the division between Catholics and Protestants, between the official church and the unofficial or underground XE "underground"  church among Catholics, and the open churches and the house churches XE "house churches"  among Protestants. There is often bitter and tragic factionalism within the Church.[15] Half of all Christians worship in unregistered churches, XE "unregistered churches"  and they “contend that government-approved churches are tools of the state XE "state" , as sermons are vetted to avoid contentious political and social issues XE "social issues"  and clergy are appointed by the Party rather than by congregants or, in the case of the Catholic Church, the Vatican XE "Vatican" .”[16] The activities of the underground XE "underground" t "See House Church"  and house churches are closely monitored by the public security bureaus XE "public security bureaus"  or national security agencies XE "national security agencies"  at every level.[17] Whereas the official and open churches try to cooperate with the state, the underground churches XE "underground churches"  and the house churches want to maintain independence XE "independence" . And they may even confront the state by refusing to register with the Department of Civil Affairs XE "Department of Civil Affairs" .[18] The Vatican made a deal with Beijing on the appointment of bishops and the merging of the official and underground churches in 2018, but the results so far are mixed, and conflicts abound.[19]

Nonetheless, numbers and percentages of the population are still an indication that the Church as a CSO XE "CSO"  is a force to be reckoned with. My discussion in the following sections addresses that effect despite the many constraints and obstacles facing the Church in China.

In addition to numbers and percentages, communication and cooperation within and between the Churches is also important, as Putnam would say. This is indeed hard for the unofficial church, but the official church sometimes has connections with other religions or religious organizations overseas. A research project by Renmin University in 2015 found that 9.9 percent of the 425 Catholic Churches [Zongjiao huodong changsuo宗教活动场所] they surveyed organized gatherings across different religions; 5.5 percent of the 1,465 Protestant Church arenas did the same. As for connections with overseas religious organizations, only 3.3 percent of the former and 5.3 percent of the latter organized activities.[20]

For example, in 2013 the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association XE "Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association"  and the Bishops’ Conference of the Catholic Church XE "Bishops’ Conference of the Catholic Church"  in China received Catholic leaders from Singapore, South Korea, Belgium, and the Orthodox Church leaders from Russia, and they visited the Catholic Church in Belgium and South Korea.[21] They also exchanged visits with one another across parishes and provinces in 2014, in and between, for example, Shanghai, Fujian, Hebei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hubei, and Chongqing.[22]

In 2013, the Protestant Church attended a forum held with the Protestant Church in Taipei to discuss peace and communication in August and the World Christian Association XE "World Christian Association" ’s tenth annual meeting in October and hosted a symposium with Protestant leaders from the US. In 2013, the National Committee of the Three-Self XE "Three-Self"  Patriotic Movement (TSPM XE "TSPM" ) (self-governing, self-propagating, and self-financing) of the Protestant Churches in China XE "National Committee of Three-Self Patriotic Movement of the Protestant Churches in China" t "See Three-Self"  and China Christian Council XE "China Christian Council"  (CCC XE "CCC" ) received 466 overseas visitors in 71 groups.[23] But if the Christian Church, both official and unofficial, has had a wealth of overseas contacts, including those with Hong Kong and Taiwan,[24] they are likely to be greatly curtailed under the Xi Jinping XE "Xi Jinping"  regime. [25] Relations with overseas churches are increasingly discouraged by the state and may even become a delegitimizing factor.

They also have regular meetings among themselves. In 2013, the official Catholic Church, for example, had joint meetings of bishops, meetings on parish management, on how to democratically run the Church following the instructions of Vatican XE "Vatican"  II XE "Vatican II" , on how to train religious personnel, on how to do charity XE "charity"  work, on how to localize theology XE "theology" , and so on. The Catholic Church at local levels also held regular meetings and activities in 2013.[26]

One thing that is distinctive about Christianity is its universalism, which requires connections between the churches in China and other Christian churches in the world. Even during the 1950s, Wu Yaozong, the chairman of the Three-Self Patriotic XE "patriotic"  Movement, “recognized the spiritual exchanges between the Chinese Church and the world’s Christians.”[27] But the Catholic Church’s connection with the Vatican XE "Vatican"  has always been an issue of contention regarding the consecration of bishops: who has the final say over the choice of candidates for the episcopacy? The government’s Three-Self XE "Three-Self"  concept would leave the Vatican out of the picture, but that is not what Catholicism is about. The Vatican wants the underground XE "underground"  church to become open and for its bishops to be named. But, as mentioned above, even though the Vatican and the Chinese government have now come to an agreement on these two issues, too many obstacles remain unresolved.[28]

In contrast, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan usually do not have any problem connecting with the universal church. In Hong Kong in 1988, for example, thirteen CSOs established Hong Kong Human Rights Commission, XE "Hong Kong Human Rights Commission"  including both the Catholic and Protestant Churches. Together, they have organized human rights XE "human rights"  reports and forums on issues ranging from health care to the safety of nuclear power plants.[29] As discussed below, the Christian Church in Hong Kong also coordinates the democracy XE "democracy"  movement in Hong Kong. In Taiwan, the Catholic and Protestant Churches both joined other religious groups in a declaration against legislation allowing homosexual XE "homosexual"  couples to marry.[30]

But they do have problems connecting with the mainland Christian Church. The Chinese government has already banned Chinese Christians from attending some religious conferences in Hong Kong, and it has increased oversight of mainland programs run by Hong Kong pastors.[31] Or these programs can only be on social service XE "social service"  issues. For example, in 2013, the TSPM XE "TSPM"  and the CCC XE "CCC"  invited leaders and experts from the Christian Church clinics in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan to come to the mainland to explore how to handle relationship between doctors and patients, how to manage finances in clinics run by the Christian Church, and other issues related to nutrition and health.[32]

In addition to the communication and cooperation within and between churches, another important issue is the Church’s relationship with the state XE "state" , which could also be viewed as a structural issue. In this regard, the mainland China Christian Church has a special advantage (or disadvantage): the open and official church’s leaders are usually members of the various levels of people’s congresses and political consultative conferences (PCCs).[33] Renmin University’s research found that 27.5 percent of the Catholic churches have priests serve as members of the PCC whereas 11.6 percent of the Protestant churches do. And 0.9 percent of the former has members serve on the people’s congress, XE "People’s Congress"  and 2.4 percent of the latter do.[34] Balance between the two churches seems to have been achieved in their representation in the two bodies: if there are more in one, then there are fewer in the other. But it does not matter because they are not decision-making bodies. In addition, the government agencies such as the religious bureaus and the united front departments meet from 2.9 to 4 times a year.[35]

Indeed, the open church, under the leadership of the TSPM XE "TSPM" , is part of the government apparatus and thus a government-organized nongovernmental organization (GONGO), rather than a regular NGO XE "NGO" t "See Non-Governmental Organization"  XE "NGO" . They have much closer connections with the government than in the case of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In Hong Kong, for example, the Catholic Church has refused to participate in the Chief Executive XE "Chief Executive"  Election Committee as one religious entity, although as a compromise it arranges for individual Catholics to join.

The Christian Church has covered large parts of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In all these places, the Catholic Church is smaller than the Protestant Church, except in Macau. But as Table 2.2 shows, even the Catholic Church covers a fair amount of ground. Table 2.2 lists the total number of the Catholic Church’s parishes, churches, and church-related organizations in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and Shanghai. It is true that the Catholic Church cannot represent the entire Christian Church, and Taipei and Shanghai cannot represent Taiwan and mainland China respectively, so we need to gather information for the entire Church in all four regions. Taiwan alone, for example, has 4,101 different Protestant churches.[36] But they give us an idea of the breadth of coverage by the Christian Church in Greater China, especially in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Again, this does not include the Protestant Church, which covers more ground in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and much more in mainland China except in Macau (for the differences in percentages between the two churches, see Table 1).[37]

""

Source: Zhidong Hao, Shun-hing Chan, Wen-ban Kuo, Yik Fai Tam, and Ming Jing, “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement: Case Studies of the Catholic Church in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and Shanghai,” Review of Religion and Chinese Society 1 (2014): 58.

As Table 2 shows, Macau’s Catholic Church covers the most people, with 16.83 churches and church-related organizations per 100,000 people, followed by Taipei, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. As Table 1 indicates, in Macau, the Catholic Church is much larger than the Protestant Church, so it is understandable that the number per 100,000 (16.83) there is much larger than in the other places (9.16 for Hong Kong and 10.96 for Taipei). In mainland China, the Catholic Church is much smaller than the Protestant Church, so it is understandable that the number per 100,000 in Shanghai (0.68) is much smaller. If these numbers are of any indication, and we combine Tables 1 (the percentage of Catholics and Protestants) and 2 (the Catholic Church), we can reasonably assume that the numbers of churches and church-related organizations per 100,000 should more than double in Hong Kong and Taiwan (because the percentage of Protestant population is slightly higher than the Catholic population) and would quadruple in mainland China. Still, the number in mainland China is much smaller proportionately because of the heavy religious suppression there. They may not increase much in Macau because the Protestant Church is significantly smaller in Macau.

Having done all those calculations and observations, we conclude that structurally Hong Kong and Taiwan are larger than Macau, and mainland China trails behind. In terms of churches and church-related organizations per 100,000, the Christian Church in mainland China is still comparatively small as a result of government suppression and oppression, although it still has the largest number of Christians. The Church in mainland China is a less influential and weaker CSO XE "CSO"  structurally. This is also true of other structural indicators, such as the interaction between and within the Church, and is seen later in their impact on civic activism XE "activism"  and social services XE "social services" . All these differences have to do with the political and legal environment for the Christian Church, to which we now turn.

Political and Legal Environment for the Christian Church

The political and legal environment for civil society XE "civil society" , which directly affects structure and impact, has worsened in mainland China in general since Xi Jinping XE "Xi Jinping"  came to power in 2012. In March 2013, the CCP XE "CCP"  distributed a document calling civil society a mechanism for undermining the social foundation of the CCP’s rule in China. Since then, some NGO XE "NGO"  organizers and rights protection lawyers have been arrested and sentenced to prison terms. Xu Zhiyong 许志永of Gongmeng (an organization that advocated equal rights for education and transparency of government finances) was sentenced in 2014 to four years in prison, and Meng Han 孟晗 of a workers’ service organization in Panyu, Guangdong, was arrested in December 2015 and later sentenced to twenty-one months of imprisonment. Some lawyers rounded up on July 9, 2015, were also sentenced to prison terms. Liberal XE "Liberal"  magazines and websites such as Yanhuang chunqiu [China Through the Ages炎黃春秋, a magazine on historical events], Lingdao zhe [Leaders, 領導者], Gongshi wang [Consensus XE "consensus" , 共識網,a website] have either been taken over by the party loyalists (the first one) or simply closed down (the latter two). Some entrepreneurs XE "entrepreneurs"  and academics have been arrested and even sentenced to prison terms. Examples are Tashi Wangchuk, a Tibetan XE "Tibetan"  entrepreneur and education advocate who was sentenced to five years in prison in 2018, and Ilham Tohti, an academic from Minzu University in Beijing, who was sentenced to life in prison for advocating Uyghur XE "Uyghur"  autonomy XE "autonomy" . Other entrepreneurs and academics who have been politically active and socially conscious have gotten the message about self-censorship and usually do not want to run the same risks.[38]

At the same time, the CCP XE "CCP" -state XE "state"  has tightened the rules and regulations governing NGOs and religious organizations to prevent the potential for a “color revolution XE "color revolution" ” as seen in the Soviet bloc and the Middle East. On April 28, 2016, the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress XE "People’s Congress"  (NPC XE "NPC" ) passed a law XE "law"  on managing—and, in essence, restricting—the activities of foreign NGOs, which then numbered 7,000, and their local partners. Each of them must register with the police XE "police"  (Article 6) or stop operating in the country. This means that the police monitor their activities, scrutinize their finances, and interrogate their employees at any time with much greater vigor than before (see Articles 41–43). These rules effectively discourage and even forbid foreign NGOs to operate in China and thereby limit what domestic NGOs can do. According to the law, foreign NGOs cannot have branches in China unless they are approved by the State Council (Article 18), and they cannot raise funds in China for their activities (Article 21). Chinese NGOs cannot represent or accept funding from any unregistered foreign NGOs (Article 32). NGOs, domestic and foreign, that advocate the protection of human rights XE "human rights" , democratization XE "democratization" , the rule of law XE "rule of law" , and government transparency are especially affected.[39] Article 5 stipulates that foreign NGOs cannot engage or support political and religious activities in China. The basic tone of the law is very negative toward foreign NGOs and by implication toward domestic NGOs as well.

To complement the rules on civil society XE "civil society" , the CCP XE "CCP"  state XE "state"  also passed the Religious Affairs XE "Religious Affairs"  Regulations in 2017. Like the new law XE "law"  on foreign NGOs, these regulations restrict religious organizations’ contact with foreign religious institutions. It specifically states that religious organizations practice independence XE "independence"  and self-governance and cannot be controlled by foreign forces (Article 5).

It requires religious organizations to register with the county-level government (Article 21). This seems to target the underground XE "underground"  and house churches XE "house churches" . It says that those who have not registered will be asked to register, and, if they do not, they will be closed (Article 65). Some think that the new rule effectively makes unregistered churches XE "unregistered churches"  illegal.[40] If they are illegal, the government can take action against them. In Anhui Province, for example, the government had already made plans before the new law XE "law"  to close family churches that did not register.[41] But it is not clear how effective this regulation will be. Underground XE "Underground"  and house churches usually refuse to register because doing so would mean that they would have to join the official church. So far, most of the time the government might pretend not to see them, but some churches have been closed, and others facing demolition XE "demolition" . For example, in the second half of 2018, three well-known churches were closed: the 500-member Early Rain XE "Early Rain"  Covenant Church in Chengdu, whose pastor, Wang Yi, was sentenced to nine years in prison at the end of 2019, the 1,500-member Zion Church XE "Zion Church"  in Beijing, and the 5,000-member Rongguili Church in Guangzhou.[42] Other churches face demolition, such as the Annunciation Church in Jiangxi Province, which serves 150 Catholics.[43]

The draft also stipulates for the first time that religious organizations are nonprofit XE "nonprofit"  social groups [shehui tuanti 社会团体], and it allows spiritual groups to engage in charitable work although no religious activities are allowed in the process (Articles 7, 38, 52, 56). It allows only national and provincial religious organizations to run seminaries [zongjiao yuanjiao 宗教院校] (Articles 11–18) and still does not allow religious organizations to run universities, colleges, secondary schools, or primary schools. Rather, it stipulates that no religious activities or organizations are allowed in regular schools (Article 44).[44]

In contrast to the tightening political and legal environment in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enjoy a much freer environment. Hong Kong’s Basic Law XE "Hong Kong Basic Law"  stipulates that religious organizations can run religious and other schools, hospitals, and provide charity XE "charity"  or other social services XE "social services"  (Article 141). Schools run by religious organizations can provide its students with religious education (Article 137), and they can maintain contacts with religious organizations and personnel from other parts of the world (Article 141).[45]

The rules and regulations in Macau are similar to and sometimes exactly the same as those in Hong Kong. Macau’s Basic Law XE "Basic Law"  stipulates that people there enjoy freedom of belief and can publicly preach their religion and participate in religious activities (Article 34). It states that the government will not interfere in the internal affairs of religious organizations or their relationship with religious organizations and personnel from other parts of the world (Article 128). The same article also stipulates that religious organizations can run religious schools and other schools, hospitals, and other welfare XE "welfare"  organizations, and provide social services XE "social services" . Religious schools can provide religious courses.[46] Although Taiwan’s rules and regulations regarding religion seem to be spread across various laws, religious organizations enjoy as many rights there as in Hong Kong and Macau.[47]

In sum, the Christian Church in mainland China faces a much stricter political and legal environment, especially after Xi rose to power in 2012. This greatly affects the role it can play (as seen in the section on their impact) and makes it a weaker CSO XE "CSO"  than the Church in other parts of Greater China. But, in terms of values, the difference among the churches is very small, as discussed below.

Values

Does the Christian Church value and practice democracy XE "democracy" , tolerance XE "tolerance" , gender XE "gender"  equity, nonviolence XE "non-violence" , poverty XE "poverty"  alleviation, and environmental XE "environmental"  protection, as is expected of civil societies? The picture may be mixed, but by and large the Church seems to be going in these directions, except in the election XE "elections"  of church leaders.

It is true that the Christian Church is not known as a democratic institution, because religious order and hierarchy XE "hierarchy"  is always dominant.[48] Most pastors are not popularly elected but, rather, are ordained, licensed, and appointed to serve a congregation. Bishops are appointed by the pope.[49] The Church tends to be conservative on some social issues, XE "social issues"  such as abortion XE "abortion"  and homosexuality. The Catholic Church, for example, considers abortion a sin, although the Vatican XE "Vatican"  recently announced that bishops, priests, and special confessors can grant forgiveness for it.[50]

But the Church does value freedom, equality, human dignity, poverty XE "poverty"  alleviation, nonviolence XE "non-violence" , and democratic ideas other than periodic and popular election of its own leaders. Vatican XE "Vatican"  II XE "Vatican II" ’s call for active engagement in protecting human rights XE "human rights"  and fighting poverty is one such example. Vatican II emphasizes the dignity and worth of the human person and the development of the complete individual.[51] The Church “was at the vanguard of the global human rights revolution during the ‘third wave of democratization XE "democratization" ’ from the mid-1970s to the 1990s,” and it is one of the vocal voices in demanding the humanization and moralization of market XE "market"  economies and fair and just treatment of workers.[52]

It is also true that not all churches follow Vatican XE "Vatican"  II XE "Vatican II" . Priests may be admonished to leave politics to the politicians, and some condemn liberation theology XE "liberation theology" .[53] Still, the Church persisted in love and peace. Pope XE "Pope"  Francis declared that, although the world is one of hostility, “in God’s heart there are no enemies.” Implicitly referring to the then–president-elect Donald Trump, he chided those who “raise walls, build barriers, and label people.” And he denounced the tendency to treat “a stranger, an immigrant XE "immigrant"  or a refugee” as the enemy.[54] This is certainly in line with Vatican II’s teachings and with the values of civil society XE "civil society" .

This is true in the Chinese Christian Church, too. In general, various religions in China do advocate love, tolerance XE "tolerance" , responsibility, trust, community, and good works.[55] In the 1990s in Wenzhou, lay leaders of Longgang Church debated whether they should engage in dialogue XE "dialogue"  with the government and finally came to a consensus XE "consensus"  that they should negotiate with the government on state XE "state"  policies regarding the protection of the interests of the Church. And they also tried to bridge the open and the underground XE "underground"  churches XE "underground churches"  by emphasizing reconciliation and unity.[56] Indeed, many believers “attend both the small group meetings in the house church and the sermon sessions” in the open church. And they treat one another as brothers and sisters, and they value truth.[57]

Wenzhou Christian entrepreneurs XE "entrepreneurs"  also brought investment and enterprises to poverty XE "poverty" -stricken areas while successfully evangelizing there.[58] The latter has become more difficult since 2018, when the new regulations went into effect. Still there is more that the Christian Church can do to implement these values, which is discussed in the next section.

In sum, in terms of values the Christian Church is not very different in the different locations. By and large, as a universal church, it conforms to the values of civil society XE "civil society"  even though it is more conservative on some issues. We can say that the Church is thus a strong CSO XE "CSO"  in terms of values in all the four regions.

Impact

In this section, I focus on two important impacts: political and social. By political, I mean civic activism XE "activism" , the efforts by the Christian Church in asserting its own rights and supporting democratic movement in terms of promoting egalitarian values and freedom of speech XE "freedom of speech"  and religion as would be explicated by Habermas and Putnam. By social, I mean their efforts in providing social services XE "social services"  in education, elder care, and so on.

Political Engagement and Civic Activism

In mainland China, the conflict between the Christian Church and the party-state XE "state"  traces back to the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China XE "Republic of China" . The party-state thought that there were reactionaries within the Church who would conspire with imperialists in their cultural invasion and espionage.[59] For example, the Catholic Church alone had numerous deaths, expulsions, and detentions among its adherents. “The bishops and clergy in China led a heroic struggle in their efforts to keep the church independent from the state: some of them died as martyrs XE "martyrs" , over 2,400 foreign priests were expelled from China (in 1949 there were 2,500 of them), and hundreds of them were imprisoned (in 1955, in Shanghai alone about 1,200 leading Catholics were arrested).”[60] Clergy who did not cooperate include Wang Mingdao 王明道, Kung Pin-Mei 龚品梅, and Watchman Nee 倪柝声 [Ni Tuosheng].[61]

Others in the Christian Church, however, cooperated with the government and joined the “Three-Self” Movement, such as Wu Yaozong 吴耀宗, “a patriotic XE "patriotic"  Christian who actively participated in resisting Japanese XE "Japanese"  aggression and the national salvation movement during the 1930s.”[62] In the contemporary era, examples of those seeking the state XE "state" ’s recognition and negotiating the boundaries between religion and politics include not only the Three-Self XE "Three-Self"  church but some Christian entrepreneurs XE "entrepreneurs" .[63]

But there is also resistance. The 2015 Catholic campaign in Wenzhou against church demolitions XE "demolitions"  and cross removals is one example of how the Christian Church attempts to resist what it viewed as erroneous religious policies and to protect its beliefs and practices. The Wenzhou clergy’s public statement, titled “Wenzhou Catholic Diocese XE "Diocese" ’s Appeal to Fellow Countrymen and Christians throughout China,” was even more daring, especially when it called on citizens and Christians in all of China to stand up for their civil rights XE "civil rights" .[64] Even provincial branches of the Three-Self XE "Three-Self"  Patriotic Movement and the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association sent letters to CCP leaders condemning the crackdown on Christian symbols.[65] Even though, from February 2014 to August 2015 alone, 1,200 crosses were removed (see for example Figure 2), the Christian Church’s daring actions made history and were a landmark in rights protection movements. It will no doubt inspire the same in China’s own civil society XE "civil society"  movements.[66]

""

Figure 2: Tu Shouzhe, a Protestant lay leader, standing on the roof of his church in Muyang, Zhejiang Province, last year, hours after government workers cut down its cross.

Source: Credit Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press, in Ian Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival,” The New York Times, Oct. 7, 2016.

But this kind of resistance is rare, and it is equally rare for it to succeed. On July 7, 2012, Thaddeus Ma Daqin, the auxiliary bishop of Shanghai, declared that he would no longer serve in the CCPA XE "Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association" . He was demoted from his position and remains under virtual house arrest, unable to perform his duties. The imprisonment of the Early Rain XE "Early Rain"  pastor and believers mentioned above is another example. Apparently, resistance is still risky, and civic activism XE "activism"  in mainland China is rare, indeed.

So far, the Christian Church in Hong Kong has not had the same political and legal constraints, and it has played a much more active role in civil society XE "civil society" . In the 1980s and 1990s, before and after the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997, the Catholic Church was involved in social advocacy supporting the right of brides from China to reside legally in Hong Kong after marriage (1985), the welfare XE "welfare"  of Vietnamese refugees XE "refugees"  (1988), the right of illegal workers in Hong Kong (1988), retirement benefits of Hong Kong residents (1992), health-care policies (1993), gender XE "gender"  equality (1994–1995), against the abuse of power by the police (1996), and so on. The Church was active in mobilizing people to support direct elections XE "elections"  with petitions, forums, and declarations. And they strongly supported the democracy XE "democracy"  movement in China in 1989.[67] The Church strongly opposed the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region XE "HKSAR"  government’s move to ask the Chinese NPC XE "NPC"  to interpret the law XE "law"  on the rights of mainland children born in Hong Kong to become Hong Kong citizens. The Church’s role in the movement against the legislation of Article 23 XE "Article 23"  regarding national security was instrumental in the demonstration XE "demonstration"  by 500,000 people on July 1, 2003.[68]

The Protestant Church has also been actively involved in civil society XE "civil society"  movements. The Hong Kong Christian Council XE "Hong Kong Christian Council"  [Jidujiao xie jin hui基督教协进会] organized a movement against bus companies for raising fares in 1980, and against power companies for raising fees in 1981. The Protestant Church’s concerns included issues related to the economy, political democratization XE "democratization" , human rights XE "human rights" , culture, education, women’s rights, the Basic Law XE "Basic Law" , the future of Hong Kong, and so forth. It also joined the Catholic Church in the movement against the legislation of Article 23 XE "Article 23" . The Church of Christ in China criticized the government on issues such as undocumented children’s right to attend school (2001), the rights of peaceful demonstrations XE "demonstrations"  (2002), the legislation of Article 23 (2003), universal suffrage XE "universal suffrage"  (2004, 2005), and opposition to interpretation of Hong Kong law XE "law"  by the Chinese NPC XE "NPC" .[69]

In 2014, Christians in Hong Kong played a key role in the Umbrella Movement XE "Umbrella Movement"  to strive for universal suffrage XE "universal suffrage" , and their advocacy of nonviolence is also notable (see Figures 3 and 4).[70] In 2016, 725 Christians in both the Catholic and Protestant Churches signed a petition asking the NPC XE "NPC"  to refrain from interpretation of what was and was not the standard way to take an oath at the inauguration of new legislators, trusting the Hong Kong court to make the right judgment.[71] The Catholic Church’s justice and peace commission also made statements against the NPC’s attempt to interfere with Hong Kong’s autonomy.[72] Coadjutor bishop Yeung made a statement at a press conference lamenting the NPC’s interpretation of Hong Kong’s Basic Law XE "Basic Law"  while calling for the protection of the “one country, two systems” arrangement between Hong Kong and mainland China.[73] In 2019, the Church was also actively involved in the protest XE "protest"  movement against the government’s effort to pass an extradition bill XE "extradition bill" , calling for peaceful protest and reasonable engagement.

The Chinese government views the Christian Church’s political engagement before and after the handover and its advocacy of democracy XE "democracy"  and support for democratization XE "democratization"  as hostile activity in opposition to “the historical tide.” And it claims that the Church is being used by “international anti-Chinese forces.”[74] The CCP XE "CCP"  has always feared that Hong Kong would become an anti-party-state XE "state"  base, and it is especially wary of the Church’s role in it. That might be one reason that the religious crackdown on the mainland is severe. Macau’s case of a timid church, discussed below, which might indicate that not all the churches are the same, does not seem to give it much assurance.

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Figure 3: Pro-democracy protesters from a politically active Christian church hold up yellow umbrellas, a symbol of the Occupy Central civil disobedience movement, as they sing Christmas carols at Times Square in Hong Kong early on Dec. 25, 2014.

Source: Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Tyrone Siu, Religion News Service at http://religionnews.com/2016/03/08/chinas-efforts-mold-christianity-in-its-own-image-face-resistance/, last accessed Nov. 21, 2016.

In Macau, rather than engaging in activism as XE "activism"  called for by Vatican XE "Vatican"  II XE "Vatican II" , the Catholic Church has instead engaged in corporatism XE "corporatism"  in its relationship with the government. In fact, the Catholic Church was part of the government in colonial XE "colonial"  times. Initially, Catholicism was the state XE "state"  religion, and the bishops played a key role in the government of Macau. Following that tradition, the Church has offered steadfast service to the government in the education of children and the care of the elderly, discussed further below. After the handover of Macau to China in 1999, the Church adopted a low-key position and seldom if ever joined the political movements there, unlike the Church in Hong Kong. If the Church has played a role at all, it is through individual Catholics such as Ng Kuo Cheong (a legislator) and Chan Wai Chi (a former legislator and editor of the weekly often critical of the government), both of whom are strong advocates of democracy XE "democracy" .[75]

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Figure 4: The retired Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun leading a demonstration demanding universal suffrage, June 2014.

Source: Gu Qinger, “首日公投超40萬,港人反中共聲音強烈”,at Epochtimes, http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/14/6/21/n4183208.htm, accessed July 16, 2017.

In Taiwan as well, the Christian Church has a tradition of civic engagement, like Hong Kong but very much unlike Macau. In the 1980s, the Catholic Church conflicted with the government over labor XE "labor"  issues, which resulted in the expulsion of some foreign priests from Taiwan.[76] As Lin Pen Hsuan points out, even if the number of Christians in Taiwan is comparatively small, their influence is important [Fayan bijiao you fenliang 发言比较有份量]. The Presbyterian Church has advocated for Taiwan independence XE "independence" . In the 1970s, for example, it published three statements to that effect (Guoshi shengming 国是声明, a declaration of national affairs, 1971; Women de huyu我们的呼吁, our appeals, 1975; Renquan xuanyan人权宣言, a declaration of human rights, 1977) and one statement on Taiwan independence (Taiwan zhuquan duli xuanyan 台湾主权独立宣言, 1991). [77] Its role in the independence movement is noteworthy.

In the controversy over the legalization of gay marriage in 2016, while some Protestant Christians supported such legislation, the Catholic Church strongly opposed it and had launched a campaign opposing it (see Figure 5). It said that the Church did not oppose giving gays and lesbians the right to obtain inheritance benefits, burial together, hospital visits, and approval of medical treatment for their significant other, but they opposed extending the right to marriage. The Catholic Church organized 10,000 petitions to Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (legislature) and President Tsai Ying-wen. One Catholic commented that this had been the first large-scale protest XE "protest"  movement launched by the Church in the sixty years since he had been baptized.[78] In other words, the Catholics engaged in less civic engagement than the Protestants.

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Figure 5: Catholics against homosexual marriage

Source:  The Catholic Voice at http://www.cathvoice.org.tw/news, 11/16/2016.

In sum, the Christian Church in Hong Kong is apparently the most vibrant in civic activism XE "activism" , followed by Taiwan. The Church in mainland China seems to be catching up but with all the political and legal constraints, it is very difficult—if not impossible—for it to play a bigger role than it does now. The Church is the most passive in civic activism in Macau. So, in terms of the church’s performance in civic activism and possible impact, Hong Kong is the strongest CSO XE "CSO" , followed by Taiwan, mainland China, and Macau.

Social Services

As mentioned above, the Chinese government, while maintaining control, finds that religion can be of some use, too. It has allowed religious organizations to offer limited social services XE "social services" . For example, data on 2013 show that the open Catholic Church ran 9 orphanages, 7 special education schools, 53 elder-care centers, 136 clinics, 8 hospitals, 43 kindergartens, 2 cultural schools, and 1 occupational school. It was also involved in services for AIDS patients, building wells for drought-stricken areas, support for students in poor families, donations to disadvantaged groups totaling RMB 27.74 million (in the previous five years, cash donations totaled RMB 250 million).[79] Meanwhile, the TSPM XE "TSPM"  and the CCC XE "CCC"  created elder-care centers and trained 110 caregivers. They were involved in forty-four social service XE "social service"  activities, including five related to child care, seven related to education in impoverished areas, six related to health and sanitation, four related to increasing service abilities, nine related to elder-care training, six in seminary work, five in disaster XE "disaster"  relief, and two on overseas exchange, with total spending of RMB 7.7 million.[80] But, given the size of the mainland population, those services are minimal.

Still, they indicate that the official Christian Church in China focuses on social services XE "social services" . In 2014, the Church organized visits to the US and Australia to learn what these countries do with elder care, hospitals, and so on. And it has begun to train its own elder-care personnel.[81] Meanwhile, the Amity XE "Amity"  Foundation of the Protestant Church initiated seventeen charity XE "charity"  programs in 2014, including education of the children of migrant XE "migrant"  workers, public sanitation, environmental XE "environmental"  protection, disaster XE "disaster"  control, and elder-care. The Shanghai YMCA XE "YMCA"  engage in similar activities.[82]

Wenzhou Christian entrepreneurs XE "entrepreneurs"  helped “a poor inland city to establish an orphanage-based evangelization center,” and in another place a Christian culture-based school spread religion while providing social services XE "social services" . This active participation in political and social affairs contrasts sharply with the older generation’s confrontational mentality and passive social participation.[83]

All these social services XE "social services" , however, are dwarfed by the Christian Church’s activity on the mainland before 1949 and in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. In 1875, mainland China had about 800 Christian schools with around 20,000 students. The Protestant Church ran 350 of them with about 6,000 students. In 1875–1900, the number of Christian schools increased to around 2,000, with a student body of about 40,000.[84] The Christian Church’s statistics XE "statistics"  for 1922 indicate that it ran 265 middle schools in 19 provinces, with a student population of 67,600. China had 16 well-regarded universities under religious auspices at a time when it had only three public universities (Beijing University, Shanxi University, and Beiyang University) and five other private universities.[85] In Shaanxi, for example, the Protestant Church established 39 schools between 1888 and 1936. It established girls schools, among them Zunde Middle School in Xi’an,[86] and was the first to advocate equality between men and women. See Figure 6 below.

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Figure 6: The graduating class of Zun De Middle School in 1950

Source: Wang Shuofeng, “早期基督教在陕西办学情况及其教育理念和影响:以西安市三中前身‘尊德中学’为例”

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Figure 7: Students at Miss Aldersey’s school having a class

Source: Jennifer Bond, “Foreign Puppets, Christian Mothers or Revolutionary Martyrs? The Multiple Identities of Missionary School Students in Zhejiang, 1923-1949.”

In 1844, the British missionary XE "missionary"  Mary Ann Aldersey established the first Christian school for girls in China, Riverside Academy, in Ningbo, Zhejiang. Even though the teachers wanted the students to become good wives and mothers [xian qi liang mu 贤妻良母], many of them became doctors, professors, and revolutionaries.[87] See Figures 7, 8 and 9 about the Academy.

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Figure 8: Student association staff members

Source: Jennifer Bond, “Foreign Puppets, Christian Mothers or Revolutionary Martyrs? The Multiple Identities of Missionary School Students in Zhejiang, 1923-1949,”

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Figure 9: YWCA members

Source: Jennifer Bond, “Foreign Puppets, Christian Mothers or Revolutionary Martyrs? The Multiple Identities of Missionary School Students in Zhejiang, 1923-1949.”

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Figure 10: The Saint Joseph music band

Source: Zhang Xiaoyi, “徐汇中学‘崇思楼’设计者叶肇昌与土山湾乐队.”


Francisco-Xavier Diniz [Yezhaochang 叶肇昌], a Macanese who grew up in Shanghai, organized a military band called the Fanfare de Saint Joseph [Sheng yue se jun yue dui 圣约瑟军乐队] in Tushanwan, Shanghai, in 1903. The members of the band were children from a nearby orphanage in Xuhui District (see Figures 10 and 11).[88]

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Figure 11: A priest named 双国英 is teaching a Chinese student saxophone

Source: Zhang Xiaoyi, “徐汇中学‘崇思楼’设计者叶肇昌与土山湾乐队.”

Gao Shining and He Guanghu summarized the social services XE "social services"  offered by the Christian Church in China before 1949: by 1941 it had established 8,034 schools of all kinds; and by 1920, the Protestant Church had established 7,382 schools, including 14 universities. Missionaries XE "missionaries"  established 800 hospitals. Before 1949, hospitals run by the Church comprised 70 percent of the hospitals in China. It had also established hundreds of orphanages and elder-care centers. It founded 70 newspapers and magazines, making up 95 percent of the newspapers and magazines. By 1930, the Catholic Church had built 20 publishers, and by 1935 the Protestant Church had opened 69 presses. The books they published covered the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities.[89]

This is hardly an exhaustive list. Missionaries published the first Chinese-English dictionary, compiled ethno-cultural studies of minority groups, and tropical medicine compendia. The breadth was astonishing and went well beyond religion. It bears mention that many of the initial PRC leaders had been educated at missionary or church-run schools all the way up to university. Deng Xiaoping learned French at a missionary school. Former students of these schools learned German and translated Marx into Chinese. There was a great intersection between the church and the communist leadership.[90]

Since the reform XE "reform"  and opening in the late 1970s, the mainland Chinese Christian Church has been trying to revive some of the work of its forerunners before 1949. But in the current circumstances, it is unlikely that they will get very far even in their social service XE "social service"  initiatives such as hospitals and elder-care centers. They certainly cannot run religious schools and universities as they did seventy years ago, at least not for the foreseeable future. If it could do all it wanted to, the mainland Christian Church might function in a way that is similar to the Church in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. We now examine what these other churches have done.

In terms of social services XE "social services" , about 50 percent of the schools in Hong Kong were opened and continue to be operated by Christian churches, and they offer about a quarter of the social services in the city.[91] They also started several higher education institutions, including the Divinity School of Chung Chi College [Chongji Shuyuan崇基书院] at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Baptist University [Xianggang Jinhui Daxue香港浸会大学], and Lingnan University [Lingnan Daxue岭南大學]. The latter two universities are now publicly funded institutions with a heritage of Christian education.

The biggest social service XE "social service"  organization is Caritas Hong Kong of the Catholic Church, which offers services such as special education, rehabilitation, clinics, elder-care, youth support, occupational training, and refuge centers. The Christian Church runs 70 percent of Hong Kong’s charitable organizations.[92] As the government statistics XE "statistics"  show, the Catholic Church manages 256 schools and kindergartens with 158,000 students, 6 hospitals, 13 clinics, 43 social and family service centers, 23 dormitories, 16 elder-care centers, 27 rehabilitation centers, and others. Similarly, the Protestant Church runs schools, hospitals, clinics, child-care centers, elder-care centers, centers for people with disabilities, rehabilitation centers for drug addicts, and so on. [93]

In Macau, according to the Handbook of the Catholic Church (2012), the Church runs 35 schools, from primary school to university, most of which are primary and secondary schools. There is only one university, the University of St. Joseph. And there are 40 social service XE "social service"  organizations, including Carita de Macau, child-care centers, hospices, elder-care centers, clinics, dormitories, centers for the mentally and physically handicapped, women’s centers, and libraries.[94] The Christian schools in Macau teach about 50 percent of the primary and secondary school students there (see Table 3).

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Source: Education and Youth Affairs Bureau websites at http://202.175.82.54/dsej/stati/2015/c/edu_num15_part1.pdf; http://appl.dsej.gov.mo/edustat/edu/stat_d/other_xls.jsp?filename=lotacao.xls; last accessed Nov. 28, 2016.

The Christian Church in Taiwan is actively involved in running schools, universities, and colleges, hospitals and clinics, and other welfare XE "welfare"  facilities.[95] For example, the Catholic Church is currently running 12 hospitals, 15 clinics, 4 elder-care center, 28 rehabilitation centers (启智中心,残障中心) for the mentally ill and the physically disabled, 9 health-care centers (疗养院), 5 children’s centers (少年城) and other social services XE "social services"  for the Aborigines, migrant labor XE "labor" , elderly with memory difficulties (失智老人), girls in trouble (迷途少女), vagrants, prisoners, and hospices (临终照顾). They serve the neglected, powerless, humble, poor, silent, needy, and otherwise disadvantaged.[96] In addition, the Catholic Church runs 3 universities—Fu Jen Catholic University [Furen Daxue辅仁大学], Providence University [Jingyi Daxue静宜大学], and Wenzao Ursuline University of Languages—and 44 primary and secondary schools.[97]

The Protestant Church also runs a number of universities, such as Chung Yuan Christian University [Zhongyuan Daxue中原大学], Chang Jung Christian University [Changrong Daxue长荣大学], Tunghai University [Donghai Daxue东海大学], Aletheia University [Zhenli Daxue真理大学], and St. John’s University [Sheng Yuese Keji Daxue圣约瑟科技大学]. This is in addition to many other social service XE "social service"  organizations that it manages.

In sum, the social services XE "social services"  offered by the Christian Church in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are commendable. In view of what the Christian Church did in mainland China before 1949, it could do much more if permitted to do so by the government rules and regulations. In terms of the strength of the Christian Church as a CSO XE "CSO"  in social services, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are much stronger than mainland China.

Conclusions

In this chapter, I analyzed the organizational structure of the Christian Church, the political and legal environment it faces as a civil society XE "civil society" , the values of the Church, and its impact in civic activism XE "activism"  and social services XE "social services" . What can we conclude about the Church in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan?

Because we lack comprehensive comparative survey data on these issues, our conclusions can only be tentative and preliminary. But based on our findings in other research, we can draw some tentative conclusions. In our research on the Catholic Church and its civic engagement in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and mainland China, we found that when regulations are stricter, or the political and legal environment is more severe, less civic activism takes place XE "activism"  (see Table 4).[98] This sounds like common sense, but it is nice to have data to back it up. As said earlier, Taipei cannot represent all of Taiwan and Shanghai cannot represent all of mainland China, but they still give us an idea of the differences between the regions.

Table 4 shows that, regarding the Catholic Church in Greater China, “the less notice respondents take of government opinion, or the less government regulation, the more participation in civic activism XE "activism"  there is, and vice versa.”[99] Hong Kong has the lowest rate of heeding official government opinions (举办和参与某项活动时在多大程度上要考虑政府官员的态度, 5.6%) and the highest percentage of civic activist XE "activist"  participation (47.4%). Shanghai has the highest percentage of heeding official government opinions (69.6%) and the lowest percentage of civic activism (社会批评7.8%). “Heeding official government opinion” is an indicator that the churches and church-related organizations follow government regulations and attitudes when they initiate or participate in an activity—that is, of the influence of the political and legal environment.

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Table 4. The Relationship between Government Regulations and Civic Engagement (in percent)

Source: Zhidong Hao, Shun-hing Chan, Wen-ban Kuo, Yik Fei Tam, and Jing Ming, “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement: Case Studies of the Catholic Church in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and Shanghai,” Review of Religion and Chinese Society 1 (2014).

The differences among the four jurisdictions in social service XE "social service"  provision are small (from 74.5% to 78.9%), except in Hong Kong (96.5%). But this similarity may be misleading. We know for a fact that many more social services are provided in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan than in mainland China, proportionately, than is indicated in the table.

We can say the same about the Christian Church in Greater China in general: the tighter the political and legal environment, the less civic activism XE "activism"  and social services XE "social services" . The extent to which the Christian Church believes in civil society XE "civil society"  values might also differ in different regions. Our research found that the more that the churches and church-related organizations believe in the appropriateness of airing their views on democratization XE "democratization"  (the prophetic role), the more likely it is that they will participate in civic activism XE "activism"  and vice versa (see Table 5).[100] Again, the difference between Hong Kong and Shanghai (92.9% vs. 51.0%) in this regard shows a stark contrast, and Macau and Taipei are between these extremes. The democratization value understandably influences civic activism. The number of people holding the same value differs among the four regions of Greater China, with Hong Kong the strongest as a CSO XE "CSO" .

But here I emphasize that, as mentioned earlier, in terms of values in general, there might not be much difference among churches in Greater China. That helps explain much of the Church’s political engagement and civic activism, XE "activism"  as well as social services, XE "social services"  although some of the variations might result from differences in values, such as the prophetic belief, which we now discuss.

The lower value of the prophetic role for the mainland Chinese Christian Church is not necessarily a result of political constraints. It may well be a problem of denominational diversity, and theology XE "theology"  and orientation to the world also matters.[101] Certain pietistic/fundamentalist XE "fundamentalist"  groups might reject involvement in “the world,” regardless of government restrictions. That is something on which further research is needed. As we point out in our research on the Catholic Church’s civic engagement in Greater China, individuals such as Wang Mingdao and Kung Pin-Mei also played important roles.[102] Political constraints should be studied alongside cultural (including denominational culture) and individual factors. These are all subjects for interesting research.

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Table 5. The Effect of Prophetic Belief on Civic Activism (in percent)

Source: Zhidong Hao, Shun-hing Chan, Wen-ban Kuo, Yik Fei Tam, and Jing Ming, “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement: Case Studies of the Catholic Church in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and Shanghai,” Review of Religion and Chinese Society 1 (2014).

Nonetheless, considering the influence of the environment and values on their impact in terms of civic activism XE "activism"  and social service XE "social service" , the strength of the Christian churches as CSOs in different regions of Greater China are illustrated in Figure 2.2.

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Figure 12: The Christian Church in Greater China as Weak and Strong CSOs

In mainland China, as Thomas Dubois, a professor at the Australian National University, comments, the government seems to recognize that religion can be useful, but it needs to create clear boundaries to indicate what religion can and cannot do.[103] For the foreseeable future, what it can do will continue to be dwarfed by what it did before 1949 and what the Christian Church in other parts of Greater China can do now.

But will Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan be able to continue their civic activism XE "activism"  and social service XE "social service"  activities? In Taiwan there seems to be little question, but it is less certain in Hong Kong and Macau.

In Hong Kong, the influence of the mainland was already felt in 2014, when the central government denied the appeals of Hong Kong society for universal suffrage XE "universal suffrage"  and, in 2015, when it arrested Hong Kong book publishers and sellers through clandestine and illegal means, in 2016, when the central government preempted the high court in Hong Kong in the oath-taking incident, and in 2019, when the Hong Kong government tried (and failed) to pass the extradition law, undermining XE "law"  Hong Kong’s legal system. The mainland domination culminated in 2020 when a national security law was imposed on Hong Kong and the freedom of speech and press freedom are greatly hampered. So, the political and legal environment in Hong Kong is increasingly unfriendly to civic activism XE "activism" . It remains to be seen how the church in general is going to be affected.

In Macau, pro-Beijing youth organizations are enticing young Catholics to join their various activities. As a result, the number of young Catholics is dwindling, and some Catholic youth organizations are being disbanded.[104] In 2014, two universities, including the University of St. Joseph, fired professors for their political views and activities, which does not bode well for the political environment in Macau.[105] In 2016, the deputy director of the Central Liaison Office, Xue Xiaofeng, visited the Catholic Schools Association. The association’s head and the deputy director both emphasized the need to “love the country and love Macau” [ao guo ai ao爱国爱澳] as a principle for running the schools even if they have different ways of expressing their school mission statements.[106] All these will affect people’s willingness to participate in civic activism XE "activism" , including Christians.

Even in Taiwan, the political, economic, XE "economic"  and social influence of the mainland can be clearly felt. In a paper presented at a Catholic Church meeting in 2016, one school principal frequently cited “General Secretary Xi Jinping XE "Xi Jinping" ” in remarks about innovations.[107]

Under these circumstances, will the Christian Church in mainland China make more inroads in civic activism XE "activism"  and social service XE "social service" , functioning like a real CSO XE "CSO" ? Will Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan be able to keep it up? Only time will tell.

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[1] This paper has been published as chapter 2 in Shun-hing Chan and Jonathan W. Johnson (eds.) Citizens of Two Kingdoms: Civil Society and Christian Religion in Greater China (Leidon/Boston: Brill, 2021), pp. 32-74. In this version I have added some figures that were cut in the printed version. I have changed the table and figure numbers for smooth reading and corrected a typographical error. I want to thank Prof. Chan for organizing the original conference where I presented the paper and the peer-reviewers for their revision comments. I’d also like to thank co-editor Prof. Jonathan W. Johnson and other editors at Brill for their painstaking work for the paper to be presented in its most professional fashion.

[2] See, e.g., Zhidong Hao and Yan Liu, “Mutual Accommodation in Church-State Relationship in China? A Case Study of the Sanjiang Church Demolition in Zhejiang,” Review of Religion and Chinese Society, no. 5 (2018); UCA News, “Chinese Christians Warned Not to Speak about Persecution,” July 9, 2019, at https://www.ucanews.com/news/chinese-christians-warned-not-to-speak-about-persecution/85595/, accessed July 14, 2019.

[3] CIVICUS XE "CIVICUS" , “Who We Are,” http://www.civicus.org/index.php/who-we-are/, accessed November 20, 2016; SIDA (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency), “Civil Society Index: Documentation of Seminar on CSI XE "CSI" , a Participatory Tool for Strengthening the Civil Society,” May 2007.

[4] See also SIDA, “Civil Society Index”; Helmut K. Anheier, “Reflections on the Concept of and Measurement of Global Civil Society,” Voluntas 18 (2007): 3–5.

[5] Jürgen Habermas, “Further Reflections on the Public Sphere XE "Public Sphere" ,” in Habermas and the Public Sphere, ed. Craig Calhoun, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1989), 453–54. See also James R. Wood and Jon P. Bloch, “The Role of Church Assemblies in Building a Civil Society: The Case of the United Methodist General Conference’s Debate on Homosexuality,” Sociology of Religion 56, No. 2(1995):121-136.

[6] See also Adam B. Seligman, The Idea of Civil Society (New York: Free Press, 1992), 201.

[7] Cited in Richard Madsen, China’s Catholics: Tragedy and Hope in an Emerging Civil Society (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998), 14; see Robert D. Putnam, Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), 87–90.

[8] Anheier, “Reflections on the Concept,” 5, 11–12.

[9] Seligman, The Idea of Civil Society, ix, 66, 186, 203.

[10] “In 2012 CIVICUS XE "CIVICUS"  developed our new Civil Society Rapid Assessment tool, with the aim of better understanding and supporting the new forms and dynamics that are defining civil society XE "civil society"  in different contexts.” See http://www.civicus.org/.CIVICUS20/index.php/en/what-we-do-126/2014-04-25-03-26-23/csi-ra/, accessed November 20, 2016. The main ideas, however, are the same.

[11] Sabine Reimer, “Civil Society and Its Measurement in an International Research Project: Methodological Issues Emanating from the Conducted German Analysis,” http://www.crida-fr.org/03_actualites/streams/M%20-%20ISTR-EMES%20Reimer.doc, accessed September 23, 2008. For examples using CSI XE "CSI"  in analyzing civil societies in Greater China, see Hao Zhidong. “Gongmin shehui zhishu jieshao: Jianlun Aomen gongmin shehui 公民社会指数介绍:兼论澳门公民社会[An Introduction to the Civil Society XE "civil society"  Index and Exploration on Civil Society in Macau],” in Gongmin shehui: Zhongguo dalu yu Gang Ao Tai 公民社会 XE "公民社会" :中国大陆与港澳台 [Civil Society: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan], ed. Hao Zhidong (Singapore: World Scientific and Macau: University of Macau, 2013); Jia Xijin. “Zhongguo gongmin shehui de xianzhuang yu qianjing中国公民社会的现状与前景 [The Current Status of and Future Prospects for Civil Society in China], a talk delivered at Tianze Shuangzhou Luntan [Biweekly forum of Tianze], February 29, 2008; Choi Hai-wei, Chan Tsu-wei, Chan Yi-wen, Chan Chin-tang, and Chan Kin Man, “Gongmin shehui zhishu: Xianggang tebie xingzhengqu baogao jianjie公民社会指数:香港特别行政区报告简介  [Civil Society Index: An Introduction to Hong Kong Special Administrative Zone],” at http://www.hkcss.org.hk/cb4/csi/060429speech/ Workshop-hksar_intro_chi.ppt, accessed November 15, 2009.

[12] Liu Peng, “Zhongguo you duoshao jidujiaotu 中国有多少基督教徒?[How Many Christians Are There in China?], at Aisixiang Net, http://www.aisixiang.com/data/71912.html, January 28, 2014.  

[13] Fenggang Yang, “Exceptionalism or Chinamerica: Measuring Religious Change in the Globalizing World,” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 55, no. 1 (2016): 9–10.

[14] Fenggang Yang, “Exceptionalism or Chinamerica,” 9–10. Li Xiangping reports that according to official statistics XE "statistics" , by January 2013, there were 5,500 religious organizations in China, with religious personnel of 360,000 and a following in the range of 100 million and 300 million. There were 140,000 sites for religious activities and close to 100 religious personnel training schools, with 40,000 graduates. See Li Xiangping, “’Shetuan’ yu ‘faren’ de shuangchong jiangou  ‘社团’与‘法人’的双重建构 [Construction of a Double Identity of Social Groups and Legal Entities],” Renmin University Reprinted Materials, http://rd.nje.cn/Qw/Paper/581915/, accessed November 22, 2016.

[15] See Madsen, China’s Catholics, 6–8, 16; idem, “Catholic Revival during the Reform Era,” China Quarterly, no. 174.

[16] Ian Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival,” New York Times, October 7, 2016.

[17] Liu Peng, “Zhongguo you duoshao jidujiaotu?”

[18] Shun-hing Chan, “Changing Church-State Relations in Contemporary China: The Case of Wenzhou Diocese XE "Diocese" ,” International Sociology 31, no. 4 (2016): 497–99.

[19] Jason Horowitz and Ian Johnson, “China and Vatican XE "Vatican"  Reach Deal on Appointments of Bishops,” New York Times, September 22, 2018,  A1; UCA News, “Amid Tensions in China, Vatican Tells Clergy to Follow Their Conscience,” July 1, 2019, https://www.ucanews.com/news/amid-tensions-in-china-vatican-tells-clergy-to-follow-their-conscience/85533/, accessed July 14, 2019.

[20] Wei Dedong and Wang Weidong, “Yindao yu shiying: Zhongguo Renmin Daxue ‘Zhonguo zongjiao diaocha baogao (2015)’ 引导与适应:中国人民大学 ‘中国宗教调查报告(2015)’  [Direct and Adapt: Renmin University’s Report on Chinese Religions in 2015],”  in Zhongguo zongjiao baogao (2015)  中国宗教报告(2015)[Annual Report on Religions in China (2015)], ed. Qiu Yonghui (Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, 2016), 324.

[21] Liu Guopeng, “2013 nian Zhongguo tianzhujiao xianzhuang ji fenxi 2013 年中国天主教现状及分析[Analysis on the Status of China’s Catholic Church in 2013],” in Zhongguo zongjaio baoguo (2014), 127–31.       

[22]  Liu Guopeng, “2014 nian Zhongguo tianzhujiao fazhan zhuangkuang ji dui kangzhan qijian tianzhujiao rendao zhuyi yuanzhu de jiazhi chongu  2014年中国天主教发展状况及对抗战期间天主教人道主义援助的价值重估 [Report on the Status of the Catholic Church’s Development and Re-Evaluation of the Catholic Church’s Humanitarian Aid in the Anti-Japanese XE "Japanese"  War in China in 2014], in Zhongguo zongjiao baogao (2015), ed. Qiu Yonghui, 156–60.

[23] Tang Xiaofeng and Duan Qi, “2013 nian Zhongguo jidujiao gaikuang ji jidujao de minjianhua baogao 2013年中国基督教概况及基督教的民间化报告 [A Report on the Basic Situation of the Protestant Church and Its Localization in 2013],”  in Zhongguo zongjiao baogao (2014) 中国宗教报告(2014) [Annual Report on Religions in China (2014)], ed. Qiu Yonghui  (Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, 2016) , 21.

[24] Madsen, “Catholic Revival during the Reform Era,” 166.

[25] At the time of this writing, we have not found any new information in later yearbooks about further exchanges. It is possible that they are just not reported, but it is more likely that there are fewer of them now.

[26] Liu Guopeng, “2013 nian Zhongguo tianzhujiao xianzhuang ji fenxi 2013 年中国天主教现状及分析 [Analysis on the Status of China’s Catholic Church in 2013],” in Zhongguo zongjiao baogao (2014)  中国宗教报告(2014)[Annual Report on Religions in China in 2014], ed. Qiu Yonghui (Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, 2015), 117–27.       

[27] Fuk-Tsang Ying, “The CPC XE "CPC" ’s Policy on Protestant Christianity, 1949–1957: An Overview and Assessment,” Journal of Contemporary China, 23, no. 89 (2014): 13.

[28] For more on the history of the issues, see Paul P. Mariani, Church Militant: Bishop Kung and Catholic Resistance in Communist Shanghai (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2011), 223–24.

[29] Shun-hing Chan, “Jidu zongjiao zai Xianggang gongmin shehui jiangou zhong de juese基督宗教在香港公民社会建构中的角色 [The Role of the Christian Church in Building Civil Society XE "civil society"  in Hong Kong], in Gongmin shehui: Zhongguo dalu yu Gang Ao Tai公民社会 XE "公民社会" :中国大陆与港澳台 [Civil Society: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan], ed. Hao Zhidong (Singapore and Macao: World Scientific Press and the University of Macau, 2013), 226–27.

[30] UCA News, “Zongjiao jie  shengming fan xiu minfa hui hunyin jiating, Daojiao bu paichu wei lifayuan 宗教界声明反修民法毁婚姻家庭,道教不排除围立法院 [Various Religious Groups Declare Their Position against the Legislation That May Destroy Marriage and Family, and the Daoist Groups Say They Might Surround the Legislative Yuan in Protest] XE "protest" ,” UCAN news, http://china.ucanews.com/2016/12/01/, accessed December 2, 2016.

[31] Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival.”

[32] Tang Xiaofeng and Duan Qi, “2013 nian Zhongguojidujao gaikuang ji jidujiao de minjianhua baogao ,” 100.

[33] Li Xiangping, “‘Shetuan’ yu ‘faren’de shuangchong jiangou.”

[34] Wei and Wang, “Yindao yu shiying,” 325.

[35] Wei and Wang, “Yindao yu shiying,“ 326.

[36] John S.T. Chu and volunteers (ed.), 2013 nian Taiwan jidujiaohui jiaoshi baogao  ,” 1. 

[37] Zhidong Hao, Shun-hing Chan, Wen-ban Kuo, Yik Fai Tam, and Ming Jing, “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement: Case Studies of the Catholic Church in Hong Kong, Macau, Taipei, and Shanghai,” Review of Religion and Chinese Society 1 (2014): 58.

[38] For information on this paragraph, see Chen Xi, “Mingjing yuekan dujia kanfa zhonggong jiuhao wenjian 明镜月刊独家刊发中共9号文件 [Mirror Monthly Publishes Document No. 9 in Its Totality],” Molihua.org, September 22, 2013, http://www.molihua.org/2013/08/9_7925.html, accessed September 27, 2016; Zhidong Hao and Zhengyang Guo, “Professors as Intellectuals in China: Political Identities and Roles in a Provincial University,” China Quarterly (2016), doi:10.1017/S0305741016001442; Mi Qiang, “Zhongguo gongmin shehui zaoyu ‘handong’ 中国公民社会遭遇‘寒冬’ [China’s Civil Society XE "civil society"  Is Encountering a Bitter Winter], Financial Times, August 21, 2016, http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001069004?full=y/, accessed November 22, 2016; Chris Buckley, “A Tibetan XE "Tibetan"  Tried to Save His Language. China Handed Him 5 Years in Prison,” New York Times, May 22, 2018;  Zhao Sile, “Fuchao: Zhongguo quanli NGO sheng si jie 覆巢:中国权利NGO生死劫 [Overturned Nest: The Life and Death of China’s Rights Advocacy NGOs],” September 19, 2015, https://theinitium.com/article/20150915-mainland-NGO1/, accessed September 27, 2016.

[39] Edward Wong, “China Approves Strict Control of Foreign NGOs,” New York Times, April 28, 2016; Xinhua News, “Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo Jingwai Fei Zhengfu Zuzhi Jingnei Huodong Guanli Fa 中华人民共和国境外非政府组织境内活动管理法 [A Law XE "law"  of the PRC on the Management of Foreign NGOs Working in China],” http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2016-04/29/c_1118765888.htm, accessed November 22, 2016.

[40] Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival.”  

[41] China Aid, “Anhui zhili jiating jiaohui fang’an puguang, ‘sige yipi’ cheng fang’an hexin 安徽治理家庭教会方案曝光 ‘四个一批’成方案核心 [The Way to Deal with House Churches XE "house churches"  in Anhui: Four Key Strategies],” http://www.chinaaid.net/2016/10/blog-post_37.html, accessed November 22, 2016.

[42] Mimi Lau, “China Shuts Leading Underground XE "Underground"  Christian Church, Third This Winter,” South China Morning Post, December 16, 2018,  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2178216/china-shuts-leading-underground XE "underground" -christian-church-third-winter/, accessed July 15, 2019; Ian Johnson, “This Chinese Christian Was Charged with Trying to Subvert the State,” New York Times, March 24, 2019, A9.

[43] UCA News, “Underground XE "Underground"  China Church Faces Demolition,” May 13, 2019, https://www.ucanews.com/news/underground XE "underground" -china-church-faces-demolition XE "demolition" /85168/, accessed July 15, 2019.

[44] For the draft of the religious regulations and the discussion, see Hao Liguan, “2016 nian zongjiao shiwu tiaoli xiuding caoan zuixin song shen gao 2016年宗教事务条例修订草案最新送审稿 [2016 Draft Rules and Regulations Regarding Religious Affairs to Be Approved],” Pincai net, http://www.pincai.com/group/878775.htm, accessed November 22, 2016; Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival.”

[45] Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China XE "Republic of China" , “Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo Xianggang Tebie Xingzhengqu Jiben Fa 中华人民共和国香港特别行政区基本法 [The People’s Republic of China Hong Kong Special Administration Region Basic Law] XE "Basic Law" ,” http://www.gov.cn/test/2005-07/29/content_18298.htm, accessed November 22, 2016.

[46] Government of Macao Special Administrative Region, “Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo Aomen Tebie Xingzhengqu Jiben Fa  中华人民共和国澳门特别行政区基本法 [The People’s Republic of China XE "Republic of China"  Macao Special Administration Region Basic Law] XE "Basic Law" ,” http://bo.io.gov.mo/bo/i/1999/leibasica/index_cn.asp, accessed November 22, 2016.

[47] See Li Guiling, “Taiwan zongjiao 台湾宗教 [Religion in Taiwan],” Po Lin Monastery, http://hk.plm.org.cn/gnews/2009627/2009627135014.html, accessed November 23, 2016.

[48] See, e.g., Madsen’s discussion on the Catholic Church, in Madsen, China’s Catholics, 26–29.

[49] Li Xiangping, “‘Shetuan’ yu ‘faren’de shuangchong jiangou .”

[50] Elisabetta Povoledo and Liam Stack, “People Francis Extends Priests’ Ability to Forgive Abortion,” New York Times, November 21, 2016.

[51] For an analysis of the Vatican XE "Vatican"  II XE "Vatican II"  teachings, see Chan Hon Fai, “Gongmin quanli yu renge zhuyi: Aomen tianzhujiao yu gongmin shehui chutan 公民权利与人格主义:澳门天主教与公民社会初探 [Citizen Rights and Personalism: Macao’s Catholic Church and Civil Society] XE "civil society" ,” in Gongmin shehui: Zhongguo dalu yu Gang Ao Tai 公民社会 XE "公民社会" :中国大陆与港澳台 [Civil Society: Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan], ed. Hao Zhidong (Singapore and Macao: World Scientific Press and the University of Macau, 2013).

[52] Jose Casanova, “2000 Presidential Address: Religion, the New Millennium, and Globalization,” Sociology of Religion 62 (2001).

[53] Michael McCabe, “The Role of the Church in Civil Society: Some Theological Orientations,” Africa Mission, www.africamission-mafr.org/mccabe_gb.doc, accessed November 24, 2016.

[54] Povoledo and Stack, “Pope XE "Pope"   Francis Extends Priests’ Ability to Forgiven Abortion.”

[55] See a summary by Hao Zhidong, “Zongjiao de shehui gongneng yu Zhongguo zongjiao zhengce gaige 宗教的社会功能与中国宗教政策改革 [The Social Function of Religion and the Reform of Religious Policy in China],” Zongjiao yu fazhi  宗教与法治 [Religion and the Rule of Law], no. 8 (2016).

[56] Shun-hing Chan, “Changing Church-State Relations in Contemporary China,” 501.

[57] Nanlai Cao, “Christian Entrepreneurs and the Post-Mao State: An Ethnographic Account of Church-State Relations in China’s Economic Transition,” Sociology of Religion 68, no. 1 (2007): 48, 55.

[58] Cao, “Christian Entrepreneurs and the Post-Mao State,” 56.

[59] Fuk-Tsang Ying, “The CPC XE "CPC" ’s Policy on Protestant Christianity, 1949–1957,” 4.

[60]  Zhidong Hao et al., “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement,” 54.

[61] Mariani, Church Militant, 41–42.

[62] Fuk-Tsang Ying, “The CPC XE "CPC" ’s Policy on Protestant Christianity, 1949–1957,” 6.

[63] Nanlai Cao, “Christian Entrepreneurs and the Post-Mao State.”

[64] Shun-hing Chan, “Changing Church-State Relations in Contemporary China,” 494.

[65] Matt Moir, “China’s Efforts to Mold Christianity in Its Own Image Draw Resistance,” Religion News Service, http://religionnews.com/2016/03/08/chinas-efforts-mold-christianity-in-its-own-image-face-resistance/, accessed November 21, 2016.

[66] See also Zhidong Hao and Yan Liu, “Mutual Accommodation in Church-State Relationship in China?” For more examples of Christian resistance in China under Xi Jinping XE "Xi Jinping" , see also Carsten Vala, “Protestant Resistance and Activism in China’s Official Churches,” in Handbook of Protest and Resistance in China, ed. Teresa Wright (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2019).


[67] Shun-hing Chan, “Jiduzongjiao zai Xianggang gongmin shehui jiangou zhong de juese ,” 226.

[68] Chan, “Jiduzongjiao zai Xianggang,” 226–27, 229–30.

[69] Chan, “Jiduzongjiao zai Xianggang,” 227–28, 230–31.

[70] June Cheng, “How Many Christians Live in Hong Kong.”

[71] Fuk-Tsang Ying, Facebook news, “Yiqun Xianggang jidutu huyu quanguo renda changweihui tingzhi shifa lianshu 一群香港基督徒呼吁全国人大常委会停止释法联署 [A Group of Christians Call on the National People’s Congress XE "People’s Congress" ’s Standing Committee to Stop Legal Interpretation of the Hong Kong Basic Law] XE "Hong Kong Basic Law" ,” November 5, 2016.

[72] UCA News, “Zhongyang shifa zu gangdu yiyuan jiuren, jiaohui renshi zhi shifa cuihui gang fazhi 中央释法阻港独议员就任,教会人士指释法摧毁港法制 [Church People Say That the Central Government’s Interpretation of the Law XE "law"  Is Destroying Hong Kong’s Legal System],” http://china.ucanews.com/2016/11/07/, accessed November 21, 2016.

[73] UCA News, “Xuanshi sifa fuhe xuanpan qianxi, Xianggang zhuli zhujiao dui shifa biao yihan 宣誓司法复核宣判前夕,香港助理主教对释法表遗憾 [Hong Kong Coadjutor Bishop Laments the National People’s Congress XE "People’s Congress" ’s Decision to Interpret the Hong Kong Basic Law XE "Hong Kong Basic Law"  before the Hong Kong Court Can Make a Decision on the Pleading Controversy],”  http://china.ucanews.com/2016/11/16/, accessed November 24, 2016.

[74] Ren Jichun, “Xianggang zongjiao de shehui diwei he zuoyong qianxi 香港宗教的社会地位和作用浅析 [A Brief Analysis of the Status and Roles of Religion in Hong Kong],” Zongjiao yu shijie 宗教与世界 [Religion and the World],  no. 1 (2005), reprinted at Po Lin Monastery, http://hk.plm.org.cn/gnews/2009522/2009522128249.html, accessed November 24, 2016.

[75] For a discussion of the Macao case, see Chan Hong Fai, “Gongmin quanli yu renge zhuyi XE "civil society" ,” 213; Zhidong Hao, Macau History and Society (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press and the University of Macau, 2011), 129–30.

[76] Chiu Hei Yuan, “Taiwan de zongjiao bianqian, zhengzhi minzhuhua yu gongmin shehui 台湾的宗教变迁、政治民主化与公民社会 [Taiwan’s Religious Transformation, Political Democratization XE "democratization" , and Civil Society] XE "civil society" ,” in Gongmin shehui, ed. Hao, 236–38.

[77] Lin Pen Hsuan, “Taiwan de zongjiaoxingzheng yu zongjiao lifa wenti”; LiGuiling, “Taiwan zongjiao.”

[78] UCA News, “Taiwan jidutu zai zongtongfu qian gaohan ‘hunyin jiating, quanmin jueding’ 台湾基督徒在总统府前高喊‘婚姻家庭,全民决定’ [Taiwan Christians Shout in Front of the Presidential Palace: ‘Marriage and Family Issues Should Be Decided by a Referendum’ XE "referendum" ],” http://www.ccccn.org/haiwai/2016-11-16/56478.html, November 16, 2016.

[79] Liu Guopeng, “2013 nian Zhongguo tianzhujiao xianzhuang ji fenxi”119–20.

[80] Tang Xiaofeng and Duan Qi, “2013 nian Zhongguo jidujao gaikuang ji jidujiao de minjianhua baogao ,” 100.

[81] Duan Qi, “2014 nian Zhongguo jidujiao guanzhudian  2014年中国基督教关注点 [2013 Development of the Protestant Church],” in Zhongguo zongjiao baogao (2015) 中国宗教报告(2015)[Annual Report on Religions in China in 2015], ed. Qiu Yonghui (Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, 2016), 123–26.

[82] Duan Qi, “2014 nian Zhongguo jidujiao Guanzhudian,” 126–32.

[83] Nanlai Cao, “Christian Entrepreneurs and the Post-Mao State,” 56–57, 61.

[84] Fan Junming, “Jidujao dui Zhongguo jindai jiaoyu de yingxiang: Yi jiaohui xuexiao fazhan wei qisi 基督教对中国近代教育的影响:以教会学校发展为启思 [The Impact of Christianity on Modern Chinese Education: The Case of the Development of Religious Schools]” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University, October 29–30, 2016), 217.

[85] Han Yuexiang, “Fansi jindai Zhongguo fei jidujiao yundong shouhui jiaoyuquan yundong zhi liju反思近代中国非基督教运动收回教育权运动之理据 [Reflections on the Reasons that the Chinese Anti-Christian Movement Wanted to Take Back the Right to Educate Chinese]” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University,  October 29–30, 2016), 237.

[86] Wang Shuofeng, “Zaoqi jidujiao zai Shaanxi banxue qingkuang jiqi jiaoyu linian he yingxiang: Yi Xi’an shi sanzhong qianshen ‘zunde zhongxue’ wei li早期基督教在陕西办学情况及其教育理念和影响:以西安市三中前身‘尊德中学’为例 [The Christian Church’s Educational Efforts in Shaanxi in Earlier Days and Their Educational Thoughts and Impacts: The Case of Zunde Middle School, Currently the Third Middle School in Xi’an City]” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University, October 29–30, 2016), 203–13.

[87] Jennifer Bond, “Foreign Puppets, Christian Mothers or Revolutionary Martyrs? The Multiple Identities of Missionary School Students in Zhejiang, 1923–1949” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University, October 29–30, 2016), 284–322.

[88] Zhang Xiaoyi, “Xuhui zhongxue ‘chongsilou’ shejizhe Ye Zhaochang yu Tushanwan yuedui 徐汇中学‘崇思楼’设计者叶肇昌与土山湾乐队 [Ye Zhaochang, the Designer of Chongsi building and the Tushanwan Band]” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University,  October 29–30, 2016), 74–81.

[89] Gao Shining and He Guanghu, “Dangjin Zhongguo jidujiao de zhuyao wenti yu jiejue shexiang当今中国基督教的主要问题与解决设想 [The Main Problems with Christianity in China and Their Solutions],” a research report they presented to the CCP XE "CCP"  United Front Department, published in 2011. The data were from a number of sources according to their references. Available at Baidu wenku, https://wenku.baidu.com/view/0055f20a48d7c1c708a14598.html, accessed July 16, 2019.

[90] I’d like to thank Debra Soled, one of the editors of the chapter, for the points made in this paragraph, which further strengthened my point.

[91] June Cheng, “How Many Christians Live in Hong Kong”; RenJichun, “Xianggang zongjiao de shehui diwei he zuoyong qianxi  .”

[92] Ren Jichun, “Xianggang zongjiaode shehui diwei he zuoyong qianxi.”

[93] Hong Kong government, “Xianggang bianlan.”

[94] Macau Catholic Diocese XE "Diocese" , 2012 nian Tianzhujiao shouce 2012年天主教手册 [Handbook of the Catholic Church in Macau]. The numbers are based on the telephone and fax number section of the handbook, published by the Macau Catholic Church XE "Macau Catholic Church" .

[95] LiGuiling, “Taiwan zongjiao.”

[96] The Shilin Church of Jesus XE "Jesus"  the King website, http://www.catholic.org.tw/shilin/CatholicProfile.html, accessed November 27, 2016.

[97] The numbers are calculated from Fu Ren University’s website on the 2016 meeting organized by Tianzhujiao xuexiao xiaowu fazhan xiehui 天主教学校校务发展协会 [The Catholic Church Association for the Development of School Affairs] regarding Catholic schools in Taiwan, http://www.educ.fju.edu.tw/conference/2016/link.html, accessed November 27, 2016.

[98] Zhidong Hao et al., “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement,” 63.

[99] Hao et al., “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement,” 63.

[100] Hao et al. “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement,” 67.

[101] I thank a reviewer for pointing this out.

[102] See Hao et al. “Catholicism and Its Civic Engagement.”

[103] Cited in Johnson, “China Seeks Tighter Grip in Wake of a Religious Revival.”

[104] UCA News, “Aomen shehui fuza duobian, qingnian xinyang mianlin tiaozhan  澳门社会复杂多变,青年信仰面临挑战 [Macao Society Is Changing and Youth Belief Is Facing Challenges],” http://china.ucanews.com, accessed July 5, 2013.

[105] Zhidong Hao, “Jiaoshou jiepin yu xueshu ziyou: Cong Aomen liangwei jiaoshou bei jiepin de shijian tanqi 教授解聘与学术自由: 从澳门两位教授被解聘的事件谈起 [Professors’ Dismissal and Academic Freedom: On the Sacking of Two Professors in Macau],” Financial Times 中文网 [The Chinese News Website of the Financial Times], November 25, 2014.

[106] Macau Daily, “Xue Xiaofeng san xiwang yu ai guo ai ao youcai 薛晓峰三希望育爱国爱澳优才 [Xue Xiaofeng Hopes That the Catholic Schools Will Raise Students Who Love China and Love Macau],” http://www.macaodaily.com/html/2016-12/01/content_1140195.htm, accessed December 1, 2016. See also Zhidong Hao, “Aomen jiaohui xuexiao zai Aomen shehui fazhan zhong de zuoyong: Zhongdeng jiaoyu zhong jiaohui yu fei jiaohui xuexiao de duibi yanjiu 澳门教会学校在澳门社会发展中的作用:中等教育中教会与非教会学校的对比研究 [The Role of the Religious Schools in Macau’s Social Development: A Comparative Study of Religious and Non-Religious Schools in Middle School Education]” (paper presented at the conference on Christianity and education in modern China, Shanghai University, October 29–30, 2016), 82–91.

[107] Chen-Fang Lan 蓝振芳, “Chuangxin shidai de jiaoyu 创新时代的教育 [The Education in an Era of Innovation]” (paper presented at a symposium on leadership training organized by the association for development of Catholic schools, October 12–13, 2016).

来源时间:2021/4/19   发布时间:2021/4/19

旧文章ID:24814

美国华人历史、现在、及未来

作者:郭晓松  来源:新大米社区

美国华人广义指具有华人血统的美国籍公民、永久居民或住民。他们的人数至2015年有约452万人,占总人口的1.2%,占亚裔美国人口的23.3%,美国总人口的1.2%,高于其他亚裔在美国所占的比例,其中自称“台湾人”的为17万。他们大多数居住在大都会地区。

过去200年来,美藉华人曾受歧视,著名的《排华法案》直到1943年才被废止。加利福尼亚州议会于2009年、美国参议院于2011年,正式向美国华人为历史的排华法案道歉。加州议员赵美心在推动道歉法案上有重要贡献。

美国华人历史

在历史上中国人到美国有两个移民潮:

第一波从1820年代到1880年代

第一波从1820年代到1880年代,直到联邦法律限制中国移民才停止。记录显示,这期间近30万名中国移民进入美国,尽管历史学家估计多达一半最终回到中国。当时北美西岸在加州淘金潮期间得以迅速开发;同时由于太平天国运动,中国南方政治与经济动荡不安,又有鸦片战争之外患,许多贫困、操粤语台山话和粤语广州话(即标准粤语)的华人移民从珠三角来到美国修建铁路。他们不愿再忍受家乡贫困的生活景况,情愿为预付金签下往美国长期劳动的合同。许多人把挣来的钱全寄回家,不再期望能活着回家。他们的实况就有如“卖猪仔”。1868年美国和大清政府签订《中美天津条约续增条约》(又称《蒲安臣条约》),其第五条款规定华人愿常住美国或入籍,皆须听其自由不得禁阻。此条约为美国来华招揽大量华工开方便之门。

1877年美国加州经济转入低迷,出现第一次排华浪潮。1880年美国与清廷签订《北京条约》,其中第一条款规定限制华人到美的人数和年限。1882年,美国通过《排华法案》禁止中国移民。许多西部州也开始生效了一些有种族歧视的法律,使得中国和日本移民很难拥有自己的土地或者找到工作。这些法律直到1950年代民权运动开始时才被废止。加利福尼亚州议会于2009年、美国参议院于2011年,正式向美国华人为历史的排华法案道歉。加州议员赵美心在推动道歉法案上有重要贡献。

这段时间华人总人数不算多,但是依然给美国社会留下了印记,并且也为以后的华人移民进行了先行的探索和奠定了基础。

第二波移民潮从1950年代末到现在

美国移民法解禁之后,大量台湾留学生到美国求学,其中一部分毕业后留在当地工作而成为移民,成为台湾裔美国人。自1965年起,美国移民局对华裔移民分别予以中国大陆、英属香港和台湾出生不同的配额。1970年代,台湾经济渐趋发达,故台湾裔美国人于1970年代末开始减少。1977年中国大陆开始送学生往美国,此类移民在1980年代越来越多。这群华人倾向集中在市郊地区,并且远离市区的唐人街。这些华人说普通话和家乡的方言。这段时间中国移民总数量约为290万,在墨西哥和硬度移民之后排第三位,其中约60%的人已经加入美国国籍,近期这一比例下降到50%左右。2016年中国移民为15万,为最多来源国。

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从上图的美国华人总人数的变化可以看出,第一波移民潮的总人数少得多,近40年才是华人移民美国的最高峰,时间上说也非常短。从这40年来美国华人及美国华人社区发展来看,美国华人取得了很多的进展,在各个领域都取得了进展,在政治领域也渐渐觉醒,将来华人在美国的重要性和地位的进一步提高还是很值得期待。

这也是中国开放国门走向世界的40年,到2014年为止已累计有180万华人留学后回归中国,占总出国人数的74.48%(除去仍在求学中的人数)。2014年的回归率已经达到了80%,其中6%具有博士学历,63%具有硕士学历,30%具有大学及专科学历。

美国华人现状

美国华人人口

根据2010年的人口调查为基础,2015年用抽样、模拟、统计的方法预测的美国华人及中国在美常驻人口约为:

美国公民:370万,其中170万为ABC,200万为第一代移民。

中国公民美国绿卡:110万

中国公民工作签证:10万

中国公民学生签证:35万

今年来,中国留学生数目增加很快,尤其是本科生及中学生。但由于美国的签证及绿卡政策,他们毕业后大多会回国工作。

华人获得美国绿卡的途径和状况

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2015年15万华人获得美国绿卡,其中家庭(美国公民的成年子女及兄弟姐妹、绿卡的配偶及子女)和美国公民直系亲属(配偶、未成年子女、父母)获得的绿卡占52%;政治庇护的占了19%,大概华人每5个就有1个是通过政治庇护获得绿卡;而就业相关的绿卡只占28%,约为4.2万。华人留学生通过就业相关的方式获得绿卡的比率比较低,总体低于20%,最高学位是本科的留学生则更低。

华人的分布和特点

华人移民的聚居区主要在工作机会比较多的大都会区域,纽约、旧金山、洛杉矶、波士顿、华盛顿、芝加哥、西雅图、德州三角区,这些区域包含了165万中国移民,占中国移民的57%。不过随着越来越多的华人对美国越来越熟悉,分布越来越广泛,常常伴随着经济增长点变化而变化。

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圈的大小表示区域华人移民总人口数目多少

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图中表示郡为单位的华人移民统计,比较集中在一些区域

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实际上华盛顿已经变成除了纽约和加州外,华人移民最集中的都会地区。

上面资料不包括ABC,ABC一般分布较广泛一些。下面是全部华人按州的统计数目。

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和出生在他国的在美居民和美国本土出生人士相比较,中国移民往往有更高的受教育程度。2013年,47%的中国移民(25和25岁以上)拥有学士学位或更高的学位,而所有移民中只能有28%,美国本土出生的人中只有30%。

和出生在他国的在美居民和美国本土出生人士相比较,中国移民年龄偏大。中国移民的中位年龄是45岁,出生在他国的在美居民中位年龄是43,美国本土出生人士中位年龄是36。在2013年,76%的中国移民在工作年龄内(18 – 64),17%的人年龄在65岁以上,18岁以下的占7%。相比之下,美国所有外来移民中80%的人在工作年龄内,14%是65岁以上的,6%在18岁以下。与此同时, 美国本土出生人士有60%在工作年龄内,14%是65岁以上的,26%是18岁以下。与其他两组人相比,中国移民更有可能从事管理、商业、科学和艺术职业(51%)。

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美国华人文化及思想体系现状

美国社会的现状

根据美国2010年人口普查:

白人: 70.96%

黑人: 12.85%

伊比利裔和拉丁美洲裔白人:约9%

亚洲人:4.43%

美国印第安人: 0.9%

夏威夷与其他太平洋岛屿原住民:0.18%

混血及其他人种:9.1%

基督教:76%

新教: 51.3%

天主教: 23.9%

其他的基督徒:3.3%

犹太教:1.7%

东正教:1.6%

佛教:0.7%

伊斯兰教:0.6%

其他家教:1.2%

无宗教信仰:16.1%

华盛顿智库的移民报告显示,1970年时,每21个美国居民中就有1人为移民;1980年代达1/16;1990年代达1/13;而如今快达到惊人的1/7。自2000年至今,美国共迎来了2000多万名移民,其中有超过一半的人(1000万)一开始是以非法移民进入。目前拉丁裔人口增长最快,因为非法移民和生育率高。亚裔,尤其是华裔人口增长也快,但是由于移民的配额限制以及生育率低,增长还是很有限。

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美国人口成分决定了在美国经济情况还好时,政府可以用税收补给贫困人口;但是经济情况变差时,种族问题就会爆发出来,很多富裕并且不能保护自己的少数族裔很可能成为替罪羊。就目前状况来说,少数族裔需要认真考虑这一问题,尤其是华裔。因为一旦出了问题,所有华裔是被当作同一类人来看待和对待的。如果我们不能尽快地体系化地建立保护自己的机制,我们的利益将会被不断地侵蚀及受到更多隐性或公开的歧视。

华人移民的文化和思想体系

说到犹太人的文化,我们可以说他们大多都信奉犹太教,从小就开始每周末都去教堂,学习犹太文化,有着犹太人的传统文化和思想体系等。经过长期的侵染和培训,他们大多有着共同的文化及思想体系,这潜移默化地深刻影响着犹太人的一生。

但是说到美国华人的文化,我们很难说的清楚我们到底是什么样的文化状况和思想体系。儒家?佛教?道教?基督教?伊斯兰教?中国文化?西方文化?美国文化?或许每一种都有一些人,或者每一种都信一点点。这种状况,好处是百花齐放,坏处是比较散乱。

目前华人社区最活跃的组织是校友会、同乡会、专业协会、中文学校等,这些组织是天然的、浅层次的纽带,它们本身不具有提供完备思想体系的能力,他们的成员/领导者有着千差万别的不同的思想体系、价值观等等,但目前也的的确确是他们在辛勤付出地去领导和推动华人社区的发展。这样的状况注定了我们华人及华人社区在复杂状况下,很难进行高难度的协作和发展。我们很难象犹太人一样,去布局整个美国社会,逐步掌控美利坚钱袋、新闻传媒、政治等重要位置,影响华盛顿的决策等等。

把这个当作背景,当我们回顾日前华人的运动和发展,就不难明白为什么会有那么多的纷争和矛盾,甚至对立。从历史的发展和教训的宏观来看,这真不是一个很好的状态。

ABC犹如泥入大海

ABC是华人的未来,华人移民都会老去,最终消失,但是ABC是代代繁衍下去的,他们的未来决定了美国华人的未来。

作为一类人,他们是怎么样的呢?先看一组数据:

44%美国出生的华人可用中文沟通

36%认为自己是典型的美国人

39%18岁以上华人能说流利的英语

结婚对象:65%华人,9%非华人的亚裔,26%非亚裔

57%华人认为比父母同样年纪时过得好

大多数ABC都自认是美国人,他们可能会说国语,但大多没有中国文化和思想体系的熏陶,也没有一个属于ABC的独特的文化和思想体系,因此ABC自身是不能形成力量的,最多也就是一个个的ABC玩伴小圈子。而由于没有中国文化和思想体系,他们和华人移民的圈子也很难靠拢。可以说目前ABC的状况就是泥入大海,被溶解掉了,这急需华人社区的重视,及想出好的办法解决。

关于美国华人将来的考虑

“信仰让很多选择变得简单”

这是德国总理默克尔说过一句话。

这里信仰可以换成道德、使命、愿景、价值观等等,或者统一说就是完备的思想体系,都可以成立。

这些词听起来这些好像都比较虚,但是它们却有着非常实际和有价值的用处。对于个体,它可以给我们思想的力量,在遇到问题时可以利用思想力量、系统化的方法去解决问题。在复杂的情况下,完备的思想体系可以让很多选择变得简单,让每一件小事变得有意义,人们的行为方式更加可以预计,道德体系容易建立,人们之间的信任可以更好地扩展,社会协作可以更好地建立。

简而言之,完备的思想体系让个体变得强大的同时,也让群体协作变得容易建立和扩展。可以说它就是我们的选择之锚,它不能让我们每次做选择时都是正确的,但是它让我们每次选择时成本低、效率高、无大错、可积累。只要把时间放长远看,它就会让我们有更大的概率能“赢”。越是不确定性(复杂)的时代,这个选择之锚就越发重要。

犹太教、基督教、伊斯兰教的产生和发展把上面的原理表现的淋漓尽致。它们都通过它建立起一个庞大的有效的协作体系,来对抗处于四战之地的危险境况。可以说圣经及相关宗教是人类伟大的发明,它把同一族裔的陌生人,甚至是不同种族的人们,从思想上连接起来,在信仰群体内部实现和平,同时以群体力量来对抗外敌,某种程度上引领了群体内部走向了更高的文明层次。

历史中,中国和这些区域形式上有一些不同。中国地形决定了不会受到其他区域的大型文明的入侵,并且中国很早进入农耕文明,人口大爆发,从而在任何时期都能保持对区域内少数民族的人口对比的优势,这也是中华文明没有断代的重要原因。所以历史上中华文明的主要方向是解决内部矛盾。建立皇权,并且“罢黜百家,独尊儒术”,可能就是一个深思熟虑后,对战国撕战惨状的一个解决方案。

所以,信仰、思想体系等真的很重要,不仅对个体,而且对群体,国家都是。我们华人需要建立起完备的思想体系,这不仅会使我们个体强大,也会使我们群体变得强大。而如果我们没有完备的思想体系,当我们面对有思想体系的对手时,那么必败无疑。

文化信仰在现今社会的力量

有些文化信仰表面上是一种迷信,例如宗教,但是实质上它在社会中的作用是建立协作体系的桥梁。它的起始和发展也具有人群特殊性,是一种历史沉淀的产物,包含着地域、社会、生产力等等因素,它也通过文化和历史融入到一个民族的血液中去了。它是一个社会微观协作的基础。

记得以前有人统计过,基督教国家比天主教国家富强具有统计上的显著性。逻辑也很好理解,基督教是改革过的天主教,他让人们在微观上的协作方式变得更科学,因此在宏观上国家就会更加富强。而美国76%的人信奉基督教(包括天主教等),这是一个国家和社会稳定的微观因素,很难想象没有这个基础,美国社会的道德风气会变成什么样,微观协作也更难形成。

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全世界1400万犹太人中,有680万在美国,而在以色列国的犹太人只有460万。依靠上身美国,控制美国,进而控制世界,犹太人可算是世界民族最为成功的民族。这里面的一条暗线就是犹太人的严格信仰和民族认同,它保证了在失国千年之后,犹太人又在故土复国了,它保证了在美国这一自由的土壤上犹太人再次发芽茁壮成长。

所以信仰和民族认同的实质是什么?他其实是一种大家共同遵守的规则,一种完备的思想体系,一个可以共同奋斗的目标。在这个共识之下,大家行为有章可循,完备的思想体系使得大家可以智慧地去解决任何已知或未知的问题,共同目标使得大家可以共同向一个方向用力。

中华文化是中国人的历史选择和历史财富,抛弃中华文化后,我们很难再找到一个能让十几亿华人共同协作起来的好方法。所以对于华人来说,我们天然的微观协作基础是中华文化。我们不能全盘抛弃中华文化,而需要在中华文化的大花园里,发掘或创造出适应现今社会的文化和思想体系。有段时间流行弟子规,也就是社会对微观协作基础需求的体现。当然弟子规有一定的局限性,我们需要并且也能发展出更好的微观协作基础。

华人移民应该努力建设“新的中华文化”

文化是智慧的结晶,它体现的是智慧对社会稳定及发展的一种辅助解决方案。文化是变化的,它也有时效性,不合适的文化会被新的文化所取代。历史上中华文化也是不断变化的。

中国近代被侵略,直观上讲是明朝和清朝的闭关锁国,造成了中国和其他文明之间形成了巨大的科技生产力的代差。但也是朱元璋及明朝、和清朝利用皇权巨大力量,对中华文化的摧残,使得中华文化面目全非,从而文化思想也落后了。

对于新时代,海外华人需要发挥智慧,建立新的中国文化,并以此为微观协作基础。进而以此去建立属于我们华人的有特色的思想体系,让我们每个人都拥有思想的武器。这样我们才可能象犹太人一样去做更高层次的协作。我们有这样智慧结晶的宝藏,我们需要好好发掘并且勇敢创新。

ABC的中华文化教育刻不容缓

ABC的中华文化的教育成为上一代华人给下一代华人的礼物,让这一智慧结晶能够传承下去,并且成为他们立世的强大的思想武器。

目前针对ABC的教育有众多的中文学校,但是它们的水平参差不齐,教育重点也是凌乱不堪,中华文化的核心及优秀之处更是很少涉及。这样不仅ABC小朋友学不到好的东西,还会让他们产生厌恶的情绪。

所以华人社区要好好考虑怎么去把教育新的中国文化水平大幅的提高。这是我们必须要做的。

同时,也应该开始针对华人家长的中国文化课,让一生中大多数时间在学数理化的家长们也提高一下。这样整个家庭才能更好的提高。

华人参与美国政治的考虑

由于华人占美国人口比例很少,大概只有1.5%,所以靠选票本身是很难有很大的影响力。所以前面挺希和挺川的对立是没有实际意义的。希拉里和川普也不会因此而对华人群体有任何回报。前不久川普和习总的会面也说明了,世界是靠实力说话的。只有你有实力,才会被尊重。

那么华人应该怎么参与美国政治?

号召华人更多关心政治和参与政治是必须坚持下去的,但是华人社区的工作重心应该放在更重要的事上。

犹太人布局整个美国社会,逐步掌控美利坚钱袋、新闻传媒、政治等重要位置,影响华盛顿的决策。这些都是高层次的协作,就目前华人社区的基本情况来说,是很难做到的,但是这也是华人想获得应有的权益必须努力去做的。所以华人社区的工作重点应该放在怎么去提高华人群体的协作上来,而不是相互攻击、互相拆台地去争斗,发展粉丝等等。

目前世界处于一个开放的时代,美国也是最自由的土地之一,在这里我们可以充分地去发挥。作为世界上最为智慧的人群之一应该想一想怎么去利用已有的各种不同文化优秀之处为基础,综合和创造出新文化、新思想体系。而不是简单粗暴地借用或依附于其他之上。不然就可能像邯郸学步一样,最后是爬在地上。

路漫漫兮其修远,我们的征途是星辰大海!每一个同胞都是征途战友,需要相互共勉。

来源时间:2021/4/18   发布时间:2017/4/18

旧文章ID:24813

外交部副部长乐玉成 接受美联社专访实录

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作者:  来源:外交部网站

2021年4月16日,外交部副部长乐玉成接受美联社大中华区新闻总监森次健(Ken Teizo Moritsugu)专访,以下为文字实录:

森:非常感谢您百忙中接受美联社的专访。我们都知道,现在对中国和美中关系来说正值关键时期,我们的观众和我本人都非常期待听到您如何评价21世纪的美中关系。

乐:很高兴接受你的采访。世界正处在百年未有之大变局,中美作为世界上两个最大的经济体,如何相处事关重大,必须要处理好这对重要的大国关系。拜登政府执政以来,中美之间出现一些积极互动。两国元首除夕通话,互致新春祝福,还长时间讨论了双边关系,为两国关系发展指明了方向。上个月安克雷奇对话虽然开场白有点出乎大家意料,但总体是建设性的、有益的。双方工作层正就落实对话共识和成果积极开展工作。这说明中美对话总比对抗好,对话可以增进相互了解和信任,为合作创造条件。如果不对话,一切无从谈起。

美方将中国视为“最严峻的竞争者”,并以竞争、合作、对抗来定义中美关系,我们对此并不赞同。美方过于突出两国关系中的竞争和对抗因素,对合作则轻描淡写,这种做法未免太消极,缺乏进取精神。中美两个大国之间竞争难以避免,但我们主张竞争应该是你追我赶的良性竞争,而不是你死我活的恶性竞争。作为对世界负有特殊责任的两个大国,中美要全力避免对抗,尤其要避免人为制造对抗。我们还应该尽可能扩大合作,因为双方都能从合作中受益。我们常说,中美合则两利,斗则俱伤。当然,合作应该是平等的、互惠的,而不是单方面提要求、拉单子。英文中“CO”这个前缀是共同的意思,不是单方面想合作就合作,于我有利的就干,于我不利的就不干。

森:您是否有直接对拜登政府讲的话?拜登政府执政将近100天,人们对其执政理念和风格有了更多了解。您如何评价拜登政府的对华政策,在哪些问题上中美可以开展合作?

乐:今年是基辛格博士秘密访华50周年。50年来,中美关系取得的成就超过任何预言家的想象,给两国人民带来巨大福祉。中美交往历史给我们的重要启示,就是中美虽然社会制度不同,但完全可以和平共处、互利合作、共同进步。遗憾的是,现在美国国内有一种不良风气,就是比赛谁对华更强硬,而且把它作为“政治正确”。有些美国人不承认14亿中国人民有追求美好生活的权利,不接受中国走自己的中国特色社会主义道路。这很危险,会把中美关系带入歧途,把世界引向灾难,此风不可长!我们不能太短视,而要放眼长远,审时度势,牢牢把握和平、合作的大方向,秉持不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的精神,确保中美关系健康稳定发展。中美在一些具体问题上正进行合作,例如为对方常驻本国的外交人员接种新冠肺炎疫苗作出互惠安排。这两天美国总统气候问题特使克里正在中国访问,商谈合作应对气候变化问题,这些都是积极的、应予鼓励的合作。

森:您提到了克里访问上海,我们都很想知道他们谈了些什么,因为会谈都是闭门进行的。您能否透露他们具体谈了什么内容?气候变化被视为美中可进行合作的领域,但我们也听到拜登政府有些强硬表态,希望中国在气变问题上做更多。下周美国将主办气候变化峰会,美方希望中国在气变问题上作出更多承诺,您是否能就这些问题谈谈自己的看法?

乐:中美两国气候问题特使正在上海进行磋商,明天会发布相关消息。中美在应对气候变化方面有过密切合作。奥巴马政府时期,两国曾共同发表有关气候变化的三个联合声明和一个合作文件,为推动达成《巴黎协定》作出重要贡献。后来特朗普政府退出了协定,严重干扰国际社会应对气候变化的努力。现在拜登总统宣布美国回来了,我们表示欢迎。回来了就要留下来,并要加倍努力弥补过去“退群”造成的损失。我们期待美方在气变方面做出更大努力。中方已经收到拜登总统给习近平主席发来的与会邀请,正在积极研究。中方将在会上发出积极的信号、合作的信号、负责任的信号。因为应对气候变化不是别人要我们做,而是我们自己要做。

在习近平主席提出的“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念引领下,中国生态文明建设取得显著成就。你们应该也看到了,中国比过去天更蓝、山更绿、水更清,老百姓更满意了。同时,我们非常重视应对气候变化的国际合作。去年9月,习近平主席宣布中国将力争于2030年前实现“碳达峰”、2060年前实现“碳中和”的自主贡献目标。这对于一个14亿人口的发展中大国来说很不容易。有些国家要求我们把时限再提前,这不现实。中国与美国、欧洲等发达国家在应对气变方面处于不同阶段,就好比中国还是小学生,美国和有关发达国家已经是中学生了,现在要求小学生和中学生同时毕业,这是拔苗助长嘛。发达国家从碳达峰到碳中和大体需要50至60年,而中国将力争30年,已经很了不起了。中国将继续秉持共同但有区别的责任原则,为全球减排行动作出更大贡献。如果你认真看看中国的“十四五”规划,就会发现其中增加的相关约束性指标突出了碳达峰导向。我们会说到做到,全力争取如期实现既定目标。

森:您提到美方应加强努力,弥补退群造成的伤害,您有什么具体建议吗?

乐:美国至少有一件事可以做,在应对气变方面为发展中国家提供更多资金和技术支持,帮助发展中国家实现能源转型,真正发挥示范作用,而不是一味指责、甩锅中国。

森:下面我想转到人权问题。在这个问题上,美中之间分歧很大。我们也听到,拜登政府在涉及新疆、香港方面有很多声音,美中之间也有很多言论交锋。这个问题看起来很难处理,美中将如何弥合分歧?双方在这个问题上的分歧是否会影响到其他双边问题的进展?

乐:中美处于不同发展阶段,两国历史文化背景不同,在人权问题上有分歧是正常的。但关键是不能把分歧点变成冲突点,更不能以人权为借口干涉他国内政。不要在人权问题上好为人师,当教师爷。人权的内涵很丰富,不同国家、不同族群有不同的人权诉求。对于叙利亚、利比亚的难民,他们对人权的诉求是要生存,要工作,有饭吃。即使在美国,不同的族群也有不同诉求。被警察“跪杀”的弗洛伊德的诉求就是要能呼吸,广大非洲裔美国人的诉求是“黑人的命也是命”,受到不公正对待甚至暴力威胁的美国亚裔的诉求是免于伤害、恐惧和歧视。

人权有一定的普遍性,但具体到不同国家会有不同的人权实践。就拿抗击疫情来说,国际公认有效的抗疫做法是要戴口罩、保持社交距离、隔离14天。但是有的人就是不愿戴口罩,也不愿保持社交距离,照样聚集聚会,隔离也就象征性的3天、5天。中国政府坚持生命至上的理念,将1100万人的城市武汉封了76天,当时还有人指责我们违反人权、限制自由,事实证明我们恰恰是保护了人权。但我们并没有把我们的做法强加于别的国家。既然有人愿意以生命为代价,甚至以死亡几万、几十万人的代价来维护其不戴口罩的权利,维护其所谓自由与人权价值观,那我们也无话可说。回到你刚才的问题,避免因人权分歧影响合作的最好办法就是相互尊重、平等对话、互不干涉。

今年是“阿拉伯之春”十周年。当年美国就是以“人权高于主权”的口号对叙利亚、利比亚等国进行干预,被称为“阿拉伯之春”。但是现在十年过去了,“春天”在哪里?看看那里多少人饥寒交迫,多少人无家可归,战乱使他们失去了可以发展的十年。而那些实施干预的人他们真的是为了保护这些国家的人权吗?他们制造的是人权灾难!这个教训很深刻。现在没有人再说“阿拉伯之春”了,因为结果我们看不到“春天”,有的只是战乱、饥饿和难民。我们不能让这种悲剧重演。

森:下面问新疆问题。这个问题好像成了中国和西方国家一个很严重的分歧点。去年,美国对6家新疆企业实施了制裁,对新疆的棉花和番茄出口也进行了制裁。想问您这些制裁对新疆的企业和出口有何影响?

乐:问题的关键不是“制裁的影响”,而是“制裁的原因和动机”。美欧一些国家制裁新疆企业所谓的“理由”就是“强迫劳动”,甚至还说“种族灭绝”。但是,证据在哪里?谁裁定的?他们的做法是先扣帽子,认定有“强迫劳动”“种族灭绝”,然后发起制裁,然后再向我们提出要去新疆调查、找证据,这不是典型的有罪推定吗?

实际上,对于“强迫劳动”,美国人可能更熟悉。因为“强迫劳动”是奴隶制产物,美欧国家有数百年贩卖、虐待和歧视黑奴的历史。当年的黑奴被强迫劳动,他们没有人身自由,没有任何权益,也不能享受自己的劳动成果。但是新疆的劳动者是自由的,他们自愿签订劳动合同,权益得到保障,享有自己的劳动成果。而且,在新疆,摘棉花是一个高收入工作,好多人争先恐后报名参加。更何况新疆全区棉花机播率达到100%、机采率达到70%,不可能存在强迫劳动的现象。近日,瑞士良好棉花发展协会(BCI)上海代表处发表声明称,按照BCI的审核原则,新疆没有发现一例强迫劳动现象。

被制裁的新疆企业都是合法注册、合规经营,企业员工都对工作非常满意。制裁显然损害了这些企业的利益,也损害了新疆老百姓的利益,而且一定程度上影响了棉花等产品的全球产业链、供应链稳定。他们口口声声说保护新疆的人权,反对“强迫劳动”,但是他们制裁的结果是破坏了当地人权,并在新疆人为制造“强迫失业”、“强迫贫困”。他们的真实意图根本不是保护人权,而是破坏新疆的稳定,遏制中国的发展。新疆很多棉农都说,“新疆的棉花是白的,但是制造谣言、对中国搞制裁的人的心是黑的”。

我这几年也去过新疆,亲眼看到新疆现在处于历史上发展最好、最稳定、最安定的时期,那里已连续四五年没有发生暴恐袭击案件。当地的百姓都过着幸福的生活。仅2019年新疆就接待中外游客2亿多人次。许多企业纷纷到新疆投资。有稳定才有发展,我觉得这是新疆治理的重大成果。新疆是开放的,我们欢迎大家去看看。近几年已经有100多个国家的1200多位各界人士到新疆参访,亲眼见证了新疆的发展繁荣、民族团结和宗教信仰自由。我听说你下周要去新疆,希望你在那里多走走、多看看,把一个真实的新疆展现给世界。

森:在新疆问题上,中美之间以及中国和西方之间信任非常薄弱。美国越来越不信任中国,觉得中国对信息进行控制。而且似乎联合国也不能无障碍地去新疆参访。刚才您说新疆没有强迫劳动,但如何让世界相信、让美国相信这些信息是真实的?

乐:美国不相信我们说的话,因为它心里有鬼,它搞的是有罪推定。中国外交部、新疆自治区政府已多次举行新闻发布会,介绍新疆的情况,但是他们都不信。他们信什么呢?他们信个别反华分子的“伪报告”,他们信几个东突分子“编故事”,他们信一些西方媒体的“假消息”。假消息害死人。当年,美国凭一袋洗衣粉就入侵伊拉克,用一个摆拍视频就干涉叙利亚,给地区带来深重灾难。他们不信、不听、不报道真相,这就是人们说的“你永远叫不醒一个装睡的人”。

新疆是开放的,大家都可以去。这也是为什么我们邀请外国记者去。但是有些人不敢去。我们邀请一些西方国家的使节访问新疆,他们到现在都还没做出决定。怕什么呢?我们欢迎他们到新疆访问、考察,但是不能来进行所谓的“调查”。就像朋友来家里做客,我们欢迎,但如果到我家来翻箱倒柜,挖地三尺,要找所谓的“犯罪证据”,我当然不欢迎。你也没有这个资格来调查,谁给你这个权力?凡是去过新疆的外国朋友,都对我们的治疆政策予以高度评价,这一点是有目共睹的。这是我们自信的来源——我们做得好,不怕大家去新疆看。

森:我想问关于香港的问题。最近香港选举法有了一些修订,特别是关于立法会的选举。我们也听到一些“民主斗士”正在接受庭审。有人认为香港的民主出现倒退。我想请您介绍一下香港今后的发展前景。我本人也曾经跟一些香港的居民交流,即使是那些不支持上街抗议游行的人,好像也担心20年后的香港会不会变得像中国内地的一座城市。西方的民主和中国共产党的治港模式之间也有某种角力。未来香港会不会变得越来越像中国大陆?

乐:香港是中国的香港,香港同胞是地地道道的中国人。就像香港一首流行歌曲所唱的,“洋装虽然穿在身,我心依然是中国心”,“我的祖先早已把我的一切,烙上中国印”。香港的治理遵循的是中华人民共和国宪法和香港基本法,不是别国的法律。香港是中国的香港,这是改变不了的。

香港模式就是“一国两制”。香港回归24年来,“一国两制”取得巨大成功,但香港一些治理中的问题也逐渐暴露出来,特别是法律制度存在明显缺陷和漏洞,需要进行修改和完善。去年我们颁布了香港国安法,今年修改完善了香港的选举制度,不是要改变“一国两制”,而是要完善“一国两制”,确保“一国两制”行稳致远,确保香港长治久安。20年后的香港只会更稳定、更繁荣,人民生活更幸福,不会有别的选择 。

我们修改完善香港选举制度,主要是要落实“爱国者治港”这一基本原则。这不是新的要求,这是邓小平先生在香港回归前就提出来的,也是基本法所要求的。爱国者治理也是世界通行的政治伦理和普遍实践,包括美国。一个连自己的国家都不爱、不效忠、还要搞香港独立的人,怎么能有资格参与香港治理?我相信美国也不会允许不遵守宪法、不热爱和不效忠自己国家的人当议员或阁员。那些反中乱港分子不是什么反对派、“民主派”,他们是分裂分子和暴徒,受到审判是罪有应得。

我们完善香港选举制度的做法得到了广大香港民众的支持。民调显示,超过七成香港居民赞同,还有230多万香港居民联署支持。

森:我下面想问关于台湾的问题,您也知道拜登派遣了一些前议员和前政府官员,包括一名前议员和两名前国务院的官员,就是所谓的一个“低级别代表团”访问台湾。而特朗普政府曾派了现政府官员去台湾。外界分析认为,拜登想要借此既表现对台湾的支持,又不想惹恼中国,您对此怎么看?

乐:台湾问题涉及中国的核心利益。中国政府在台湾问题上没有任何妥协的余地和退让的空间。我们坚决反对任何形式的美台官方往来,无论是低级别还是高级别。美国不要打“台湾牌”,这是一张危险的牌。一个中国原则是中国的红线,我们绝不允许“越线”行为。

森:美国有很多人猜测中国可能会比预期更早把台湾重新纳入大陆治下。中方是否有台湾回归的时间表?

乐:中国国家统一是不可阻挡的历史进程和大势,任何人、任何势力都阻挡不了。我们永远不会允许台湾独立,中方维护国家主权、安全、统一的立场坚定不移。我们愿尽最大努力争取和平统一的前景,同时不承诺放弃其他选项,任何选项都不排除。

森:也就是说在台湾回归方面,中方并没有时间表,当前这个情况可以持续很多年?

乐:这是一个历史进程。

森:下面我想转到南海问题上,这个问题也是存在多年了,而且是有起伏的。最近我们也听到了菲律宾关于与中国的争议岛屿问题提出了一些抗议,美方也表示了对菲方的支持。我今天主要想问的并不是针对菲律宾方面,我想问中国和美国的海军或者海警船能否同时在南海存在?美方在这里的军舰存在了很长时间,中方是否认为美方必须离开南海?

乐:首先,南海距离美国本土有7000多英里,但对中国来说是家门口。美国大老远跑到南海来,而且还开着军舰、战机,带着武器。据统计,过去一年美国向南海派出军机约4000架次,军舰130多艘次。美国到南海来干什么?南海这个地方本来风平浪静,偏偏美国在这里不断地炫耀武力,兴风作浪,制造事端。南海正常航行与飞越不存在任何问题。至于美国能不能来南海?我给你打个比方,你家门口的路通常行人可以来来往往,但是如果有人在你家门口拿着武器耀武扬威,秀肌肉,甚至还向你家里窥探张望,长期逗留不走,那就是一种挑衅、一种骚扰、一种威胁,当然遭到坚决反对。所以关键是在这里干什么,而不是能不能来。

美国不是南海问题的当事方。中国正与东盟国家通过外交渠道推进“南海行为准则”磋商。希望美国能够多做有利于地区稳定的事,不要挑衅、挑事,这很容易导致“擦枪走火”,引发不必要的麻烦。维护海上安全符合中美共同利益,中美可以就海洋开发与保护等开展合作。

森:但是从美国政府的观点来看,中国在南海搞了很多基础设施建设,填海造陆等,美方认为这是挑衅行为,中方作何回应?

乐:南海岛礁是我们的固有领土,我们在自己的岛礁上修建设施,改善当地条件,便利船只往来,保障航行安全,这些都是正常的,无可厚非。

森:我想回到比较宏观的问题上。在过去的10年、20年乃至40年期间,中国的国际地位发生了很大的改变。不管是在军事上还是在经济上,实力都有了很大的增长。您如何看待今后中国外交政策的走向?中国外交的目标是什么?

乐:今年是中国共产党成立100周年。众所周知,中国共产党始终致力于为中国人民谋幸福、为人类进步作贡献,始终奉行独立自主的和平外交政策,致力于维护和促进世界和平与发展。和平发展是中国外交的基石,已写入中国的宪法。近年来随着中国的快速发展,中国国际地位、国际影响力不断提升,也给世界带来了更多机遇,作出了很多贡献。但是不管中国如何发展变化,中国独立自主的和平外交政策不会变,不称霸、不搞扩张、不干涉别国内政的外交方针不会变。我们的确比过去富了、强了,但我们富而不骄、强而不霸。我们不认为国强必霸,但我们坚信国霸必衰。

中国的发展不是为了超越谁、取代谁,也不是为了和谁争世界老大,而是为了让中国人民过上更好的日子,为了推动构建人类命运共同体。中国的发展会为世界带来更多机遇,创造更多合作机会,为世界稳定作出更大贡献,注入更多正能量。

中国作为第一个在《联合国宪章》上签字的国家,坚定捍卫以联合国为核心的国际体系,捍卫以《联合国宪章》和国际法为基础的国际秩序。拜登政府说美国将重回多边主义,我们希望美方坚持真正的多边主义,而不是搞小圈子。多边主义应该是包容、合作,而不是排他、对抗、分裂。世界上有190多个国家,搞“四边机制”、七国集团或十几个国家的同盟,这不是多边主义。多边主义应是全球性的,包括世界所有国家。面对疫情等一系列严峻挑战,我们要营造全球合作的大气候,而不是拉帮结派的小圈子。

森:随着世界形势发生变化,今天您愿意跟我们分享新的外交政策或思路的转变吗?

乐:在结束今天的采访前,我想与你分享四点体会和感受:

第一,中国未来发展前景看好。我们颁布了“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标纲要,已经绘制了中国未来5年和15年国家发展的宏伟蓝图,我们将致力于高质量发展,致力于构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。这就意味着中国将更加开放,将在更大范围、更宽领域、更高水平对外开放,将为世界各国提供更多发展机遇,更大的市场选择和更加广阔的合作前景。

第二,关于中国外交,我们主张推动构建人类命运共同体,推动构建相互尊重、公平正义、合作共赢的新型国际关系。其中很重要的是相互尊重、平等相待。我们认为在国际大家庭当中,每个国家都是平等的,没有哪个国家可以高人一等,高高在上,更不应该把其他国家分成三六九等,贴上“威权国家”“失败国家”甚至“无赖国家”等各种标签,这都是不允许的,也不符合主权平等的原则。中国对世界各国一视同仁、平等相待。我们对他国既不仰视也不俯视,而是平视。

第三,中美关系要拨乱反正。拜登政府正面临一系列国内问题,特别是抗击新冠疫情和促进经济复苏。要解决这两大问题,没有一个合作的、健康的中美关系是难以想象的。我多次说过,中国不是美国的对手,更不是敌人,而是美国的抗疫队友和发展伙伴。美国不能把队友当对手。尤其在当前面临疫情挑战的形势下,中美只有携手合作,才能共克时艰。

最后还想对你们记者提一点希望。希望你们能够向世界更多展示一个真实的中国和中国共产党。为什么讲这个,就是因为我发现一些西方记者不负责任、昧着良心对中国进行攻击抹黑。他们用“灰黑滤镜”丑化中国、用“移花接木”歪曲中国、用胡编乱造抹黑中国,结果就是误导民众,毒化舆论,甚至还会把决策者带进沟里,给世界带来灾难。我刚刚提到的伊拉克战争、叙利亚战争都是教训,不能让悲剧重演。你们应该学习你们的前辈——美国记者埃德加·斯诺。他在中国革命异常艰苦的时期,克服困难深入到中共中央所在地陕北地区进行实地调查采访,和中共领袖毛泽东、周恩来以及红军战士、当地老百姓结下深厚友谊。他的报道向世界展现了真实的中国共产党和中国红军。我希望你们都成为新时代的斯诺,多深入了解中国,把一个真实的中国和中国共产党展现给世界。

谢谢。

来源时间:2021/4/18   发布时间:2021/4/18

旧文章ID:24812